Futures Commentary \ June 09, 2026 transcript

All right, folks. Good evening. So, we're going to quick go through all these uh markets. If you didn't watch this weekend's analysis video I gave, um some of this stuff isn't going to seem so uh timely. So this dollar index is a daily chart and we had the market open trade out into a buy side and bounce southside efficiency. I'll note that for you here I'll just go right to the fib with it encouragement level. Okay, notice consequent encouragement is at 99676 and today's low came in at 679.

So, it failed to touch that consequent encroachment level. That's actually kind of bullish and we want to see tomorrow if they'll create another uh higher low, start running up towards that buy side. H we'll look at the highs again that I mentioned this weekend when I gave you the analysis commentary. It's that high that high the body stops right here. So I'm looking for a much more prominent run above that area in here.

And if we can get animated eventually up to there. I'm not terribly excited about getting there for now. just uh cleaning up that clean level at 100.58. All right, crude oil. We'll run right over into that. So, crude oil. See the business here. Mentioned that we would use this volume and balance as an inversion fair value gap. When you know it, we trade up on Monday, right up into consequent encouragement. We back off.

First target is last Friday's low. We have a continuation lower today and we sweep through that and now we're trading here. So again, this market is being highly manipulated. The administration in the US, you know, comes out and says we're we're very close to a deal um with peace and whatnot. And then the Iranians come out and say there's no discussion at all going on. So, in my opinion, it's market manipulation. Yeah, that's what it is.

Um, they get the traders thinking it's going to be hopeful and then do the rugpool and the market does what it did today. Okay, so we'll look at the uh lower time frames real quick on this one. You can see how we traded exactly to the consequent encouragement right there beautifully on Monday. Now that was before I gave you the analysis. Okay, so we went up and hit it there, started falling off and then used all these levels in here which is the new week opening gap in case you're wondering what these gradient levels are.

I'll zoom out and show you what that is anchored to. Then we trade down to last or not last but May 29th's daily low. Went through it and used as a launching price level right up into there and now we're just he and hold another gap here. Came right back into filling the gap and now we're just in no man's land. So let's take a look at the five minute chart. You can appreciate that new week opening gap. So there's the high and last week settlement price and I just graded that.

Okay, you can see how it's being utilized on here and ultimately go down to our target. That was the first target. So, we'll see if it wants to go any lower um or if they're going to talk more talk to give uh reasons for this thing to get accumulated by the good old boys club and then higher prices. You know, it is what it is. You can't do anything about and complaining about is just it's fruitless. So, let's go over to Um, E through ES first, right?

So, here's ES and right away, you know, these levels should look familiar. So we went up into this area here, sold off trade all the way down to a lower level inversion for everybody gap. That's pretty good, isn't it? So from here to here. So let's go back out to a daily chart. Bring all this stuff into discussion. Right. So, here is today. We had this big run here. And as I mentioned on the weekend analysis, I sometimes don't get my comments out on X.

I'm not sure what the problem is, but sometimes I'll post something and it's not always commentary. It's not not always a market level or something like that. Could be something funny or at least I think it's funny. Uh, I may be replying to someone and then I later find out that X didn't actually post it to my account. So, I kind of talked about that this weekend, but you can't deny what I gave you on the weekend in YouTube video.

So, I told you that when we were down here, we would likely see or actually we're here when we open up, you know, we're likely to see it trade back up here before a new short would be considered. And the market trades right up into that here on Tuesday and slams down all the way through this inversion fair gap. I told you I would looked for and then this inversion fair gap and it trades right to the top of it. So that to me is pretty pretty pretty clean.

Okay. And it did it in one day. So it's a massive daily range. And I told you that we would see that. I said it before we got into this year last year, the close of the uh 2025. And then I reminded you this weekend that we would be seeing some things that are shocking. The the level of volatility in these daily ranges are picking up. Okay. So, if you're trying to be, you know, Johnny on the spot and Mr. are overleveraged just for clout and bragging reasons.

Uh you're really really missing the opportunity that's in front of you. You could be taking down some amazing halls in terms of profits if you don't overleverage and if you don't make yourself so scared about getting stopped out. So we'll run right on over into NQ because I don't want to be too longwinded. I have things I have to take care of. By the way, my wife flies back tomorrow. So, I will be back to whatever you know our schedule accommodates.

So, let's go to NASDAQ. Here's the daily chart for NASDAQ. And you'll have to forgive me with all the extra annotations in here. Um, the weekend commentary I gave you, we we showed this obviously and I said it would likely draw back up into this before a meaningful short. Um, there is a small portion of the lower half of this wick. I actually will show you what that is when we get into the lower time frame. But, uh, this daily range here, enormous, absolutely enormous.

The high comes in at 29,848 and the low comes in at 28,227 and 3/4. So that's an that's an amazing that's 1,600 handles plus for one day in the morning session, mind you. So just in the first half of the day, New York session, 1600 handles. That's massive. Like that's crazy town. So went all the way up to this level here and all the way down here and always got to the low of the fairway gap here with the volume of balance.

Okay. So with this, let's drop down into a one minute chart. This new day opening gap that looks suspect. So, we have the market creating a really really nice price run. And this morning before I had to take care of some things, I I'm on uh the duties that my wife usually does when she's around the house. So, since she's not here, um she only made enough dog food for the puppies that I have, the two boxers. They're not puppies, but I call them puppies.

Um they ate up all their food. So naturally, I'm not used to having to do that as frequently as my wife does. And I had to go through the process of going to the store, getting fresh meat for them, and do the whole thing. I know you're you're getting bored by this, and you don't care about it, but I had to do all the things that my wife normally would be doing, but because she's away, I have to take care of those types of things.

So, I had a little bit of time this morning. Um, if you look at what we have over here, I'm going to scroll back over here and you'll see some business. I know, I know there's a faster way to do this. Let me show you how to get to the right date and time. I know it's this little calendar thing down here. I just like putting you through all this. It allows me to find the people that's going to complain so that way I can mute you and remove you from the channel so that way I don't ever see any comment from you ever again.

So all of this range in here, there's a small little gap. I liked that. And if we look at an hourly chart, if I can pull up the hour, you see this right there that buys on bounce efficiency. See it now. Kil low. It's got a volume bounce. Okay, look at the close. Okay, watch. Close 905. Even next candle, the open.5. See it? 905.5. So the open on this candle is higher than this close. So there's a volume of bounce. That's what's being annotated there.

Trades down to consequent grow from there and it rallies up. Now, why am I picking that? Because if you go through, we slice through it here. We treat it as what? Inversion fair gap. So, I want to see it stay bearish. So, that's the reason why I have it highlighted just to show you, but it's actually an inversion fair gap. And you can see it's touching right here, the lower quadrant of it. That's what's being graded there.

So, when we go into the lower one minute time frame, you don't see it, but it's why I'm activating my interest in being short. Okay. lower quadrant hourly positive balance sell sign efficiency turn inversion fair gap and then we have a small little gap here on the one minute time frame okay so I watched for it to run up if into that up into that rather tongue twister and then it drops down so as soon as it drops down I'm interested in using this volume bounce and this candlestick's high so that's a buy sign of bounce sell sign and efficiency and then I want to see it act as an inversion fair value gap.

It trades open here, trades above it, fails to leave a body up area and closes down below it. That validates this as an inversion fair value gap. Anybody else that tells you that it's an inversion fair value gap without having done this, you're actually guessing. And if you're not good at forecasting price, you may see a fair value gap that doesn't actually act as an inversion fair value gap. So, I'm teaching you how to kind of like remove all of the ambiguity and just say, "Okay, I want to know when a fair bay gap becomes an inversion fair gap." You have to have context why I should go there.

And I was watching a live streamers today and they were all buzzing about how oh my goodness is so bullish. All the indices they were saying, oh, it's so amazing. Look at this. And whenever they get real emotional, when they start, you know, using lots of adjectives and describing what they feel by looking at the price going up like that, that to me, I know I'm pretty much got a lock lead pipe sense trade. Okay. And it went to my level and then it broke down like this and then we got a close below there.

Okay. This candle we open, I'm sorry. There you go. We open trade up and I was trying to nail it when it was in the low here, but it was pretty quick about dropping down into it. So, you'll see my fill here. M fact back just just do it. The fill is just see it's just one like one tick below which is fine I guess for government work, right? I mean, if you were getting that as a short, are you going to complain with zero draw down?

Come on. Well, not zero, but it's real close to it's a couple bucks about a Happy Meal. happy meals worth of uh draw down. I don't eat McDonald's. I don't call that food and you shouldn't eat it either. If you're feeding to your family, you should be reprimanded sternly. So, it sells off. I got the high candle here over this uh retrace back up into the inversion fair value gap. And then the next candle we open, tiny little run into it again, and then quickly sells off.

And then we have the meltdown towards that fair value gap that I told you is an inversion fair gap. I want to see it draw down into um it draws down into it. Yes. Um but then it creates this buy side and bounce also on efficiency. I expect it to go lower. So I want to see it trade back to essentially the the consequent corion of the regular trading hours opening range gap. I had somewhere to be today. had to pick up some things for the house and I couldn't stay with it long enough.

So, admittedly, I'm a little disappointed that I didn't just miss the appointments. I've done in the past, right? Um because this was a really I mean it was a really good day, but uh I recorded it. I showed it on X and I put a really cool song I like listened to by Phil Collins. Hopefully X doesn't, you know, get a case at the rear end and because I'm not monetized over there, but surely somebody will, you know, be upset because I use Mr.

Collins music and I'm not getting paid to do it. So, uh, he's getting all the credit. But, um, I recorded the video from beginning to end showing you the execution, the trade management, where the stop originated from, when I moved it, and then I showed you it was the same account because we did something earlier um, on Monday. And then uh it's the same it's the same account. So it's just to let you you children know that it's not Mr.

Reset around here. I don't trade prop. Twisted twisted Michael. So anyway, the the B sellside deficiency. We see it trade down into that. Use that as first presentation or first utilization rather and it rallies up into a level and then we get the drop down right there. That candle validates it. Next candle entry. Entry. Then it draws down into this bit of business here where we have this should act as an inversion fair value gap.

It's validated right there. See how the closes below it. So now this is going to become an inversion fair value gap. We have now this sell sign bounce by sign efficiency which is bearish. We want to see price utilize that. So now we have two nested fair value gaps. Okay. when you have that and it's part of a breaker. Okay, that is a variant of a reaper. Okay, real real nice. This is just basically the opposite of what I did the other day.

I was using the same premise nested first utilization and then the other fair value gap will oppose that. So you're you're getting both sides of the equation here buy side balance sell side efficiency when we're bearish it should treat it as inversion for pay gap and this first utilization is sell side and bounce by side efficiency so when price goes back up to it should be bearish now because of the volatility I'm allowing for a little bit of discrepancy okay coloring outside the lines okay it's reasonable to allow for it because I told you the volatility was going to be off the chart And I made a a concession that while I was in the trade, I annotated, you'll watch it in the recording if you go on X and see it.

I said that, you know, with all this in here, it could come up here and take that short-term high and then wilt and go lower. That's kind of what I was looking at. You can see here might sweep this minor buy side, then drop more. Okay, so I was I was bearish in here. I was allowing for the run up here. My stop was nowhere near that. You can see it in the in the execution and the management. And then we made one more time trading below it here with that close below the inversion fair value gap.

So now again we have a second qualification and validation for this inversion fair value gap. Do we get confirmation? Yes, we get a wick up to and a little bit through the midpoint which is here. Okay, but then trades up the consequent corion of the fair value gap there. So, two things are occurring, but only with a wick. It's going up to what would be permissible. But where does the body close? It closes inside the lower half of the inversion fair value gap and outside of this bearish fair value gap.

There's a big big piece of information right there. The next candle should give you immediate feedback that you're on side. Would you say that is the case here if you're short up there? Yes. And then it goes lower. You saw me open up the objectives a little bit further. And here is registrating hours opening range gap consequent encroachment thereabouts and my fill is there. So I fancied it a little bit, you know, to get a little bit more juice out of it and I had to walk away.

So I watched it on my phone how it just kept going lower today. It was just something, you know, really amusing to watch. But it went all the way down into our other inversion back up I gave you this weekend that it would like to draw down into. And then it fails to touch the low. And now here's where we're at now. Meandering around in no man's land between two inversion fear bay gaps there and there. So don't touch it.

Okay. Um, I'm done for this week because my wife is coming back and she's already making plans for tomorrow. So, I don't know what I'll be able to do with you all on Thursday and Friday. So, let's just assume that whatever I posted will probably be educational in nature, not so much like a review or analysis. I gave you enough this weekend and pretty much it was, you know, a blockbuster of a of a Monday and Tuesday. So, big big volatility.

I I'm assuming that we'll probably see more of the same, you know, through the summer. So, don't go out there and get reckless with your accounts. Don't don't overleverage. The point is is you want to try to stay in the game and pack small and play big. Okay? It's a it's a magician's expression. Okay? Uh meaning that a magician would take a few few effects that could pack small, but he can play it out big to the crowd.

And usually the reception is really well. How would you do that with trading? Keep your risks small and be content with the long holds because you're not risking that much. So let them stay on longer. Exercise the patience side of things because you're not going to lose very much if it turns on you. But you can make a whole lot more than you thought you could if you let these trades run. And the way you do that right now is because the volatility is so high, shorten the the depth of risk.

Because if you're if you're placing too much emphasis on making maximum amount of money, you're you're basically ignoring the maximum risk that you're assuming at the same time when volatility is, you know, no pun intended, off the charts. So I I I know you're not going to listen, most of you. You're going to do whatever you're going to do. But I I seen a couple people today post saying and yesterday you with regret saying, "I wish I would have did this.

I wish I would have that." And some of them actually blaming me like I put them in trades. See you later. That's that's instant block. But you're you're in an environment right now, and I warned you this was coming, that if you're not careful, you can hurt yourself. And it may take a long time, if ever, for you to save up enough money to get back into the marketplace. So, because we're met with unprecedented volatility right now, there's never been a time like this in history, ever.

It's never been like this before. Okay? It's never been like this before and it's going to get even bigger. So why would you want to remove yourself from the game before the really exciting portions of price runs start happening? This is just the beginning, okay? And I think that if you listen to me, listen to the old man, he's got good advice here, you'll be able to stay in the game longer. you'll be able to weather, you know, being wrong and it won't hurt you that bad.

It won't hurt you psychologically, emotionally, and you'll be able to find these big faraded out runs in price action where it just goes way faster and farther than you thought it would do just for one session. Did you ever did you ever imagine that you would see what you saw on last Friday in one day? Thousands of handles. And then we have today over 1,600 handles. Folks, that's a lot. Like when I first started trading, that was unfathomable.

That was unfathomable. And we're looking at thousands of these inside of a couple hours. And it's going to get bigger than this. So, dial back your risk, dial back your your participation, and really try to be more selective with when you're going to engage price action, and demand a lot more from your setups. And when I'll get back to you again tomorrow, if I can, no promises, but if I uh if I don't, I'll try my best to, you know, touch base with you on Thursday, Lord willing.

Until then, wish you good luck and go trading.