How To Make $500/Day Trading Polymarket/Kalshi (FULL GUIDE) transcript

If you are not doing [music] this, you are just straight-up leaving money on the table because look, unless you've been sleeping under a rock, you've probably heard of prediction markets right now, probably against your own will. Like the literal president of the United States is fighting to make sure that every person in our country uses these things. >> [music] >> Meanwhile, people like Joel, a professional couch trader we just had on the channel, are making over $60,000 a month trading what words Donald Trump is going to say in his speeches.

Yet all I hear online every time I bring up prediction markets is isn't this just >> gambling website, right? >> This is gambling. Gambling? Gambling? Well, today I'm going to explain to you why the answer to that question, if you use this one strategy, is no. [music] And in order to do that, I'm going to have to break down the technique that my friend Nick used to make over $6,000 in 30 days, literally [music] just pulling money out of these prediction markets without having to place a single risky bet or even predict an outcome.

You see, Nick was taking advantage of a prediction market strategy that degenerate gamblers would never understand, something called arbitrage, [music] aka the practice of picking free money up off the ground. [music] I'll explain how it works in this video. So, in this video, I'm going to break down one, why 99% [music] of you watching this video are trading prediction markets completely wrong, just [music] gambling.

Two, why arbitrage just might be the craziest opportunity on the internet right now. And three, the best tools and techniques to make prediction [music] market arbitrage easy. I promise you guys, by the end of this video, you'll walk away ready to get started [music] today. This is the first video of its kind on YouTube, so be sure you watch all the way to the end. And if you want to join our totally free Discord community of 4,000 plus predictions markets traders pumping out wins like this on a daily basis, you can click the Discord link beneath this video.

[music] It's free. So, first things first, let's talk about the strategy that 99% of you are probably using to trade prediction markets and why it is a complete waste of time and you'll lose money. So, 99% of people come on prediction markets like Kalshi and just think that they're going to get really good at predicting stuff, get an edge, and make a bunch of money. So, they think, "Oh, yeah, I know better than the average person who's going to win the presidential election.

I'm going to go put all my money on Marco Rubio at 18%. Oh, that's a 5x." And then, you know, one news headline comes out, Marco Rubio swings back down to 0% odds, they lose all their money, they rinse and repeat until they go broke and they quit prediction markets forever. This is the experience of the average degenerate gambler, or better yet, they just go to the sports tab and use this as a way to go bet moneyline on their favorite college basketball team.

Which I look, guys, I have no problem with sports betting, but this is a video about how to actually get an edge and consistently make money in these markets. Now, in rare cases, people do get really good at predicting specific niches of markets. You can take my friend Joel, who we just had on the channel, who is making over $50,000 a month predicting what words Trump will say in his speeches right now, cuz he spends his entire life studying Donald Trump speech transcripts.

There are other famous guys like Doma, who just got interviewed on the news again making millions of dollars betting on politics and election outcomes. But again, if we're being realistic, guys, 99% of you will never have the time or the desire to go become that much of a random subject matter expert and spend 23 hours a day awake ready to place bets on news. Like it's harder than probably most jobs to do that. Which is why I want to introduce you to a new concept, something that allows you, without exaggeration, to basically [music] just pick free money up off the ground in prediction markets while taking extremely minimal risk and not even having to be an expert in anything or even predict outcomes, which might not make any sense.

I'll explain it in a second. It's the same thing that my friend Nick did to make over $6,000 in these markets this January without having to study any markets, and it's basically just a methodology to exploit these books and take advantage of their odds being wrong. It's called arbitrage. So, pay attention here, guys, because if you understand what I'm about to explain to you in the next 60 seconds, you can leave this video and go start literally picking up free money off the floor, or metaphorically, not literally.

The definition of arbitrage is simple. It's a practice of buying and selling identical assets on different markets to profit from price differences with little to no risk. So, think of it like this. If on a single market, such as will J.D. Vance win the presidential election? Kalshi has the yes odds at 60% and the no odds at 40%. And then on that same market, a Kalshi competitor like Polymarket has the yes odds at 65% and the no odds at 35%, there is free money for us to make here.

Without having to have any clue whether J.D. Vance is going to win this presidential election, it doesn't even matter. Because, and stay with me here, we can literally just buy yes on Kalshi for 60%. We can buy no on Polymarket for 35%. And remember, guys, the way that it works on these platforms is if you buy yes at 60% on Kalshi, you're buying yes shares, like a stock but not a stock, at 60 cents. If it goes to 100%, those shares will resolve to $1, you'll make 40 cents per share, or 40%, and if it goes to no, those shares go to 0 cents or 0%.

Meaning that if we buy yes shares on Kalshi and we buy no shares on Polymarket, we have now covered every single outcome. Meaning that if he wins or loses, we've bought both sides, but we've only had to pay 95 cents. [music] But whether J.D. Vance wins or loses, it's going to go to 100 cents, meaning that we make a free 5% [music] no matter what happens. Now, of course, there are some risks that I'll outline in just a second.

But the reason why this can be so profitable is, well, it's a few [music] things. One, even though the market that I showed you earlier technically is going to resolve in like years whenever the presidential election is. Often times, you can fully take profit on these price differences, that 5% within hours, because the lines converge. For example, we spotted an 11% arbitrage that you could have squeezed $1,300 out of in our arbitrage channel in the Asymmetric Discord at 6:00 p.m. the other day, okay?

And that 11% arbitrage had fully closed, meaning you could have sold for the full 11%. I'll explain how this all works technically in just a second, within hours, even though the Constructors Championship doesn't end until next December, okay? So, the dates on these arbitrage events doesn't really matter. And the only reason this is possible is because markets like Kalshi are so early on that they are inefficient enough for these arbitrage opportunities to exist.

Now, what's going to happen is time's going to go on, prediction markets are going to keep exploding, more and more money's going to come in here, and these arb opportunities will probably go away sooner rather than later, which is why I needed to make this video now. Cuz if you can consistently find these arbitrage opportunities, you can absolutely print. So, how can you be like Nick? How can you do this today? Well, let's talk about it.

So, for starters, it is technically possible to just sit here and manually arbitrage prediction markets. For example, the other day, one of our Asymmetric team members noticed that on a market for will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027, you could buy yes for 14 cents on Kalshi, you could buy no for 76 cents on Polymarket, meaning that you could spend 90 cents total for a guaranteed profit cents or a guaranteed 10% profit.

And to my earlier point, almost immediately thereafter, that 10% spread was all the way down to zero, meaning you could sell for a 10% profit on both sides very rapidly, even though again, it's a market for will it happen by 2027. But ultimately, consistently finding these things without tools is going to be really hard. What I've realized is ultimately, if you want to consistently do this stuff, if you want to make money with this, you do need the help of tools.

So, I'm just going to do a full breakdown of the best arbitrage tool on the market right now. It's the exact same one that Nick used in order to generate over $6,000 this January. But here's how this thing works, okay? So, arbs.xyz is actually an insane AI arbitrage tool. What it's doing is literally scanning every single major prediction market, Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, Probable, etc. And it's in real time finding and sorting the biggest arbitrage opportunities.

So, it's literally constantly finding any markets where the prices are different across two different prediction markets, so you can go make free money even if you know nothing about prediction markets. It doesn't matter. As you can see here, you can sort which two prediction markets you want to check for arbitrages between. Right now, I have Polymarket and Kalshi pulled up. Here at the top, you can sort by spread, profit, volume, or end date.

I like to sort by profit here at the top. The reason why sorting by profit is better than sorting by percent spread is because due to the pretty thin liquidity on prediction markets, it's not like you can just put infinite money on any arbitrage. can't put a million dollars down and make $50,000 on a 5% arbitrage. There's a lot more advanced calculations that has to go into it. That's why the profit sorting is so nice here.

But what I realized when I was interviewing Nick live on how he made the $6,000 in a month using this tool, the recording of that interview is inside the Asymmetric Discord, by the way, is that you don't even need to sit here and scan the website every day to find these arbitrage tools. The best thing to do is to just use their arbitrage notifications. Cuz anytime big arbitrage opportunities, or basically big free money opportunities, pop up on prediction markets, a lot of the time they close really fast.

And I'll show you here how a 50% arb opportunity literally closed in like an hour earlier. And it's just pinging them all on this channel. It shows the max EV or the max profit you can squeeze out of it. It shows the percentage of arbitrage. So, for example, uh literally just a few hours ago, earlier today, we got a ping for a 15% arbitrage or $66 free dollars to go pick up. Now, that's actually quite small. I could show you examples of 800, 900, $1,000-plus single arbitrages that we've gotten thrown in here. $500, $486, $408.

But I'll use this example cuz we got the Arbs notification today. As soon as that pops up, you can just click the open on Arbs button right here, or you can open it directly on these two prediction markets. But I like clicking the open on Arbs button. Then once you click on that, it literally just pulls up a calculator for you where you can input the amount that you want to wager on this arbitrage. It'll show you what your net profit will be, what the ROI percentage would be.

It will then calculate exactly how much money you need to put down on both sides of this arbitrage on different platforms including fees. So if I wanted to execute this once I had calculated my total wager amount and what the total profit would be, all that I would have to do is just click and copy and paste the total amount of shares that I want to buy on each platform, click the execute on Kalshi button. It will automatically pull up the market on Kalshi.

I just paste in the amount of contracts that I want to buy, and then I would click buy. I would go back to this page, copy the amount of shares that I need to buy on Polymarket, click the execute on Polymarket button, make sure that it is set to limit. I would paste in the amount of shares. I would double check that the buy price and the amount of shares that I am getting on each platform matches. So 69 cents and 440 on Kalshi.

Except guess what? Now because this arbitrage resolved so fast, the average price is already at 89 cents. And actually if we go look at the profit chart for this arbitrage, we can see that these lines open all the way up to a massive arbitrage here. This spike happened for literally just a split second and then closed all the way in just 4 hours. 15% arbitrage you could have gotten for free in 4 hours if you just gotten an alert for this trade.

So let's go ahead and find an arbitrage that's still open right now so I can show you all the analysis tools look before you enter one of these. Here's a 13% arbitrage that just got pinged to us about an hour ago. We can click open on Arbs. And once we do that, we're going to get a full breakdown of exactly everything that's going on with this arbitrage opportunity. There is a full risk analysis. It's analyzing the rules on Kalshi and on Polymarket for both of these to give you an overall risk rating because if the rules on both of these markets happen to differ and one resolved to yes and one resolved to no for the same market, that is the only way that you can actually get to trading arbs.

An example of that happening was like Cardi B's performance at the Super Bowl. One platform considered it that she did perform, one platform considered it that she didn't because the rules were written like a little bit different over a discrepancy of her technically being on stage but not performing. So, there's a full risk analysis of that in here. It's going to give you tons of other comprehensive details that you can dig into if you really want to get into this stuff.

There's a details page that shows exactly how the AI analysis is finding out that this is a good arbitrage opportunity. You can see here that we could buy yes on Polymarket and no on Kalshi for only 93 cents total. We could go and enter in our wager amount and it'll calculate exactly how much profit that we are going to make and then we'd be able to, like I said, literally just copy and paste numbers into Polymarket, copy and paste them into Kalshi, click two buttons, and then we just wait for the arb to hit.

Now, this is again a smaller one. This is actually still already closed uh to a much smaller profit since earlier cuz some of this stuff just hit so fast, guys. That's why you need tools like this. What's really cool is Arbs also has a chart feature, right? Now, what this is is lines of the prices for these markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi. And that area in between them, this tool calls the profit area. And that basically just means if you think earlier about how I described to you that arbitrage works, as odds for the same market get further apart, which is what's visualized by this green area, the arbitrage opportunity becomes larger.

And then every time that these lines cross is whenever the odds have fully merged and you can sell for that max profit. kind of cool if we look at this market is the lines have actually crossed before. So, you could have arbitrage this market multiple times. You could have bought at an 8% arbitrage profit if you would just bought on the 10th at 1:00 p.m., you could have sold again the next day at 8:00 a.m. for an 8% profit and you could have bought it again today at 11:00 a.m. for a 7% arbitrage profit, sold it again when they crossed and so on and you can begin to envision how you could easily squeeze out effectively risk-free profits again and again.

Now, I can't literally tell you that this is risk-free because sometimes, like I said earlier, you do run into the risk of the rule sets for the same market on Polymarket and Kalshi being different. You can get wrecked that way. You should of course never put money into something like this that you cannot afford to lose. These are brand new markets. This is proprietary stuff and everything like this is risky. Whenever I say {quote} {unquote} risk-free, what I'm alluding to is that you don't actually have to make a guess on which way this market is going to resolve.

We're just taking advantage and basically just taking money from these markets. There's even a full strategy tab that explains exactly how arbitrage works on either of these markets. It identifies the pricing gap. It calculates the spread. It determines the position size cuz that's something else that you have to understand, guys. Just because there's a 7.5% arbitrage difference between these two books does not mean that you can just put an infinite amount of money in here and make 7% on a billion dollars.

It has to do with how much actual liquidity there is in the order books on Kalshi and on Polymarket. Some of you guys watching this video are familiar with order books and liquidity. Some of you aren't. I'm not going to dive all the way in that for the purpose of this video because this tool does it for you automatically. But that's why it's so cool that you can just sort by profit amounts live on this tool. $1,600, $1,200, $700.

This is all stuff that's open right now that I can put money down on. But then, once you do that, you also have to understand how to manage your positions and when to sell them. Check it out. We literally just got pinged for another one. $200 arbitrage just opened up here. These are coming all day. Now, in order to manage your positions, you can just tab over here to the position manager. All you have to do is connect your accounts on the different prediction markets and what it's going to automatically do is just track all of your open positions.

It's going to track how much money you currently have deployed. These are some wallets that we have open right now. It's going to track how much open EV you have. It's basically just like the total amount of open profit you can capitalize on once the arbitrages that you currently have open converge or close. There's a lot of really cool tooling in here that you can use to monitor all of your positions while they are open.

So, you could have opened this arbitrage here on the same market for a 5% profit, closed it for that 5% literally hours later. You could have opened it again for another 5% the next day and then closed it again the very next day for another 5%. And actually, if you would open it here and not even close it till here, you would have squeezed out more than 5% because the lines flipped all the way in the other direction.

But, instead of sitting here and trying to monitor all this stuff, what you can actually just do is do what Nick told us he does, which is just to use the arbs.xyz sell notification feature. If you connect a Telegram account, they will just ping you whenever these arbitrages that you have open in these connected accounts have closed. So, this is an example ping that you would get if you open an arbitrage. You don't have to sit here and literally scroll and refresh all day.

You can just get notifications to your phone when it's time to sell and fully take profit on these positions. It makes it super super easy. So, what this effectively turns into is you basically just sit in a Discord channel, wait until you get a ping that you can arbitrage this much money on this market. You click open arbs.xyz, use the calculator to size out your bet. You copy and paste numbers into the Cal sheet. You copy and paste numbers into Polymarket, click buy on both, and then wait to get a notification and sell and repeat.

Or at least that's what Nick did, right? I can make no guarantees of how this would work for you. But, I just don't see a better opportunity in these markets because again, this doesn't require you to actually become an expert at anything. You're basically just cheating the books. And there's so many opportunities to do that right now with the way that the market is. So, there's a link to go sign up for arbs.xyz beneath this video that you can go click, sign up, and literally start arbitraging these markets before you go to bed tonight.

There's a full guide, 24/7 Discord support, and a full community of people arbitraging this stuff and getting ahead of the game. The reason that I know that is because guys, if you haven't figured it out by now, uh me and my team [music] built this. I've been building this behind the scenes for months, and the reason why I haven't talked about it yet is because we brought on Nick to be a one-month beta tester to see if you could actually make money with this thing.

Not only did he make money with this thing, he made 6K in 30 days, and we interviewed him live about exactly how he did it, and we recorded it. And if you're skeptical of any of this stuff, just go watch that recording in the Discord. It's linked beneath this video. But, I wanted to post this video cuz I want you guys to be the first to know and the first people access to this at OG pricing. We're offering this at OG prices just for the first [music] 50 people who sign up, and I imagine that will go very fast because I did a tiny live session inside our Discord opening up 10 spots to this tool to our initial round of testers, and they sold out in literally less than 2 minutes.

I think that we have built something absolutely insane here, and I cannot wait for you guys to go try it. As you can see, we're already getting crazy results from our community members. This is Alfonso, literally like 6 hours after buying access to this tool, posting over $300 of open EV profit. So, it's there for the taking, guys. I've built this. We're going to put it out into the world. I think we're on the forefront of something absolutely insane right now, and would love to have you guys check it out and be a part.

[music] Either way, I still love you. If you like this video, be sure you drop a like on the video and you subscribe [music] to the channel. Guys, the vast majority of you who watch these videos are not subscribed. It's one simple click beneath this video. It helps the channel grow. It helps me make more videos like this for you guys. I love you all and until next time, peace.