The Significant BREAK, Bitcoin Price Chart & Altcoin Market Surge Past Historical Moving Average transcript

[music] >> Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the blockchain backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today we'll be taking a look over here at the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market along with the altcoin market, the XRP price charts, and of course the Bitcoin price chart as we've broken through the 50-week moving average with yesterday's close or last week's weekly candle close being back above it for the first time since November of 2025.

So, a solid 10 months spent there underneath the 50-week moving average. Last week we got an official close. This week so far at least we're seeing a continuation continue here. So, in this issue of course we'll take a look at the bigger time frames of what's going on in the cryptocurrency market, what does this typically symbolize when we see this happen, and well, is it really just symbolic of all past bear market recoveries?

And the reality is it's unequivocally the practically exact same. So, for the past several months of course we've shown how we went completely oversold like we capitulated back there in June of 2022 over here in February of 2026. The total market cap of the cryptocurrency market hits oversold and then produces a bullish divergence coming off of those lows as we liquidate over here just like we did with FTX back in 2022 after pushing our way back up and confirming that bullish divergence in there on the relative strength index.

We've sat here at the 50-week moving average like we did back there in 2022 over here in 2026. Throughout past recoveries into bull markets, it's taken anywhere from 4 weeks to 8 weeks to 15 weeks to be able to break through that 50-week moving average. Took 8 weeks back in 2022. It took 4 to 5 weeks back there in 2019. And here we are, same story, 4 to 5 weeks able to break through there and continue cranking up that relative strength index.

Now, the interesting thing about this week, of course, is that after we break through that 50-week, we can see finally, after 10 months of a suppressed MACD, we finally go breaking back upwards over here on the MACD right as we crack there through that 50-week moving average. They go back to 2022 for the first time for us to be able to turn that thing back on after being stuck down here all this bear market. Hey, look, it turns back on, right?

The bear market was over. It was in recovery at that point. Now, I'll leave those dotted lines there on the screen just cuz that's the marker of where we were at, but you can see that, of course, is where the breadth finally opens for the market at the same time, which we've had no breadth, just like all past bear markets. Same story, breadth starts waking up, things are looking good, and now really just there's no argument for the bears anymore.

Really, there hasn't been an argument. I think a lot of people kind of held their hat on really hoping that they would maybe get some type of liquidation to come there off of that 50-week, like we saw back in 2015. That's typical whenever we have a move that just kind of surges there off the low, and people want to get a re-entry in there after missing it because in this type of recovery, which we've talked about many times where we go back and back test the underside of the capitulation level, if this thing doesn't come back and give them a re-entry, that you're forced to have to enter into an upward grind.

But, we got the total altcoin market cap to be able to get through it, Bitcoin, and the total market cap. So, we'll kind of talk about just this spot. And I wrote about this in the newsletter that was published last week on the reactions that we have here at the 50-week moving average. And I'll kind of go through some of this stuff here in this video just on the technical portion of the newsletter. You know, one of the things we keep talking about in this environment is having conviction.

Typically, when you go from a moment where everybody is screaming for 40 to 50,000 dollars and then the price skyrockets up, you know, you got a lot of people that get wrong-footed. And so then you have them kind of screaming that they want lower prices or they're screaming for another liquidation to come or you have people who like chase the candle and so they're very low conviction entries and it can be just kind of a washing machine of emotions that happen after that price rises of happening.

And so the kind of theme for the last several weeks has been conviction, understanding where we're at. The on-chain behavior tells us one thing, the technicals tell us another thing. You know, like kind of pretty much a mocking clarity act, right? During an entire bear market, pretty much the masses getting just bombarded with influence or content telling them, "Oh, price is going to only rise once the clarity act passes." But let's Let me just read this to you like I understanding why the conviction mattered, why Let me say this, breaking through the 50-week moving average that that's always marked a bottom.

We not only did we already have a ton of things we could have not even needed that, right? Because what did we get? We got the relative strength index to confirm the bottom, right? We've had MACD, we've had on-chain, and now we've had breadth. So yeah, I think every I think people who just like missed every single thing had to hang their hat on like a 50-week moving average. Do you actually think that the thing that confirms it?

No, there was a a thousand things that confirmed it ahead of time, but one thing that was frustrating to me is that it felt like the people who were perpetuating that we would see some type of crash or that this 50-week moving average really mattered. Or of course we're your loud proponent bears, right? Like without further rambling, let's just put this into context of where we're at right now. So we'll kind of go through a little bit of this newsletter right in here and kind of show you where we've been, what the market's been scared of, why I didn't think it would happen, and then like we can kind of build from that and like look forward to where we're heading to next, right?

And so last week, on my newsletter blockchainbacker.substack.com, the crypto market is still fighting against resistance after breaking down from the 100-week moving average in February, going oversold, creating a bullish divergence on the relative strength index, then confirming that strength by firing back to the 50-week moving average. So, these are all things we've talked about here on the channel, right? Talking about how we look, we've gone oversold down in here.

We've always done this. We've already had our death cross happening here where the 50-week crosses through the 100-week moving average. We've always seen that. And then after firing out of these oversold conditions, creating a bullish divergence and confirming it, where we at? We're back at this 50-week moving average. Now, this is repetitive behavior we've seen in every completed crypto bear market where the market has to fight against the 50-week moving average for various prolonged periods.

We've seen as short as 4 weeks in 2019, 8 weeks in 2023, and as long as 15 weeks in 2015 before the market was able to break through that resistance level. Our anticipation prior to this move is that we would reach around the $80,000 mark to confirm the bottom was in for Bitcoin per the July 31st newsletter. First, we'll need to see the relative strength index break above the May high with a price rise back to around $80,000, right?

So, I'm quoting here from July, this chart right in here. And this is nothing that was hidden from you guys. We can go back and just look at the thumbnails of the videos that I've posted for the last several months and just this nice little group of them here from the last 2 months. And we can see there is that is right there. There it is right there. There it is right there. Here it is again. And there it is. There it is.

There it is. There it is. There it is, right? So, this is obviously very repetitive here on the YouTube channel as well. That what we were looking for was a price rise back to about $80,000. And to see that relative strength index be able to push its way back up there above 51 to 52 to confirm the bullish divergence over here on the Bitcoin price chart. We can easily see that that happened quite a while ago, right? That happened back there in August that we were able to push above there, confirm that, get back to that 50 week.

And so, this is what we're looking for and obviously we got it, right? So, price has reset exact level that was anticipated. However, becomes a lot more nuanced and cloudy before cast and anticipating the changing winds of Bitcoin in the crypto market as it battles this location. The 50 week moving average has produced various results every time as mentioned earlier. These are the three various paths we've taken after the past three completed bear markets and return to the 50 week moving average and we literally are left with up, down and sideways.

As in 2019, we just fired right through it. 2023, we waddled at it for like we said earlier, 8 to 9 weeks. It got out, but then just, you know, continued ranging for 6 months afterwards. And then 2015, that's where you get another liquidation to happen in the market. One could argue that all three were different, so this one will be as well, which is true. But, I think what would rattle the market the most is the 2015 variant where it has a spring phase as the Wyckoff accumulation ending.

Jim Forte's anatomy of a trading range, that's your spring right there. We've talked about that for a long time for those who have watched this channel for multiple years, we've definitely gone through Wyckoff accumulation, last point of support or the spring phase that can conclude it. And frankly, that's what happened in 2015 is we had our selling climax happen there in early 2015 with your automatic reaction, secondary test, secondary test in phase B, 50 week resistance followed by spring, which was one more liquidation.

So, while it's certainly possible to be two-thirds of the way through Wyckoff accumulation and setting up for a spring or last point of support where it just does an ABC sideways, part of me does want to rule out the whole spring phase. The bears are holding their hopes on this happening tremendously, grasping on for dear life that it comes. However, my instincts tell me we've already seen it and they already had their chance.

Back in May, I discussed how we typically see another liquidation in the crypto market before the uptrend begins. We usually see the capitulation phase like what we saw back in February of this year, then the market settles, and then there's one last liquidation before the uptrend starts. From the May 14th issue titled one push needed to open breadth, if Bitcoin breaks through $82,000 with conviction, then the historical indicators imply we don't go below $60,000 on the next pullback.

So long as it is stuck below $82,000, all the accumulation styles and structures are still in play. Kind of chaos, right? So the thing to be mindful of, if it isn't capable of escaping, is that at every bottom after every capitulation, there is typically one more liquidation that happens before the recovery begins. The liquidation does not always set a new low. In 2015, there was a final liquidation before the uptrend began without a new low.

This is the one that I think a lot of the bears have held their hat on and praying that they end up getting here from the 50-week moving average. The same goes for 2019, and just like 2015, there wasn't a new low. And of course, in 2022, we had FTX, which did set a new low, at least for Bitcoin. If we see headlines run across the news wire of $2 billion plus liquidated from the cryptocurrency market, there is a strong chance that's one of the last, if not the last liquidation before an uptrend begins.

So as we know, on the larger time frames that this is a typical bottom-building behavior, it's those tricky and pesky bottom structures that are always different which create the challenge. We can see on the breadth indicator and the moving averages that $82,000 is an important level. It's a major resistance and likely tells us a story on if prolonged accumulation will continue or if breadth can open more quickly, implying the historical signal that the true bottom is in.

I concluded that issue in the summary by saying that, but until that happens, this is still an accumulation structure that is bottom-building. The market is right at the crossroads of proving whether it's ready to leave the bear market structure behind or whether it needs one more liquidation event before the recovery becomes obvious. Even in the event there is a liquidation without a new low being set, it likely causes on-chain metrics to hit all historical levels we've seen in each cycle.

So, it's likely not something to be afraid of, but to be ready for in the event that it comes. That was May 14th. Then as June rolled around, we watched nearly $5 billion get liquidated from the cryptocurrency market with a massive long liquidation. See, the actual example of seeing a spring-style liquidation in the market like 2015 was what already happened there in June, right? My argument is we looked for one more liquidation, but when we see this historical example that there's typically one more liquidation in the market that we talked about in May before June rolled around, that's what that was.

And so, we had it. So, the point I'm making is that yes, it's a struggle here at the 50-week moving average, and it can just waddle around making various shapes and patterns, but the element that many are likely holding on to is their bear thesis was already offered there in June. And I make that statement by quoting past issues showing the historical behavior of the market that a secondary liquidation does usually happen at the lows, and the 2015 spring was during that cycle ending.

It was used in the example that we already had that back in June when everyone flipped bearish looking for 40 to 50,000 dollars. Essentially, this cycle's 10 to 12K. Otherwise, the market still looks exactly like it does after all bear markets have bottomed even with the breadth opening, which you guys have all seen and have even shown in this video already. It's just very symbolic of navigating the wall of worry climbing here where a lot of money was offsides and is now placed with low conviction.

We rattled around the 50-week moving average in various ways every cycle, but what we know based on all historical behavior is that once on-chain and technicals have mirrored these behaviors, this is just a standard part of climbing its way back up fighting the 50-week moving average. Right, so a lot of disagreement out there on how we're going to react there at the 50-week, but I I think that right, that there's just major proponents, major content creation out there still selling that idea that we would see a spring phase, which tells me, like at the top of the market, everybody was very behind.

And I think right now, again, everybody is very behind. If you've watched this channel for the last several months, there's been really no argument on on whether or not the bottom is in. So, we we've expected the bottom for months, but like anybody who's still having it like kind of morph their thesis and think about it of where we're at right now. But they're just kind of at square one on coming up with thesis, right?

When we've been like 10 steps ahead the whole time. And that I don't say that to be a braggart. I do that to say it like we we think we have a good idea of where we are, that we've expected that, hey, we're shooting our way back up in here, but now we're met with these challenges of, you know, how are we going to react here at these particular locations and what is this accumulation going to look like or these corrections look like?

And if it's not going to be drawn out, what would it be if it was going to happen faster? Because the difference between 2022 and 2026 is that there was a big macro decline that happened during that time. We had a major breadth struggle happening here in the Russell 2000. And now we have this major divergence, this huge separation that has happened between macro markets and between crypto this time. And like I've kind of joked about it in my videos that like I I don't like to come on here and sell hype.

That's what content creation is in the cryptocurrency market. That's why people like legitimately believe in a $1,000 XRP price is because they're just sold hype. That's the name of the content creation game in this space. That is why so many content creators turned against me in the bear market and people just stopped retweeting my stuff or commenting or agreeing. People who normally share my content completely stopped during the bear market and kept saying, "It's not a bear market." Because often times the truth doesn't sell.

Hype sells. So, don't like to come on here and produce a lot of hype, but I like to show you the data and say, "There's an argument for a recovery to happen much faster this cycle than in past cycles, or at least in the past cycle, because a lot of the issues that we had the whole cycle, which I wind and complained about, were breadth. Those issues are resolved now, and there's this argument that it could catch up much faster." And so, if it's going to catch up much faster, how could you get there?

And this has been the argument made that we've gone through capitulation. I'll zoom out a little bit in here, right? These were all the discussions we had in here heading into a bear market that we would kind of head back over here to this previous cycle's peak, just like we did over here, that we head back to the previous cycle's peak in here, and that this move that we saw where we liquidate, that's like a spring phase or a $5 liquidation that happens in this market, is symbolic of happening after backtesting the capitulation level of the market, which is what we did in here, right?

We backtested the capitulation, we liquidate, we liquidate. Now, how can we get out of here much faster? This would be our example. And so, this move that we saw right in here gives a lot of strength to the argument that we're recovering much faster in this market than we have in past markets. And I hate saying that cuz people just run away with that. I'm not talking about you guys, the viewers. I'm talking about the content creation.

Going to hype you to gazillion outer space faster recovery and bounce. >> [laughter] >> But that this is how it's playing out, right? And so, the good news is with the move that we saw in here, it's still it's still gives argument to this that it may be a faster recovery. Now, the thing is we haven't had a range build in here. So, you would think if we're going to build a range, right? Clearly, there's going to be a bigger struggle zone up here, you know, just under $100,000.

Um but, you know, that this could be like our first wave in here, right? Second wave, third wave, and then we have a lot of ranging that takes place throughout in here before we can bust out of there. But, I would argue that this looks the most symbolic of what we're doing right now. Nothing about it has deviated from our discussions from a year and a half ago to really almost 2 years that we've been following it, looking at it through this lens in here.

And that if you had to ask me, what do I think is the most likely path, this still seems most likely path due to the massive divergence between macro and between crypto right now. But, I do still think we're likely going to have to wait on the IGV to be able to produce it. So, it does likely mean ranges will happen in here. It's kind of crazy to think that ranges won't happen along the way. That some more serious ranges will rather than these short-term ones.

And my best guess on where all the ranging and struggling kind of happens at, it's it's in this area where we had to range at a lot previously. Right? That's what you typically have to do. That's usually where we're going to range out. But, that our true full-blown, you know, breakout in the cryptocurrency market happens once macro gives us that kind of expansionary move at the same time. In particular with the IGV. You know, my thoughts are with the IGV is that, you know, we're still going to keep ranging in here.

And it's that moment of really busting out that propels Bitcoin, which then propels altcoins, which then gets Bitcoin dominance to go kaplunk. And my thoughts are this is probably going to be the area where the cycle comes to a completion, at least for the altcoin market. Probably Bitcoin, too. And right now, there's just absolutely no signs of even being in that or being in an alt season right now. Right? So, like we can see prices are rising in the crypto market, but we know what alt seasons look like and what happens when there's just an absolute runaway happening in risk-on environment.

And nothing has changed. We're still in this exact same range, which means the market is in a as a whole is recovering off the lows, but there's no like extraordinary risk taking that's being isolated into altcoins themselves rather than the whole market. So this is just a broad-based recovery that is happening. And the thing that we're going to have to wait on to find out who's going to be our big winners in the altcoin market is probably going to be the expansion happening over in IGV, Bitcoin being able to set a new all-time high and then Bitcoin dominance going for plonk.

So where are we in the cycle? Obviously way past the bottom. The 50-week moving average for those who like just had cognitive dissonance and ignored everything prior for the last several months when it comes to on-chain and technicals. Well, that was your last That was your last hope to get your spring. But this has been my most bullish thesis, right? Like I've never had a thesis where it's like we go straight up in a line, [laughter] right?

This one has been my most bullish thesis and the model that I have followed for the last couple of years. And so in this model we have our liquidation, our recovery pushing up and then we go like ranging. So like still means like there there could still be a couple of months really of some excitement that happens in the market. Um but I think that everybody does truly care about the what? You care about old season. You care about face melting green candles.

You care about this thing going kerplunk. And I think this thing goes kerplunk once Bitcoin sets an all-time high and that we're going to probably have to get through this kind of stuff first and then go push for the big move after that. So our context that we've talked about for the last several weeks to months has been hey, the bottom is in. The months prior to that were of course bottom building. Here's the things we're looking for for more confirmations of bottoms being built.

Then we got all of them. Now we've been just been presenting the case the bottom's behind us. Now we're transitioning into you know, what can it look like for us to go into expansion and like what's like the most bullish outlook you could have based on how the market has been behaving and based on the based on the way the market's been behaving, it seems like we could probably see some excitement here in the market. There's going to be corrections.

You got it there's I'm not going to tell you what to do, but conviction is important right now obviously. But truly it's of course about getting that Bitcoin dominance to collapse and that's going to take time. That's going to take until we can actually get Bitcoin into an all-time high most likely, right? And for XRP or something to set a new all-time high uh most likely going to take Bitcoin setting a new all-time high as that's when every single XRP bull run has happened historically.

Um I know people love to say, "Well, yeah, this time the story it could be different." And then and I get that. I understand that. Uh I've been making XRP videos and everything for 7 years. I've kind of stuck to that exact same belief that I don't really buy the stories. I buy the technicals. I buy the the correlations of macro markets, Bitcoin, and the crypto market and that has still panned out to be the the the correct way to look at the market even though I've been hit with a hundred thousand different "Yeah, but what about when this happens or this narrative or that one?" Right?

Uh if something different wants to play out, fine. I'm positioned for it. Uh but, you know, when I come on here, I do try to set reasonable expectations without trying to blow that hype machine up too big. We likely got to wait for Bitcoin, but we've done things that it symbolized getting past the bottom. Now we've gotten through the 50 week. I think we can argue a faster recovery moving into the market and I'm I'm not surprised to see us get through that 50 week.

After, you know, this is the fifth week. One, two, three, four, number five gets us through. Here we are. Now we're on week six. Right right now still kind of some excitement in here. It's probably going to hit a range that's going to kind of create some type of sentiment deterioration, uh but that's down the wall. I it it seems like we're probably in a moment of excitement happening here right now. So, I don't know.

A lot of rambling in here, but just kind of showing you the way I've been viewing the market that you know, we've been past the bottom. We've had the on-chain historical signals. We've had the technical signals. When Bitcoin gets through that 50-week, right? The bottom's well behind us every time. I would try to refrain from uh too much excitement in regards to altcoins until we actually see something actually materialize in regards to we're seeing dominance actually break down.

Not that we won't see price rises of of altcoins with Bitcoin, but refrain from the $1,000 per XRP calls. But, otherwise, the market looks great. Congratulations for those who made it through this. This was a long battle to go through this. I mean, just looking back at September of last year, you know, we we're talking about the top. You know, we started bear week there in September of last year. Here we are at the end of September the next year.

And then 1 year later, here we are now finally going back to the upside of the 50-week moving average. So, it's a great time that they we don't typically go straight to all-time highs. We're typically going to find ranges and things, but um I think the argument of this type of recovery with the break that happened there in the 50-week in these last 2 days, 3 days maybe, adds more credit to it. So, it's exciting. It's fun to see green in the market, you know, especially after a period where everybody's been beaten down pretty good for really almost 2 years, right?

The price of XRP is lower right now than it was in November of 2024, right? That's your classic 2-year long bear market there. But, it's typically a process that we have to go through to get all the way back up. And even if we did go at like some type of speed like this that was extremely fast. If we just kind of look at the ratios of how quick we're playing out here in the market, even in an example of moving at that same speed, and let me be very clear with you.

I'm not predicting time. I'm just giving you an example if if people are set set into expectations right now that like hey, we're going to an all-time high next week cuz we broke through the 50-week moving average. It's typically not like that. It typically takes a little while to play itself out. And even in like an example like this, if you moved at that same velocity and you just continued climbing, you know, the all-time high at this exact speed all throughout in here, right?

It would take you until about April to get into a new all-time high, right? And we're sitting in September. So, that's still, you know, 6 to 7 months away before you would see all-time high actually get broken if you moved at that velocity. Very clear, not predicting time, not predicting it's going to take that long, but just to say, "Hey, look, like it's great. We're climbing." They should feel some relief to say, "Hey, look, the worst of it's behind us." They can look at the market through a different lens now if you've kind of been sidelined and you've been, you know, real worried, right?

Breaking that 50-week, right? That That's it. Now we're trying to figure out how fast can we get to the high. We can produce different models and different examples and things like that. Um, but it does typically take time. And if you're going to, you know, sell the hype for a machine of extremely quick recovery, right? Even in this example, that would still be like April, May of 2027. So, that's still, you know, 7, 8 months away.

So, we'll still have work we have to do before we can get to that moment where we are all hooting and hollering and screaming and saying, "We're living in it," right? And for the Bitcoin dominance to fall down on its face, right? That's a totally different phase that we have to work our way back to. But still, hopefully the people who have just been kind of wishy-washy on, you know, having that conviction, hopefully these past few days and weeks have helped alleviate that.

So, again, wonderful time to be in the market and to be here and especially for those who really just kind of traverse the whole thing and and made their way out of it. So, uh, I'm thrilled uh, that we get to break through the 50-week moving average. It's like marking a significant moment in the market, right? The challenge, of course, is to try to find the bottom and confirm the bottom way before you actually get to that 50-week moving average.

That's the hard part. If you, you know, once you've broken through that 50-week moving average, that bottom's usually pretty far behind you at that point. But it is, of course, nice to have that symbolism met there that we get through it. It's kind of like a new chapter in crypto, which is kind of wild. Like I spent a lot of time thinking about it. It's kind of like a new chapter in my life and my family's life starting at the same time.

If you caught my last video, thank you all for the well wishes and condolences of my wife's mother passing away last week. Um that's been It's been kind of like two bear markets going on in my life at the same time. Of course, we've had the crypto bear market and then, you know, just a an overhang in our lives at the same time. And two new chapters get to start at the exact same time. So, the show goes on. Congratulations to those who made it through the rough part of the market.

I hope you guys had a absolutely wonderful weekend and we'll check in on this all week. As I'm wrapping this up and Bitcoin is just knocking right there at $85,000. So, thank you guys so much for watching. You can check out the newsletter that I quoted here in this video over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. It comes with a 48-minute audio recording where we're talking about the shift is already happening. Altcoin leaders are merging.

Meme coins signal risk appetite. Market weights on Bitcoin and history shows what starts alt season. You know, this is interesting because we've spent a lot of time over these last few months when the market was really beaten down looking through those altcoins seeing things like, you know, developer activity, top 20 by market cap, utility, percentage drawdowns, tokenomics based on, you know, demand pushing into value accrual for the token, right?

What token actually benefits from more blockchain activity. And we kind of go through all those different sectors here in the newsletter to show where the leaders are emerging at based on those sectors and based on those data points and it's very clear in here. So, if you want to kind of learn a little bit about the altcoin market, there's a lot in here. And of course, in the past issues, you can go read from the past several months.

You get access to all of them if you sign up here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter or you can go directly within your browser. Otherwise, guys, have an absolutely wonderful day. I'll check in with you soon and thank you so much for watching. If you could, please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live.

As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial advisor, but if you ever need a pick-me-up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the Blockchain Backers got your back. Have a good one. >> [music]