Lavrov Told Rubio NO CEASEFIRE | Helmer: Trump Is Already a Lame Duck | John Helmer transcript

I see my guest in the background. I want to go to him because I always enjoy talking to him. We are joined. John Helmer Dances with Bears. >> How you doing, John? You doing okay? >> Good morning. I like your blue hat. Is that a change in color? >> It is a change of color. So, I used to And so I used to have um a series of hats, blue, gray, black, etc. And when I was traveling, I lost a few of my hats, which ended up with me only having my I think it's a gray one.

Um, I rebought this one. I used to enjoy my blue one. Blue is my favorite color. So, >> me too. Blue is my favorite color. >> Yeah. It's very powerful, though. It's kind of, you know, but it's okay. I'll make it work. I'll make it work. >> You do. I'm glad that you make something else work now. Okay. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, and and I'm glad that you could join me. Like I said, I always enjoy these conversations and I thank you for it.

Um, I want to start off I want to bounce to the elections, but I want to start off with Lavro first. Lavro was the UN Security Council yesterday and very strongly made the point regardless of what all of these Europeans want, regardless of what the Europeans and and Americans want, we're not having a ceasefire. We're going to continue with operations and some of those operations apparently has gotten around to going after the train stations.

At least that's the most recent reporting. Um the number of train stations and railways that have been hit and the locomotives that have been taken out of commission over the course of just the last few months, not even over the course of the last few years, >> right? >> This is a change. It seems to be a change. What do you make of this? I mean, obviously the Europeans want the war to stop and they want the war to stop before winter.

And even apparently Zalinski or at the very least the Ukrainians have been pushing for a ceasefire during the winter because they know what's coming into winter. Give me your take on this. Has this changed your point of view at all in regards to >> the situation of the war? I'm glad you mentioned Lavrov in the UN because um there is a change. I I'll emphasize it a minute, but um it isn't quite correct to say that the Russian side is hitting railways for the first time.

Um there have been a a regular periodic attacks on locomotives and on the electrical system driving um uh yes >> trains uh steam locomotion and diesel locomotion that's happening and it's been happening uh to make it sustained and permanently damage the infrastructure that delivers Polish supplies from NATO into uh the Lav area, Kiev area, and then onto the front, you have to damage um the locomotion and the power. Um that's easy much more difficult to fix and repair and restore.

That's the first thing. Um so locomotives were hit and are being hit and it the what's changing is the area. Um there's increasing focus on the Lav Real, the Polish NATO supply hub. The links between those two uh towns, one in uh the Ukraine border, one on the Polish border, that's relatively new. But what's also new is the sustained level of attacks, the intensity and the duration. So um that's what's happening. uh and I'll maybe we'll come back to that because there are changes on the front too and we come back to that um but let me focus on what Sergey Lavrov had to say but not in the security council so much as what he had to say in the meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Remember, this is the first time they've met since the Manila meeting uh when the purpose of Rubio calling that meeting was to tell the Russians to stop assisting Iran in targeting of US bases, CIA uh and contractor and US military bases uh in the in the Middle East. um Russia didn't oblige. Um and there's no sign that Rubio repeated repeated the warning. This is a very interesting um exercise in small print and I want to explain it to folks.

Um what's changing is what's obvious but not mentioned. Donald Trump's about to lose control of the House of Representatives. Uh there is nothing the man can do right now to reverse the negative momentum going into November 3. We're almost only a month away. Yeah. Four, four, five weeks. Negative momentum. I'm defining it as increasing gap between approval rating and disapproval rating. That's growing. the dis net disapproval for Trump's performance on inflation growing by four percentage points since we last spoke Jamal that you don't go into an election day with negative momentum you can go in with positive momentum you can lose it you can pull an October surprise all of those things you can do but not when you're facing negative momentum that's his problem what are the Russians concluding about this military intelligence, civilian intelligence, political types like you and me.

What do they conclude? Trump is facing the loss of the Senate as well. But not for anything the Russians have done. It's what the Iranians and Yemenes are doing in choking off the two gateways to uh fuel supplies uh that are damaging voters and Trump's uh personal attacks on Canada which are affecting the mountain states. So you've got diesel shortage affecting farmers in the farm states along the Canadian border. You've got um antagonism of a kind that's never been reached before with Canada affecting Alaska in the west, Maine in the east.

You've got all sorts of disapproval at the Mara constituency level. And in the mainstream Republican level, it extends all the way down to Texas. Now, suppose from a Russian point of view, you're looking at the outcome of November 3. That is to say, Donald Trump becomes a lame duck. Right now, lame duck for the last two years is something that's on Trump's mind. He expressly referred to it when he said the other day in the UN.

You can find it folks in the real call uh rollcall.com uh transcripts of his remarks that he said the Iranians think that they can wait past the election. I'm I'm summarizing. Trump says absolutely not. I give no credence. That's a big word for Donald Trump. I give no credence to the the elections. Well, of course he does because what will happen if he's a lame duck is much more dramatic for him. He faces then a negative momentum as he tries to save himself, his family, and his associates from all sorts of prosecution, investigations, especially led in the Senate.

The the Dem the Democrats are not going to impeach him. No, [laughter] they they're going to go for uh slow prosecution and let his men dangle. That's what they're going to do. They're going to make the pers walk. You know, it's a f it's an oldfashioned police technique for making the accompllices look guilty so you get the big boss. That's what they're facing. That's what lame duck is. Now suppose you're the Russian side and you're having a meeting on the sidelines of in New York City of all places and um the last round of meetings Rubio was busy warning publicly uh Lavrov lay off attacking us.

Okay, this time the Russians feel a lot better. They're facing uh the lame duck. And so this is what they did. They explained to the lame duck to get quacked. Okay, that's what's happening now. I'll explain how it looks. When um uh I'm shuffling papers here. You're fine. when when m when secretary Rubio uh issued his uh communicate uh summary of what happened uh he he actually it's two lines of text secretary of state Rubio met today with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly the secretary discussed the Russia Ukraine war and the USRussia bilateral relationship That's all he had to say.

No publicity about warnings, no muscle uh displays, nothing. On the other hand, Sergey Love Rob's foreign ministry issues a 1, two, three, four, five paragraph uh communicate uh and I'll just highlight what it says. It's starts a thorough this is get to the lame duck, get quacked. This is how you do it in diplomatic language. A thorough exchange of views was held on a wide range of issues on the bilateral and international agenda in the development of recent contacts at the highest level.

Remember that implies two things since Manila. First, the Iranians have continued to drive US bases back towards Israel, right? We know that. You've covered that. Second, there's been visits to uh the Kremlin and Akib by Witoff and Kushner, remember? And there've been there was the John Radcliffe CIA visit uh also right so uh that's we call those development of recent contacts at the highest level. Can't be higher than those those three chaps, can it?

Now um then they here's what happens. They say that the communicate, forgive me for going through the text, but this is how the message is conveyed and this is the change you you diagnose there. Um, during the discussion of the Ukrainian settlement, the Russian foreign minister drew attention to the close coordination between the Kiev regime and its European sponsors leading to destructive actions of Kiev. Close coordination, right?

We all know what that means. But he's being polite in the communicate. He's relieving the Trump administration of culpability and involvement in things we know they're directly involved in. >> Right. >> Radcliffe showed up to be told it. Okay. So, first point, we're telling you, we know about your close coordination with the Europeans, meaning you. Um, second, um, that's causing destabilization of world energy markets.

Fine, don't blame us. You are hitting our diesel production, but you're making far worse. You you are feeding uh the the diesel price increase by allowing your oil companies to export. You heard in the last 24 hours, 48 hours, uh, several Republican senators have have called, especially farm state senators have called for a US ban on diesel exports. That's executed by an executive order, right? President could do it with one of those glorious signatures.

He he scribbles, [laughter] >> right? and he calls in the press, what's left of the press in the White House pool, the psies, uh, not the the White House patis, not the White House pool anymore. And he says, "We're fixing the diesel supply, so farmers, I'm on your side. Vote for me." Right. Okay. Uh, so, uh, he's not going to do it. The energy secretary and the oil industry lobby are absolutely opposed to this. and uh and Scott Percent is saying we're thinking about it. >> I mean, you don't think about it when the pressure is on.

You just do it. That's the way executive orders work. That's if you're president of the United States. When you're a lame duck and trying to quack, this is what you do. >> You say, "We're thinking about it." Okay. So, the Russian side is saying, "We know you're thinking about it. The hell with you." Third, um, the unconditional commitment, this is this is key, the unconditional commitment, Lavrov says, of the Russian side to the achievement of the objectives of the special military operation, including on the way of political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict on the basis of the elimination of its root causes, is confirmed.

That that that [snorts] sounds a bit better in Russian. It sounds very clumsy in English, but the point here, what's the point? It's so long. Kirel Deitrif, forget negotiations for short-term ceasefires. Don't talk to us about an energy moratorum that we will stop hitting diesel u producing refineries. Remember what Trump had to say before this meeting? Trump said he told Zalinski, "There are plenty of targets. hit them.

Don't hit the Russian diesel refineries. It's affecting the oil price. That was a diversion, a distraction. No US farmer, no other US voter believes that. We know that because as I said at the beginning, dismay and disappointment and negative uh approval of Trump on inflation keeps going up. So, he can't jawbone his way out of that. He can only quack. Then we go on. Remember uh what what Rubio said was we discussed the Ukraine conflict and the bilateral relationship.

Oh no, says Lavra. We talked about international and regional issues included the situation in the Middle East, the caucuses that means US interference in Armenia and Azabai that's hostile to Russia, >> the Latin American Caribbean and Caribbean region that means Cuba, doesn't it? >> Yes. as well as the topic of countering illegitimate practices into in the international legal sphere by some multilateral uh institutions.

I'm not sure exactly what that means, but I think it's a blow against the US attempting to uh intimidate the International Court of Justice and other such institutions by saying you act against us, we hurt you personally, etc. I think that's what it means. >> So, uh, instead of just chatting about Ukraine, what he said here is we discussed the whole world in which you're running war fronts against us and our allies. Warfront in the south for Russia is Iran, the Middle East.

They don't mess with this hocus pocus term, West Asia. No, it's the Middle East. Any way you look at it, unless you're the global south, in which case it's the middle north. All right. [clears throat] >> Middle East says that's the way it says in Russian, [snorts] the Caucuses, Latin America and Caribbean. Um, in other words, we know what you're doing. You're escalating on all the other war fronts. And as you were saying Jamal be before when I'm waiting in the studio, Greenland is just reopened as a new Arctic war fighting front against the United States.

And the agreement text shows you how the Americans have taken over Greenland uh and will become the principal source of income for the Greenlanders because fishing business isn't going to be as good as fighting Russia business. And that's so Russ basically uh Love Robbers said you're doing it everywhere. Don't don't fool us that we can achieve short-term ceasefires or um partial uh agreements because they don't get at the root causes and that emphasis is not what Kuriel Dmitri has been whispering in President Putin's ear.

He can negotiate with the Americans. I'll continue. There's another line here. Preparations for the upcoming G20 events before the end of the year were discussed. What's that referred to? >> Yeah, >> it's a saying our president has been invited by your president to come to the G20 summit. Well, maybe he will and maybe he won't, but we won't put up with the kind of visa troubles you throw in in the way of the delegation.

We don't trust you to invite him in an appropriate summit. And why should Lavro make it so clear even in such language? Why? Just have a look at what President Gi Jinping just did in Washington. He gets off his plane uh unable to walk down the gang plane by his wife and he's doesn't take the same car into the helicopter that Trump uses to fly with his wife back to the White House. He gets in a separate car to drive 23ks from the air base to downtown Washington.

He doesn't stay with uh Trump. Second, that's a way of saying thanks for the big military display, bombers over flying and all sorts of [laughter] things going off. Thanks for that. I'll I'll catch my own cab into the into the [laughter] downtown. Right. Second, he doesn't stay in Blair House. They turn on. The US says, "We're giving unprecedented military honors and display for our very good friend uh Xiinping." However, he's not declined to stay in the official guest house of a visiting head of state Blair House across the street.

Nice um 18th century mansion uh complex across the street from the White House. He's not going to stay there. He used to stay there. Not this time. He's going to stay in the now renamed Waldorf Hotel in Washington DC. In fact, he's taken big chunk of the hotel for his huge security detail and others. Maybe maybe he needs the security. Maybe he likes the protection, but whatever it is, he doesn't want to stay in the there's no no place in Washington that is thoroughly bugged in the walls as Blair House.

He's not going to stay there. Why would you stay there? His own men bring his own secure capsules and they use them in the hotel. So if Xiinping given all these military honors, guns going off and planes over flying to show what the greatest military display in the world. If he doesn't trust Trump, this is what Lavrov means. Preparations for the upcoming G20 events before the end of the year were discussed. meaning you insult our boy, he doesn't come.

You guarantee uh what we want and we'll tell you what we want. He may come, but he's not going to parade on your platform to make you look the peacemaker that you, Donald Trump, think as a lame duckface in Congress, you need to get the Republicans to win and hold the White House. So, it's a new condition. Love Rob just table and we went on. [snorts] The Russian side also stressed the need for early correction of bilateral relations in accordance with the agreements of the presidents of Russia and the United States especially in light of the intensified discussion the prospects for economic cooperation cultural humanitarial exchanges blah blah.

What's that mean? answer early correction of bilateral relations. They it they've been discussing this since Trump came in in January 2025. Nothing's happened right says it. Including transfer of the functioning of the diplomatic missions of the two countries to normality. No more shutting down consulates, Russian ones. Second, including the return of de facto confiscated Russian property in the United States. Meaning, give us back our duter in Virginia.

Give us back our house in Seattle. That's really what he's saying. And we've been talking, he says, for months, years actually. And what he's saying also is the US side refused to ad to develop and find solutions for things like that. made the con that solution and that negotiation conditional on the Russian side making the concessions on the Ukraine war settlement. But Lavrov says that's out the window. We want root causes, not temporary ceasefires that will enable you to resupply, the Europeans to resupply um the uh Ukrainians firing platforms and no uh concentration on other targets except for diesel refineries.

This is out the window. So this is really a remarkable display albeit in very discreet and muffled language of the Russian side expressing by Lavrov not Ushakov the president's spokesman and not Kir Dmitri the president's other spokesman and not Dmitri Pescov the spokesman of the spokesman who says almost nothing from time to time every day Um, no. This is a clear declaration. We think that the Trump administration is heading into lame duck status.

So, we're prepared to wait. Now, that's not original. I happen to know have been confirmed that the Indian national security advisor Ajit Dval the the veteran national security advisor prime minister Modi told Rubio last year that if you want to heavy us on secondary tariff punishment for our buying Russian oil to meet our energy priorities we will wait for you to lose power. I don't even know the exact language, but he was saying, "You can quack now all you like, but when you're a lame duck, it won't matter.

We will wait." And that's a political confidence of a man confidence [clears throat] of hanging on to power until 2028, telling a man that [snorts] who's not going to have power in 2028 at all. he's going to face a succession that's as hostile as the Congress or uh as diffident and different as either Vance or Rubio or someone else. So in other words, I I'm saying this is a change. It's a change of Russian confidence in seeing Trump becoming weaker and that reverses the Kir Ditri line which he continues to advertise three or four times a day on the tweet stream that uh supports Trump supports Melania Trump's humanitarian concern for children supports the overthrow of Chancellor Merittz in Germany. supports white racist supremacism uh expressed from one end of Europe to another.

That's what Dmitri does. White racism for Europe. He he doesn't even disguise it as an immigration issue anymore. And um it's a mistake. It's a fundamental mistake on the part of Dimmitri and the business Russians he he deals with he represents he speaks for compared to the Russian intelligence agency assessment and the foreign ministry assessment that Russia cannot base its future relations with Europe in the expectation that the AFD in Germany pardon me folks sometimes I get it ADF I sometimes mix up Germans with Israelis and sometimes I mix up IDF, Israel Defense Forces with AD AFD ADF.

There is, I suppose, a difference between German fascism and Israeli fascism. But sometimes my tongue is tied. So we're talking AFD, >> AFD. They are now moving in favor of remilitarization. They [snorts] will not be the savior of Russian hopes, Dimmitri's hopes in some respects the president's hopes for peacemaking between Europe and and Russia. The same is happening in France with the Russian, the national rally of Le Pen and Bardella.

They issued a statement against Russia last Saturday. And we'll see the same process in the UK. We we'll see it in Italy. We'll see it all over Europe. Now, Lavrov has been longer at this game where the foreign ministry, the intelligence services agreeing, understands that the Europeans aren't going to move against war for Russia. So basically what we have here is the understanding Russia faces permanent war that Trump is facing lame duck status and in a and Russia has to negotiate root causes or fight on and that's where you began Jamal.

So I'll shut up and you can go on. >> No you're perfectly fine. That's a great breakdown. That's a fantastic breakdown because I even named a video about Lavough um in the very beginning. So no, this is a great breakdown of I guess we can call it confidence. It's confidence. It's seeing a US political system fractured to put it mildly. Um and frankly not working all that well. and also this kind of recognition that we've been talking about where they need to win it on the battlefield because they're not necessarily going to get what they want out of Europe.

And [snorts] I'm glad you brought up the AFD and I'm glad you brought up um the national rally because a lot of people are pitting their hopes on this kind of breakdown in the European political system that is on this kind of warr front with Russia. And your point is your hopes are not going to be fulfilled [laughter] like AFB is not going to do it like whatever they're saying now when they get into political power they're going to do something else um >> in order to get power in they can't no matter how weak merits and the CDU appear to be in state elections everybody understands state elections don't translate directly into federal elections you get to vote vote in protest against the federal government by really giving them a kick in the head in the state.

So AF and in Eastern states, Berlin and the other states where AFD has done well. These are East Germans, okay? And they've been disadvantaged compared to the West and they haven't been brainwashed like the Western um German states. So sure they're going to vote for AFD, but the AFD in and the dynamics are the same all over Europe. The fracturing that you just mentioned, Jamal, of political of of voter sentiment means that in order to take to capture the chancellory, the AFD has to head into the center where the supporters, the business support, military industrial complex, the intelligence services and the media of Germany are.

And in order to do that, they have to accept remilitarization as a vote getter. And in order to justify that they uh they will buy the BND fabrication of the Leipig drone incident and all the other nonsense the fabrications in order to acquire a position in a coal in a coalition government in Germany. They have to do that and they will. They like most politicians want power. They don't want principle. They they don't even have a program for Germany that gets be gets them beyond election day.

And that's what's happening in Germany. In France, France is very close now to gas rationing. Would you believe >> petrol rationing on coupons to go to the gas station? Um what hap what happened? Why will France be the first to do such things or to talk about such things? Answer. Look how weak Mron is. Look at how divided uh this his party and the other um so-called right-wing parties outside the national rally that usually vote um Macron and his predecessors Sarosi uh and the others in how why they h their weakness now depends on being able to exercise emergency power.

Macron is now ruling by decree, not by parliament, >> right? >> And by mobilizing emergency measures and blaming the Russians. He holds on to power. What else do politicians do for a living? And so this process is not working to Russia's advantage. It isn't. We wish it were, but it isn't. Okay, that's that's the reality and loverov is expressing it and the reality is very very clearly not to Kirald Demetri's liking. You mentioned the warfront and I'm glad you mentioned that.

Um or seems to be I guess they're taking bits and pieces of it. I I don't want to give a percentage. I think the last time I was speaking to somebody, I think it was like 30% what the Russians had effectively taken uh Mcroto Slaviance that's being surrounded. They're being hit by in fact I have video of Kiev being hit basically KV in flames on a constant basis meaning by Lancing air. This is disastrous for Ukraine. This is an operation.

This is critical for Ukraine at this point. You mentioned warfront or the front lines. Go into that for me since you brought it up. >> What's significant or what's different on the front lines that you're noticing? >> Several things. First of all, I don't want to disappoint our podcast audience. If you're here to to watch blood spill on the ground, you're in the wrong place. We are not talking about flames in the sky and pillars of black smoke and newsbreaking violence on the front.

The pictures are are grabbers, yes, but they don't make podcast sense. They make podcast clicks, yes, but not sense. Here's why. The we are in a technologically new type of warfare. Drone warfare makes it much more difficult to hold territory. In the old-fashioned infantry advances, infantry kills or drives off the defenders or the the enemy and holds the territory, runs up the flag and administers what it's got. This is not what's happening on the front. drone warfare and the Ukrainians are good at it.

Russian military accepts they're good at it as the Russian military devises the counter measures for Ukrainian drone warfare. Ukrainian drone warfare is so good that they're being integrated Ukrainian drone war units into NATO operations all over Europe. Okay. What's happening when you're in a drone warfare situation is that the the gray zone of contested territory is large and what the the Russian method operationally now is encirclement.

Encircle uh various cities with a priority for the armies of finalizing full control of Daetsk. It's not full control yet. Finalizing full control of Lugansk. Not full yet. Increasing um penetration and control of Zapperia and Harrison which are far from under Russian control. Yes. Legally part of the Russian Federation. Annexed uh supported by popular referendum. Yes. Dejura. Yes. practically no. So what we have then is on [snorts] the one hand competition from the different six uh armies heading westward for resources deception operations so that the Ukrainians, the Americans, the Europeans and the NATO intelligence boys don't know where the Russian emphasis on strike will be. um you have penetration continuously.

I I read the defense ministry's bulletin every day. So you can see the change of emphasis the northern army around Kharkov. Um the the central each one of these operations can be made into a bloodthirsty podcast to draw in the audience. Yes, folks, the Russians are moving westward. Yes, it's happening but very slowly and in such a way. Take a look at the casualty levels. The casualty levels on the Ukrainian side remain high.

The defense ministry calls says it's between 1300 and400 a day. That's serious. So when Trump announces you casualties on the battlefield of 27,000 as he did this week, he's talking Ukrainian casualties. The Russian casualties is substantiated by media zone, a BBC potentially propagandistic platform that monitors death notices and probate filings in Russia to establish the database of who dies dies in war, who's a war casualty on the Russian side.

That shows very substantial dim demon of casualty levels. That's the way the wars been fought on the Russian side against the Ukrainian side. But, and this is a huge but, the Kiev regime, its European supporters and its deep state US supporters think they can go on fighting without a people, without an economy. You can destroy the the Ukrainian economy's capacity to export grain. You can destroy its capacity to import anything through the Odessa port complex.

Forget the Black Sea Ukraine. Forget it. It's gone. You're going to be landlocked soon. Focus on the rivers if you want to trade. That's how it you can do that. you can sustain a higher level of electricity war, something we've been talking about for ages. What's different there is that not just a a a a series of attacks as a has generally occurred between September and November 2022, 2023, 2024 and so on. This time it's sustained.

Sustained means you can't repair quickly. and the Ukrainians withheld from the United States and the Europeans have the capacity to repair. The reason they can't repair is this the attack levels are being sustained uh and the incoming supply routes rail, road uh and so on those are being cut off. All right. So what we have is a KV regime whose business isn't exporting grain or chicken eggs to the European Union. That's what Ukraine is good at.

Eggs and wheat and other grains. It used to have a steel export industry. The Russians just blew up Victor Pinchuks in a pipe. Finally, finally that guy, the man who made a fortune robbing Russian reinsurance companies has 200 million he stole has finally lost his interpipe plant. Okay, Russia's destroying their steel [snorts] and metallurgical businesses. Now, what happens when you've demolished the economy? What's its big export?

Mercenaries killing it becomes an idlib. Idlib. Yeah, it becomes a a sanctuary for war fighting forever against Russia. And it's exactly located where the German occupation uh put it between uh let's say 41 and 43 when the Germans evacuated having been defeated by the Red Army. So what you have is a very unusual combination of common political and financial interests. Zalinski regime can continue so long as the money keeps pouring in.

It has every incentive to continue fighting. The permanent war against Russia whose strategical purpose, its rationale for the last h 100red years is break up Russia, destroy Russia, create as many fronts against Russia, south, west, east, north, create as much trouble and break up the Russian Federation or the Soviet uh confederation. Whatever's left, hit it all the time forever. until it can't function as its resource capabilities, population capabilities, ideological commitment, its power in Europe would always have represented to the Europeans and the Americans.

So the strategical objective is fight on forever but for the each battlefield running at a different rate and a different cost. So what we've seen is that the European Union has pledged somewhere between 70 billion and 90 billion worth of monies if they can steal it from the Russian frozen assets to fund two more years of war. They then the purpose of that permanence is also replace um Prime Minister Tusk in Warsaw with Prime Minister Sikorski.

That's why Sakorski is a big permanent war against Russia man. Ditto in Germany, ditto in France, ditto in England. Okay. So, what we have is a combination of interests that allow Europe and the United States to fund a death machine in the Ukraine. It'll cost Ukrainian manpower. It's catastrophic for the economy. But Russ uh Ukraine is being turned into a firing platform whose business whose trade is isn't grain anymore or eggs.

It's killing Russians. That's what it's wants to do. Okay. So in that situation, yes, uh the the problem Zalinski has to find is prevent um the Europeans, deter the Europeans and Americans from turning off the intelligence, turning off the money, turning off the arms supplies. That's what he's doing. and he's going to be much assisted when the Democrats recover the House of Representatives cuz they are Russia haters even more than the Republicans.

So, um we have a permanent war on that battlefield which will struggle a lot. We have a Russian uh offensive which will not not involve mass mobilization of men. You against a a drone warfare situation. Uh it's it's foolish and costly in blood. Putin will not do it after the election anymore than he was willing demonstrabably willing to do it before the election. What we'll have instead is capitalizing on the loss of air defenses in the Ukraine.

[snorts] And again, that's a problem for uh Zalinski to to to recover, repair. He can't defend from the against Russian air attack anymore. He can't intercept anything like the percentage he was able to to uh to achieve before. But he is able to achieve counter tactical counter victory, counteratt attack victories on the front. And that's what you can do under drone warfare conditions that are brand new. And that's [clears throat] what makes the battlefield highly fluid and makes the problem of who controls territory very difficult to define.

And that's why you can have podcasts that say Russia's won this and Russia's about to uh win Picrosoft or Reov or all or do. Yes, we have Russian military bloggers who say that and Russian they they sat with a bit more caution than John Mheimer predicts uh Russian victories. He's been doing that for several years and he's mistaken every time. But what we have is the reason you have people mistaken because the character of the battlefields very different and the politics that's the part with that veterans of the Marine Corps and the US Army don't follow the politics of this are completely different.

Imagine that Ukraine uh is to be turned into a firing platform whose only business is killing Russians. it can be done and Russia understands that too. And what Trump just did on uh Tuesday of this week was to recruit Greenlanders. Exactly that. He won't even need Greenlanders to do it. He's just turned it into a platform against Russia, part of the Golden Dome. Uh you name it, he's got it. So that's a new front. H your voice is gone. >> You're mute. >> I'm sorry.

There was a train uh behind me and I because I don't like the sound of the train to come through. Um no, he openly admits it. He openly says we want to deter Russia. We want to deter China. We need to build military and we need to build military immediately. He openly says it. Um, I guess the last question is kind of relates to what you mentioned about Putin is didn't do it before the election. He's not going to do it after election.

Russia's or you could say United Russia's party dominating win. I mean, they got 56% of the vote. >> Yeah. >> What do you make of that? I mean, now that [clears throat] is this kind of a reaffirmation of Putin's policy or should we take something else from this electoral victory? >> Well, um it's early morning time and folks need to have breakfast in in North America and I we don't have time to go through all the details.

So, um, first of all, to have attacked Russia with 2,000 drones, 400 to 500 drones over Moscow during the Saturday, Sunday of election day. Doesn't deter people from going out and voting. It encourages them. It makes them angry. What can they do to poke their finger up at the sky? Well, the answer is go vote. So, >> as a way of upsetting uh Russian protest and concern on domestic reasons, it was a stupid, stupid mistake.

But it's the mistake that haters always make. The British haters um Bomber Harris, Winston Churchill hated Germans, so they wanted to burn them alive with fire bombings of uh Dresdon and Berlin. Yeah. And we know from the US strategic bombing survey studies of bombing campaigns by the allies in Germany and Japan and hating Japanese is another species of white racism, too. Okay, we know that bombing civilian areas, firebombing, atomic bombing doesn't change people's hearts or minds.

It doesn't win uh the peace. Okay? It's an expression of hate, exterminism, genocide. When the Israelis do it in Gaza, that's what it is. It doesn't work. It boomeranged on on election day. So turnout went up, genuinely went up. It wasn't a record 59%. We've had 60 61% years in the past. >> Mhm. >> We also had 58% for for the United Russia. That was two kinds of victories. One on the proportional party ticket which by the way Sergey Lavrov headed.

Will he retire now and become an MP and take a synicure retirement? Doubt it, but it's possible. Um, the other half of the state doom, you know that pretty well, Jamal, is done on single constituencies. If you have the kind of worries, hip pocket worries, inflation worries as well as wartime concerns or the young are concerned with internet repression. Uh there are a lot of things that Russians as normal people uh don't like the government for and have expressed it.

Russians express rather democratically around the kitchen table. They don't have that expression through the communist party, the principal opposition party, the the LDPR, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, which came second after the Communists or the New People Party or the um what's the other one? I've suddenly forgot just just Russia. Um the Yabla removal is an indication of how effectively the authorities attempt to stop and neutralize any form of party opposition vote from appearing.

There's no doubt and I'm not I'm breaking no news at all. is perfectly clear in all the Russian social media, the military bloggers and many others that the authorities did it their level best to suppress opposition. Communist Party vote was down to about 13 14%. Um the ratio of of that's typical of Russian elections between United Russia and the communists should have produced about 20% for the communists. one reason for their loss, government repression.

No doubt. However, however, the Communist Party leadership, uh, Gennady Zaganov, president of the general se chairman of the general secretary, general secretary of the Communist Party for life. He's the only political leader in Russia that uh, has already been inbalmed, but still walks around Red Square. the other ones lying in red square in uh Zuganov is a net liability for the young really you can't vote for the guy but he didn't protest election fraud and election manipulation it's too late it doesn't work okay what worked to produce the communist party's 2022% last time was Alexi Nalli oddly enough that was his campaign to have smart voting to show protest votes by voting for everybody but the United Russia Party.

That substantially added younger voters in Moscow in 2021 to the Communist Party total. They uh Nali's influence is zero now. Smart voting is gone effectively and a combination of repression of candidates before the poll, the removal of the Yabla party before the poll and then some tinkering with the online voting generally benefited the ruling party and suppressed the opposition. And in the single constituencies, you see uh where you would have found protest votes against popular locals suppressed by the removal of those popular locals before the camp before the the the vote itself.

So given all of the manipulation uh which is not new in Russia, it's not even new according to President Trump in the state of Florida, is it? Uh so you you have a display that was um that confirms the president's mandate to control the state duma with a super majority can change the constitution. Okay. However, however, however, this does not mean the underlying popular concerns that brought President Putin's approval rating downwards from the the mid 80s down to the uh 70 and and high 60s.

It looks ridiculously high if you compare it with anyone in the West. But leaving aside that, it's the Russian way of expressing concerns about all sorts of things brought on to the economy, not by the war. It's remarkable when you think about it that Russia has fought a war for for all these years now since Feb 2022, suffered at least at least 250,000 dead. Multiply that by three and you're looking at wounds, significant wounds.

All our American friends know what happens in the VA, the Veterans Administration, the United States. It's one of the most miserable hospital systems in the country. [snorts] Uh the Russian side has not done that. It's trying to hold the veterans, the wounded, the psychologically hurt people. This is this is serious stuff. And yet and yet the president won a mandate, a serious mandate, but he's careful with it, very careful.

And I don't believe that the the threat of mobilization will occur because it's not necessary. [snorts] Okay? So roll all of that together, you have a mixed bag of of election results. Where else isn't there such a mixed bag of election results? It's not a it's not a an uncomplicated mandate. It's a conditional mandate which enables Putin to do and now we come back to where we started. Yeah, >> we come back to the point that you can't make a deal with the Trump administration and anyway in five more weeks Trump's going to be quacking as a lame duck.

So let's that's Lavrov's line, intelligence services line, general staff's line. Let's exploit it. And also let's take a leaf out of the Iranian book. exploit US voters vulnerability to the damage that can be inflicted on their pockets because they will then take care of Trump all by themselves. >> Uh John Helmer, Dances with Bears. John, always a great breakdown. I always appreciate these conversations and I really thank you for it.

Thank you for this. You be safe. Okay. >> Thank you. Let's both be safe and all of our listeners, too. Well, I'll try. You have a good one. Thank you for this. >> Shout out to John. I God always loved these conversations and his breakdowns are