Did Gold Just Show What's Next for Bitcoin? transcript

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All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and welcome to the week. Welcome to Monday. Bitcoin managed to close a weekly higher high candle. So that is good. And confidence is growing that we are indeed in a new cyclical bull market targeting perhaps as high as 300K in 2029. That would be pretty wild, wouldn't it? The story is not the same for gold, however. Gold just failed a daily cycle, which sets it up for a left translated weekly cycle and a decline into not only the weekly cycle, but the 4year cycle low, aka the half cycle low in the 8year cycle.

I made a good case back here that I didn't think the sentiment matched for this and we had to respect a couple of breakouts. Had to try to play a daily cycle in case it was going to do this. But the market has spoken and we are now in intermediate decline of less translation on about week seven here which puts an opportunity sometime late this year for allocation to the metals and the miners. So in the meantime, it should be a case of something like this and then off we go.

I hope what's even more interesting to me is if we can continue to blow off in the stocks that syncs up the four year lows with the stocks and gold, which does make me wonder if this whole thing may turn out to be a head fake and then this thing sinks up as well. I don't want to assume that for now. For now, I want to assume that Bitcoin is about to throw up some sort of higher low in that same sort of timing window and then go.

And as frustrating as it might be right now, I know I'm certainly frustrated. Risk management is what keeps you in the game long enough to catch the big moves. So it looks like we got a bit more suffering in the short term, but hopefully we should soon be able to get behind a nice big turn. The more these lows look to come up to sink as well, the more I would be thinking we can use some of the price action in the likes of say the gold or stocks to start to deduce what we can expect from Bitcoin.

Speaking of what we can expect from Bitcoin, I found this right Bitcoin on the left here and Nvidia here. 680 oddk in no time in practically a straight line. Could we see something like this? I would argue probably not. Now, there is this short-term fractal here, which again is Nvidia and Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin about to do something like this? Don't get me wrong, I'm here for it, but I don't think so. And the primary reason I say that, as with any data, if you torture the data hard enough, you will indeed get it to say anything.

But when I just overlay these two charts, Nvidia in blue, Bitcoin and the candles, the divergence is clear. We've clearly been in four-ear cycle decline for Bitcoin. And now we're attempting here to print the first true higher high followed by a higher low pullback and off we go. I'm sure this thing is probably using some sort of offset for Nvidia, but to me the correlation is quite clear here and it clearly broke during Bitcoin's 4year cycle because the 4-year cycle is the driving force behind Bitcoin.

The semiconductors though do seem to be ready for a new high. They have truly bottomed here and therefore we should be able to get a continuation of upside for the semis. The mags is a similar story and if semis and mags are going to run higher to me that gives me increased confidence that we'll continue to see something like this that extreme right translation in the stock market and notice how everyone is saying bond yields to the moon at the moment but as we've been talking about for a long time on this channel we're in the neighborhood to start to see tops come in for the cycles.

The question then remains, do we just get some kind of shallow weekly cycle decline and then off to new higher highs or are we about to see the top here with the yields heading down into note the window? Okay, December to February. Lots of assets and their cycles are coming together. They're starting to sink up for that kind of December to February time frame. When you get sinking of cycles, it's normally a very powerful indicator of what is to come.

Keep in mind yields topping like this means bonds about to rally. that makes sense from the TLT seven and a half year cycle and if bonds are going to rally as we've got gold heading for the lows as we've got the stocks putting in a blowoff top and then crashing down we can kind of do that thing where we say show me the charts and I'll tell you the news right we can deduce that in the coming months there will be some kind of narrative there'll be something that the average investor latches on to as an explanation behind these forces that are driving the cycles but remember as we often say the cycles are in control and it's the narrative that comes after the cyclical price action.

So, we can say now based on the cycles sometime around probably November or December, there will be something most investors become extremely concerned with. So, we'll see what happens from the stocks. I haven't checked the futures yet. We'll take a look. Seems like they're more or less holding up at the moment. The US 100 position again, more or less holding up. We've had a good move off the lows, so a bit of digestion makes sense, but we're still relatively early in the daily cycle, so I think we can continue to push.

Gold and silver have failed their daily cycle. Here we go. So this is now left translated in the weekly cycle. Don't need this anymore. And we are now in this process of intermediate decline. Probably copy and paste a couple of these across. Something like this I should think. And I drew this for the members this morning and said this is probably going to be the bull market breakout level. Okay. I would expect this to be the level at which price is contained beneath until we reset this cycle and then it should be time to go.

I don't think we need this yellow squiggle anymore. I think this is going to play out more from sort of here now. And we were saying the sentiment didn't seem to match back here. that's now been confirmed by the market. And the thing to watch out for is that sentiment should get extremely negative into these lows and most people won't want to buy them. So in here, they were sort of saying, "Oh, I told you so. You missed the move.

We missed the bottom." Blah blah blah. The boat's left without us, whatever it is. And then when we get down here, should we do something like this, which is the most probabilistic outcome now based on the cycles, we should therefore see the sentiment reach an extremely bearish zone, similarly to what we've got on the TLT trade at the moment. Right? TT is extremely bearish sentiment wise. is just about to touch that 78 level as of today that we've been talking about. 78 to 80 for a bottom.

And notice how the weekly cycle is getting ready to turn as is the monthly with bullish oscillator divergence. So, a lot of these cycles are sinking up as I was saying earlier. Meanwhile, the leadership such as semis and the mags is continuing to push higher, which tells me the stock should be bullish for a little while longer. And then Bitcoin seems to be in some sort of daily cycle decline here. Once we've got a new daily cycle in and confirmed, we'll be able to affirm this count because I'm a little bit suspect of this current count.

I've shifted it around a few times. I'm not really happy with what I've got, but I'm more happy with this than I have been with the previous counts. So, the symmetry seems to be here. And if we can't get a new high sort of imminently, then it's entirely possible this whole thing will have to get shrunk down a bit like this. And then again, we're still looking for a major pivot around the same time as all the other cycle lows.

It's just with Bitcoin. I'm kind of working under the assumption that it might be a higher low here instead of a new lower low. But at the same time, given that gold just failed its cycle, gold is now perhaps showing us the way. And I would not at all be surprised if we end up having a new lower low in here. I don't want to call for it now. I want to be bullish because we got the higher high. and I want to be able to flip based on that higher high to bullish bias because if you don't and you just kind of dogmatically stick with a it's going to print a lower low type attitude, then that typically is how you can end up getting completely locked out of bull moves.

So, I don't want to do that. I want to be bullish here until proven otherwise. And if instead of forming as a higher low here, it does come down and sweep the lows in hindsight, we'll be able to say, well, yeah, I think that makes sense based on how sentiment didn't really match and that kind of thing. But in either case, there is going to be a tradeable low sometime towards the end of the year for all of these asset classes now.

And apart from Bitcoin, I expect significant lows on the rest of the charts. Bitcoin, like I said, we're going to hope for a higher low here, but if we get a lower low, doesn't really make any odds to us. People asking me to cover oil, so we quickly do that. I think it's leaving behind a daily cycle low here, and we'll probably get some more chop and consolidation, but the call is still for it to move down here somewhere.

And again, notice the low timing, right? That puts oil also in sync with the rest of these asset classes. So again, show me the charts and I'll tell you the news. There is some news coming sometime in here. I don't know what it is. I'm not going to try and guess. Frankly, I don't even care what it is. I'm just letting you know ahead of time. There will be something that investors become pretty concerned with based on the cycles.

So, I'm your boy Camel. Welcome to the week. Welcome to Monday. Click here in about 10 seconds if you want to get the indicator or level up your edge. And I'll see you tomorrow. Until then, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye. finance. He's the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian stream. Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the key ride.