SpaceX’s Lead is Becoming UNTOUCHABLE transcript

What Elon Musk and the SpaceX team has built is nothing short of brilliant [music] and likely not something others can copy even China. We'll cover what makes the rocket special, the engines that get simpler every generation, the scale of launches even China can't answer and now the energy to dominate AI compute and yet his enemies are attacking harder. Today we'll cover both. First, Falcon 9. Once it lifts off the whole mission flies itself, ascent, separation, orbit and landing on a ship far or offshore.

Elon says over 600 autonomous landings so far and none of it uses generative AI. Second, the Raptor engine photo. Shopify CEO calls today's Picasso. Elon listed exactly what got deleted version by version and why deleting parts is much harder than it sounds. Third is scale. One Starship test flight could carry about half of what China has put in orbit all year. And if Elon's 2030 launch rate happens, Starship would fly more mass every 5 days than humanity has launched in all of its history.

Fourth, power. SpaceX just bought turbine maker APR Energy. Arc says it pulls the AI compute buildout forward 18 months from 2 gigawatts to closer to 10 by the end of next year. And finally, Bernie Sanders went after Elon's wealth. His answer matters to every Tesla shareholder. He says, "I have stock, not cash and as my companies do useful things, all shareholders benefit including retirement funds." We'll talk about that today.

We got Larry Goldberg joining us. He's a serial entrepreneur. He's been an active venture capital investor for the last decade. I often call him an astronaut in his previous life, but he thinks he might still become an astronaut today, right Larry? >> [laughter] >> Yeah. >> That may be a little challenging at the age of 80, but I'll give it a go. I'll give it a go. >> I know you would. >> John Glenn did it. >> All right, Larry.

Yeah, he just did it recently with any Virgin Atlantic. Don't get too excited. I'm going to show you photo. Don't get too excited. Boom. I know this is your life. You love this, don't you? >> You know, I have to say, listening to Bernie Sanders talking about Elon's wealth staggers me. I mean, this is the man that has changed the world like no other person behind before him. In In just if we just take the very narrow area of rocketry.

Before Elon if we launched five you know uh satellites a year, was a lot. >> Mhm. >> Post Elon thousands a year is not a lot for him. And it took one man. It took one organization. It took, you know, one decisive view the world to make that happen. Now he you know, he he he employs thousands, tens of thousands of people to make it happen. But without that without that intent, without that focus, without that drive, it could never have happened.

And when we think about the number of people that tried to stop him, we think about the number of people like Bernie Sanders who tried to stop him who did everything in their might to stop him, and yet he succeeded against an engineering challenge of enormous proportion. Uh so so great was the engineering challenge that he was told by very very experienced rocket pioneers and engineers that it couldn't be done. It took, you know employing thousands of the brightest people, it took enormous amounts of grit, and it took his personal money.

Everything he had then a bit more besides to make it happen. I mean, we haven't seen the like we haven't seen the like of this man in centuries. >> Yeah. So, today's show is all about the rockets, the engines, the scale, the energy. All of these stories just came out this week. So, it's a pretty mind-blowing what's happening. So, this guy says, "Most people don't realize how insanely autonomous Falcon 9 already is. Once Falcon 9 lifts off, almost the entire mission is executed by the rocket itself." And the crazy part is, this autonomy does not depend on generative AI.

It comes from brutally refined flight software, physics, sensors, control theory, advanced optimization. Autonomously handles lift-off, stage separation, engine ignition, orbital insertion, booster boost back, all that. Um 70-m orbital rocket launches itself, separates itself, puts a payload into orbit, then the first stage falls back through the atmosphere, lands itself on a floating platform hundreds of kilometers offshore.

Physics, software, and hardware engineered to absurd precision. It's the greatest autonomous machine humanity has ever built and SpaceX made it look routine. Elon replied to that saying, "Over 600 autonomous rocket landings so far." Are they going to get rid of Falcon 9 now? Are you I think you said that >> No, no, Falcon 9's going to No, Falcon 9 is going to fly for quite some time because they already They've [snorts] already um taken contracts that go out for 3 years with the with the armed forces.

But, what's going to happen is that as Starship becomes more and more routine, as it takes over, so the people who have contracted for a Falcon 9 are going to start moving their their payloads to Starship. Starship's got a way to go yet. Because right now Starship is designed to carry, you know, these racks of these very flat satellites, and that's going to be the style that are going to be produced. But right now there are a lot of square, large square satellites, smaller large square satellites that need a different form factor, that need a different way of extruding them into this into space from the from within the rocket.

So, they Falcon 9's going to be a wave around for a while. Now, there is a whole family of rockets that are coming to replace Falcon 9. So, it's not as if the Falcon 9 mission is not going to be provided for by other rockets. Principally Stoke Space I think is going to win that race. But, you know, at the end of the day the cost of launching smaller payloads with smaller rockets is going to pale against what Starship is going to be able to do.

So, just as Elon completely revolutionized, over the last 10 years completely revolutionized, the path to space, Starship is going to again completely revolutionize the path to space. So, there's [snorts] a there's a there's a gap. There's a some time available for the Stokes and for the, you know, some of the smaller rocket companies to get some share of the market in this interim period of time. But at the end of the day they're going to have to compete with Starship.

And Starship, the cost to orbit is so incredibly low. It is so low that it is ridiculous. But, you know, there's this three-year window to get Starship fully productionized, and then there's the five- or six-year window to get multiple form factors and get that form factor thing sorted out. So, there's this gap, this space for people to compete with Falcon 9 in the meantime. Which is a good thing, you know. >> that we don't we want as many out there.

And the demand is so high that it's not a they'll they'll survive, I'm sure. That is the rocket. Let's talk to the engine. So, David Senator interviewed the CEO of Shopify and he and we'll play a video of him talking about Elon. But, this is Raptor 1, Raptor 2, and Raptor 3. And you can see how beautiful as it evolved as they kept making it better. Make it first to make it work, and then clean it up to make it more efficient, cut parts, cut, cut, cut, cut is what Elon always says.

We love this photo. Um and Tobi Lütke, who's the CEO of Shopify, he says that photo of SpaceX Raptor evolution is the most inspiring picture that exists. That's today's Picasso. Okay? Let's listen to what he actually said. >> Very often, especially in technology, the world belongs to the fast, the people who iterate, the people who like adjust, the people who understand what's costly and what's unnecessary, um and who prune away the rest.

Pixel for pixel, the most inspiring picture is the SpaceX Raptor rocket evolution. [music] You look at this and say, "Yeah, that's today's Picasso." But, we're not in a point of time where the great works and the masterpieces are being done by one person, they're done by teams. Very few teams can move forward by subtraction. That is like does not exist in the industry usually. Very, very, very rare. So, it's it's beautiful in that way.

You have [music] to do things different. You have to make them your own. You have to have mastery over the over the first version if you want to take this far further. >> Beautifully said. Yeah, I know you said the same thing a long time ago. >> [laughter] >> You love that photo, don't you? >> It's a very, very spectacular photo, but I you know, nobody understands just how spectacular the technology really is. You know, people are only beginning They're only beginning to understand what Elon said more than 15 years ago and made happen 10 years ago.

We haven't quite yet done it. I mean, that's not true. Blue Origin have done it almost twice. They've done it at least once perfectly. But 10 years after it became real. And after and 7 years after it became production it became like a daily occurrence. I mean, last year they did 100 and launches. And their competitors who never returned a single vehicle to back to Earth except for Blue Origins one did like handfuls.

I It And And then we have Bernie Sanders coming >> No, we'll we'll get there. We'll get there. That's our last topic. >> I get a little carried away. Sorry. >> I I I can see that that really is your top topic. I'm shocked that that's actually your bigger topic than the We're talking your favorite things, rockets and engines. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> [laughter] >> Yeah. >> We'll get there. We'll get there. All right.

So, this guy asked, "Are there any detailed technical explainers online that explain what all of that little complex bits and Raptor 1 actually do and how they were eliminated or combined in 2 and 3?" Guess Larry who answered him in detail. Elon. >> [laughter] >> Think this guy Elon knows this better than you know, the top engineers. I mean, he maybe not better, but he certainly is aware of it. How many CEOs would actually know this?

Secondary propellant and personal lines, wiring for power and sensing, sensors, avionic boxes, main chamber, spark igniters. Also many bolted flanges were replaced with welded joints. That really reduces mass and leak paths, but makes it harder order some parts. I won't go into the exact details as to how they were replaced except to say that they while while depleting part sounds easy in theory, it is actually very difficult to figure out how to do so in practice and requires many iterations.

I mean, I think he himself studied rockets and I'm sure he studied these engines and he was part of the team, right? That helped figure this out. >> Yeah, there was there were many meetings in which he you know, he tortured people about the existence of certain parts and how they could be eliminated. I mean, I don't I wasn't there. I wasn't in the room. But I know this for for a fact. I mean, and some people, you know, didn't really appreciate it and didn't really take the pressure.

Others really rose to the occasion. Not only took the pressure, but enjoyed it. I This is a very very very tough very very tough thing to do. But when it's done, the the rewards are just gigantic. And so, you know, I I have such enormous respect because here's the thing. He was not just the architect of the rocket. People think, "Oh, he had people come and design it." No, he was the architect. He was also the architect of of the simplicity of the rock.

In other words, he designed the reduction in the complexity. And by the way, this is not the first engine that they designed and they got rid of the parts. There was an engine before it that never made it into production. So, I mean, the amount of energy, the amount of work, the amount of pain that went into that that because of it's inexplicable. >> Yeah, it's it's crazy. It looks simple and so people go, "Oh, we can copy that." Mm, >> [clears throat] >> can you?

Can you copy it? I'm sure they can eventually, but it's about time >> If you look at the blue origin engine, which is methane as well, which is a methane oxygen engine. It's not a full flow, but it's a methane oxygen. I mean, it looks like it looks like I would not call it a work of art. It looks like a Yeah, like a scrambled egg. >> Maybe instead of the software industry, you should have been in the space industry, aeronautics. >> [laughter] >> Well, I got to build I'd built my own rocket as a kid, by the way. >> I remember.

That's so cool. >> Yeah. >> Time for you to build a new one. You're still a kid. >> Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. >> You could do it. You got time. You got time now. Come on there. All right. >> to just invest in them. >> Yeah. [laughter] Uh crazy fact, China has conducted 61 orbital launches so far in 2026, delivering an estimated 145 tons to LEO. Low Earth orbit. If Starship flight 14 deploys 30 V3 Starlinks, it will place 60 tons into a low Earth orbit, roughly 41% of China's entire 2026 LEO payload so far.

If it carries 40, that that's about 55% for 40 V3s. And this is just a Starship test flight. So, that just gives you a sense. >> Yeah, I think I think they're actually carrying 20. So, yeah, so it's really 2/3 of the of the 41%. So, it's really about 25%. But that's one rocket in the test mode. It will carry ultimately 60 in due course. So, you know, we're in very early stages, but I mean, you know, they had they they they had 180 of these rockets launched last year.

Uh of the Falcon 9s that, you know, had How you can compare this one company to a sovereign state? >> yeah, yeah. >> I mean >> With all the might all the you know, unlimited dollars. >> Yeah. >> Um Owen Lewis says, almost nobody realizes what is about to happen here. Once SpaceX gets Starship fully operational and they will, their annual mass to space will make everyone else combined a rounding error including China.

From Sputnik in 1957 to today, 7,117 launches and more than 22,196 tons of usable payload has been deployed to space by more than 20 countries and private companies. Now fast forward to 2030 when Elon Musk expects there to be 30 plus Starship launches per day. Let's be conservative and say 30 launches. 150 tons to orbit each. 4,500 tons to orbit per day. In 5 days, that's 22,500 tons. That's the same amount that was been done more than has been launched by every country and every company to date every 5 days.

I mean, that's yes, a put way to put it and Elon said, extending cautiousness to the moons and Mars takes a lot of mass. And so he's basically redirecting the things not that I'm beating everyone else. It's that well, in order to get the cautiousness to the moon and Mars, we need to do it this way. Comments on that Larry? >> Yeah, I mean he's changed the whole concept of space. Before Elon, the concept of space is that you can launch a dozen or so satellites a year.

Each one is an exquisite piece of equipment, thousands of you know, kilograms, lots of parts and very expensive to make and you make it in a clean room and it takes forever. That was the notion of space. And Elon said, that's not how to do it guys and everybody laughed at him and every and in fact he was hauled in front of Congress and castigated by these brilliant senators who are even today criticizing him. And he changed everything.

He changed everything. He changed our whole concept and today there are like couple of hundred space companies building rockets and building satellites and trying to become the next SpaceX. He's changed the world. >> He has a goal and in order to get there, it's not enough where we are today. He needs to be more. Okay, so that's the scale and he's thinking different scale than everyone else. Um it looks like he's on path, by the way.

But in order to get there, they need to it's the one of the key issue is energy. We're We're talking about AI compute now for the way we're just We're moving away from space. We're talking about SpaceX which owns a SpaceX AI which is compute and they integrated verti This is a Ark Invest Daniel Maguire his analysis of what SpaceX just recently did. They vertically integrated to accelerate gas turbine deployment. So last week, Elon and SpaceX confirmed that SpaceX acquired APR Energy.

This is a natural gas turbine manufacturer to speed turbine deployment by bringing in-house the casting of blades and veins. So now SpaceX AI is So the SpaceX's technology, their ability to create these materials which they do They build rockets. They are now using it to build turbine uh blades and veins because if that blades and veins are apparently the rate-limiting step, it's going to move forward the ability to create AI data centers by 18 months because you need the energy.

You need the natural gas turbines. Those guys need the veins and blades and that's I think there's only three companies that make it and they're booked out to 2030. SpaceX goes, we got the technology, we got the you know, we're going to build it ourselves. >> Yeah, just a correction. Only three companies that make turbine blades for turbines. [clears throat] >> Mhm. >> Um but however, they're SpaceX make blades for their own pumps.

Same technology. Just on a different scale. Uh but but probably even greater pressures. So they have the the material science and they have the manufacturing smarts to make those blades and veins. And so what they've done is they've bought a turbine manufacturer that's been buying blades and vanes. They're going to make the blades and vanes for that turbine manufacturer, and they're going to increase turbine manufacturing dramatically.

And so, they already have the skills, they already have the technology. And they're already building it, but they're building it for rockets, which, by the way, those pumps undergo much greater pressures than the turbines that generate electricity. They're different levels of pressure and different types of pressure, so it's not really like for like, but nonetheless, those blades undergo enormous pressure in in in the rocket pumps.

So, what we're seeing now is using all their smarts and then using their financial means to acquire a manufacturer of blades and vanes, and they're going to build them in-house for them. In fact, they're they're building an entire factory, a very large factory in Bostrup to to manufacture those. >> Oh, man, I don't know. What are you doing in your spare time, dude? You're just too smart. You just know too much. >> You know a lot.

Not really. All this stuff is online, you know. Well, I mean, [laughter] everything is online. >> of this stuff, and I follow half of this stuff, and I follow it close closely. You know, that's why you're the expert. I appreciate it. So, power has become a primary bottleneck in the deployment of AI compute. Most manufacturers of natural gas turbines are sold out through the end of decade. The shortage has attracted new entrants.

Boom Supersonic repurposed its Symphony engine core, originally designed for supersonic flight, into Superpower, a 42 MW turbine for data centers. Love it. What a great name. >> [laughter] >> As of last December, its backlog was above a billion dollars. Turbines are addressing the near-term bottlenecks. Elon expects that SpaceX and Tesla will reach 200 GW of solar manufacturing capacity by 2029. For context, that capacity is nine times the incremental gigawatts added by all players in the US in 2025.

Though only 2/3 of that incremental solar capacity that China added in 2025. Because China's still the leader here. Most of that capacity will support SpaceX AI's satellite ambitions, which will begin launching in Starship in the fourth quarter next year. Boy, he's he's truly addressing it. This is China, they're so far ahead of the US. Look at that, 10 times close to 10 times what US is producing in terms of uh energy.

This is solar capacity. And the SpaceX Thank goodness they're American company. >> Yes, uh that by the way is SpaceX and Tesla combined. The the total of solar power. And SpaceX and Tesla will each be manufacturing solar panels. Tesla in Houston. SpaceX in Bastrop, Texas. And they're manufacturing for different purposes, right? So, space if Tesla's manufacturing to produce power here on Earth, SpaceX is manufacturing to produce power in space.

So, so the power that they're going to produce in space uses a different type of panel. And for that reason, it's a different manufacturing process and different manufacturing plant. >> Uh quick quick story here on Starlink, another win here uh here with Argentina. Minister Sandra Petovello signed an agreement between Capital Humano Anacom and Starlink to connect rural schools and isolated communities. Starlink company will install 6,000 kits to provide reliable high-speed internet to rural schools and isolated areas throughout the country.

It's part of their initiative, um great photo. She's she's really happy. I love it. Good photo there. Uh and uh Starlink said Starlink with these two companies will provide 6,000 kits. Teachers can build lesson plans and all that. Elon said let's start link. Um, great. I mean, yeah, this is the kind of stuff that matter, doesn't it? >> Yeah, it would be great if Starlink had been provided to our own rural communities.

We had the opportunity 4 5 years ago and then FCC killed it. The the it's crazy >> Because they wanted to give billions of dollars to the existing um internet providers. And of course, it doesn't materialize. And then why don't just pay Starlink and it would have been cheaper. And it would be there quickly. >> They would have had it already. It's it's never going to happen now. >> Well, this is the conversation that we need to have, which is despite all of this that we just went through, despite the fact that you're competing against China and others, the politicians, the the enemies is high.

It's significant. Look at the value that Starlink is providing to thank goodness, you know, countries that need it, schools and teachers. But yet, here's Bernie Sanders and he says one man, Mr. Musk, owns more wealth than the bottom half of American households. >> That's not true. It's functionally incorrect. He made I don't know where he got his numbers from, but his numbers are out by a fact by a functional by 10? Something like 10. >> Okay.

Half of American, you don't think it's right. Meanwhile, 60% of Americans >> I mean, it's absolutely wrong. It's absolutely wrong. >> 60 It doesn't matter almost. 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Nearly 800,000 are homeless. 85 million are uninsured. Yeah, that's your problem. >> [laughter] >> That's why you're being elected to fix that problem. We can do better. We must do better. Agreed with you. We all agree here.

Okay. Mike Lee >> back to that. But all I want to say is this, he's got every one of his facts, every one of his facts wrong or incorrect or or or misapplied. Firstly, he's he's he's comment about owning more wealth than the bottom half of American households is wrong by a function of at least 10. It may be more. I mean so so bad. Then he says 60% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. He says nearly 800,000 are homeless.

They're homeless, perhaps. And perhaps there's 800,000. I don't know that the number's correct. But they're not homeless because of financial reasons. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> And then finally, the 85 million are uninsured. >> True. >> know what he means by quote uninsured. Maybe he means in health care terms. >> Mhm. >> But the [clears throat] the United States provides enormous amount of benefits to those 85 million. So, I mean, Bernie Sanders is unscrupulous in his lying.

Unscrupulous in his lying. A man who is a senator representing a state needs to check his facts and have his facts properly checked before he publishes it. This is not a political statement. This is just I mean, this is just you know, it's a question of of integrity. >> And he's he's getting votes. Mike Lee, another senator, has said, "The fact that Elon has lots of money doesn't make it yours or the government's or anyone else's.

It belongs to him." And Elon replies saying, "I have stock in SpaceX and Tesla, not some big pile of cash. As my companies do more and more useful things, their value increases proportioned to their projected usefulness. All shareholders benefit along the way, including most retirement programs. So, the you know, this mistake that says that he's so wealthy, well, why did he become wealthy? Because he created companies that sell to customers who want to buy it, consumers who want the electric vehicles, who you know, the companies who want to buy the the space transport, Starlink connectivity, all that." >> Crazy thing.

I I made the point about how wrong the statement is from a factual point of view. And Elon's pointing out how wrong it is from an intent point of view. From a value statement point of view. It it is crazy the way these people act from a political perspective. It is absolutely crazy. And and the truth is it's dishonest. And here's the reality. This senator owns three houses. Those houses do not produce a single good or value for anybody other than perhaps he and his wife from time to time.

As opposed to the wealth that Elon owns, which represents massively productive. Incredibly productive. We just talked about just the miracle of what he's done. The miracly miraculously productive assets. >> Yeah. Okay, well, this is the battle and it's uh still succeeding uh despite the attacks. And of course, the attacks will get worse as this changes more. >> As he becomes more successful. >> Yeah. And it's not just him.

Again, the point is that these are companies. And I know you specifically have done significant deep dive reports on not just the number of employees. That part everybody gets. The stock value that they all get. Hundreds of thousands of employees. But the suppliers, the thing it's just crazy. I mean, we're talking You saw this? One company's equivalent to all these countries. The value that they give to the entire economy is massive.

Starlink connectivity to the world. Cheaper prices. EVs. Autonomous. And now we're you know, the previous show we did was all about uh you know, transportation going down to possibly 25 cents a mile. >> That's right. >> Much cheaper than car ownership. The value to humanity is better. Net net is better um than any politics. But Okay, thank you so much, Larry. That was good. Um again, your knowledge about SpaceX is pretty good.

You're the man. Thank you. Appreciate it. Check him out at his website, luminsanity.com.