Will India Employment Based Dates advance aggressively? **Good News** transcript

Hello friends, Mandar here. I'm back with another video. Now, it seems like the worldwide green card pause does not really have a time limit. Although it started as a temporary thing, they haven't specified how long this is going to last. And that got me thinking that what if the worldwide pause in green card issuance at the consulates and it being indefinite ends up creating one of the biggest spillovers from family-based to employment-based in the fiscal year 2027.

Good, as per the popular opinion, this would be the biggest spillover since the pandemic. And could that result into a meaningful forward moment for EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 India, and China, and other backlog countries in October and early part of the fiscal year 2027. And this is what I'm going to calculate in this video and give you the outcome. >> [music] >> So, you may be wondering why am I making another prediction video.

And actually, the simple answer is the situation is changing by day. The worldwide pause in the green card issuance at the consulates now appears to be open-ended. They haven't given a end date. My speculation was because it was training, it would be a 1-week or 2-week affair at the most. I still love that it will remain permanent, but even if it continues for the next couple of months, it could have a big positive impact on employment-based immigration.

Now, another thing is that USCIS has recently released the monthly and the quarterly inventory data that gives us some good insights into how many applications they are getting and how many they are processing. I'll go into those details. This data gives us insight into the month-to-month issuance of the green card numbers in the employment-based section and allows us to make an informed decision. While this is still speculative, it is much more relied on the data.

In the last couple of videos, I received a lot of backlash because of my conservative estimate of the number forward movement. Now, this was based on the understanding that the 75 country ban has been lifted and then the worldwide pause is going to be limited or temporary. But anyways, now that it's unpredictable, we can make some optimistic scenario and that's what I'm going to do in this video. And let me be very clear, based on some of the comments that I have seen on my previous videos, and I also want to clarify that I do not make my prediction based on somebody else's videos or somebody else's analysis.

I do not do that. I also don't use AI. I don't use Gemini or ChatGPT, especially for this effort. I use the data that is available on the USCIS pending inventory. I do my own calculations and reach my own conclusions. Nobody can predict the Visa Bulletin with certainty. All we can do is educated guess and a reasonable projection in terms of what can happen. And then the comments from my previous videos that I'm being too pessimistic are understandable and I understand and I have gone through it myself.

Green card process can be deeply personal and people have been waiting decades, including myself at one point. But my responsibility is not to just paint a rosy picture and give you the most optimistic outlook, but also give you what I actually feel about it. And if the most optimistic scenario plays out, I'm happy to be wrong. But that's what I'm going to do in this video. I'm going to present you the most optimistic scenario.

Let's see what comments I get. Now, we'll make some basic assumptions. We'll assume that this worldwide pause in the green cards at the consulates is going to be indefinite and at or at least for a long period of time. Then we'll calculate how many of those numbers will actually spill over into the employment-based category. I will estimate how many backlog numbers we have from the inventory data for EB1, EB2, or EB3 that could not get a green card in this fiscal year and they are going to use up those green card numbers in the beginning of the next year.

I'll keep the calculation straightforward, not complicated math, just a straight line equation. Here's a pause in the immigration and how it will impact employment based immigration without too much complexity, but with an element of reality. I also want to add that there are lots of opinions out there about how much of positive impact this pause in the immigration green cards worldwide is going to have on the employment based immigration sector.

Some are quite optimistic, but somebody like Charlie Oppenheim, who was the Visa Bulletin director about almost about 2 years back, says it will still be going slow. Well, I think he did not consider about this worldwide ban. With that said, let's first begin with the numbers. And before that, I just want to clarify one more thing that some people commented that the consulates were shut down. That is not the case. Only the immigration visas or the green card issuance at the consulates worldwide has been stopped or paused.

All the other visas are still being given out. So, consulates are not closed. That's what I wanted to clarify. Now, to get started in a nutshell, we need to answer nine questions specifically. The first question being Now, to see how the worldwide pause positively moves the dates for employment based green cards, we need the below nine points to be answered at a high level. Okay, the first one is how many numbers will be unused from 75 country ban since January to August because in August the judge vacated this.

So, now those countries are back into getting the green cards. And then the answer to that question is 59,000. We calculated that in in-depth detail in one of my other videos. So, I'm going to round that figure up to 59,000 visas. Okay, the second question that we need to answer is how many numbers will be unused from the worldwide green card pause at the consulates since last week. Say August 21st. Let's assume that it was paused on August 21st.

Now, here's what I found out. Total number of green cards processed on an average all consulates around the world are around 280,000. Now, this number also includes not just the cap, but also non-cap. So, since the pause, which we'll assume started around August 21st until September 30th, that's what we need to calculate that time frame. So, let's add another week's worth of green card issuance, which brings the total to 35,000 visas.

So, let's say worldwide within the 5 weeks, if the pause was not there, there would have been 35,000 more green cards issued worldwide consulates. Okay, so we got those two numbers. Now, the third one is what is the rate at which green cards are issued at the consulates worldwide for family-based from the total. Now, this is slightly different. We are trying to answer on an average. So, 92% of the total family-based number, so 92% of 226,000 is 207,920 go to the consulates.

Although total family-based is around 28,000 per month, we want to be most optimistic and so why not, right? What is the rate at which So, we just answered this question. What is the rate at which the green cards are issued within the country for family-based, which is through adjustment of status, approximately or less than 8%, so which is about 1,500. Approximately about 8% of 226,000, which is about 18,000 for a year, which is about 15,000 per month.

So, it's not that much. So, even with the pause, there will still be about 2,000 visa numbers that will be issued within the United States, which is a meager number compared to the total that we'll be getting. Now, another question based on the above, what could be the spillover? Now, I'm going to be very, very optimistic here. Let's say that USCIS forgot that there were 59,000 green cards that were available throughout those 75 country ban.

So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to take that number as it is, 59,000, and 35,000 from this pause worldwide in green cards. So, that total brings to 94,000 in the most optimistic scenario. Maybe maybe a bit less. Okay, so 94,000 spillover. Keep that number in mind. And that is not the final number. So, we are going to calculate what are the deductions from them. Remember how we file taxes? We have the highest number and then we start deducting.

So, let's say the most optimistic figure is 94,000 spillovers. Okay, now what needs to be deducted? How many green cards for FY 27 for employment-based category? Okay. So, that will mean if we say 94,000 we spillover is going to be there. So, 94,000 plus 140,000, which is 234,000, which is unheard of. Okay, but why not? We are just doing the optimistic scenario, right? Everybody likes it. What is the pending inventory for EB1, EB2, and EB3?

Now, this is from the inventory data that I saw and I everybody can see. These are the charts that I'm showing from the pending inventory. As you can see that there is an inventory data from say June, July, August, 3 months of inventory data that I went back with and then I calculated how many pending numbers are there that were not given the visas because of the lack of visas in employment-based section. So, those will be the pending applications carried forward from FY 26 to FY 27 who will have the first crack at these spillover numbers.

Right? So, these are the candidates who have gone through the interview, maybe who have gone through the final stage, they they some of them have already received the medical RFEs. The officer was about to adjudicate the cases, but they exhausted numbers. So, what are those numbers? Those numbers are EB1 pending inventory is 13,455. This is clearly in the inventory data. You can go look up. EB2, it's 24,938. And EB3 India, 14,368.

So, the total number of pending I-140 approved current priority date and then retrogressed, did not get a green card by the end of 2026, is 52,761. Remember those dates for EB2 India progress to July of 2014 and then retrogressed to September 2013, these are the numbers. 24,938. So, to come back to January of 2015, there is still 24,938 people pending getting their visa number current for EB2 India. So, that has to be cleared first.

Similarly, for EB1 it's 13,455 and EB3 India it's 14,368. So, remember 52,761 needs to be deducted from that 94,000. So, what is the net spillover? In all honesty, you will not see the net spillover effect in October visa bulletin. They will not even know because they are still doing the calculations. Because the numbers will continue to be issued until September 30th and visa bulletin will be published in the first or second week of September.

So, it's too early. So, they are just going to make some speculation. They will not have the spillover numbers calculated into the October visa bulletin. So, keep that in mind. The earliest they will get the spillover data calculated is towards the end of October or early November. So, you will see the actual spillover included into these dates in maybe in November visa bulletin or realistically December visa bulletin.

So, as I said, the net spillover is going to be 94,000 minus 52,761 which is 41,239. Does that make sense to you? Put down in the comment section below. Now, I said there is going to be the whole spillover of 94,000, but then you also want to calculate how many are pending inventory that haven't received the green card. Those will be the first people in the line to get the green card. Even to reach the dates that are shown in the chart in FY2026.

Now, before we go into the charts optimistic scenario chart additional data points. So, here's the last years. So, here's the data from last year FY25 to FY2025 to FY2026 with the spillover of 46,000. Everybody knows that, right? 46,000 plus 140, so we got 186,000 visas this fiscal year 2026. So, how was the how was the chart and how did it progress in October, November, and December? You can see it on the screen. The final action dates for EB1 remain steady at February 2022 right through October, November it only changed to March in December visa bulletin.

Even with those 46,000 spillovers. The filing date, however, progressed because filing date is arbitrary. USCIS can couple of years current or it may make and the entire visa bulletin current. That is really arbitrary. They have full discretion around what they can do with the filing date chart. So, I will I will not speculate too much on the filing chart, but I am focused on the final action chart. So, this is what happened last year which whatever you are seeing on the screen is last year just to give you the perspective with 46,000 spillovers still had slow progress in the dates.

So, final action dates for EB2 progressed from January to April 2013 and they stayed at April and then in December they changed to May of 2013. So, meaningful forward moment only happened in December. And similarly for EB3 the dates progress from May to August of 2013 in October, then remained at August 2013 and September and progressed to September 2013 in December Visa Bulletin. So, what did we learn from the past?

Even with the 46 case spillover, dates did not move significantly as shown above for the final action chart. Example, February to March for EB1, January to May for EB2, and May to September 2013 for EB3. So, there was very few months of progression even with the 46,000 visas. I presented this scenario back to you in a couple of days back and people were very upset with me. Not sure why people were upset, but this was a conservative scenario.

But, I'm going to move on to the most optimistic scenario which you want to see, right? So, most optimistic scenario is on your screen. Assuming all 59K from 75 countries and 35K from the last 5 weeks of worldwide family-based, the total spillover 94,000. Okay, let's say. The spillover will only show up in November or December Visa Bulletin for in the final action chart. Now, here's the chart. EB1 final action chart, what I'm seeing is in the most optimistic scenario, we'll move from October 2022 to April 2022 in October Visa Bulletin.

In November Visa Bulletin, it will move to December 2023 and in December Visa Bulletin, when the actual spillovers come in, there will be jump to June 2024 is the most optimistic scenario. The filing chart, I'm just guessing that they will just move it forward by about a year. Say, December 2023 to 2024 for EB1 filing chart. November, it will stay at December 2024 and December, it will move to January of 2025. That's my speculation.

EB2 final action. Unavailable. Currently unavailable. Remember those 24,000 are still pending. Now, it will move to July of 2014. This is based on the note that we saw in the previous Visa Bulletin that they may progress the EB-2 dates to where they were in the May visa bulletin before they retrogress. So, let's say they move it back to that date. October in the October visa bulletin, they move it to July 2014. November, they move it to August 2014.

And December, when we have the huge spillover numbers actually calculated, they'll move it to January 2015, which will be the clearance of the backlog reaching the filing date chart date. The filing date how they will move for EB-2 is January 2015. They they will move in October visa bulletin, they will move to June 2015. November visa bulletin, remain at June 2015. And December, maybe they will go to January of 2016.

This is filing date. Final action for EB-3, currently it's at January 2014. It will move to July of 2014 in October. November, it will move to October of 2014. And for the December forecast, it will go to January of 2015, which will clear up the backlog is what I'm seeing in optimistic scenario. And filing chart you can read June 2015, June 2015, and March [snorts] 2016. Why not, right? So, this is the optimistic scenario.

Now, what are the assumptions that I made? Again, quickly, I have made big assumptions over here. The 75 country ban is fully lifted. So, although 20 59,000 visas were not allocated, we can assume some of them were used by people in the US. Maybe say 5 10%. Visa appointment cancellations for training purpose, which was supposed to be like 2 to 3 weeks, we will it will probably be 2 to 3 months before it gets shut down by some federal judge.

So, that'll use with additional 35K. And the pending inventory which I calculated EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 totals to 52,761. So, that is what we are seeing. So, out of the maximum 294,000 spillover, 52,000 will be consumed by the backlog. Remaining, let's say 40,000 will be available additionally to 140,000. So, total of 180,000 visas may be available for FY2027 is my guess. Very similar to FY2026. With that said, I don't need to tell you anything more.

You are all tech guys. You have access to AI. Although, I don't use it for this purpose. You can figure out by yourself what dates will progress to in the October Visa Bulletin, October, November, and December Visa Bulletin. Put down in the comment section below if you agree with my optimistic scenario or if you agree with my less optimistic scenario, which was presented in the past. Anyways, this is all speculative.

I'm happy to be proven wrong if the optimistic scenario plays out. Now, let's switch topic. On a totally different note, I have been getting questions regarding 485 supplement J notices that people are getting in the mail. Now, I got at least four or five people reaching out to me and I have read through those notices. Some say the the 485 supplement J has been closed. Now, this is very puzzling. The only and some say that please log in to your USCIS account to see the status.

Okay. So, those are kind of cryptic notices. Doesn't tell a lot. Just gives you some kind of a statement. I wouldn't put a lot of emphasis on this notice for 485 supplement J because it is different than 485. If there was something with the 485, actual 485, I would have been concerned. But, this is 485 supplement J. You can always resubmit. You can always take it along with you at the time of the interview. Whenever you change the job or when if you have to prove that you have a bona fide job offer.

So, those are the two things. So, reach out to me if you have any weird notices that are showing up at at your door and you want my opinion what to do about it. My contact is in the details below. One more thing I came across is when my channel was down, there was really no way for me to reach out to the audience. So, I'm starting a WhatsApp channel. The link is in the description and it's on also on the screen. Consider joining that WhatsApp channel to ask questions, to share information.

I know there is a limit for it, but at least we will have some community going over there. With that said, I hope you like the topic today. I put a lot of effort into this, so please consider that before hitting the like or unlike button. I hope you do hit the like button and I'll see you in the next one. And that brings me to the sponsor of today's video. Have you ever done the Google search of your own name? Look what I have found when I did mine.

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