IT HAPPENS EVERY TIME - Bitcoin Price Chart Always Does This After the Bottom, Altcoin Market & XRP transcript

[music] >> Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today we'll be taking a look over here at the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market as it sits at $2.66 trillion zooming off of that 300 week moving average last week as the price of Bitcoin sits at 79,600 as I'm recording this morning back up near the resistance that we saw back in May.

Very similar to the discussions we've been having for a couple of months now expecting that we would get back up to this region. Now of course it's the big questions of will we get stuck here for some time or will we try to just range here for a minute and then push our way out of it spending maybe a couple of weeks in here while XRP caught a nice pump last week going from about 99 cents up to about a dollar 70. We have been stalled out in here.

Kind of what you would expect if we were going to be stalled here for a minute for the crypto market and have to build a new range throughout here. However, that does seem to have all the signs of what the bottom would look like to zoom its way off that low. One, because we did hit that minimum number that we need in there for on-chain losses right there at 42.5 billion coins in a loss which slightly exceeds what we saw back over in here at the bottom at 42.3 back in 2022.

So we do know we've gotten into the minimum requirement in here of what could mark the bottom. However, of course we've seen other signs in the market like the breadth finally start to open in here in the crypto market after a prolonged bear market just like we saw back there back in 2022 as we went into 2023. The price appreciation of XRP has always been tied to what's going on in macro and in the cryptocurrency market to see the rise happen from 99 cents to a dollar 70 in this environment is exactly what you would expect and the exact things we'd be looking forward to say, "Hey, it seems like the bottom is in." when those on-chain losses have already been hit as well.

So, this thing is probably going to be stuck until the market as a whole is ready to make another move to the upside. Right now, we're going to be stuck in this environment of are we going to be stalled out here and just keep closing weekly candles underneath this level over in here and range out for weeks on end or can we go a little bit faster and just do it for a couple of weeks or so and then try to really push our way out.

But, I think there's still a lot of debate over there on X on whether or not the bottom is in. So, I'm just going to show you this chart and tie in the picture in here of what's going on with Bitcoin. I could make this video go for a very long time going into on-chain data, oversold conditions, how we got here, but I'm going to keep it pretty simple and say, "Look, we've got the opening of breadth that has happened here in the crypto market for the total market cap and for the altcoins.

We also have the break of the RSI, the bullish divergence confirmed down in here where we have a higher low after being oversold just like we did back in 2022 where we finally bust our way out of here. That was in this exact moment right here where I can put that dotted line. We'll put them on the same spot here. Then we'll flip back to the daily time frame, throw back on the breadth, and then we'll see this also was when the breadth opened for the first time to confirm the bottom being in.

So, that's our context. But then we have this lens to look at it through as well. If you remember back in June, I was talking about the death cross is going to be coming in and trying to front run that happening because we typically see X social media YouTube videos glorify it because well, a lot of times videos and content on X aren't really meant to be alpha. They're just meant to get the most amount of views and if the market's in extreme fear, then presenting extreme fear content is going to get a lot of clicks at that time.

So, I tried to front-run that narrative by saying, "Hey, look, here's what ends up happening after we have the death cross happen for Bitcoin, which is when the 50-week moving average crosses through the 100-week moving average." We saw this happen back in 2015, 2018, and 19, and then over in here in 2022. Yet, here we were having it happen again in 2026. But, each time we had the death cross come in, we noticed, "Hey, we were at the bottom of the market." But, here's the kicker.

We can talk all about this bullish divergence confirmation over in here on the relative strength index, or that the breadth has opened for the very first time during this bear market. But, then we can go and say, "Well, what happens with price action when we not only go oversold like we have in every single bear market?" Then, not only when we finally busted out with a bullish divergence to get our way out of here like we just did right now.

We can also look at it to say, "After the death cross has occurred, what did price action do next?" And we can see back in here in 2015, it goes back to the 50-week moving average. Back here in 2019, it goes back to the 50-week moving average. Back here in 2023, we go to the 50-week moving average. And look where we are right now here in 2026, we're back at the 50-week moving average. And I'll zoom in just a little bit to show you that.

There you go, we are at the 50-week moving average just like we were back here in 2023, like we were back here in 2019, and then of course back over here back in 2015. What did it mean after the death cross had occurred and we had gone back to the 50-week moving average in every single environment? It meant the bottom was already in every single time. The reactions at the 50-week moving average were different in every single circumstance.

This one produces a spring without taking out the low back in 2015. Then here in 2018, we struggle here at it, but then it shoots not only through the 50 week, it goes straight through the 100 week. Then over here in 2022 and 23, it struggles at it for about eight weeks, then it finally breaks. It gets stuck between the 50 and the 100 week for about 6 months, and then finally busts its way out of there and keeps going.

But every time we have the death cross occur and we get back to the 50 week moving average, it implied the bottom was already in. So we can look at breadth, we can look at bullish divergences happening on the relative strength index and those confirmations of breadth and the confirmations of the bullish divergences, but we can also even see other arbitrary things like a 50 week crossing through a 100 week moving average, and by the time we get back to the 50 week moving average, what did it imply?

It implied the bottom was already in. The reactions at the 50 week moving average were different every single time. 2015, which was 11 years ago, had a deeper pullback but maintained its low. 2019, it just stayed there for about four or five weeks and busted through. 2023, we stayed for about eight weeks, then we gave this big banking scare and this de-banking thing happening, and then the very next week it busted through and got through.

But it always implied the bottom was in, and so we can look at all these different things and say, "Well, we should be at the bottom." And then we got our bullish divergence and we confirmed it, right? Like we do in every single time. But then of course when we get back here, right? How can you argue from based on any other past market cycle that the bottom wasn't already in? We've hit on-chain losses, we've hit technical levels, we've created bullish divergences, we've opened breadth, and now we're back at the 50 week moving average.

I think what everybody would like to hear is how long will it take. Unfortunately, that answer isn't there. It's unknown if we'll have to be stuck here for some time right now or if we'll just range for a short period of time to bust its way through. I personally would take any of them. But of course, what I see out there on X is people saying, "Well, we're back at the 50 week moving average, it's going to be a problem.

Well, it's like well, let's put it into context. Why are we at the 50-week moving average and what happens when we get back to the 50-week moving average? Sometimes you can get a deeper pullback, sometimes you can get really barely any pullback at all, sometimes you can get a quick pullback that busts its way through. But what does it always imply after the death cross, after the oversold conditions, after the breadth has already opened, the bottom's in, right?

And so that's kind of been kind of the theme that I keep kind of reiterating here for this past week or two is that will we have corrections in this market? Absolutely. Will there be liquidations to the longs in this market moving forward? Absolutely. Will there be people scared moving forward? Absolutely. However, whenever we have this type of setup in this type of environment, of course those pullbacks have always just been corrections within bullish trends now.

As we know, we have a stock market in an entirely different environment than we did back in 2022 and 2023 where breadth was struggling tremendously as the crypto market was stuck near the lows. So it's hard to say that's going to repeat that. You know that people are going to use that as their modeling moving forward, that all we got to do the same thing. Problem is you don't have the same macro condition. The thing that I did complain about all of 2023, 2024, 2025 is that there was a problem in macro, which isn't there right now.

In addition, we do have the IGV pushing higher, which we tracked throughout this whole thing, watching for a little sweep of liquidity down at the lows, massive volume, and then of course pushing our way back up. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if we do actually see some struggling take place right here and this ranging does continue for the IGV. I think this was actually a short squeeze that happened in here that otherwise probably wouldn't have happened if there was probably some shorts that got blown out, but it is once again, of course, happy or exciting to see that it is still cooperating.

And we believe we talked about this a week or two ago that I did think we were still going to push higher in the IGV. And but we do have to say ah, there's probably going to be some struggling that happens in here before it does eventually escape. And the correlation between IGV and the crypto market has been tremendous for the last several years. So, of course, waiting for an expansion to take place in IGV or tech software sector is something we're probably still going to be waiting on.

Uh we'll just have to kind of wait on this, but obviously it is still cooperating. It has exceeded all of the retracement levels, so it tells me it is still marching to the upside. It's not being rejected. Does not mean that it's not going to range. It absolutely could see a lot more ranging and building and happening and things happening like that. Uh but obviously we're not rejecting here at these retracement levels, and so that's a good thing to see.

Just typical ranging stuff as we're trying to climb a wall of worry in here. So, the moral of the story, of course, is we have all the confirmations that we look for for a bottom. The 50-week moving average is not something to sit here and say, "Oh, the bear market might not be over because we're back at the 50-week moving average." No, you can clearly see it. We always get back to the 50-week moving average after going oversold, after producing bullish divergences, and after death crosses.

This is where we go to. The reaction at the 50-week is different each time, but show me a circumstance where we should be sitting there and saying, "Oh, we're back at the 50-week, the bear market's going to continue." And if anyone is going to use this as the example or this is the example and say we're here because that's the same example, no, it's definitely not because at this point we had not gone oversold yet. And at this point we had not gone oversold yet, nor had we broken through the 100-week moving average in either one of these.

That was this moment back here. Then we break through the 100-week, and then we go oversold. And being back in here, back in March of 2022 or back in here in July of 2018, we had not come close to hitting the on-chain losses yet here in July of 2018, nor had we over here in March of 2022. That's like saying this moment in time right here with those on-chain losses being at those levels, which we can clearly see. This is right here hitting the 50-week moving average before we capitulate.

Then we go on and hit 10.8 million, 10.6 million, 10.5 million. Using July of 2018 or March of 2022, we can just even see it on chain. They're not the same in that this 50-week revisit is prior to the break of the 100-week and prior to the capitulation happening in the market, which we saw even in our own market cycle here in 2026. So, does this revisit of the 50-week in any way mimic the 50-week revisit back in 2022?

No, it's just like if any deep corrections come, it's like a glorious opportunity because sometimes you don't get any of them at all. And the fact that you're even here watching this video at this phase of the market being right in here. I mean, I remember being in the 2017 bull market in 2018 and thinking to myself, man, dude, I wish I was here to be able to buy the market back in here. I remember thinking that very clearly.

And then I you know, going through all that, feeling the terror for the first time of a full-blown bear market for Bitcoin, and then getting in here and being like, hey guys, if you wanted to know what that felt like, you're living in it right now. We're in that again, right? Like you wish you were buying Bitcoin and stuff right in here to be able to take part in a bull run, right? To get these rides up. This is what it feels like every single time.

And the crowd is always like this every single time. Fear, lower prices, all that stuff. And so, it's just an exciting time in the market. I do get it. Not everybody's psychology has flipped over just yet. And I definitely don't want to present any type of illusion that I think we're mooning to unfathomable prices like relatively quickly. I'm just trying to present it, hey, here's the really clear picture. This is what usually happens when the environment is like this.

Sometimes we stall out in here. Sometimes we can get out of here relatively quickly. The reality of XRP is it's probably going to take some time for market conditions to allow it to move. That's what has happened on every single move. And it's even what happened here off the low. This isn't some utility driven pump or something like that. No, this is the whole market moving. This is the breadth opening throughout the whole market, and when the breadth opens, XRP's price moves, and of course happens after hitting 42.5 billion coins at a loss.

That doesn't mean it's going to the moon immediately, nor does getting back to the 50-week moving average imply that we're going to the moon immediately. It's usually a process we have to work out, but it does say historically, you death cross, you're oversold, you bullish divergence, you hit the 50-week, you're past the bottom, guys. That's not for debate. That's not an opinion. That is a statistical fact. And meanwhile, we have macro cooperating like we've needed it to be able to cooperate.

Doesn't mean that it's ready to go busting out and zoom its way up in here. There could still be more struggling, but these things that we've argued for months on end, uh they're all coming to fruition, and uh these are all signs of what we've historically seen once we've gotten past the bottom, and so patience will be the name of the game in here to see how this thing kind of manifests itself at this 50-week moving average and back at this resistance level.

And but we've got those signals that we need for the bottom. And for that, it's exciting, and I'm I'm much more looking forward to what this cycle can look like compared to the last one because we do have these different elements happening in macro that were otherwise a major struggle for us during the last cycle. So, just thought I'd point that out to you guys again. We go through the death cross, we get back to the 50-week, we do it every single cycle, and it always gets there.

And well, we've done it this time, and here we are. And it happens after we've gone oversold in every single cycle. So, it's an exciting time in the market. Doesn't mean things happen quickly, but it is historically meant a change of regime. So, it's exciting to be here, guys. I hope you enjoyed this content. We've gone through this whole bear market together. We've shown the accumulations happening down in there, and now we're getting our confirmations, and it's very normal that people are going to present arguments that we haven't reversed because we expected there would be a sentiment problem, and that there would be a lot of offsides that would happen in this environment.

We know there's been a lot of offsides. I saw polls being run prior to this thing taking off of, you know, what comes next, 60,000 or 70,000. And 75% of people thought the price was going to go down the day before the thing actually took off. So, you know, we're not going to sit here and create hype and create FOMO, but we're going to present data like we typically do and and present the arguments. And I'm trying to keep it as factual as possible, removing as many opinions as possible.

And that strategy has seemed to work very well. So, we'll keep doing that and otherwise, enjoy your weekend, guys, right? It's a new regime. We're in a different phase of the market. It's exciting. So, all right, I'm going to wrap it up, guys. Check out the newsletter over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. There will be another one posted here in the next few days as we're approaching the end of the month. This most recent one has a 39-minute audio recording.

I do record all of these after putting them together. It's called looking towards recovery and the token hunt begins. Of course, this is before the takeoff happens. Uh technicals, on-chain, and crypto adoption are quietly winning, and which tokens capture the economic activity. There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com, or you could just go directly within your browser.

Otherwise, guys, that's going to be it for this one. Have a wonderful weekend and I'll catch you up with you next week. Thank you so much for watching. If you could, please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you could be notified of when I create new content and when I go live. As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial advisor, but if you ever need a pick-me-up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the Blockchain Backers got your back.

Have a good one. >> [music]