CONFIRMS AGAIN the Bottom Is In, Bitcoin Price Chart 2nd Week Above 50-Week Average, Altcoins Moving transcript

Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today we'll be taking a look over here at the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market and the Bitcoin price chart now that we have two consecutive closes above the 50week moving average that not only were capable of closing above this 50week moving average but also able to continue higher above the 50we moving average for two consecutive weeks.

We've seen this in past market cycles. Of course, we did this back in 2023 where we were able to significantly break and then the weeks after continue marching higher only to build a range afterwards. 2019, of course, was a big break, another continuation, and then we went into a full-blown retrace of the entire bare market and then just continued ranging afterwards. But over there back in 2015 we of course broke from the 50we had a continuation week and then that third week gave quite a big move in here but still we remained rangebound there in that precapitulation kind of rally prior to capitulation as I've deemed it over the past several years.

That's really kind of where we got stuck back in 2015 and 2016. That range for us here in 2026 was right in here. this rally prior to capitulation coming in here. We've now entered back into that range. Two consecutive green closes and continuations happening here above the 50. So, it's all optimistic. Lots of green throughout the market. And of course, we've seen a lot of action over there in the altcoin market in various little sectors and spots.

I personally do not own any Q&A. You guys have given me a hard time over the years for calling it quaint quaint. I don't know what I call it. Uh but last week it saw a 420% increase in a matter of one, two, three, four days. So what a huge move to come out of there for quant after being rangebound in here ever since the bottom back there at the capitulation phase of June of 2022. Long range, huge move. And of course, we're seeing this type of stuff show up in here after we've gotten through really the worst of the market.

Another side note about this coin, which is funny because I don't own any of it, but you guys have asked about it a lot over the years, and I've been to multiple crypto conferences where people say, "Yeah, I own quant because of you." I'm like, "What are you talking about? I don't even own any of it." But I'm happy for you guys on that one. You know, otherwise, this market is acting exactly like what we would want to see.

We've seen all the technicals to get our way out of the absolute despair of the market. The thing of course I'm just like cautiously on alert for preparing for is like we kind of go through different phases and if you just kind of like reflect back over this last year on the different phases and how we're always trying to look forward. I'm never really trying to kind of like live in the moment of what's happening. I'm always trying to look to you know what's the next thing we can probably expect to happen in here.

Like imagine being at the top right that the thoughts are hey we're going to enter into this bare market. There's going to be some liquidation anytime we see the 5day MACD start to cross. Historically, it always means this big liquidation comes next, right? Then what did we get? We got the October 10th liquidation. Boom. Then all of the larger time frame indicators said, "Hey, look, it looks like we're going to go into a bare market." So, we have to look at it through that lens of a bare market.

Then we say, "Hey, look, we've gotten our way now down to the 100week moving average. What historically comes next after we get to the 100week moving average? Historically, we're going to end up going into the capitulation of the market." So, we spent a long time talking about this market hasn't capitulated yet. there's probably going to be this capitulation. Then eventually we get the capitulation and then we say okay that's capitulation.

Now let's look what happens to markets after this. Typically we range at the bottom. We have to do bottom building behavior. Here's the various things. Then we talk about hey you know technically we're going to see one more liquidation that happens at the market. In the market it doesn't always set a new low but here's what they can look like. Okay. Now that we've had the liquidation happen we can see the crashing structure.

What tends to happen after the crashing structure happens? What tends to happen after we've already gone oversold? What's the next thing we can look for? That's going to be shifting our way back up to the 50week moving average and then trying to see our breadth show back up like we historically do after we've already done all of the bottom behaviors and get back to the 50week moving average. We look for breadth. We get the breadth.

Great. Now we've done everything that marks the bottom and it's like, okay, so what do we look for next? Right? Well, the next thing we all look for is like, okay, are we going to go to all-time highs right now? Right? And historically, we tend to have to build a new range at some point. And so that's what the the main focus for me has been has been like, okay, look, we we're looking good. Things are looking good. We've done all the things we need to for a bottom, but now we kind of get back to this area where we tend to try to kind of like range out for a little while.

And where could that range start to build itself at? And that's where we're at, right? And like what the nice thing about it is that we just kind of keep getting these confirmations throughout the market to still signal, yeah, that bottom's behind us. I don't think Q and NT taken off like that after being rangebound for 4 and 1/2 years or four a little bit over four. Uh that's not something that happens if we haven't turned a corner in this market, right?

And so like being a content creator in this space, I know it's like forwardlooking is like the worst thing you can do as a content creator. Even though everybody wants that, like they want to know what comes next, the thing that definitely gets the most clicks, the most engagement, and the most celebration is truly focusing on what is happening today. Hey, what is happening in this exact moment rather than forwardlooking.

So talking about, you know, hey, we're probably going to end up ranging out here at some point is not the like the sexiest thing we could possibly talk about, but it's the most realistic thing to really be looking for. Frankly, I would not be surprised if we just keep climbing though and that our range boundary really all exists within here. But what we know is that we tend to always build a range after we get through the 50WE moving average, right?

We go through things like the FTX collapse. We have the big push back to the 50we. We break out and then eventually some larger range ends up getting built. You know, 2018, 2019 was kind of its own monster. And I don't think we structurally have the same setup as we did back then because I was actually making YouTube content during all of this and explaining this that this is like wave four and we try to go for like a fifth wave, 4.236 extension, which is exactly what we hit on Bitcoin's market cap at the peak of 2021, right?

Like I know it's hard to kind of reflect back that long ago and and not everybody who watches this channel was here during that time, but that this was a wave four to go hit that 4.236 extension on the market cap and why I received a lot of criticism at that time too while also calling the top of Bitcoin at that time. But what I see in the market today is not reflective of what we had happen back in here. And I don't necessarily even believe that what we see today is reflective of what we had back in 2023 either because of that large divergence that has happened between the crypto market and between macro markets where this huge separation exists between the two unlike what we had back there in 2023 where we were still woff accumulating down in here for the Russell 2000 and a lack of breadth throughout markets and that crypto was no different from that time and of course at that time Bitcoin was still stuck. uck underneath the real peak of the market fall that happened in here.

And we I'm not going to go into too much detail about it cuz we've done that many times over the years that the true peak of the market for 2021 was back in here. Elon Musk, Wall Street Bets, Laserized Diamond Hands, and the true peak of our market for crypto this time around was back here in January of 2025. But that we were still struggling to even be able to get through that floor down in there, let alone even be able to get back up into that rally prior to capitulation. that that level would be a little bit lower than where we're at right now and that we're already exceeding above that as if we kind of broke out and that we're trying to kind of build a range a little bit higher.

I think that that still to this day I think the most logical analogy to make of Bitcoin's current price action is really still the exact same modeling that we've been following for the last year and a half since February of last year in 2025 when we started creating this extreme top and then a massive bearish divergence to ultimately go into a major correction back to the low just like we did back in here or back to the previous high that all the discussions we've had in here were that we've already gone down and done the crashing structure throughout out here and that we're trying to regain steam.

Similarly to after already being through all the worst, after shaking out the crowd and reducing sentiment and that what we're really trying to do throughout in here is just kind of stair step our way up, but that we will likely get stuck in that pre-capitulation rally or rally prior to capitulation range until we can really work this thing out and then eventually be able to get our way out. And so right now it seems more like a repericing event happening in the market.

Everybody kind of waking up to being like, "Oh no, I'm off sides and a lot of capital's trying to get itself set up and poured back in at the right places throughout right now." But like I discussed kind of in heavy detail in the last video. It's that we we don't see any signs yet that this is like alt season. And I wrote about that in my last newsletter on being like, you know, when do all seasons historically show up?

And we're typically going to see them like in expansion moments happening in the market. And right now this isn't one. This is like a repricing, a recalibration of the market happening. And we could see that in here by there being no separation happening between Bitcoin and between the altcoin market in general. And you can see that here too if we just put Bitcoin right next to total 2 or the altcoin market which excludes Bitcoin to see where we are.

Here's the rally prior to capitulation. We're just kind of moving in lock step. The whole thing is kind of moving with a repricing event for the whole market. So it tells me that this is still probably the most likely thing happening in the market currently right now is that this is all of our repricing happening in the market. Then our ranging through here and then we prove that we can escape from this range and then try to go stab up there at the all-time highs and then once we can get an actual expansion, that would be where we see the decimation of the Bitcoin dominance in here.

Uh my thoughts are that the peak of the altcoin market probably comes in right there, right when we get to about 35% Bitcoin dominance. But we've just got to kind of work through all of these separate phases first before we can get there. And that's okay. Step one, look for bare market. Step two, understand we haven't seen capitulation. Step three, acknowledge that we've seen capitulation. We're trying to do bottom building formations.

Step four, acknowledge everything has already happened and now we just need the last confirmations of bullish divergences on weekly relative strength indexes and MACD's. Step five, get the breadth to open, get the 50week moving average to break. Step six, go through the wall of worry and try to determine where could those problem areas be during a wall of worry. And then after we get through all of that, step seven, expansion.

And with that is typically where we see alt season and we see the Bitcoin dominance collapse. So right now we're in the step where we're in the wall of worry acknowledging that ranges do build. But the thing that I kept harping on over the past several weeks and months is that whole conviction thing. Because once we enter into those things, all of this excitement, all of this greed, all of these happy golucky feelings that we have, which we knew would return, they start to fade once you get stuck in a range for a little while.

Pessimism returns. all that negative content returns. influencers start like hedging their calls and saying I don't know I don't know this could happen that could happen this could everybody starts kind of hedging themselves and it creates a lot of doubt a lot of doubt everywhere um there won't be any doubt here convictionwise you don't do these types of things without the bottom of the market already being behind us any type of corrections from here on out or considered opportunities but I think what will be more interesting will be to see is if you know we still have a little bit of a climb to do in here to get back up to the upper bound of that range and how much more of these altcoins can really push at this point.

Um, I do think really the whole market would cool off in that type of event. And historically, this is usually just a Bitcoin only event and people kind of start screaming at the altcoins, why aren't we moving? Why aren't we moving? Uh, and then the second that thing gets cleared, that's where all those altcoins wake up and that you see moves kind of like what you just saw with Q&T, but you see them more broad-based.

So, I do think we're still within this altcoin reprising, kind of the reccalibration of the market of the 40 to 50k calls. Eventually, we'll cool down for a little while and then it'll probably become the Bitcoin only show as it tries to go back for the all-time high. Uh, but if the all-time high can get cleared, uh, historically, at this point in time, the focus of this market is no longer Bitcoin anymore outside of the Bitcoin maxis, they will just scream about it. uh but these are the type of times where the tweets on things like you know XRP it is time you may send that's where those types of tweets get made.

I also think that will happen in conjunction with macro markets at the same time specifically with IGV and I am also like on edge because I just think you know there's there's a likelihood that this thing is still going to keep ranging throughout here and it would make sense that Bitcoin does have that style of ranging behavior throughout here in the event that we do see more ranging take place in the IGV because my best guess on timing on when we're going to see Bitcoin break out is going to be with macro markets at the exact exact same time.

If you've watched this channel for a long time, I've always held that belief and that's because the data has always supported it. And then back there in 2024 when the market started ripping and XRP, it is time you may send that it was all incorporating in macro at the exact same time. It was not a coincidence that it occurred when it happened. There was the big picture all tied together. There was no secrets upon secrets.

There was no secret secret ledgers or bank things or ISO200022 or Fed buybacks or special liquidity operations or anything like that. It it was really just this big picture. And so I'm not so certain this big picture has cleared itself up yet. Um, but what I can absolutely see on the chart of course and that we've monitored this whole time has been that we got a nice lead here on the IGV to get back up into these retracement levels and to get ourselves back into this rally prior to capitulation and that we've now been ranged out within that rally prior to capitulation in here and that it makes sense that Bitcoin also let me let me take all this off here that Bitcoin also is trying to get back within that same range and that we're working that stuff out do.

So, it's exciting to see the divergence start to close itself between the IGV and between the crypto market. And but those were things that we acknowledged way ahead of time saying this market's uh diverging. And a lot of times what happens with uh crypton natives or just investors in general is they look at those divergences and think to themselves something's wrong, something's broken. But usually what it means is we have to recalibrate and we have to get back in lock step with what typically matters.

And a lot of times what really matters in this market is macro. And so we're starting to see ourselves start to catch back up in there. But you can even see it in there that even the IGV it's really stuck within that range. And it's only natural for that precapitulation range to provide some type of problems throughout in here which is where we are right in now. So you know those are just things I have to think about when I'm looking out towards the future.

Are we past the bottom? History says yes. You don't have a single historical example to look at to imply we're not beyond the bottom. the things we look forward to is to saying, "All right, when is alt season going to start? When are we going to break into new all-time highs and what are the things that kind of stand as roadblocks in our way before we can get there?" And our current roadblocks right now is going to be that range, which is the range that macro markets are dealing with at the same time.

But when we think about those, I'm always trying to like lay the foundation and kind of like emotionally prepare people is that if there's a correction within this range, which there's typically always some type of long liquidation that happens and we get headlines, $2 billion liquidated from the crypto market in 5 seconds and it's like, okay, good. The leverage has been wiped out of the system at this point and that when we have that happen and especially when we're beyond the 50week moving average, they're historically opportunities, right?

So, it's a very exciting time of the market because yeah, prices are up, but people who were grabbing in February, people who are grabbing there in June and July and August, they're all reaping their rewards. Uh, we all enjoy seeing green candles show up on the screen, of course. And I I kind of joked about being like a wet blanket in my last video because who wants to be the downer when there's like green candles to say, "Hey, we'll probably range out.

People will probably get scared again at some point." And but the thing is like when we get to those moments I I get so repetitive and people always comment on that and I understand it and I know I'm doing it when I'm doing it and but then when those moments come when those significant moments come and it's like dude I heard about this like 30 times. It's that split-second decision where you're you're like questioning things and you have this like crazy thought run through your head and you reflect back on man this was beaten down in my head so many times that it like saves the day.

And so for me, the only thing I really care about in this market is when we can actually get into expansion, when we can get into alt season. Otherwise, it's a a hold on for dear life market. For me, it's a, you know, strengthening my conviction part of the market cycle because what we haven't seen yet, and you have to think about this, too, what we haven't seen is any type of correction yet, right? The last time we had a correction, everybody was calling for lower and so we don't know how the crowd sentiment is going to be during the next the next correction that comes up.

And you're fooling yourself to think there won't ever be one. but there will and then the crowd sentiment will swap. And so it's about kind of being prepared for that moment. So I'm not trying to be a wet blanket and be like, "Hey, we're going to correct. Watch out." It's, "Hey, whenever we do correct, be mindful that the crowd sentiment is going to be really bad." But you have to look at the really big picture of everything and say anytime these things historically happen, we're beyond the bottom.

Remember when we were looking at onchain data, trying to isolate the bottom? We were like, "Okay, Bitcoin has now hit 10.8 million coins in a loss." Look at this thing. I mean it went all the way down to 4 million in loss. Like this is what happens when the market has reversed, right? So corrections do eventually come. But when we get beyond these things on chain, when we get beyond these things with technical indicators, whenever the breadth has already opened and we're we're seeing just random firing off happening throughout the altcoin market, right?

It has signified the bottom is behind us and corrections are opportunities throughout the market. So corrections will come. We're going to get near a range here pretty soon where one could really develop. I think it's reasonable that we, you know, we could march higher before that range really kind of sets in for a longer period, but I do also think, right, bring that optimism after talking about a range eventually building.

I do think we're going to recover in this market faster than anyone has seen in the past and the four-year cycles and expecting that it's going to take, you know, still two years from this moment. I just don't think it's going to because of macro. I think it there's just there's no way to me this is going to take two years to be able to break out into an all-time high. And I know you guys love time predictions, but I I also think that a lot of people are having a really hard time wrapping their head around this market and how it's operating, right?

You got the 10-year yield sitting at the highest it's been in 20 years, right? You got oil prices skyrocketing, you know, diesel prices, right? Like people are having a very hard time wrapping their head around this market because they're trying to like incorporate in things that happened in 2013, 2017, and 2021 into this market thinking, hey, this is not how cycles are supposed to behave, right? We're supposed to see these expansions. were supposed to sue like certain things happening with the Fed and all this stuff.

And and I've kept proposing that, you know, the reason 2023 through 2025 was so wonky is because there was an absence of breadth throughout markets. And that what happens is we see a consolidation of breadth into mega caps happen when you're producing a bubble in markets. and that this is not going to be like an expansionary top, but more like a rotating top happening in the markets where capital is more so just slloshing around and that crypto is going to have its turn to go flying to the upside and it won't look like your 2013, 2017 or 2021 models.

And I certainly don't think it'll look like what we saw in 2025 where there was no breadth in these markets because typically what you see in bubbles when all the money consolidates into the largest capped assets within the asset class and then when the bubble starts reaching its peak which everybody's worried about now with that 10-year and with diesel and inflation and the Fed raising rates if it is the true peak we're typically going to see some type of rotation of capital happen and it's going to chase other things and that is why this is not the same.

And I I spent a lot of time harping on it in 2023, 2024, and 2025 that this is very symbolic of what happens in euphoric bubbles that are being printed where all the money allocates itself into the mega caps and the breadth completely collapses in markets. And a way to think about that is like Bitcoin back in 2017. And I know so so few of you have that reference point to think about, but like what we saw happen in the cryptocurrency market is that, you know, Bitcoin goes and breaks into its all-time high over in here and actually goes into an expansion.

And like a thing to think about is like with XRP, right? So it gets into an expansion and XRP goes moonshots and breaks through its all-time high, right? As the expansion is actually taking place, this is where XRP can finally clear through its all-time high and go into a bull run, right? and it goes from, you know, a half of a cent to, you know, 38 cents. But then what happens from here and for the rest of 2017, right?

This is like the first alt season. Then Bitcoin keeps going. All the capital gets sucked into Bitcoin as XRP tops over here, you know, 38. The capital gets absolutely sucked into Bitcoin and it continues here from, you know, $2,000 all the way up to, you know, $17,000. And then we enter into a rotating top and the money starts to shift over there into the altcoin market. And so it's not unusual to see these types of bubbles get printed where the capital gets siphoned into the mega caps, which is what happened in macro markets that it was only the mega caps sucking in all the capital while we couldn't get it down in here.

And so I don't know the point of this really long ramble is this video is already way too long already is to say I don't think it's going to take as long as what we've seen in past cycles. And I think everybody's having their a hard time wrapping their head around this stuff because they're looking at 10-year yields. They're looking at diesel prices. They're looking at Fed future rate hikes. They're looking at this way, that way.

I wonder why won't it look like 2013, 2017, 2021? Why did 2025 look so different? And I I just think that they haven't studied bubbles and yeah, all that stuff of the, you know, inflation and diesel prices and the Fed and 10-year yields, they are probably signaling long-term problems. But what happens is when we get to these peaks of these markets, which can lead to 20-year long bare markets, there's usually a lot of nutty behavior that happens at the top of them.

And that's been my theory all along. And so, I don't think anybody who's looking for a clean expansion of the Russell and the NASDAQ and pretty happy golucky stuff is going to get what they're looking for. Their modeling is going to get them. They're going to have to think abstractly and think about bubbles and and that's what we've been doing on this channel. So, I don't want to sit here and say we're going to go much higher. we're going to do it a lot faster because of um no it's a long-standing thesis that I've had that I don't think most people have acknowledged and I don't think it's what people recognize at the peak of the market in 2024 and 2025 is that the breadth was completely dead and the reason that happens is because it happens when bubbles are being printed and when bubbles are being printed especially that magnitude where you see the capital get all siphoned into the mega caps there tends to be a rotation that happens at the end of that and I do think we will be recipients of that and I think it'll happen much faster than 2 years from right now.

And the pace we're going at currently right now tells me that's true, too. So, we have two consecutive weeks of continuing to close higher above the 50week moving average. Corrections will eventually come. Crowd sentiment will change eventually. However, our mindsets will be this is what we always expect to happen at this phase of the market. beyond capitulation, beyond crashing final liquidations, beyond breaking through the 50week moving average with the daily breadth finally opening corrections historically are opportunities once we get to these phases and we're just not going to be blind to the idea that they will eventually come.

But I mean, in the meantime, what is there to do except sit there and kind of enjoy the green candles as they show up? For me, there's no action to take here right now except hold on for dear life. And that's just what I'm going to continue to do. So until we start seeing some like really obvious signs of a correction or something like that, that'll just kind of be the thing that we're in right now. Hey, things continue to march up.

They look good. Corrections will probably come. We're looking for signs of them. I don't personally see any obvious signs right now. So until I do, I'll point them out. Otherwise, they it just looks fine. So hopefully you're doing well in this market, and we'll just kind of keep taking the punches as they come. But otherwise, I hope that you had an absolutely wonderful weekend. Um, I've been working on the next newsletter.

It'll be published there on Wednesday. So, that's 2 days from today. Uh, in the meantime, of course, you can check out the one that has been published over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. And of course, you get access to all the past ones as well. I do audio record all of these after they're put together. The last one was talking about the altcoin leaders. Really kind of comparing the different stuff between developer activity, utility, percentage draw downs, top 20 by market cap, and blockchains that when there's token demand, it leads to value acrruel. and which tokens those are from the top 50 that do that.

There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com. Otherwise, guys, I hope that you're doing well. You should be. But all right, that's going to be it. Thank you so much for watching. If you could, please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live.

As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser, but if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back. Have a good one.