Awaiting THE BREAK as Bitcoin Price Chart, Altcoin Market and XRP in a Holding Pattern Under 50-Week transcript

[music] Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today we'll be taking a look at the Bitcoin price chart along with the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market which sits right back there at that 50week moving average. We'll take a quick peek over there at the XRP price chart as we sit kind of in this holding pattern here for Bitcoin as we've been in for about 4 weeks right now which of course is very similar to what the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market looks like as we really just have the big kind of anticipation sitting there at that 50WE.

We've seen this many times throughout history that we get back to that 50WE. We've really seen it in every market cycle after we've come off the lows, especially after going oversold, producing a bullish divergence and confirming that bullish divergence as we have all here throughout 2026. But it always takes time for us to work throughout that 50week moving average. In 2015, it took us about 15 weeks. In 2019, it took us about 4 weeks.

And right here in 2023, it took us about 8 to nine weeks to be able to finally get through that 50week moving average. It's kind of the last domino to fall before the 50we really kind of holds the market up into the upcoming bull cycle that comes next. And so everybody watches this with close eyes to see can we go ahead and confirm it. Problem is, of course, it just takes various amounts of times. We have various shapes that it ends up taking and we're left kind of in a purgatory moment as we sit here waiting for it to transpire and play out. really as we were building out this low down in here for Bitcoin down in the mid60s low60,000s the anticipation was that push back up to that 80 to $82,000 level as we historically see these types of structures do after we break through that 100week moving average thing I even said prior to that is you know if we do that then there's just so many variations of what we can end up doing from getting here and it's just going to be this waiting game until some type of liquidity event happens to actually push its way through again Everything insinuates that we're past the bottom.

There's really no argument for it based on what we've seen throughout history. I think what everybody is kind of hoping for, at least not everybody, but the people who are bearish, who were kind of like left behind looking for that $40 to $50,000, is that they're hoping we have another kind of 2015 event where there's like one more spring that happens here where there's like another $5 billion liquidation, which of course, as we all know, we already saw back in June. but in order to give them an opportunity to fill those bags.

So, there's a lot of uneasiness in here for people who were looking for another low to happen, but then it suddenly fires its way back up. Just absolutely decimating any types of short. You know, this event of the shorts was pretty much the same size as what we saw in regards to the liquidation. So, the longs that we had back in here, almost the exact same amount, you know. So, with this many people getting off sides and getting liquidated, then of course this many people getting off sides and getting liquidated.

Yeah, there's just going to be a disagreement in the market. This is how it goes. But what I keep trying to do is present that data to say here's where we're at. And unfortunately, there's not anything truly or any type of like epiphany that I can share with the market to say, hey, there's something different happening in here, unlike what we saw in the past week or two on saying, hey, that's where we're at. And typically, these things take a little bit of time to transpire in here.

And so, if I'm just going to come on here and just be completely honest, straightforward, and not waste too much of your time, is say, yeah, we're still in that same spot. XRP, you're still in that same spot, right? onchain technicals. It's like, you know, we've come out of the bare market. We've located the low down in here. We saw that when we hit 42 something billion coins in a loss. We know in 2022 we hit 42.5. It looks good.

It's just going to take some time and that's how it goes. And you have to remember that when we climb a wall of worry, they're usually met with the same kind of stuff. You know, even going back to this whole thing right in here, what is it? It's usually escaping to a new range and then building that range and then escaping to a new range and building that range, escaping to a new range, building that range and it's usually just a lot of ranging with sudden periods of significant price appreciation and then completely stalling out.

And what typically happens is we get near the end of each range. That's where sentiment comes completely deteriorated each time. Optimism, optimism, optimism and sentiment deterioration, sentiment deterioration, boom moves. Optimism, optimism. Oh, no, no, no, no, no. Boom. Then it moves on to the next one. And that's just how all ranges end up working when we're in a recovery. And that's where we're at. It looks fine.

Everything is great. It's just the typical stairstepping stuff, the wall of worry stuff. It's going to be a grind, periods of pausing, but otherwise right where we want to be after we've already done all the stuff of hitting these extreme levels here of what have marked past historical bare market bottoms. So, the thing I'm kind of just waiting for is something significant to signify we've gotten through the 50 week or for us to present something that structurally looks familiar to where we can provide some type of like range wave count or something like that.

But in the current spot that we're at where we're still just butdding up against this thing, we are still just kind of having to wait through this stuff and, you know, debating whether or not, hey, is it going to be something more like this where it doesn't take very long, right? And those answers just aren't there. But it's all the same stuff of coming off of the oversold levels, pushing back up here, right? We always seem to get to this level of about 56 RSI on the weekly time frame.

When we get back to that 50WE moving average, that's where we are, where we are coming off of the oversold. That's what we did back in here, getting back to that 50WE moving average after shooting out and getting up to about 56. And then over in here, doing the exact same thing, getting up here to about 56. And that's of course right when we get back to the 50 week. And so we're just in the waiting game. There's not much to say.

I don't feel like there's a necessity to put out a tremendous amount of videos. I ironically of I got sick and so that was kind of my excuse [laughter] to at the same time. You guys got to hear me in markets in the morning and how rough my voice was last week. You know, there's a lot going on in my personal life right now too. So I'm kind of grateful that it's just kind of tame, but I figured I'd at least check in with you guys and say, "Hey, everything still looks normal.

Market looks like it should. Nothing out of the ordinary in here for what we've always seen when we get beyond that, you know, max pain point in the market. Now, we're just waiting for it to kind of just structurally build something before we can go ahead and hoot and holler about getting through that 50week moving average. So, just kind of a little bit of a Monday morning check-in to say everything still looks fine.

It looks normal. You know, we've highlighted this. It has historically taken four weeks, 8 weeks, 15 weeks to get through that 50we moving average. The longer it takes, it doesn't really mean anything. Uh the significance of course was just getting the market structure to be able to do this and getting through those onchain metrics to be able to get here. So market looks good. Nothing to sit here and worry about by any means from my end.

Just a waiting game. Uh but of course waiting in a new environment, not in a bare market environment, but one where you know any type of corrections that come throughout in here will be met with thinking of them as opportunities. not in any way thinking about any type of corrections being the end all beall or a continuation of a bare market. Every signal has flashed that the bare market is over. For me, corrections are opportunities.

And right now, we're in the big weight. So, I won't fill you with too much fluff. I'll just be straight and direct. The market looks great. We've done everything that we've done that is sinuated that past bare markets are over. We're right back at the 50-W week. And this is just a standard process that we go through as we wait for it to crack. So, we'll keep it light, tight, and bright. We'll keep it brief. This will be a short week for me here on the YouTube channel.

There will be content today and tomorrow. Uh there won't be a markets in the morning on Wednesday and unlikely to be a video there on Thursday or Friday. Um barring that there's some type of huge move that happens in the market. So I'll keep you guys updated on that stuff. Uh there will be a new newsletter that will be published tomorrow morning. Uh it's a pretty good one. We really dive into a lot of things going on in the market including like the altcoins and uh what categories are seeing the reactions happen throughout the market whether it's development activity or percentage drawd downs or or those token value acrruel mechanisms if those are actually the metrics that have been mattering to see who is reacting the best.

There is a very clear distinction on which categories are doing better. So that's analyzed and all in the next newsletter that'll be published tomorrow morning. In the meantime, of course, you can check out the one that was published here a couple of weeks ago. The wait is over. confirmation has arrived with the bright momentum onchain and historical signals. I'll do this when the bottom is in with a 48minute audio recording.

You can get caught up on this one and then check the one that'll be published tomorrow morning over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com or you can just go directly within your browser. Otherwise guys, I hope you had a wonderful weekend. I'll check in with you tomorrow and I want to thank you so much for watching.

If you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live. As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser. But if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back. Have a good one.

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