I didn't see this coming... transcript

Well, well, well. How the tides have changed. Friday, I was wallowing, disappointed, down $73,000 on the day. Today, I'm up 84,000. Water under the bridge, erased all of Friday's loss. Now back in the green. And this is probably one of the worst things that can happen when you make back all of the loss when it's a big loss in one day. you sort of set the mental expectation that you can do that and in the future when I have another big red day, let's say it's 100 grand or 150 grand, I'll have that same thought of, well, I'm not going to try to make it back all in one day.

But I have before, so maybe optimistically. And you know, look, in the right market, you can get completely smoked as I did on Friday. The next day you come back, you have a huge green day and it's, you know, all's well, it ends well. However, in a cooler market, those big red days are not just your emotions getting the best of you, as they did for me on Friday. It's the symptom that the underlying market is no longer working for the strategy that you're trading or not working as well.

So, you hit it hard the next day, it's another red day in a row, three red days in a row, six red days in a row. It'll keep going that way until you take your foot off the gas and recognize that the market for my strategy is not the same as it was. This happened with a crypto treasury uh catalyst that we had last summer, right? So last summer, we had all of these stocks, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin was at all-time highs.

We had all these stocks, US publicly traded companies that were buying shares of Bitcoin so that investors could buy using leverage that company as kind of a a conduit, a vehicle for buying cryptocurrency. A lot of cryptocurrency exchanges you can't buy using leverage. Some you can, but a lot of them you can't. And a lot of people don't feel confident funding accounts with these sort of obscure crypto brokers. So, if you could buy cryptocurrency using a US brokerage account, then wouldn't that be even better?

And so, that's what a lot of people ended up doing last summer. And so anytime one of these stocks put out the headline that they were, you know, buying a hundred million or $500 million worth of cryptocurrency, suddenly the stock started to squeeze because that vehic that company was becoming a vehicle as a of of a easier way to invest in that specific cryptocurrency. And sometimes it was a obscure altcoin, you know, buying $100 million of Dogecoin or whatever it is.

But now if you wanted to buy that, that was a stock that you would you would buy. So what happened was towards the end of the summer when cryptocurrency and Bitcoin rolled over, what happened to that catalyst? That catalyst stopped working. People didn't want to buy Dogecoin when the price was falling. They didn't care about it. And so all of a sudden, a catalyst that was predictably giving us big moves stopped working.

And if you kept going allin every time that headline came out, you went from being a winning trader all summer to a losing trader. The change wasn't anything you did. It was the underlying market that shifted on Friday. The reason I was down $73,000 was not because the underlying market shifted, but because I became emotionally compromised. It was a bit of a choppy morning. Some days are like that. No big deal. And then I got really stubborn on one trade and got completely smoked.

I mismanaged my risk. Rather than taking like $5,000 of risk on each trade I took, I was like $5,000 of risk, $5,000 of risk, $50,000 of risk. And that just happened to be the one I lost on. Right? So that was a mistake. Me that was an internal mistake. I was able to make an internal adjustment over the weekend. So when I came in this morning, I said first and foremost, my job is to build my cushion. Once I have a cushion, then I can size up a little bit within reason.

I got my cushion very quickly. And within a few trades, I was up 25,000, 30,000, and 40,000 on the day. Holy smokes. So just like that, now I'm getting the feedback that the market is really hot today. And sitting at 44,000 in the green, I'm now feeling like, all right, I'm really I've got a big cushion on the day. I'm feeling good. Let's keep going. Then I'm up $62,000 on the day. 65,000. I gave back about four grand.

Now I'm at 61. All right, maybe that's the time to walk away. We get another stock that pops up and squeezes up 986%. I made another 22,000 on that. And just like that, I'm in the green. $84,5549 as you can see right here. You know, my biggest position of the day in terms of shares was on SCT. Seckt at least I think that was it. Um yeah, two four so five. I mean, this was a big position, but it was a cheaper stock. You know, it was a lower price stock.

Um it and at that point I had such a big cushion on the day I was really in the driver's seat. So, we've got some stuff to break down. We've got Seckt, we've got Jwell. Um, we'll talk about a few of the others. So, here's how the day unfolded. Woke up this morning around 6:30 in the morning. Pulled up my scanners on my phone, Day Trade Dash, as I always do. And what am I looking at? The top gainers scanner. I was expecting Zjy L to be on the scan because it was on our watch list on uh Sunday night from this move that we had on Friday.

So Friday it squeezes up 100% after hours. Predictably at 4 in the morning it squeezes to six pretty much exactly like I thought it would. Dips down, pops up, and then starts to sell off. No trades on that at all today. You could see this rejection candle right around this area here that I don't really like so much. That was at about 450 pops and drops. So anyways, no trades on Zjy L, but it was one of our leading gainers coming into the uh 7:30 or 7 a.m. uh kind of beginning for pre-market for most retail traders.

Then we had STKH. STKH I looked at the chart first. I saw that at 645 it was our leading gainer up about 100%. I then pull up the chart. I looked at it and I was like, "Ooh, this looks pretty interesting for a possible squeeze right here through six." Then what do I do? I check the daily chart. I'm doing all this on my phone. So, I'm laying in bed just checking, looking at things. So, I see on my phone, it had popped up like two weeks ago.

Topping tail sold off. Lots of room to the 200. So, I'm like, "Okay, interesting. What's the next step? Let's check the catalyst." So, then I switch over to the stock quote window on my phone and I see it's an Israeli company. And I'm like, stakeholder foods, Israeli company. Well, just last week we had MB, Master Beef Group, from Hong Kong. So, I'm like, you know, steak, beef, I mean, maybe this is a theme. I don't know.

Uh, but I think to myself, Israeli, I don't think that's going to work super well. Um, I just don't think that that's on theme. And so, I said, you know what? I think I don't think it's going to work, so I'm just going to wait. So, 7 a.m., no trades on it. It ended up squeezing at the open from 4 all the way up to 7, but then coming back down. It's Israeli, so it's not on the current theme, which has been Chinese stocks.

Had no news, but neither have most of the Chinese stocks have been making moves either, like Zjy L. So, in any case, um, doesn't matter. Zjy L, Zjy L, there it is. So, uh, SKT, sorry, STKH, that one was off the list. Um, let's see. And then we had, um, Zj was off the list. And then we had JW Lel, Jwell. Uh so Jwell Chinese company okay no news okay daily chart it's above the 200 no recent big candles so there was nothing there really concerning me so I thought okay that looks good we had popped up here at let's see what time was this about 440 from $2 to five and it comes all the way back down then it rallies back up here as they often do and then it comes back down again and so right in this area here coming into 7 a.m.

I'm wondering, you know, is this thing, what's it going to do? And so, as we come into 7 a.m., we'll just go on the 10-second chart here so we can be really zoomed in on this price action. Um, coming into 7 a.m., it first drops down right here. Drops down, then it rips back up right here. And as it squeezes back up, I'm looking at that and I'm thinking, okay, I I think I can break the ice on this. So, where's my first trade?

My first trade on this was a quick scalp in at $4 right here and out at $415420. So just jumped in, jumped out, made $1,900 on the first trade. Okay, that's that's a nice breaker. That's exactly what I needed. Jumping in, jumping out. Boom. I'm good. Now, the levels I was watching was the break through this level here of 439 and then I was thinking pretty much back to the high of day of about 524. Now, I did check the daily chart.

And when I switch over to the let's see, we'll do this on this time frame so we can overlay the lines correctly. So, we're going to switch to the daily chart here. One day, we're going to zoom out. So, and we got to zoom in a little bit, actually. So, get zoomed in on this. And so, backing up, I thought, all right, where do we have resistance? And I noticed that there was a little high right around here around 550, 560.

And then I looked over to this level over here and I said we've got another little oops sorry another little window uh right around here 688 and then we've got room up to $912. So those were kind of the nearby areas I was looking at. Um and then we had this high right here and then you start to get more room you know back up towards that area. So these were the levels that I was sort of looking at. All right. So then I I draw them out and then I switch back to um the one minute time frame or the 10-second or whichever I was looking at.

Uh and then I can see those levels right on my chart. Okay. So now we're going to go back over here. So as it pops up um right here initially um we got this first trade right there looking for 439. Now we double top, we dip down, and I wasn't sure it was going to work, but right here, it's consolidating sideways and creating a bull flag. Now, the bull flag is more noticeable on the one minute time frame. So, if I switch to this to the one minute right there, we'll go back to full screen.

This ended up being our first one minute candle to make a new high right down here. And so, I added back right down there. And as it broke through 440, I added for the breakthrough five. We ended up squeezing all the way to 524, 560 up to a high of $6.20 and I'm adding into the squeeze. As I'm adding, my cost basis is also moving higher. So, it does carry risk to add to the position, but I'm adding. And then I said, "All right, I'm going to hold this." And then once I see an exit indicator, I'm pulling the rip cord.

I'm jumping out. And that's exactly what I did. And so I got this nice move right here from 440 roughly up to 620 nearly $2 a share. Beautiful. And so just like that, that move put me up now $44,000 on the day. It dips down here. It comes back up. I get back in right here looking for the squeeze back through six. Ended up jumping in and jumping out of it for another 20 grand. That put me up. Well, it was about 65,000 on the day.

And then right here, I gave back a little off the top as it flushed back down. All right, so it pulled back and I thought, well, clearly we've got some resistance up at this level. Now, that resistance wasn't based on a daily level. There was no resistance from 560 to 688, but clearly it was struggling in that area. Then it goes sideways and then starts to roll over. So, I thought, all right, well, these trades were all at about 7, you know, between 7 7 a.m. and 7:39, 7:40.

And so I'm sitting in the green $61,000 and then SCT pops up on the scan socket mobile and I'm thinking, nah, I don't think so. It's too cheap. It's not going to work. Blah blah blah blah. Yeah, there was a headline said um mobility solutions for Applebased frontline operations. Wasn't really sure it was going to work, but it starts it's squeezing. It's hitting the scanner. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. So scanner is making a lot of noise.

I see it. And I said, you know, look, usually these things pop up to a dollar a share and then that's it. I don't think it's going to work. However, if it can hold over $1, then I'm interested. So, it's got to hold over a dollar. So, it squeezes up right here. It goes over a dollar and I got my order ready right here to buy 10,000 shares. I've got it ready at a $1.15. I've got my order ready, ready to go, ready to go.

And then it popped here to A130 in a flash. And I was like, now see, I don't know if I want to get in at a$130. I like it a$1.15, but I don't know about a$130. I'm going to wait a second. And then all of a sudden, it shows a$140, dollar50, $170,$180. And I was like, well, I can't chase it up here. $2, 220, 240, 260, 280, $3, all the way up to a high here on the top of this candle wick of $3.95. It went up 986%. Wow. So what I suspect happened there is that during this area, which was, you know, tens of millions of shares of volume already, someone was adding heavy to the short side, adding, adding, adding, adding, adding, thinking this thing would roll over.

Look, I didn't really know the news. I don't know the company. So this catalyst, I don't know how good it is. Maybe someone thought this is not really that big of a deal. This is a fluffy headline. It's not going to hold up at all. It's not even a Chinese stock, so no, it's not going to work. And what I suspect happened is that um they all of a sudden got themselves in a jam. Whereas this thing broke over a$120, they were auto liquidated.

So who knows? For all I know, maybe they didn't even mean to short as many shares as they took. I I really couldn't say what happened exactly, but what we can see from the chart is that the stock went straight up. And usually that happens when a short is covering at market. So, boom, boom, boom, boom. Now, it's not a market order, but it's a marketable order. So, they're covering, it's squeezing up. It dips down to a$150.

And I thought, well, that's going to be a giant toppingtail candle. It's probably not going to work. But then here it starts to squeeze back up. It curls back up to $1.73. So, then I said, well, look, previously we were at a$110. So, now we're at a$1.70. And I jumped in right here for the break of a$1.75. We squeeze up to A180.$185. $2. Get a high of 211. Boom. Pulls back. Goes higher up to 220. Up to 250. Up to a high here of 264.

Then it drops hard back down to a$180. I'm all out. Consolidating here. And I'm watching to get back in for the breakthrough 250. It's a little heavy. It pops up right here. It kind of dips down and I'm watching here. I've got my hand. Order is at 285. I'm looking for the break through three. If it breaks three, I said if it breaks three, 325, 350, those are places I'm interested in possibly adding for a retest of our high a day for a full wick reclaim.

But it flushed and then it didn't end up happening. And so I didn't get back in. So ended up with a total of $22,000 ont, $61,000 on Jwell, and $84,000 on the day. Friday's losses gone. Now, on the one hand, you could say if you want to be critical, I'm still behind the ball because Friday shouldn't have been a red day. Friday should have been a five or $10,000 green day. And you know, today the daily goal 15 20 grand a day.

Uh well, today made up for Friday to get Friday back to zero. But if I should have made 10,000 or 20,000 on Friday and 20,000 today, I'm still tracking behind where I should be for this point in the month. That's getting pretty picky because the fact is you can set goals for yourself, but you'll not be green every single day. And every day that you fall a little short of the goal, are you going to start like, you know, adding that amount that you were falling short that you in the future have to make up someday?

No. That's really it's that's getting way too picky about this. Hey, big picture. You're walking away with some profit. That's good. And that's even how I looked at last week, you know? Yeah. I was bummed that I lost $73,000 on Friday. I wasn't happy about it, you know. But on the other hand, I said, "Look, I mean, big picture, you finished the week up, as it turned out, $28,000." So, I'd say that's a pretty good week.

I mean, it's not 100 grand, but it's not red. You know, it certainly could have been worse. So, you know, don't get too bent out of shape. And losses are going to happen. you know, you you're that's just an unavoidable reality of trading is that you will have losses. So, you know, a big loss here and then, you know, bounce right back with a big green day here. All right. Well, you know, like I said at the beginning, making it all back in one day um is not great from an emotional perspective because it then gives you the belief that you can do that again in the future and it really only happens in certain markets.

But we are in that type of market that's highly volatile and we are seeing stocks making big moves and so you know big winners they can happen and big losers can happen as well. Fortunately the biggest the biggest problem that could have happened is if let's say I only had 100 grand in my account. Now that's still a big account but let's just say I had 100 grand in my account on Friday and I lost $73,000. So now my account's got 28 grand.

Well these stocks are likely not marginable. So, I can't use any of my buying power, which means I can now only grow my account at the rate of $28,000 trades. So, now I'm 73% less money in every trade. And then it will almost I mean, it's it's certainly in that scenario going to take longer to build back up, right? Grew to 100 grand, dropping all down in one day. You're not going to make back because there's no way. So, now it's slow and steady.

So for me, the reality was I started this year with $96,000 in my trading account down here. I grew the account, you know, through some losses, 30, 40,000, whatever, up to what is now uh just under $2 million. So from $2 million sitting in my account on Friday, losing 73,000 minus 73K, that didn't hurt my ability to take any trades. And so, you know, this morning I was going to go slow and I did until I built a cushion and then I was able to be back to full size.

And full size, I'm not using $2 million of buying power. Really, I could take out Gosh, I mean, I could take out a lot of money. So, 50,000 shares of a $2 stock. That's only $100,000. You could argue that I should take out the full mill to one and a half million, leave myself maybe with 500,000 and then put the million and a half into something that'll earn, you know, 7% five six 7% interest and that's an extra 90 grand during those, you know, that during the whole year if I have it parked somewhere else.

So, it's costing me $90,000 a year not to do that. Is it worth it? And I would argue that it is because I needed the buying power for SpaceX. That one trade alone was like 50 grand. So one trade covered half of the year of having that extra buying power in my account. And you know there are no doubt I'm sure there have been other examples where you know I took a big trade and I ended up needing not all of the buying power but a decent amount of it.

And so and there may be more between now and the end of the year. So, I'm leaving a little extra in my account to give myself that wiggle room. And then the second benefit of that is if I do have a red day, I am not um you know, now kind of locked into trying to grow my account with less money. But that's what happens to a lot of beginner traders is if you lose half your account now, your buying power is cut in half and so it is going to take you a lot longer to rebuild.

And that's one of the reasons it's so important to have max losses set on your account and to have the discipline to follow them. And on Friday, I traded past my max loss, and there's no good excuse for it. I was emotionally compromised. I was frustrated. I was disappointed. And I took it out in my trading. So, you know, at this point, uh, I'm grateful for today. And, you know, I I have an opportunity now that this cleared the slate from Friday and so I can spend this week focusing on just continuing to grow the account. or or what I could also do arguably uh so I had dec on Friday I had talked about how I didn't know if I should focus on just trading the big account or just the small account this week I I thought maybe I should just focus on um trading in the small account and just put the big account on the side and something I mentioned in my small account recap is that you know I felt like that's like falling off a horse and then putting the horse in the barn and being like I'm not going to talk to you for a couple weeks.

I I don't like doing that. I don't like leaving things kind of unsettled in that regard. So I I said, "No, I think it is better actually that I put the small account on the shelf. The small account's in great shape. So we're leaving on a high note and just focus on the big account. Just even small green days just it's like getting back on the horse, getting comfortable again, and just breaking the ice." And so that's what I did.

Uh, and then it wasn't until SCT that I finally decided, well, actually now I'm green in both accounts or I'm green so much in the big account. I'm going to go ahead and trade in the small account as well. So, I got one trade in the small account, but Jwell could have easily traded it in the small account, but I just didn't want to divide my focus on a day that really mattered to kind of get back into a good place. So, anyways, that's kind of how I've approached it. and uh I'm happy with where I sit today and I'll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning at 7:00 a.m. looking for, you know, that one stock that's going to be the obvious leading gainer.

It was a little tricky this morning. We had STKH, we had Jwell, we had um Zjy L or whatever it was from Friday. So, we had a little dispersed attention, but one of them the float was too high. That was Zjy L from Friday. Um it was already pulling back a little bit. STKH was Israeli, so I said, I don't think that's going to work. And that left us with Jwell being the most obvious. Um, and so, you know, ended up getting some good trades on it.

So, with that, um, look, I'll put a link for the twoe trial. You guys can check it out. It's in the description, pinned at the top of the comments as well. And I'll remind you as always that trading is risky. My results aren't typical, and there's no guarantee you'll find success whether you trade with me or you learn on your own. So, your best bet is to manage your risk by practicing in a simulator before putting real money on the line.

With that, I'll see you guys bright and early streaming tomorrow at 700 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.