COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4 PICKS & PREDICTIONS FOR THE BIGGEST GAMES w/ BRAD POWERS! transcript

I can make a case that Oregon's defense is the most diff disappointing unit in all of college football so far. They're giving up 33 points per game to the two FBS opponents that they faced so far. And now they face the most talented offense that they've seen so far this season. All right, joining me now to rip through the week four college football board with best bets, leans, and analysis for all the top games as our guy Brad Powers off to a solid start here on the program.

Eight and four with his top predictions so far. Brad, how you making out today? >> Doing well. Looking forward to another great week of college football this week. >> Indeed. Okay. Yes. a lot of games to dig into. Before we get into the action though, if you're not already on Kelshi, now is the time. Football's here and you do not want to be setting up an account Midame when the action's already moving. Get it done now.

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And Brad, let's hop right into the action. So, a handful of games here in college football on Thursday and Friday. Couple games on ESPN here on Friday night, headlined by Northwestern Indiana. Clemson takes a show on the road to California. So, let's start there. You have a best bet on this game between Clemson and Cal. What are we thinking? >> Yeah, best bets on Cal uh plus one and a half with one of the best prices in the market is at Cali on Cal.

So, you get them as an underdog. What am I seeing in this game? Well, it's a horrific spot for for Clemson. Short tra short rest, you know, on a short week, you know, with the game being played on Friday, traveling all the way across the country and a very unique start time for Clemson. 10:30 kickoff time, East Coast time. So, immediately I'm thinking, when's the last time Clemson played a game uh with a kickoff at 10:30 or later?

How about this, Joe? The 1982 Mirage Bowl against Wake Forest, the game that was played in Japan. That was the last time Clemson played a game with with this late of a kickoff. On top of it, you look at Clemson's game last week against North Carolina. A very fortunate win, a very fortunate cover. I think they were definitely bailed out by the the lengthy weather delay in that game allowed their freshman quarterback to get a reset.

Now he's making his first career start on the road in this one. And it's against a CLA a Cal team that that's been preparing for this game for two weeks. Why do I say that? Because they played an FCS team in Wagner last week and they were favored by 58 and a half. So, I like the spot here for for Cal and I also think they're the better team statistically when you look at look at yards per play margin. So, equate all that, you get a best bet. >> Okay, let's go.

Let us go to Saturday now. Let's start things off with Texas favored by four against Tennessee. A total of 55 and a half. This is the first meeting between these teams since 1969. Uh these defenses on fire to start the season here. They've combined to hold four of six opponents to singledigit scoring. Kind of makes the under stand out to me here in this one. What are you thinking? >> I'm going I like Texas here minus the four, especially with the number coming down throughout the week.

I'm not scared. Uh, you know, obviously Texas has had their struggles on the road, particularly last season, but I also know what I'm getting from Texas, at least out of the two teams so far this season. Uh, I loved how they responded when they were down three touchdowns against Ohio State in their other marquee game that they played. Tennessee hasn't played a marquee game. Their toughest opponent, Georgia Tech. Yeah, they won by three touchdowns, but that game hasn't aged well considering Georgia Tech lost to a terrible Colorado team on their home field.

So, you got a Tennessee team playing with a true freshman quarterback against that elite Texas defense. I don't think that's a good matchup there. And yes, the crowd will be very good there, but I think ideally for Tennessee, uh, this would have been a 3:30 or a nighttime kickoff, not a noon, high noon kickoff. So, I don't think the crowd will be as bad as what people are anticipating. I like Texas minus 4. >> Okay, next up we have Oklahoma taking on Georgia who's favored by 13 and a half over a Kelshi.

A total on the low end here, 44 and a half. So, Georgia has scored great start for them this season, 3-0 against the spread. They've scored at least 45 points and won by at least 28 in every game so far this season. Oklahoma, meanwhile, their last two games against Michigan and New Mexico, they've only scored 24 total points in those games. And you're coming out swinging with another best bet for this one. >> I am. Best bet Georgia 13 half.

Love that price at Kelshi. Again, the best price in the market. We'll take advantage of it here around a key number. What am I seeing? Uh, you mentioned a little bit of it. Georgia 3 and 0 against the spread. I know they haven't played anybody yet, but let's see how they did compared to expectations. And they've covered all three games. Something that they usually don't do as a big favorite. And this offense led by Gunnar Stockton, who's number one in the country in QBR, number one in QB rating, number one in yards per pass attempt, hasn't thrown an interception.

Uh, it's he's playing as well as anybody in the country and doing so very quietly. On top of it, you got an Oklahoma defense. Yeah, that's their best part of their team, but they haven't faced a top 100 offense so far this season, and now they're facing the number one scoring offense in the country. Oh, yeah, by the way, availability reports come out on Wednesday night uh for the SEC, and I don't think the markets fully reacted quite enough to this.

Oklahoma could be down four starters on defense, but now traveling on the road uh to to this one. And finally for me, you got a Georgia defense facing an Oklahoma offense with John Matier, uh, who obviously has struggled with turnovers so far this season. And when you can only put up 10 against Michigan and 14 against New Mexico, and now you're facing an even more talented defense. I don't like that Oklahoma would be able to keep pace here.

Georgia blows them out. >> With you on that one. Okay, next up, maybe we have in case for an all-time letown spot here. Old Miss going to Florida who's favorite by three. Total of 58 and a half. So, a little bit of history here for the people. This series turns 100 years old this season. Old Miss and Florida first met in Gainesville in October of 1926. The Rebels won 12 to7. An absolute banger uh of a final score. A century later.

The alltime series is dead even and 1. The most recent game between these teams, Miss won 34 to 24 last season in a game where they were favored by 10 and a half. So, kind of interesting here, Brad. We have the 21st ranked team favored over the fourth ranked team. Do you think Miss is being slept on here in this one? >> No. Uh, I bet Florida in this one, I just don't like the current price because not only is it sitting at three at some shops, it's sitting at, you know, even at three and a half at a place like Kel.

So, I think the spot being horrible for Old Miss is why the Gator are favored by in some spots more than a field goal. So, let's go to the total here. I got another best bet. We're not going to overthink this. We're going to go over the total over 58 and a half, I think, with Florida on their offense. You got maybe the best offensive coordinator in college football that nobody knows about still. You better get to learn this name.

His name's Buster Faulner. He comes over from Georgia Tech. You don't believe that he's great. Go look at how Georgia Tech's offense doing without him. And now look at this Florida offense who just put up 44 points on the road last week against Auburn. Uh, it's a Florida offense that has the best running back in the country and Jaden Ball, a very serviceable quarterback in Aaron Pho, two great wide receivers. Uh, and now they're taking on an Old Miss offense that maybe has the best college quarterback in the country.

Uh, in Trinidad Chamblas, I mean, I don't think he's going to be flat in this game. So, I'm expecting a ton of points here, just like we saw from the Florida Auburn game uh just last week and just what we saw from a lot of Old Miss games uh throughout the last couple years, including that opener against Louisville. Okay, next up we have Iowa taking on Michigan who's favorite by five and a half. Total on the low and a 38 and a half.

A little bit more history for you guys. People have commented that they like these little nuggets. I'll try not to go overkill, but there's some good ones here this week. So Iowa and Michigan first played in Detroit in 1900. And Iowa won that game by an extremely old-fashioned score of 28 to 5. So why is that an oldfashioned score? You see five and you probably think safety and a field goal. No. At that time, field goals were worth five points in college football.

So field goals in early American football were worth five points from 1983 to 1904. From 1904 to 1908, the value dropped to four. And as we know, field goals are now worth three points. So you can impress the homies with that little nugget there in the group chat this week. So, more recently, Michigan has won four straight against Iowa, holding the Hawkeyes to just 20 combined points in those games. Most recently, meeting in 2023.

So, some obvious turnover. Now, Iowa hasn't really played anyone this season. All you can do is play the schedule that's in front of you, though, and they're 3-0, outscoring their opponents 111-13. Do you think this Iowa offense is improved? Do you think Michigan will make this look like matchups from recent seasons? >> I lean Michigan here. I made it six. Uh so let's lean Michigan minus five and a half. Uh I think Michigan's the more trustworthy commodity.

At least I've seen them in in a high profile game against Oklahoma two weeks ago. I also liked how Michigan has responded a couple different times this year. Obviously coming off of the controversial win against Western Michigan. They upset Oklahoma in that game. Then last week they have some early adversity. uh that they're trailing UTEP in the second quarter. Uh and people are are really overreacting online if you look at the social media.

Now all of a sudden Michigan not only comes from behind, but they cover a 34 and a half point spread last week against UTF. So I think they're the more trustworthy commodity. Yes, Iowa's number one in the country in a lot of the defensive statistics, but again, they haven't played anybody and this is their first road trip. And speaking of that, first career road start for their quarterback. Can he protect the football?

I have questions on that. That's why I lean Michigan. Okay, next up, South Carolina taking on Alabama, who's favored by 12 and a half, total 53 and a half. So, South Carolina has come to play the past couple seasons here against Alabama, covering twice as a double-digit underdog. Uh, two buzzsaw offenses going at it here in this one. SC averaging 45, I should say, South Carolina averaging 45.3 points per game, Alabama 47.6.

And as we talked about on Monday, their defense a little sputty uh here early in the season. I absolutely love the over here. Uh sign me up for that. What are you thinking? >> Yeah, I like the over. Let's not overthink this. Uh and you know, let's just look at some of the scoring uh in these games uh so far this season. I mean, last week uh Alabama had a game featured 86 points. The week before 62 points. Last week, South Carolina 75 points.

And those are all games. This isn't them running up scores against, you know, group of six competition or FCS opponents. These are all high leverage power conference games that they're playing and we've seen high scoring like that. You look at Alabama's offense, it's ascending. I love their quarterback, Keelin Russell. He's off his best game of his young career so far. 300 plus passing yards. Big long touchdown run for him.

But I question this Alabama defense has given up big plays, including last week against Florida State when they gave up 36 points. On top of the other side, uh you look at South Carolina. uh last week gave up 41 points to Mississippi State. If you followed the game, uh that was 41 points, not in 60 minutes, but 30 minutes, Joe. They actually shut him down early, but man, a bar a scoring barrage uh got after him pretty good there in a short period of time.

I think Alabama's capable of that. Uh so, I think this total looks cheap. That's like over 53 and a half. >> With you there. Okay, fun one there. Uh so, we have a trio of pretty good looking games here on Saturday night that we're going to get into. Before we do that, guys, if you like the show, it's very easy to let us know. Just hit the like right down there. Also, hit up the comments section. What is your top prediction for week four's college football action?

Okay, the Saturday night we go. Prime time. Texas A&M taking on LSU is favorite by eight and a half. A total of 51 and a half. Both teams coming off very painful losses for different reasons last week. So LSU uh they've won 25 of their last 27 night games at Tiger Stadium, but one of those two losses came against Texas A&M uh who beat them 49 to 25 last season. Do you think&m can rise to the occasion here in familiar territory or do you like LSU at 8 and a half here? >> I lean Texas A&M here plus eight and a half.

Haven't gotten to the window yet, but my power rings only made the game seven and a half. So, some slight value here on Texas A&M. Uh, what am I seeing overall game is a playoff elimination game. Uh, both teams already with one loss and you look at their upcoming schedules, I do not anticipate the loser of this game to be able to run the table. So, uh, boy, you could have two really proud franch uh, you know, college programs here that that that could be looking out of the playoffs by the end of September.

I'm I I know the fan bases weren't expecting that coming in the season. Uh&&M for me, as long as Marcel Reed can play somewhat clean, which he did last year in this very stadium, I expect them to keep it somewhat close here. But in the end, LSU wins and it's&m out of the playoffs when it's all said and done. >> Okay, let's go to uh Oregon. Number 20 taking on number 12 LS or USC who's now up to three. I saw a couple three and a halfs out there as well.

Now Brad gave out two and a half in Oregon on Monday. It pays to watch the Monday program. And we have a total on the high end 62. So the first Oregon USC game was played on a Monday in 1915. Oregon won that game 34 to nothing in Los Angeles. More than a century later, it remains the Duck's largest margin of victory over USC. So Oregon has won four straight against USC, all by seven or more. The teams are combined 5-1 to the over so far this season.

Oregon dropped 84 points on Portland State in their game there last week. That's the most points they scored in a game in 110 years. It's Portland State, but still, you know, a pretty nice response to their loss there the week before. Now, I'm guessing you don't like it as much here at the three, but any thoughts here on the total? [snorts] >> Yeah, still lean Oregon, but obviously it's not best bet material now that it's, you know, gotten to that key number of three.

I like the total. Again, maybe you're, you know, this sounds square. Uh I like over 62 and a half betted at that number. Uh the last 10 meetings between USC and Oregon, average total score 75. You look at this year, forget the the last 10 years meetings. Let's just look at how the teams are doing this year. You mentioned Oregon 3-0 to the over, going over the total by an average of 12 points per game. So easily flying over.

USC games are three and one to the over, going over by an average of eight points per game. Now you got a USC defense that hasn't faced a top 70 offense yet this season and yet they're still don't even rank in the top 100 in yards per play allowed. So now they're I expect even worse numbers from a USC defense. On the other side, I can make a case that Oregon's defense is the most diff disappointing unit in all of college football so far.

They're giving up 33 points per game to the two FPS opponents that they faced so far. And now they face the most talented offense that they've seen so far this season. So, all that equates to uh you know, if you haven't got to the window yet on the side, go ahead and bet the the over here. I like over 62 and a half. >> All right, a lot of good looking over spots here this week. Okay, uh the third game here on Saturday night.

Don't sleep on this one. A lot of competition for good college football action here on Saturday night. We have 19 Missouri taking on number 24 Mississippi State who's favored by 6 and a half. Total 58 and a half. So Missouri beat Mississippi State 49 to 27 last season in a game where they were favored by 7 and a half. Do you think Mississippi State has improved enough to warrant the adjustment on the spread here, Brett? >> No, it's about near my ratings.

Uh even on Sunday on the on the soft openers, this was three. So the markets finally, in my opinion, caught up to how good Mississippi State has been so far that this young season. I don't know if they've caught up to how good they are on offense, though. So, I'm going to like another over here. And it all pretty much comes down to quarterback play. Kamario Taylor's the name, if you don't know it by now, the Mississippi State quarterback probably.

I mean, right now, the early favorite to be the number one pick in the 2028 NFL draft. But let's talk instead of talking two years from now, let's talk this game. Mississippi State last week. I kind of already mentioned it. 41 points against South Carolina. That wasn't done in 60 minutes. That was done in 30 minutes. So, we're talking about one of the best offenses in all of college football. Missouri's been kind of jackal and hide.

So, offensively, they're off their worst performance of the season against Troy last week. I think there was a little bit of look ahead here. They also have a great quarterback and Austin Simmons, who was supposed to be the Old Miss starter until a guy by the name of Trinidad Chamblas came along last year, but uh in his most high-profile, high leverage game so far this season, I thought Simmons played excellent against Kansas, and I expect him to bounce back this week over 58 and a half.

Okay, to recap the best bets for the week, uh, Friday night, Cal plus one and a half against Clemson. Uh, Georgia minus 13 a.5 over 58 a half between Miss and Florida. And on the Monday show, Brad gave out Oregon minus 2 and a half and same Houston plus 35 12 over Texas Tech. Okay, Brad, we will leave it at that. Thank you very much for joining. Enjoy the games. Best of luck with those predictions on Saturday and we'll catch you again on Monday. >> Thanks for having me.