Range Keeps Bucking Up for Bitcoin Price Chart and Altcoin Market as 50-Week is the Next to Fall transcript

[music] >> Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today, we'll take a quick look over here at the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market as the price of Bitcoin popped up to a little bit over $82,000 yesterday and XRP sitting back at $1.45 with Bitcoin sitting back up here at the resistances similar to what we've seen in past market cycles after we come off of these lows in here, confirm the bullish divergence like we've seen over here on the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market still back at that exact same level over here.

And now we're stuck here with the debate at the 50-week moving average after we've seen the market really react very differently to the 50-week moving average in past historical market cycles. The things of course that aren't different are just getting into these oversold conditions down in here after of course breaking through the 50-week, breaking through the 100-week, going into capitulation, being oversold, building a bullish divergence and shooting back to that 50-week moving average as we done here in 2026.

Question is how long will I have to stay down here? Will I have to do still like a spring in here? My thoughts are it's probably unlikely that we have to do a spring considering we just did one back in here with this liquidation and that's the one that really scared the market out. You know, I posted a tweet yesterday and said, you know, the most painful direction is up and that's really just due to so much sideline capital that happened back here back in the middle to second half of August.

However, we can't kid ourselves to think, "Hey, we're going to break out very quickly because really it took 4 to 8 weeks back in 2018 and back in 2023 took even like 14 weeks back in 2015. But we even talked about this in markets in the morning and it looks like we're even starting to kind of transpire a little bit here as I'm recording this second that one thing we can watch for is to see if just like a range starts to get built throughout in here.

And if price can push back up to the top of the range, that shows that there's really still a lot of bullish strength left in here. So, even in a best-case scenario, obviously the best-case scenario is to just bust out through that 50-week moving average, but of the scenarios that I've been presenting that, you know, we go into do a crashing structure like so, and then we shoot our way back up in here, it's that we're probably like halfway through the range.

And that this could still progress throughout here for I don't know, if this took about 2 weeks, it would make sense if it was two more. If that's our extreme bullish scenario that it doesn't give any opportunities for re-entries to happen down in here, but typically the way ranges end is they still have like a little liquidation that happened right here at the very end of the range that spooks everybody. Again, it gets everybody caught offsides again, a second time thinking, "Oh yeah, this thing's definitely going to come down." And then boom, it does the same thing all over again.

And that's why we keep deeming it the wall of worry. That's why we keep kind of saying, "Hey, look, the thing that's going to be really important during this time is going to be conviction." We've done everything that you would expect to see at a bear market bottom, including things over here on the weekly time frame. And even if we go to the 2-week time frame, we have all the things that have happened in past bears, including what happened recently with our MACD flipping back up over here on the 2-week time frame.

Right? We go through capitulation as the 2-week MACD breaks down. We have our first flip back to the upside happening here with our momentum in the MACD, and we are beyond the low. The same thing happens here in 2018, we capitulate as the MACD breaks down. Once we go back up with momentum to the upside, the bottom is in. Same thing in 2022. Then here in 2023, we get our first green bar, our first momentum shift to happen here on the MACD, and the bottom is in.

And that is exactly what we have done here. And we tracked that in real-time saying, "Hey, look, we're going to be past capitulation. We're past the worst part of this market at this point because we've already broken down in here. Now, we've gone on and printed our first momentum shift back to the upside just like we do at the bottom of all bear markets after capitulating." The thing is just being stuck at the 50-week and it's going to be hard to come up with revolutionary things to say while we're there at that time stuck up battling against this thing.

I think it's just like even if we're going to be like raging bulls and like go for like the most bullish scenario of rather than being like "Hey, this could end up taking some time to play out in here." But rather being like, "Well, we're going to get out really quickly." You would still think it's probably only about halfway through the range if it's going to do so. So, the best tip I can give right now is just kind of like remaining patient, not thinking, "Hey, everything's going to go to the moon within a month and I'm going to be retiring in a month." It's usually not like that.

We're going to be here a while. Each range is going to have a different amount of time. This range, hopefully, we could like have a range that's only like four or six weeks. But then even shifting out of there, we could end up having ranges that last quite a bit longer. We could go through like a four-month range that lasts throughout in here, right? So, that is the name of the game until we get to the extreme excitement point of the market, which happens once an all-time high gets broken.

And that's going to be the process that we're working our way back up to. Lots of fear, lots of uncertainty, lots of doubt, lots of low-conviction capital sloshing around who have social media accounts. So, you're going to see a lot of it happen with viral posts, uncertainties, unknowns. And but what I've obviously spent the last several weeks and really the last six months doing is saying, "We're building out the bottom." And then the last several weeks have been, "Okay, now we've shown the confirmations of it." And that's really what this recent newsletter was that I published over here on Substack was we went through and listed out like 28 different cases of why the bottom was in.

And those cases were all things that we presented in the newsletter. They've been presented here on the YouTube channel during the entire process. And then all the confirmations that we have flipped to the other side. The hardest part is when you go through the wall of worry, everybody's wishy-washy and emotions are on edge. So, the best tip I can give right now is we're just patience. If this is an extremely bullish range that's playing out right in here, it's probably halfway through the range.

And it's funny to see it just kind of pulling back while I'm recording right in here. But then you would anticipate that we could be in here for just a minute and kind of understand the anatomy of a range, right? That you kind of do five waves to the downside and five waves and then just keep pushing that range around in here until there's enough momentum for something to truly break out. So, my thoughts are right now is it's all about conviction.

That's what I titled the video on Monday is like conviction's going to matter right now because those who don't have it are going to find themselves washing machines. Um but if you're just nothing but a data person and you're only going to go based on the historical behavior of the cryptocurrency market, um there's no debating here of where we're at within this market cycle, right? We've gone oversold. We've done all the indicators and now it's just going to be a patience game.

And so, nice to see that move in there. We do know we're still stuck up here at the top. Um but to even continue pushing, um I still think the dream is alive that uh this is just going to range out in here. Uh if we get kind of a pullback down into these areas down in here, uh I will probably deploy more capital in here. Um I just don't know if we're going to end up getting it. That this range could really just keep going.

But for those with like a it's hard to say timing, right? But like the multi-year view right now, uh these are the times where everybody wishes they were here. They were wish they were here during this time period back in 2015, 2019, 2022 and 23. Um but what they don't realize is those people who who come in later, they don't realize what it was like during those moments. That yeah, you got offered those really good prices.

But you mean you all remember it was FTX, it was all the stuff in here and it just felt like trash for a long time, right? And that it it that's what it always feels was at the lows. And even once we confirm the lows, people still just don't believe it. Right now, it's just a debate of the 50-week moving average and how this range will go, and we'll let it kind of go through the weekend and see how things transpire. Otherwise, everything still just looks fantastic in this market.

I'm very excited for the regime shift, but this week again was another week of still continuing to buck up against that 50-week moving average, and it'll be unknown how long it takes before something just comes in and just annihilates it through there, but certainly laying that foundation of the entire market and what happened to get back there, I think is the most important thing to to keep in your head. So, I'll keep it relatively brief, right?

It's still ranging back at the top of like the the post-capitulation level where prices capitulated from back in February, working against that 50-week moving average. Even our most bullish little range we could try to build here, it'd probably still be a couple more weeks for it to kind of build itself out. And but the moves that we saw yesterday to really push it back up to 82, it still gets me thinking, man, that that thing is definitely still possible.

However, I think if we we do break through the 50-week moving average, I do think there's a reasonable chance I think we could range up there for a couple of months. So, talking about a little bit of excitement to try to maybe get out of here within a few weeks. We'll see how it kind of goes. And but even if we do, it I just have this instinct that it's going to be stuck for a few months up there. But either way, great time to be in the market.

Another week in the books. I am fortunately I'm very sick. I really debated making a video this morning. I've got just a raging headache and something going on with my throat, but I hadn't checked in with you guys with a video since Monday. We did markets on the morning, we did a member stream yesterday, but we hadn't done a video, so I wanted to make sure I touch base with you and let you know, hey, nice pop yesterday. 50-week moving average still the battle.

Conviction going to be the thing. Having to make sure you are not relying on misguided opinions, but making sure that you're looking at data. So, all right, I'm wrapping it up. I'm calling it a weekend. I think it's an extended weekend this weekend. I'm not sure, but I'll probably still be checking in on Monday. Anyway, I'm done. That's it. Check out the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com. It's 48 minutes long.

Trying to overwhelmingly show the conviction that the bottom is behind us. You can check that out at blockchainbacker.substack.com. There's a link in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com. Or you can just go directly within your browser. Otherwise guys, I hope that you have a fantastic weekend and I'll check in with you at the next one. That's it. Thank you so much for watching.

If you could, please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you could be notified of when I create new content and when I go live. As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial advisor. But if you ever need a pick-me-up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the Blockchain Backers got your back. Have a good one. >> [music]