Historic Bottom Marker of Breadth Keeps Rising as Bitcoin Price Chart & Altcoin Market Push 50-Week transcript

[music] >> Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today we'll be taking a look over here at the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market which sits at 2.65 trillion dollars along with Bitcoin battling against the 50-week moving average up here at a little bit over 78,000 as last week when it closed out the weekly candle, it closed a mere four dollars below the 50-week moving average getting as absolutely close to getting through that thing as you could possibly get.

However, it is anticipated at least based on historical precedent set by this market that it usually takes several weeks for us to be able to get through there. Of course, we've laid that foundation in there to show what happens after we've gone through capitulation phases in this market and then once we get back to that 50-week moving average that we've already gone over sold, we shoot our way back up with the relative strength or in this situation oversold have shot ourselves back up with the relative strength.

Oversold, back up with the relative strength and battling against that 50-week moving average just typically takes some time to work its way through it. So, we're kind of stuck in a state of kind of limbo waiting on that to see what style and structure we'll get off of this 50-week moving average. However, of course, the behavior set by this market shows that we are past the bottom based on every historical bear market that we've had in the crypto market previously.

Whether we look at things from the one-week time frame to insinuate that the bottom is already confirmed or even if we push ourselves out to the two-week time frame that we've already got the momentum shifting back to green over here on the two-week MACD. Once the MACD has already broken through the signal line or gone through the zero line, capitulation is historically done. Then, by the time the momentum has uh swapped back to green after breaking through the signal line, the bottom is already in.

And this is true for all of the past bear markets. Capitulation happens when we break through the signal line every single time. And then, by the time momentum has swapped back to green here on the 2-week time frame, we're beyond the bottom. And now, without making it too sexy or too complicated, it's really just all the same stuff. Being stuck here at this 50-week moving average, twiddling our thumbs, waiting to see how long it's going to take for it to exit.

Now, of course, for those bottom markers as well that we just saw by the 2-week momentum changing over there on the MACD, we also, of course, have the breadth open down here. This is a historical bottom marker of bear markets or even of ranges. This is what typically marks Not really typically, it does it every single time. It marks the bottom. We can see the breadth still continuing to shuffle its way up as we see total three continue to try to push here a little bit, still kind of stuck underneath this range from back in May.

Yet, others or the altcoin market, everything excluding the top 10 of crypto, has pushed there up above May. So, of course, the breadth still continues to open because the majority of the crypto market is still being able to push its way up. But, it is important to remember this is typically not the marker of like an alt season starting. This is really just a bottom marker. For an alt season triggering to happen, we need to see things like macro markets, Bitcoin, and then see the breadth open at the same time.

It's kind of like a triple whammy formula to happen in here. The current context of where we're at right now is just marking the bottom. And that's been why the topic has been so much about conviction. Hey, look, every time these series of events have occurred, we're past the bottom of the market. But, what doesn't change is that any type of pullbacks are going to be met with uncertainty and doubt and wavering conviction.

Especially since we kind of react differently to the 50-week every single time, whether that's 2023, 2019, or in 2015. All the reactions back at that 50-week are different. So, we don't have some like magical formula to look forward and say it's going to exactly do this. I do believe this door is still wide open right in here for Bitcoin that we could just still be building a range throughout here. And that, of course, an additional push up here in Bitcoin would probably symbolize this market's going to recover much faster than people anticipate.

But we still just have to wait for that to kind of play itself out. And of course, it would leave everybody behind down in here that are still looking for 40 to 50k. But a quicker recovery, of course, would be welcomed by most people who probably watch this channel. I personally think we're only even allowed to say those types of things of a quicker recovery is because well, back in 2022 and 2023, we were met with breadth issues throughout the United States stock market and especially the Russell 2000 that forced a prolonged crypto bear market throughout here.

We obviously do not have have a massive separation between macro and between crypto currently. Typically, those types of separations do find their way to reunite. We also do have IGV cooperating, which has been the asset class that crypto's really been tied to for the last four to five years. But again, kind of reiterating that we're marking bottoms throughout here, not necessarily marking alt seasons is because even if we remain correlated with this, I just don't think there's like the obvious evidence to say this thing's ready to go like this.

But I could I could definitely see us ranging throughout here a little bit more before we get out, you know, similar, you know, to getting out like that. But obviously still imply well beyond the bottom in here. But I do know most people are looking for when are things going to get really exciting and there's usually a lot of steps we have to get to first. Our first step, of course, was like confirming that the bottom is in.

That's what we've been doing with all the data that we've been showing in here is that hey, we're confirming that every single time these types of events happen in here and then the breadth opens, and then we revisit the 50-week moving average. We're beyond the bottom. We're not in the face-melting extreme excitement phase. We're just getting beyond being past the bear market, right? So, I do think these things will come in the the days where we come on here and just kind of hoot and holler of extreme excitement.

Those days will come. I just think there's a lot of steps we still have to do before we get there. I do think we'll see that Bitcoin dominance collapse down here to about 35 at some point, and this catch-up happen here between the Russell and between the crypto market. And probably our fastest way of getting there would probably be something like this, which of course is zoomed out. This was our bear market thesis that we used as we were entering into Q4 of 2025, and of course around 2026 as we made our way back to the 2021 highs.

And so, this certainly hasn't been invalidated. It totally looks fine. Like we're all just going to kind of wait and see in here how quick can we get our way out of this range, and it's not unreasonable to think, "Hey, we we could just be working on another part in here uh to then go ahead and step our way out." And once that 50-week breaks, then there's just like no arguments left for anybody at that point for uh looking for 40 to 50k.

I frankly don't even think the 40 to 50k argument has any legs to it still whatsoever, or that new lows have any argument to it uh if you're just completely honest with the data not being cognitively dissonant. I don't even know if you can use that phrase like that, but having cognitive dissonance. Now, that once we have gone oversold, right? Anytime we go back to the 50-week, and we still haven't gone oversold yet, uh sure there's the argument there, uh but not once we've already gone oversold and created the bullish divergences and and pushed our way out of here to get back to that 50-week.

We're definitely well beyond it at that point once we've already gone oversold. If we haven't gone oversold yet by the time we hit that 50-week, sure that argument is still there, uh but not once we've already done it. Once we've already gone down in here, we get back to that 50-week. That's it, right? So, the name of the game is still just patience. You you we tend to see a lot of volatility happen here right around this 50-week moving average or at the same time it's the 300-day moving average.

There's a lot of chop and ranging that happens throughout here. That's where we're at right now sitting right on the upside of that 300-day moving average. The bottom of XRP totally think it's already in. We've done everything to match what historical bear markets look like, but we're still just waiting for that next phase for it to be able to push its way up and I do just think it's it's going to take at least at a minimum for Bitcoin to be able to get out of that 50-week.

I'm not so certain that XRP's going to be ready to moon yet once we get through that 50-week, but we can at least like start entertaining the XRP chart it once we can see that starts to transpire over there on Bitcoin. And really I think these, you know, this hopefully this week, right? Hopefully we can kind of see a couple of things start to transpire in here to give us a clue on whether or not if we can move up and start bull flagging our way to try to go for another move.

So we'll kind of watch it and see how this starts to to morph itself and see if it starts to kind of make a core clearer kind of correction style or if we we start to see money really start to pump in and volume start to pump back in again here as this range still just continues to go as it has since August 21st with today now being September 8th going on about, you know, 18, 19, 20 days here within this range. So not a lot has changed over this last week.

Bitcoin did really kind of exactly what it's done in the past cycles where it really just kind of gets really, really close to trying to get through that 50-week, but then kind of stalls out right underneath it. So that's not unusual for it to do that. And we've seen that many times throughout here and it just takes a little time to work it out. So the fastest we've ever been able to get through this thing before is four weeks.

So right now this puts us at what? I guess you could technically say we're working on our fourth week right now. You know, we've seen four weeks, we've seen eight, we've seen 15. So until we see this thing actually start to break and we can start coming up with ideas on how quick we can get out of here. I think still it's just going to be that same stuff focusing on this, right? The psychology of saying, "Hey, look, we are definitely beyond what have historically marked bottoms in here and after this a prolonged bear with an absence of breadth the breadth has finally emerged right where it should.

So, great time to be in the market, but it's kind of like with each range everybody had to kind of sit around and twiddle their thumbs throughout here and then suddenly everything happened within a 3-day period. That's kind of how the market works. We could just sit here for weeks on end and then suddenly a big move happens within a couple of days and everybody who was patient during that time and ended up getting paid.

And that's just going to be how we have to kind of wait this thing out. So, for me this week it'll be kind of focusing on this range to see if we're starting to reach complete range development for it to make a decision in here. In the coming days we'll probably be focusing more on this to see if we're going to get signs on if this will be a little bit more prolonged or if we're going to start showing signs that it's ready to go ahead and start shooting out and we'll just kind of keep our eyes closely on this uh throughout the rest of the week.

So, there you have it. Breadth is still open in the market. At some point it will probably shut off. However, it still is giving us more than just a tiny blip. We're now on a couple of weeks into this at this point and that's historically very very positive for the market on on marking a bottom in there. So, I'll check in with you guys tomorrow in markets in the morning. I hope that you had a wonderful extended weekend.

Kids started up school. Didn't take long for them to bring home a couple of airborne illnesses that they all share with each other. [laughter] As is tradition I caught it and that's what my weekend looked like, but uh we're on the path to recovery right now and uh hopefully by the end of the week we're firing at 100%, but uh either way keep you too much. Have yourselves a great day and a great week and I hope you had a great weekend.

Check out the newsletter over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. Comes with a 48-minute audio recording. We go deep deep deep into marking the bottom of the market here with breadth, momentum, on-chain historical signals all doing this when the bottom is in. Is the wait is over and confirmation has arrived. It's available at blockchainbacker.substack.com. There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter or you can just go directly within your browser.

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Have a good one. >> [music]