Bitcoin's Bounce Setup Held: +4% by October 3, 62% of the Time transcript

So we have a lot to follow up there as Bitcoin probably is not putting the high of this rally just yet And also some really really fun stuff right now It's actually where I want to start off the stream because Kalshi markets are suggesting something incredibly interesting and I think that there's an opportunity there In fact, I'll be putting my own money on the line right here and 38 million dollars right now is saying Bitcoin ends the year between 80,000 and 85,000 us highly inflated dollars However, they're giving you six digit Bitcoin by New Year's End a 22 % probability Or at least that is the betting odds as of right now now as we have been going over on this channel There are many setups that do suggest that Bitcoin going above six digits before the end of the year is More likely than not again.

Nothing's nothing is a guaranteed certainty here But you know I'm gonna start off this this stream with a little bit of a different angle and I'm gonna put my money with my Mouth is and we'll go over here to Kalshi and I'm gonna go into the crypto section right here We are going to go to Bitcoin cuz who could fuck gives about any who the fuck gives about anything else? Yes, dyslexia speaking right there. We'll go to annual up to that and of course Bitcoin Price or how high will Bitcoin get this year?

That's what I'm looking for right here 99 oh my god, that just went up a lot. Holy shit before recorded this video I literally just made this like lesson an hour ago That was at 20 cents then it went up to 22 and now it's at 41 cents I'm just gonna bet on this myself, but I wish these were where they were just like a few seconds ago Anyways, I'm gonna bet a hundred buckeroonies on this and by the way I do actually have a shill link for Kalshi in the description below if you trade $50 like literally $50 in the way that you just saw me do right there in fact is to double that at a hundred bucks.

You will get up to $500 in free trading credit. They even have perps on Kalshi now too. I don't really know where they're gonna be going with that, but I don't know, maybe Kalshi becomes one of the big venues coming up here. Anyways, that affiliate link is obviously available for you. It doesn't cost you anything, and it gets you more rewards if you are interested in such things. As always, let's go back on over here, and let's just look at some of the other markets as well.

October hike is at 68 % right now. Zero cuts is at 95%. That is quite interesting. I suppose we'll follow up with that a little bit later, but now I wanna get into the major, major analysis of the day. So if you recall from yesterday's video, we were looking at the daily timeframe playing off of that red five EMA that you see right there. Bitcoin loves to reconnect with that on pretty much each and every closure. And when it disconnects, which we actually saw the day prior on Tuesday, this was where you did not see a touch of that red five EMA on either the low or the high of that daily period.

Well, that begets an extremely likely reconnect within the next one to two days, I suppose, which is exactly what we saw yesterday. In fact, on yesterday's video, we saw it hit precisely that level. And today it has went to a little bit below, yes. But as we said, based off of yesterday's closure above 83, 750, that's very likely an opportunity because this is very much likely to bounce back up towards those highs and probably make some new highs alongside that as well.

So in this case, you can see Bitcoin is still holding above it. And that number is now 84,100, pretty much even actually on the dot. So as long as Bitcoin's above there, I'm looking for this one to trade sideways and up. And we can go reference some stats for all previous times we've seen a disconnect and then the reconnect and what happens after that if we fast forward five, 10, 30 days basically from there. So if you do see Bitcoin hold that line, which yes, we've already seen done, and then within five days, the average return has been about two. spot 8%, that was 64 % of the time in history, but of course this time fulfilling those criteria is much higher probability than that actually.

So just putting that as a number, basically almost 3 % from what was more or less yesterday's low, that put Bitcoin where? That put Bitcoin right around about 86,000 US dollars. Again, there's gonna be some variance around these numbers. Obviously it might be a little bit more, it might be a little bit less, but that's kind of like a good sort of area of interest to be looking for on this rally within the next few days.

Because remember, this is five days from the reconnect, which was yesterday. And if you can hear the thunder outside, it's fucking loud, man. Anyways, if we fast forward 10 days out, those returns go up a decent amount to four spot 3%. On average, the median return I do wanna state is actually somewhat decently higher than that, close to 5%. Again, putting that into context of Bitcoin price action within about 10 days from yesterday's low would put us where?

That put us very early October, like literally the second day of October and about 5 % up puts you where? It puts you at about 87,500 to 88,000 bucks. Again, variance around these numbers, but we have another thing suggesting that in early October, perhaps, we're probably looking at Bitcoin to get back around the current highs of this rally, maybe slightly new highs. And of course, we extrapolate a little bit from there. 20 days out, you are actually looking at a slightly lower return than it's 30 days out, where you start to get to the more fun stuff.

That actually on average has returned almost 10 % in the median, actually again, higher, which is very, very interesting. And we have a lot of sample size here, as you know, I should add as well. We have like, I think 170 on this, yeah, 171. So ultimately, 10 % within about 30 days. That just helps out the overall case, obviously. There's gonna be some zigs and zags between there, but again, just putting that in terms of numbers. that would put Bitcoin back above 90,000 bucks, which would be, you know, I think in some ways a good thing.

But here's the thing. This is within the context, of course, of greater and higher term timeframe set up. So yesterday, if you recall, we went over the two day, 200 simple average set up. And I do think that it's worthwhile to follow up on this as well. And we're going to extrapolate on this to another timeframe as well, which I think just helps out the overall case. You can kind of see how, you know, one thing leads into the next and leads into the next and leads into the next.

It's like fucking domino game. And ultimately the two day timeframe has reclaimed as we went over in yesterday's video, the 200 simple average, which is a white moving average right here. In fact, you can see that the red five EMA and the white 200 simple average are about to cross with each other as well. Assuming that Bitcoin just, you know, doesn't close the next period below today's low, which is 82, 800, which also I should add is, you know, effectively just a perfect retest of that previous high that we saw from May of this year.

You know, this, the swing high, 82, 800. So if you're a line drawer out there in the world, I think that's pretty damn good example of a former resistance becomes current support alongside a major moving average. But when we have seen Bitcoin reclaimed that generally speaking, if you put a gate on that, meaning that's a, you know, you see a reclaim after not being around it for at least two to, I would say six months, probably even better.

You know, generally these have been some pretty nice moves. If I just show you the history of Bitcoin here, obviously, sorry, those green vertical bars do not correlate to what we're talking about right now, just in case you're wondering. But generally, if you fast forward, you know, some time from there, as we'll go over right here, you're, you're usually up. So when you get that first two day, 200, simple moving average reclaim, which we've, we've literally already seen and we're getting a retest as of this morning.

If you fast forward 20 days from that moment, you're typically up with a median gain of just over 19 % with, again, within within about 20 days. Again, that kind of plays very well with the previous setup that we just looked at. And this one would actually be taken from the reclaim right here, which actually happens on a closure about 86, 500. So 20 % up from there puts Bitcoin where that puts Bitcoin back above six digits, again, within 20 days.

Look, to me, that's pretty optimistic. Again, there's gonna be variance around these numbers, duh. Sorry, it's actually 20 days would put us where. That would put us in like middle of October. I think that's very fucking optimistic. I don't think that's gonna happen personally, but I do think it helps out the long -term view of this thing regardless. And by the way, that's happened 100 % of the time that we've actually seen that particular setup.

If we fast forward 40 days, so as returns go up significantly, I would say, to almost 28 % as a median return. And again, this was 100 % of the time, which is rather interesting. It doesn't mean it's always gonna happen, but shit, man. If I'm gonna bid on some, you know, kind of like that, personally, I mean, maybe you think differently, but that would put Bitcoin above about 110,000 US highly inflated buckeroonies. And then of course we fast forward even 60 days, again, still 100 % green in our sample size and up with a median return of over 56%.

I mean, I'm not even gonna do that right here. So that's just gonna go into like full on bull mania, which I actually don't think that is like that it happened before end of year. That's my personal opinion, stats are stats at the end of the day. But like I said, we also now have seen something of great interest here because the five day timeframe, which just closed recently, has reclaimed that same movement, that same major move in average right here as well.

It is now well above the pivot, which is 81,200. And you're gonna see the five EMA cross the upside of the 200 something right there as well, just as an aside. But if we look at the stats pertaining to that, there's actually some. Really really really really really compelling things here to within 20 days. In fact, it usually doesn't give you all that much It you know if you're looking at the average return about two spot three percent the median returns probably about six percent right there Just eyeballing it but that's only 67 % of the time that's a green period so more likely to be green than not and yeah I do think that we will get a green period here And I think that probably this that's gonna be closer to this you know a little bit more muted But again that puts Bitcoin around the current highs if not a little bit higher And then if you fast forward out 40 days to 60 days That's where you start to be extremely green very very very off I mean not very often 100 % of the time in the sample size here, which isn't n equals 15 by the way We have 15 different iterations of this on a higher term time frame compared to the two day Obviously and we fast forward 40 days Then you're looking at an average turn about 21 spot 7 % with the median just below that and 60 days puts you out 20 almost 25 % with the medium return actually slightly higher than that probably above 25 % Then from there, you know things get kind of into a little bit of a lull as I have been saying I think near the end of this year either in October or near the end of this year We're probably gonna get a pretty violent nasty correction I'm talking like 10 to 20 percent down on Bitcoin, but ultimately probably puts in I mean ultimately probably puts Ultimately my opinion is that it's gonna put in a higher loan continue upwards and onwards later on and we get to the 180 day Out from that reclaim, which is basically six months from this would be like late September We're talking about like March of 2027 in fact that is when again It's 100 % green period and all 15 previous examples and the average return is 66 or just over 66 % with the median return You know a little bit less than that You know, so again, I'm getting multiple things here that do suggest Bitcoin is very likely to be up even in the event that you have seen losers, I mean it's It's not really a loss because well even they're fucking gaining as well Anyways, that's kind of the point that i'm making right here We just have more and more information coming in that bitcoin very likely does trade higher We've seen many different setups I'm not going to bring them all up on today's video because that's just gonna make this video like fucking two hours long and that's Just not unnecessary and I have a inkling suspicion that people who typically record very long videos like that are doing it to obfuscate The data and their results, but that's just my opinion.

Maybe i'm just talking shit who knows doesn't matter at the end of the day because Probably no one's fucking listening to the full portion of that anyways cannot a lot of shit in there, right? Anyways, uh, yeah, so moving on from there Uh, we've already gone over this the crowd right here. Uh, that's why I put in my bet like I said Just literally less than an hour ago. That was 22 percent now It's almost double that so uh missed out on a little bit I wanted to do my bet like live on video, but hey, you know, fuck myself my own anger is right there Anyways, what else do we have right here?

Um as we move onwards and forwards Again, you know bitcoin having that reclaim is kind of a big deal You know reclaiming that previous swing high from may in this case the weekly technically is not confirmed above it just yet I do think that it's more or less formality. I think ibit has already confirmed a five and ten day above there So look i'm i'm looking at this as any test down to that number as fair, you know, not necessarily fair game I think that we probably have the low end but that would be okay You know no major issues with this current rally and still likely to trade up and to the right For another extension on this move before the before the big correction, uh is kind of where i'm at right now again I've drawn out the larp lines a few times.

I won't do it right now But uh, let's go ahead and put my money where my mouth is again and buy a hundred buckeroonies of the old coins here On coinbase. Why why am I doing on coinbase? Because as usual coinbase is the cheapest place to be buying spot bitcoins especially with my shill link in the description below. Why is that? Because we partnered with Coinbase and they're giving you 80 % off your spot trading fees.

If you use that link in the description below for Coinbase, it'll also award you 10 % off of your derivative trading fees. And most importantly, I've just gotten word as of yesterday from my representative there, they're gonna be adding options for US fucking citizens in October, most likely. Now, you know, weird things always do happen, but that's the latest information that I've got from them. I think international clients already have access to it.

So fuck you, I'm jealous, but at the same time, congratulations. And ultimately, I'm just extremely excited about this because one, fee discounts, two, I'm gonna be able to have like a regular exchange where I can trade options, which should, oh, nice, we got filled, where we can trade options because they did acquire a derivative which has the most, you know, the most liquidity for options. So that's a big fucking deal.

So I'll have that plus derivatives and spot on the same exchange. I can basically just park my full accounts there and then I don't have to worry about cross hedging on different exchanges because some exchanges only offer options, some exchanges only offer futures or spot. That's just been a major fucking headache in the past year. But in this case, this, in my opinion, is so far the best solution. So I'm really, really, really, really excited to partner with them.

And yeah, again, that affiliate link, that shell link is in the description below. Other than that, we can go ahead and reference perhaps, Oh yes, let's go down to the lower term timeframes while we're here, why not? Four hour time frame, I do want to acknowledge how it's put in some hidden bullish divergence on spot price action already, it's confirmed that. The six hour time frame, I do think is getting ready to follow through here, but four hour time frame, yes, on character cuz RSI.

We already got one drive. You might even consider this one a second drive on today's low. If we go over to the six hour timeframe, similar thing right here. This low from 20th of September on the RO side is much higher than the low that we're seeing right here at about basically this morning's low with a higher low on price action. Again, that actually is effectively your last trending higher low from just over 80,000 bucks.

And by the way, if you're not familiar with trending higher lows or training lower highs, this is a really, really, really, really, really important concept that we talked about on this channel. It is extremely important when it comes to documenting potential reversals and things like this. And, uh, and if you're not familiar with it, you can check it out in the TA one to one program. It's literally fucking free. I have a bunch of free courses in the link description below.

My job is, or my goal is, is to make all my free, uh, free shit way better than people's paid shit because I'm egotistical and I'm just, that's just my fucking goals right now, man. That's just is what it is. So you can find it right there. Of course, you could also check it on the Krown trading bubble. That is a paid program. But again, realistically, it's just not relevant for 99.9 % of people. It is very, very, very, very, very heavy detail.

And ultimately most people just don't even need that. But yes, if you just want to learn about the basics, TA one to one is great. TA foundations as well on YouTube is extremely, extremely basic if you want to start there. Uh, but yeah, that trending higher low now coming in around 80,000 bucks. So even on like a short term timeframe and the way that I look at the six hour, uh, I have no issues with this move at all whatsoever, as long as Bitcoin's above there.

Again, this was a, this was a retracement that we did expect. Um, and now I'm just kind of looking for this one to trade sideways and up from here. So long as Bitcoin's above 80,000 bucks, I got no majors with this, uh, price action at all whatsoever. It might take a little bit of time to get going, but looking for some sideways and up from here and, uh, in some, and, and for some Bitcoin magic to happen. Other than that, um, let's go over to Yes, let's go over to the Revin Ribbons.

I just want to acknowledge again that CME futures continues to remain above the red dots in this first upper band one. So I'm still looking at this range as valid between those red dots and the top side. Now, I don't think we're gonna be, you know, testing the top side again this week. You know, you can basically look at the high of this week is effectively a test of that already. But coming into next week, assuming that Bitcoin finishes this week above these red dots here in upper band one, which is 82, 300 on CME, which traded about 600 bucks above that as of right now, there is a premium over spot price action.

Well, that would open up the door for an extremely likely test back up to the top side of that band, which is more or less 90,000 bucks. That would be a next week thing. Again, if that one holds, we'll know that information for sure by tomorrow, which we'll be doing a live stream on as well. Other than that, I think it's a good place to maybe leave it off on this video. Again, we got Kalshi and Coinbase, links in the description below as always.

And yeah, higher term time firms are seeing more and more things kind of aligned in that same direction. Lower term time firms, even given some short term signals that Bitcoin is finding a low right here. And then Bitcoin does take another step down. I'd be looking somewhere around like 81 to 81.5 region, probably a bounce there at the very minimum. And I'd want to see it in real time after that. Other than that, I still think that all the higher term time from setups are more or less green with each other.

If we fast forward, especially like 30 to 60 days out, things are more likely to be positive from here than not. And then of course, from there, things probably take a cooling off period. And then it is around the sort of six month, the five to six month marker where we start to see these returns go up again, generally from a lot of the sets that we've been looking at. Other than that, I'll update again on tomorrow's live stream.

As always take care, much love and see you hopefully next time.