How Trading Like an Idiot Makes Me $10,000/Month (15 Minutes a Day) transcript

I am the dumbest, most successful trader that you will ever meet. While everyone else is trying to trade like they're performing brain surgery in a blender, I am consistently and confidently making regular trades that look like this, trades that look like this, and even trades that look like this using nothing more than one simple strategy called the sneaky pivot. [music] This is the easiest and fastest way for any trader of any skill level with any account size to start taking steps forward [music] because all you need to be able to do to master this strategy is use one time frame, one candlestick, and give up 15 minutes of your time.

And I think for a lot of you, that's pretty easy to do, right? Now, my name is Doug and I've been a professional trader now for 26 years. And one of the hardest lessons I ever had to learn was every time I tried to get smarter, cuter, or more clever with the market, every time I did that, it always made me look stupid. And I know for a lot of you that are watching, that's the exact same thing that's happening [music] to you.

You're putting in the work. You're trying as hard as you can, but your results are getting worse. And what you need right now is the exact same thing I needed then. You don't need to get smarter. You need to get simpler. And maybe even a little dumber. So, in today's video, I'm going to show you exactly how to trade this sneaky pivot strategy. But before we get into that, I want you to know something. I am not going to sit up here and waste your time and just talk to you about it and show you a bunch of hypothetical hindsight examples because talk is cheap in this industry.

I am going to show you exactly how this strategy works by trading it in a live market with real money, with real pressure, and real consequences. That way, by the time this video's over, you can make the decision for yourself if you think the sneaky pivot strategy is as simple as I say it is, or you're going to watch me lose money trying. How about we get started with today's video? So, first things first, in order for you to get the most out of today's video and for you to get the most out of the Sneaky Pivot strategy, we have to have our chart set up correctly.

Now, like I mentioned there in the introduction, the reason so many people get along with this strategy and they love it is because there aren't very many moving parts, starting with the time frame. Where other strategies have you bouncing around back and forth between multiple monitors looking at different time frames, Sneaky Pivot only needs one time frame. And the one time frame is a 15-minute. So, let's start with that and set it up on our chart.

That's pretty easy to do. For reference, I'm going to start today's video with the YM Dow futures here. Doesn't matter what's up there. Just move it over to a 15-minute chart. Just click the 15-minute time frame and that's all you have to do. Notice, no indicators, no mess, no noise. Now, once we've done that, we can move on to the very first step. And here's what it is. We need to identify something called the range high and the range low and also the swing high and swing low.

And let me show you what I'm talking about. Starting with the range high. The range high and low is going to be the previous day's high and low price of the asset you're trading. So, if you take your eyes and you scoot them over here to the left, you're going to see that this black shaded area represents the previous day's trading activity in the YM futures. So, what we're looking for here is the highest price point we see printed and we're looking for the lowest price point that we see printed.

These represent the range high and low. So, what I'm going to do is grab some sort of horizontal line, some trend line that your software has. I'm going to come over here and lay the line on top of the highest price I see. Just get as close as you can with your eyes and the lowest price I see from the previous day. And this high and low represents the range high and low. Now, the next step with this, the swing high and swing low.

In layman's terms, the swing high and swing low in this case is the next level up above the range high and the next level below the range low. Now, if you look at the chart I have here on the screen, you don't see that price on the left. So, what you need to do in this case is minimize your chart and go back to the left as far as you can until you find the next price that was higher than the range high. So, range high, we move back to the left and right there is that next swing high.

That will make our swing high. So, let's go ahead. We'll lay a line right on top of that. And we're going to do the same thing below. We're going to go back and we're going to look for the next low that we see, which is right here, okay? That should be pretty easy for everyone. Let's go ahead and put a line on that. And those upper lines and lower lines represent the swing high, swing low, range high, range low. Very simple.

Now, these might be recognizable to a lot of people watching because these are the rumors magic lines. Now, let me show you a trick here. If you happen to be using the TradingView software, you can actually come up into your indicator menu here, hit the drop-down tab and search for the rumors magic lines, and click them, and they'll put them on there for you. And better than that, it'll actually layer another one up and another one below.

But just to make this video simple, and not everyone's using the TradingView software, we're going to stick with the lines that we have to keep everything clean, but I thought I'd mention it for those that use TradingView. Now, that's all we need to do to establish the range high, the range low, the swing high, and the swing low. Now, onto the good stuff. Once we've drawn these lines, what do they mean, and how are we going to trade them?

And I'll show you. Let's say, for example, this is your swing high, this is your range high. This is your range low. And this is your swing low. First, most important, yet very easy rule. We are only, I mean only going to buy or sell the asset we're trading if and only if it is at one of those lines. So, in the beginning I told you it was simple. There was few moving parts. We have one time frame, one chart, and four lines.

You only buy and sell at those lines. Simple. Anywhere else, leave it alone. So, now the question is, which are the buy lines and which are the sell lines? And here they are. The upper two lines are the sell side lines. What these are are the upper bands of resistance of the asset you're trading. And in layman's terms, what this means is this is the strongest sell side force. And every time the asset you're trading has moved into that level, it has been met with nothing but sellers.

And until those sellers leave that asset, it will never go any higher. It will stay there. In inverse relationship, the bottom two lines are the strongest buy side force. This is where the market's muscle memory is programmed to buy. Every time the asset pulls into one of those levels, it gets bought. This is what we want to do. We want to sell at the upper two lines. We want to buy at the lower two lines. Now, here's something that happens every day where the edge of the strategy gets enhanced.

Now, some of you might know this or have experienced it, but here's exactly what happens in most cases every day that you trade. Regardless of what you trade, what normally happens is for the first 15 minutes of each day, the asset you're trading ping-pongs or kind of moves back and forth between the range high and range low, trying to test both the sell side force and the buy-side force. Now, shortly after the 15 minutes, which is important to you and I, let's say a phenomenon happens.

What will usually take place is either the range low gets broken and it immediately visits the swing low or the range high gets broken and it visits the swing high almost every single time. Now, here is what you and I are looking to do and what the sneaky pivot takes advantage of. We are looking to either sell into the range high and trade it back into the swing low or we are looking to buy at the swing low or the range low and trade it back to either the swing high or the range high.

Now, let me show you exactly the candlestick formation we are going to do and how this execution works. So, because the sneaky pivot is a very simple strategy, it uses a three candlestick framework. And the candlestick framework looks like this. We're looking for a strong, bold opening 15-minute candle. We're going to call this the opening range candle. It'll look something like this. Next is more important. The following 15-minute candle is something we call the sneaky, hence the sneaky pivot.

The sneaky candle serves two things. It lets us know the legitimacy of the first candle, like what actually happened there. More importantly, it's going to tell us what the third 15-minute candle means. This third 15-minute candle, which in most cases is going to happen at the 45-minute mark of each day, that right there, for all intents and purposes, is going to be our entry. Now, the three-step framework itself is pretty simple, but what's the most important part of this framework is not just those candles, but how they look and more importantly where they appear, hence why we started the video talking about the magic line levels.

So, let's go back to the YM chart and let me show you exactly how you're going to dial down this entry. Okay, so back to the YM chart we started with. I left the lines up and just for a quick refresher, the upper lines is the range high, the swing high, the lower lines range low, swing low. What is the rules, my friends? We only sell up here, we only buy down here. And what do we do? What do we do in all of this mess?

We just stare at the chart. We twiddle our thumbs. We maybe check our Facebook or Instagram, but we don't do anything with the instrument we are trading. So, what we're going to do is wait for that first 15-minute bar and it will tell us what level it picks. We don't have to choose being bullish or bearish. We're going to let the first 15 minutes tell us what it is we need to do. Now, this is a playback here before we get into the live trading just so you understand exactly how this works.

So, when you see it live, you're already where you need to be with it, but I'm going to play the first bar through and what you're going to see happens is it immediately plows all the way to the lower part of the range, which is the swing low, okay? So, let me ask you a question. What would you do in this situation? Someone is forcing you to push this button right here on the mouse. Are you a buyer or are you a seller?

You're obviously a buyer. But here's the thing we have to understand. We can't just randomly buy that because maybe today's the day the entire thing implodes. We're all out on the street corner eating soup cans, carrying backpacks, heading for the hills. We need what? The sneaky candle. So, maybe it's the next candle, maybe it's the following candle, but we need the sneaky candle. So, the very next candle that prints in this sequence, you're going to see is a green one.

Now at this point we have the confirmation that we need and this is what I want to show you. First and foremost is this lower swing low. Now one of the things newer traders tend to mess up with and I did too was I used to think technical analysis was literal. Like I would draw that line and say, "That's my stop. That's where I'm in. That's where I'm out." But really it's just a range. So note the first candle came, it printed all the way at the low slightly below the swing low and then the next candle is green.

So this is that sneaky candle which means the market is intending on being bought back up. But again, this might be a sucker candle. Maybe the next one just implodes, but we have that stability. Now mind you, these are 15-minute candles. So this is 30 continual minutes where the lows have been tapped over and over again. So if you were to pull up something like a 1-minute chart or a 5-minute chart, there would be a bunch of taps and wicks on that low, but it's a lot cleaner cuz it's a 15-minute.

So what we're going to do is look to buy above that candle. So the very next one pops up through here and you'll see it goes right above that. Now here's where the entry comes in which is the same for the pattern scalp, the same for the opening range reversal, the same I use in this three-step strategy is we always need one candle to go over another candle and here's what I mean by it. When the price crossed that 15-minute candle, which was 49 521, that is the entry.

The moment it pushes above the candle, that's the entry. So in this case, we would buy it. Now remember, this is a little bit late on the entry, but what we're going to do is place that stop loss right underneath the big buyer. Now, I've mentioned this so many times in my last videos. This is what I want new people to understand. This is what I want struggling traders to understand. This is what I want anybody to understand who isn't making money trading.

You're always getting stopped out because you never did these levels in the first place. That's why we started the video with the levels, right? If our stop loss is under the big buyer or above the big seller, I've said before it's like our guardian angel. It's a protection device. We're most likely not going to get stopped out because this buyer has been tested for a half an hour and it's continually bought. So, that's a pretty simple standard format, right?

Everybody agrees with that. We got the entry, right? So, now it comes the target cuz every trader struggles with these targets. Am I correct? They all struggle with I struggle with targets. You're struggling with targets. Here's how we fix it. Because the sneaky pivot is a range-bound strategy, and the reason we drew those lines in the first place is because that's where it's going back to. That's where it's going back to in most cases, and that's what we want our target price to be.

Either the top of the candle or somewhere back against the bigger seller. Let's just go back with the biggest seller here, and you'll see that even a couple of more times like some of these times it takes a while to get up there. But, here's what I want to do. Let me stop that. That's moving a little too fast. >> [snorts] >> Here's something that you have to keep in mind, and this I'm glad I actually used this example.

I didn't even know it here. But, here's what I want to show you. Note that the ending part of this will eventually come. And this is again a big struggle for traders. Patience, okay? Note that, you know, about a What is that? 45 minutes? It just kind of stayed there, and it kept dropping and popping, dropping. Look at these wicks. Look how many times that buyer was tested. Now, in most cases this is going to come off of the third or fourth bar.

But the point is sometimes it doesn't. And this is what every trader who's watching this needs to understand. The drawings from the textbook, the drawings from the candlestick chart, they don't look like that in real world environment. What I want you to focus on is trust. Trusting the lower ranged by I'm going to move this one down right here where the stop would be. As long as that thing is holding the low, your trade's still valid.

It may suck to be in it. It may suck that it hasn't rallied, but you need to stay in that, okay? That's exactly the kind of trade we are looking for is to take it from the base of either the range low to swing low back to the range high to the swing high. Now, this is a very simple strategy. All of you should have the three-stick framework. You should understand the lines. So, there's no reason for us to do anything else but start live trading.

I told you I was going to put myself on the line. Now's the time to do it. Let's trade this in a real market, and you can decide for yourself. Okay, so the first trade has been made for today. We have a long here in AAOI, and it is five Yeah, 500 shares, $170.32. Now, I left these magic lines up here, and this is with thinkorswim, so it's kind of a little bit messy in terms of view. I want to show you this in in TradingView because there's a slight change here to these magic lines.

I want to show you something that's pretty interesting here, but right now it's 500 shares, $172.32. I think most people can see this, but let me kind of move this TradingView over here real quick. This is the last bar that printed here, and I just kind of want to go through this because there is a change to these magic lines, and let me talk about it here and my attention might get moved back and forth. So, first thing is we're looking for range high, range low, swing high, swing low, right?

So, the previous day's high and low price are right in here, okay? Which makes the swing high the very next high above that, right here, the 184. And then of course the swing low isn't isn't too much further. It's right underneath of that. So, just like the rest of them, there's this huge gap in between and usually the swing high, range high, swing low and range low are pretty compressed like that. Now, if you take a look at this AAOI, it didn't quite make it there, but it was close enough for me and I'll I'll tell you why.

First of all, this is about a $15 candlestick. That's that's pretty aggressive, right? And it's very rangy. So, a lot of times they don't give you that opportunity, but I want to open this up because there is a little bit of an adjustment here you can make. This was the third candle entry was around that 170.32. So, if I lay my cursor right there, that's about 170.35. So, that was right on point with the entry just kind of cresting the sneaky candle here, right?

But note that what I want everybody to understand is this. Note the three wicks at the bottom, which was in this area. Sorry for messing up this chart. I'm going to keep my eye on this straight. area. So, like down in here, you've got those three three points where the lower buyer has been tested. So, that's I mean that's pretty good right there. There's not much you can do and you can see this wick kind of just turned around.

It looked like it was just going to pop back through the low. Let me open that up where it's nice and I it. Just right there. I mean, it looked like it was going to dive right in there to the low. Snaps back up. There's the entry. Now, this is really, really far. I mean, really far between the next time. So, there's a good chance you can still make it back to 182. You can always reduce the magic lines to the opening candle like the high and the low of the 15-minute candle.

If it's really, really aggressive like that and it's range extended where it's chewed up most of the daily range. You can always wait for that first 15-minute candle to close, mark the high and low, and start working off of there and you'll see that's kind of what it is. So, I just wanted to show it there cuz there was a few differences in the magic lines, but the the the end result is the same. You got close enough to the bottom range.

And of course, what we're trying to do is trade you back up in here to the top part of this range. That's a long way to go. That'd be a hell of a good trade, but that's what we're going to try to do. Okay? So, I will keep you updated on this one. Okay, back on the mic real quick. We got another one. We have long GGL. This is a Google ETF. Uh price is 1,000 shares 13664. And I'm going to explain this one here on TradingView because it is easier to do that.

Let me queue that up here real quick. Just give me a second. Okay. So, here's what it looks like. This is GGLL. This is a Google ETF. Um the bar's already been trading. So, because this is a replay, the bar hasn't finished. We jumped in pretty early and it kind of took off. I I think most of you at this point can can follow along with this process, right? I want to do just, you know, one more overview of of the magic lines and the trade and all that good stuff.

So, going back to the previous day's high price and low price cuz I think on both of these, they're a little different um because everything is so rangy. The bottom's pretty easy. It actually was a double bottom there on the daily chart. And again, coming up just a tad bit short. So, this would be range high, range low. And then you have to go back really, really far here. Actually, no, not too much. That'd be the swing high.

And then the swing low would be way down here. Again, another rangy instrument because this is an ETF that mirrors the stock Google. But you're seeing the same pattern. Is that the middle range is always so wide. So, just like AAOI, you you didn't quite make it down there, but you had the same same thing. Three tail wicks close to the big buyer. And you're just looking for that cross. And I want to show you these because you know, in real life terms like this, technical analysis this is not literal.

That's close enough. And it was just it's always just the same trade as AOI. Um Now, you can always, again, just use the opening 15-minute candle, but I think this is this is fine. There should be at least a uh an outside chance it makes a a push up towards the upper seller before the day's over. Uh but I mean, that's it. Straightforward, pretty simple stuff. Right? >> [snorts] >> All right. So, it's been a little while, but looking at GGLL.

What a monster. Went right back up to that open range there. Uh good trade so far. 14 on this one. Uh so, we're going to target that next area up there, 1 39.54. And if we could go back over here real quick. Where is it? There it is. AAOI. This one's working slacken lagging a little bit there. But I think if we get through that 176, we can get that upper range. I mean, look at that. Um let's hope that candle sticks. Yeah, about 18 on this one, so we got there almost 3K on these two.

Looking good. I mean, at this point, it's just it's just auto pilot. I mean, hopefully you guys can can see it here. It's just it's simple. I mean, as simple as simple can get, right? >> [sighs] >> Okay, it's been a long day. I'm tired, but I'm going to update you on these trades. And I really want to do this one because when you trade live, you get live situations. Remember, no cherry-picked charts or circumstances.

We had a little change. We had one turn out real good out of those trades, and one one kind of stuck it to us, man. It sucked a little bit. So, let's start with the good one here. AAOI Um take a look at this. Later in the day, it had moved up quite a bit. It was lagging Google GLL there for a minute. Taps the top range, and look where it ends up. Gets right up there, right at the end of the day. Now, the market's closed now, but right there towards the end of the day, it taps into that that upper seller.

Perfect. So, we got a lot more out of this one, almost almost 3K. So, that that's pretty good. But, Google Google was very, very mean to us. Let me pull this up here, GLL. Oh my my. Take a look what happened here. >> [sighs] >> Google got stuffed. I mean, everything looked really good uh making a really nice V shape. Uh but damn, it got rejected. I had to turn around and cut this as it started dropping. I mean, just kind of it felt like out of nowhere.

The first this 15-minute bar just plowed. It was so fast and it dropped so quick. I held onto it through here cuz I thought maybe it would, you know, kind of flag and revisit like it did back here. But, damn, the thing went down. I mean, all the way into the the big buy. I mean, if there was more time in the market, I would probably buy that. But, you know, it shows you they just kind of tap range to range. Really disappointing cuz I think at one time the height of this was almost 2K.

And, um as you can see, they sold it for um rublets. Let's say rublets. I mean, they gave a chunk back on this, but the ROI was uh was good, right? So, anyway, uh real stuff there. So, again, guys, I think the the process is really simple at this point. You see the trades. That's two for two. Well, the Google was kind of upsetting, but, you know, that happens from time to time when you trade, and it's just what you have to do with if you're going to participate in this.

So, anyway, I'm going to wrap up this video. It's been a long day. I hope you learned something. If you're looking for a great selection of ideas down in the description box, we send a free watch list out every week. Sent on Sunday. It's completely free. Something we offer to the community. The link is down in the description. And as always, I want to thank you for watching today's video. It's my pleasure. Take care, trade well.

Until the next video. Cheers.