Conviction MATTERS From NOW ON for Bitcoin Price Chart, XRP & Altcoin Market, More Bottom Markers transcript

[music] >> Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today, we'll be taking a look over here at the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market along with the Bitcoin price chart as Bitcoin sits back at 78,500 as I'm recording this morning with the total market cap of crypto at 2.62 trillion. XRP at about a dollar 38 as we get ready to close out the month.

And yesterday, we just got another weekly candle close and today we'll be getting our monthly candle close coming off of really the exact same environment that we had at the end of 2022 when January of 2023 kicked in after we already had the monthly MACD break through the signal line or cross through zero in here and that marked our literal low of FTX back in 2022. And of course, as we crack through it down in here, Michael Saylor selling the bottom, all that good stuff.

And it's a very exciting time because as these weeks keep closing out, we just keep solidifying these confirmations that the bottom of the market is behind us. With it being the last day of the month, I just published my end of month newsletter. It's actually quite a long one. It's 48 minutes long with the audio recording. The wait is over. Confirmation has arrived. Breadth, momentum, on-chain, and historical signals all do this when the bottom is in.

Last week, we talked about how when we have a death cross happen here on Bitcoin, we always see this by the time we get back to the 50-week moving average. There can be various different struggles that happen there at that 50-week moving average, but in the end, coming off of this environment and entering into here, it all signals that the bottom is behind us. The same thing goes for whenever we have our first triggering of breadth start to show up here in the market.

It signals that we're beyond the bottom. and while we've really followed all the structural ideas to believe that the bottom was in. And so, as we get ready to head into September, and as I was walking around the kitchen, and as my wife always hears me talking to myself, she loves to interrupt me and say, "What?" Knowing dang well that I'm practicing things that I'm probably going to say before I come on to the YouTube video.

And the the main theme of really what I'm just talking to myself about is conviction. We're at a point in the market cycle where everything that is triggering and everything that happened leading up to these triggerings imply the bottom is behind us. But, for those who have followed this channel for a long time, you know a very popular term we love to reference to is the wall of worry. And I think the number one job of anybody who's a participant in this market is to really spend some time building your conviction right now.

I don't think anybody should be depending on what an influencer says, a YouTuber, a Twitter personality, or believing in dates, or believing in any opinions of anybody, because right now you could just completely put all of your attention onto the data, looking at breadth, looking at divergences, looking at confirmations happening throughout the market, looking on chain, and you will be met with unequivocal evidence that what we have done here in this market is exactly the same of what we've done at past bottoms in the market.

The thing is, with where we are at right now, we've seen a different reaction happen at the 50-week moving average every single time we've gotten back to here in every single environment where we do this exact same thing. We go into oversold conditions, we're able to push through 52, get up here to about 56, 57, 58, 59 on the RSI right as we get back to the 50-week moving average in every single circumstance in here post death cross, and then we kind of have different results, right?

Back in 2015, it becomes of a deeper pull In 2019, there's really no pullback at all. It does stall for 4 weeks before it's able to break out. And over here in 2023, we stall out for about 8 weeks underneath the 50-week moving average. Then we have the banking scare, Operation Chokepoint, all that good stuff, terrifies the market, and then boom, the very next week, it reverses and it goes and it busts right through the 50-week moving average.

So, the the challenge, of course, right here is saying, well, what are we going to do? Are we going to get an opportunity? Are you not going to get one? Are you going to kind of get one right in here for anybody who is maybe sidelined? Or are we going to see a deeper pullback come in here that's going to scare people who potentially bought in at $75 to $80,000 after waiting for Frankly, none of those things really matter.

Either it's going to be treated as an opportunity, or it's just not going to end up happening is the way I'm looking at it right now, because there is no historical reference point for us to look at and say the bottom isn't in when every single one of these things trigger. And so, if we kind of go back to what the market was like back in here when we're doing all this like ABC stuff down in here, I kind of joked about it cuz, you know, there were a couple of comments, people saying, oh, you're just kind of saying the same thing over and over again.

It was kind of like, well, you know, that's kind of what we have to do cuz if we don't do it, what's going to happen? Sentiment's going to deteriorate. And if I don't reiterate the same thing over and over again, uh that could be bad. And then all it took was 3 days and the market just boom, shot all the way back up and now it's been stuck here for what, like 10? But you had to do like 30 days of sideways and stomach through it, tough it out through the sentiment, and then boom, it shoots its way back up.

And I I definitely don't, in this exact moment in time, know if this is going to end up being a longer type of accumulation that happens in here, or if it's just going to keep doing this thing that we've talked about for the last 2 years in here, where we're really just kind of stalled out in a moment right in there getting ready to kind of bust out and continue this march up higher or if it'll take one of these three various shapes and and stalls out happening here at the 50-week.

But the reason I said the repetitive stuff or or sounding like I'm going to be on repeat is because I think right now if you follow data and data only and you don't follow opinions of influencers or timing or social media and you only look at data, it unequivocally says every single time all of these things have triggered the bottom is already behind us, right? We we've seen it all in these indicators already happening here that this is literally the exact time of when we get back to our 50-week every single time in here.

We've seen it on the breadth. We've seen it post death cross. Um, but we did also get one trigger that just happened at yesterday's weekly close. And so I'm going to show it to you actually by looking at the two-week chart because it was yesterday that we finally got to close our two-week candle after coming off of the big move that happened for Bitcoin there here in the second half of August. But we've used this two-week chart several times here on the YouTube channel and over in the newsletter and on X to say, "Look, anytime we have these things happen where we can get the MACD to fall through the zero plane or through the signal line here, it implies that we've already done capitulation." We saw this back in 2014 and 15, then we saw this back over here in 2018, then we saw it happen over here again over in 2022 that we break through the signal line and we've capitulated.

We break through the signal line and we've capitulated. We break through the signal line and we've capitulated. So what we've argued, of course, is that, "Look, we've already broken through the signal line. We've broken through zero and that means we've already gone through capitulation." We're able to argue it by way more than just looking at a two-week chart and arguing, "Hey, look at the MACD." We had all the other things that come with it in a standard bear market, right?

Where it gets trapped there between the 50-week and the 100-week, just like it always does, and then it enters into capitulation down in here, right? We've seen this many times before. This is just how it goes. You break through the 50-week, then the break of the 100-week is where capitulation happens. That's where capitulation happens, and that's where capitulation happens. And then at the same time, of course, what?

You go oversold at that time during the capitulation, oversold during that time during the capitulation, oversold during the capitulation. Every single time, right? It's always the exact same stuff. It was really just kind of a simple, standard, exact same bear market that we saw for Bitcoin. But, we also know this 2-week MACD, once it breaks through the signal line or through zero, that also implies yes, as well. We are beyond the capitulation moment, and we can see that happen in every single bear market.

You know, we've talked about this many times in the past, but why is it important to bring it up right now? Because eventually it has to turn itself back up, right? And we can take a look at the moments when that does, and we can finally see right here, where is the first time we finally get the curl back to the upside, and the momentum starts to swing upwards? Well, we can see in here, by the time that has happened in 2015, the bottom is already in.

We can see that right here, in 2019, by the time that happens, the bottom is already in. And then we can see that over here, in 2023, that by the time this happens, the bottom is already in. So, I'll clean these arrows up a little bit, make them red to say, "Here's where we break down." I'll do that over and over again. And then I'll include black arrows to show right where we finally flip green, which we could see marks every single bottom from each of these past bear markets.

And yesterday, we had our first 2-week candle close into the green, where momentum has flipped back to the upside. Again, we shift out even further in time, getting away from the daily time frame or the 1-week time frame, but then moving to the 2-week time frame, and we now have all the triggers, right? We're not just talking about weekly bullish divergences, we're talking about breadth finally triggering, but we're seeing the indicators trigger the exact same things that have happened after every bear market as well when the bottom is already confirmed.

And the interesting thing about this triggering each time is that if we go back to the weekly time frame, but leave all the dots on the screen, and then throw on the moving averages that we were just looking at, what do we see happens each time? It's the same story. Back to the 50-week moving average. Back to the 50-week moving average. And back to the 50-week moving average. Every single time that it triggers. And so, what I think is going to happen here is if it's going to be anything like the past market cycles and whenever these things actually trigger, it's that a lot of people still just don't really have that conviction at this moment.

And so, my challenge to you is to not place your conviction in anyone else's opinion, but to go dive through the data yourself. Go look at what all the past bear markets have looked like and what happens is already in. And what you're going to find time and time again, whether you're looking at breadth or momentum or indicators or on-chain data, it is all going to mimic that we are beyond the bottom of the market. And the reason why I'm like harping on this so much of being like conviction's going to be incredibly important right now is because when we climb a wall of worry, there is a lot of ranging.

There are a lot of surprises in a wall of worry, but the underlying big picture of it all is that the bottom of the market is in. But, what usually happens is we go through like we like I just said, we spent like you know, 30 days of saying the same thing over and over again. Sentiment deteriorated so bad. So many people got caught off sides. It means you have a very large chunk of people in this market that don't have very strong conviction.

And the only reason why that even matters in the first place is because they all have social media accounts, including the influencers, right? So, we can just be viral and get shared of like, "Don't trust it. See, I told you it's it's going to go down." But, when you just don't trust any of that, you don't Don't even trust my opinion, right? Like, go dig through the data and you're going to see it. And so, for me, it's like we are entering into a new regime.

We clearly have the data to support it. Will dips and liquidations happen in this? Absolutely. And like, I think it's so cliché for influencers to say it because I think it's just a way for people to like hide behind it. Like, if the market goes the opposite way of the way you're thinking, like if you think the market's going to go up, but then it goes down, rather than like being like, "Oh man, I guess I got that wrong." You just It's It's common influencer behavior to say, "Look at this glorious opportunity that's being presented, right?" It's like, "Yeah, but I wanted prices to go up, bro." But, like in this environment, especially while we're still low in here, I do think of it that if any type of dip comes in here, it's got to be something I'm screaming it's like a raging opportunity at this point.

Cuz it's really unknown, too, if we're going to actually get, you know, like a the banking scare type dip to come off of that 50-week moving average or Wyckoff spring to happen in here off of there. Will we just kind of bust through? Will this happen a lot faster and it just, you know, leaves all of that capital behind and then it's going to those capital's going to have to chase higher prices. And I think that's even possible, too, cuz I can I can totally see it being a pain trade for the market to actually go up right now with how offsides the market was there at the low waiting for September to October.

There's a lot of sideline capital. But, the point is whether we're looking at weekly divergences or we're looking at breadth or even looking at larger time frame behavior of a metric that we talked about a lot as we were arguing that capitulation was done and that we were in accumulation down in here. That now we're even past that. Now we're past the point where we've marked the bottom. So, for the coming weeks and months, any type of dips, I'm just going to be sitting here screaming raging opportunity.

You know, these last few years we've just been so hyper-focused on data and looking at things from both sides. And you know, those who are still waiting for 40 to 50k or hoping that you get a new low, there's just no real data to support that you're going to get that. You know, that's that's also let's be real clear, that's not an argument for all the all coins. XRP I think it's probably just going to be ranging in here.

I like on-chain losses, everything hit. That that's highly likely that's the bottom, right? But will it range throughout here for quite some time? That's very possible. We've know that XRP historically only takes off into bull runs and is capable of escaping during moments where there's an expansion in Bitcoin. So that's a that's a story more for like when can alt season actually happen? And we're unfortunately oh quite a ways from something like that.

We would need to see a very quick reaction in here to be kind of screaming that that's like around the corner where we do get like Bitcoin to quickly go and get out of the all-time high. So I I think we could be stuck on some altcoins. But it's real interesting if you're kind of watching everything going on out there in the market cuz there's some altcoins that are very strong and that are holding up very well. And then there's others that just kind of gave it back and like the things that like gave it back really quick, not interesting to me.

But it's it's very fascinating on things like Ethereum which bounced up off of here and they've really it's really just held up in here which is really you know, even what others did which is the total market cap of the altcoin market excluding the top 10. And total and total two. All right, you can pop through things and see things that are holding up well good like Binance Coin and stuff. And like people get so mad at me when I show things that are like underperforming cuz they take it so personal.

But you know, when when a coin does something like this at this point, you know, it makes you kind of question, you know, why aren't you kind of holding that same momentum that the rest of the market is? Or you know, why have you given it all back already? So you can kind of do that by going through the the market and seeing who has held up well and who hasn't. And I think that altcoin dynamic, it's just its own different beast, right?

So, like when we're talking about this stuff, we're talking about the market as a whole. We're talking about the total amount of money in the crypto market. We're talking about Bitcoin. When it comes to like, when are my altcoins going to take off? The very, very honest answer based on historical data is that we have to wait for not just getting through some type of bottoming process or grind back up. We have to wait for like legitimate real euphoria to hit and then at that point, that's typically when the altcoins actually go for real big moves.

Kind of looking for anything else than that than waiting for a euphoric moment or an expansion in Bitcoin. We just don't historically have examples of the entire broader crypto market being able to do anything as a whole, right? We can get individual altcoins, right? You can get like Ethereum or you can get pop or you can get Solana or you can get something like that to go do something. But, really if you're looking for like a big broad-based alt season to happen, we have to kind of enter very specific environments of expansion in the market.

And so, I want to make sure with my words here, we're not talking about every single altcoin or every single speculative altcoin that you bought with a $4 million market cap is going to absolutely perform well. Some stuff is not going to do well. That's just life, right? Like in in 2021, only 20% of the top 100 was capable of setting a new all-time high. In like 2025, it's only like 10%. So, the altcoin market or at least each individual altcoin is not treated equal.

But, when we're talking about like large caps, I think we can kind of bucket all the large caps into this discussion of saying bottom in, right? And of course with Bitcoin, right? And so, on this channel, you know, it's not like Bitcoin is like the biggest holding in my bag, right? But, we use it a lot in this channel because we understand the dynamics of what happens with Bitcoin. It's that we typically need to see Bitcoin be able to perform well in order for the altcoin market to perform well.

It's kind of like this big chain reaction that happens where we have macro cooperation that takes Bitcoin onto a journey and then if Bitcoin proves that it's ready to go on that journey, the altcoin market tends to follow along with it. We get like the big euphoria moment happening in the market. But it would be like if there's a step one and a step two and a step three, everybody cares about step three and they're like, "Why aren't we talking about step three?

Why aren't we talking about step three? I really want to know about step three." And so if we made all of our content focusing on step three and then being like, "Ah, we're just not going to talk about these like they don't exist." The the truth is we do. We have to talk about these. We've got to say, "Look, we need this step, we need this step." And then we get that step right in there, the step everybody cares about.

And frankly, it's the step that I care the most about. But I do know this is part of the step, right? If not step one or step two, is that we have to have Bitcoin in here. And so if you really love step three, right, and alt season or when is my altcoin going to perform well, it takes these steps to happen in here first and that's why we hyperfocus on those until we get there. And so our our main goal, of course, is to try to get to that step right there.

And right now, we're met with the step where we have done everything that has confirmed the bottom in each past market cycle. And we're just kind of left with the typical stuff in here after we've come off the bottom and how quickly can we get back to the top while we're battling against that 50-week moving average. So the regime has changed. We're now into the grind to the upside. The conviction is going to be the most important thing here. reason why I say that is because it was just 2 weeks ago where the market did did not have conviction.

And so when you have that much offsides capital and if this capital comes pouring back in and then there's just kind of like some pullback that happens before the break of the 50-week moving average, there's a lot of screaming in here. And so I'm not telling you these things to like say, "Here's, you know, what I think will happen if that occurs." This is from personal experience. Everything I'm sharing with you has been personal experiences.

These things in here, understanding, hey look, there's usually going to be one last liquidation that happens in the market, and looking for a crashing structure to happen throughout in here, followed by like an ABC to come out. These are not just random guesses, these are past experiences of understanding how the market does work. Me saying sentiment's going to get deteriorated in here, me having the cojones to come on to X and say that the crowd is going to get wrong-footed at the reversal, these are just personal experiences.

And so, personal experience has taught me, after going through this and going through this, when it was a surprise at the bottom and a surprise at the bottom and a surprise at the bottom, is that conviction is really not there for a lot of participants in the market, and that's going to be the number one priority right now in this market, because all this data suggests we've gone through the bottom and that we are in a phase where prices are still relatively low, and a lot of people get themselves washed out here.

So, follow the data, it all tells you the same story, whether it's breadth, whether it's divergences, confirmed divergences, confirmed breadth, momentum changes happening on even larger time frames, or even looking at the on-chain data, conviction is going to matter throughout here. We're going to be unwaveringly bullish. Like I've said, rocket ships galore, your mom goes to college, we've got everything that we need.

Welcome to the new regime. So, it's just going to take a little bit of patience here back at this 50-week moving average. And but the number one theme I think that people really do need to focus on is building their conviction, and I only say that because your conviction is going to get tested if there is a pullback in here. If it takes 4 to 8 weeks, like we typically see, for it to be able to get through that 50-week moving average, the dopamine of what happened 2 weeks ago has worn off by then.

And if you have followed this channel for any extended period of time, there just seems to be this large crowd of people who just love to disagree with me. I don't know why, but I suspect there's going to be a lot of disagreement with that, and the data is just absolutely unequivocal. My conviction has never been higher than it is right now that we're beyond the bottom. So, I hope that you're doing well. I hope you had a wonderful weekend, and I look forward to being in this new regime with you.

So, we'll see how this week pans out as it struggles here underneath the 50-week moving average, and we'll take it day by day looking for new signals to show up and tell us the story of how we're going to react here. Till then, we just kind of sit back and wait on it. Otherwise, guys, that's going to be it for this one. Uh check out the newsletter I just published this morning. The wait is over. Confirmation has arrived.

Bratz momentum on-chain and historical signals all do this when the bottom is in. So, this is a longer one. It's got a 48-minute audio recording. I go through and talk about all the cases we've built for why the bottom was being built for the last 6 months, then go through and show all the confirmations that have happened of the bottom being in like we've seen in all past market cycles, and then, of course, looking ahead.

That's available over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter, to blockchainbacker.substack.com, or you can just go directly within your browser. Otherwise, guys, that's it. Thank you so much for watching. If you could, please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you could be notified of when I create new content and when I go live.

As always, this is not investment advice, and I am not a financial advisor, but if you ever need a pick-me-up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the Blockchain Backer's got your back. Have a good one. >> [music]