HUGE Bitcoin And XRP Update As The Markets Watch The Bond Rates transcript

Hey everybody, Economic Ninja here. I got a really big, really great update for bit the Bitcoin price, which is going to affect the XRP price, the Salana price, and Ethereum of really all the main nets. I want to talk about where we are right now, where we were about a month and a half ago, and I want to give you both sides of the uh of the argument of is Bitcoin going higher, which will bring everything else higher, or is it going to be tanking?

As of the recording of this, Bitcoin's down a couple thousand dollars because of what's going on with the 10-year. We're going to get into that. Okay, so where we are right now, well, this is it. Uh, the price has some interesting uh situations going on. First off, the $88,000 uh Bitcoin number was rejected twice. Once on September 21st and once on September 23rd, right now we're sitting around what 83 or something like that and change.

Now it is 6 weeks. It has been 6 weeks above the 200 day moving average and this is the seventh weekly close, right? um that it's been doing great. This is up 45% off of the July 1 low of $57,000 and it's up 50% uh uh it ran 50% at its peak, right? That 86,638 uh number. Now the fear and greed index, right, is 71 right now from a 78, right? That pullback is really interesting because as the price runs up, people get more greedy and they run in to buy and that takes the fear number and brings it back down, right?

And this was expected to happen. Well, where are we going from here, right? Well, there's two paths, right? First off, one path is going up, right? Two weekly closes over 88,000 or one over 92,000 will confirm that this is the shelf, right? Um, but again, that's it has to be a weekly close over that number. And volatility is definitely in the cards right now with everything that's going on geopolitically with the stock market, with the AI bubble, the the fear trade on the AI and all of that stuff, right?

Because if that becomes the shelf, right? either uh 88,000 for two weeks or 92,000 for a week, then we're looking at price range between 97,000 and 111,000, which are the next test uh numbers. Now, again, this is technical analysis and technical analysis can get thrown completely out the window when all of a sudden you see some war announced or something like that. Right now, that's the upside potential. Let's talk about Oh, before we talk about the downside, I do have to make a quick announcement.

I've been asked this forever and I always fought it and I said no and now I'm gonna finally do it. I'm gonna only let this happen for like two or three days. I'm going to provide an option. There's a link down below if you want to check it out. All of my crypto courses. I'm going to also throw in uh all of these tools that Dylan has built up with some other uh developers on giving you all of these amazing dashboards for crypto. where we are in cycles.

There's so much there and there's a couple more bonuses. We're going to do it uh a sale for a monthly subscription if you want to take a look at it. Links down below. It's only going to be around for a couple days. Okay. Now, let's talk about the downside. What could happen to XRP, Bitcoin, and all these things if these numbers hit. So, the shallow pullback should be between 78,000 and 82,000. Like I said, as of the recording of this, we're at 83.

We're off a couple thousand dollar right now. A deep pullback would be between 70 and 74K, which actually is looking like it's pretty possible because Coin Glass is showing a lot of uh heavy concentration on uh stop limits around those numbers. Actually, even down to 67,000. Well, both of these are buy points if it goes down there as long as 69,600 holds on a weekly close. Now, last week's $75,000 flush out got bought up inside of three days, right?

That was fast. That's a lot of volume. But the bear door is open. If we go down below the 200E average, which sits around 65,900 below that, you're looking at the low 60s to low uh high 50s, which is back on the table. And that is a totally different conversation. And here is what would have happened first, right? Um, but it just took off with some some great news about the economy, which I think honestly will end up being a rugpool.

But I digress. Now, let's talk about some macro stuff. The 10-year over 5% and rising uh since July is huge headwind. The one macro number that has moved against crypto, right? Um, I'm actually quite shocked that crypto is behaving this way because there is no macro evidence that shows that there is enough people around the world with a bunch of money to keep inflating the crypto prices. Okay, now let's talk about breath. 30% of the stocks uh in the indexes in America now are above their 50-day average.

The index is being held up by just a few names. And then we have the leverage plays that are going on right now. Opus open interest in crypto right now is up $6 billion in a day. Funding is still neutral, so it's not one-sided yet, but a fast flush is more than likely. Okay, so this can happen pretty fast. The liquidation cluster is now in the low 60s. Like I was saying earlier, information off of Coin Glass and heat maps.

Um, that's it's it's being it's being it's pretty obvious. Okay. Um, so let's talk about cycle timing. This low came in the one back in July at 268 days from the top. Prior lows came in 363 to 410. So hear what I'm saying right now. A lot of people are calling that $67,000 number the low sorry the the low in July. They're saying that's it. We're now bull run. So that means it would have came in at 268, but prior lows in the Bitcoin cycle came in between 363 to 410 days.

So this would be an incredibly abnormally short bare cycle when it comes to crypto. I do not personally believe that we have seen the lows yet. Okay, the the early low cases in history were 2011 and 2020 and both of those held. Now let's talk about the truth and the reality, right? No failed bare market rally has ever held six weekly uh closes above the 200 day. Okay, as of right now, this one has. That is a structure shift, but it's not a guarantee.

And this is why everybody thinks that we are now entering the bull market. You see, every bull year 1 had a down 20% or worse pullback. None broke the bare lows and the flushes are the entries, not the exits. Right? You know, I personally missed the bump, right? So, here's the plan so nobody misses the move, right? The five tanches and that I talk about in like when I go in and go out of these uh these positions, you don't want to dive all of your money in because if you're wrong, you have no dry powder if the number if the the price drops even more.

And that's why like right now most of my money is in dry powder. 30% of my uh assets in my crypto basket are actually in cryptos and a lot of them are still down. So the 70% that I have in cash that's becoming more and more valuable every day. Excuse me. And when I see this price move when you know XRP went from a dollar to a$150 or$160, would I have loved to have taken advantage of that? Yeah. But the fact of the matter is I can't catch every single up wave and I can't catch every down wave.

And this is why I am constantly filling myself full of more and more education because I've been trading crypto since 2017. I've been trading stocks since 1998. Uh you know, options and all that kind of stuff. The one thing I know is for sure is you can't always catch every single cycle. But when you take profits and you wait for a larger swing down on something you believe in, you buy it, wait for it to go back up, you make a lot of money.

All right. If you want to take a look at that deal, it's only around for a couple days. Links down below. The economic ninja is