Market Review & NQ Futures Trade Recap 07/08/2026 transcript

My folks, welcome back. Quick little review here. Yesterday, I was showing you how when price was meandering around here, the open on this candlestick is the bearish order block. And we saw how that was implemented during yesterday's uh commentary. And then we had this idea of you know, because this candlestick's larger and longer than this one here, my order block theory is the last up close candle, if it's the largest one, consecutive candles make one order block.

But this opening here, it's not important. It's not pertinent to the idea of what price may or may not do unless price gets below it. Then that'll act as a change in the state of delivery as well. So, if we do this, there. Right there. Okay. And we'll make it red. You'll see how it appeared in my execution video. Okay? And looking to the left, we don't have any inefficiency, right? So, what do we look at? Well, the old man says, if there's a wick, you have to grade that.

So, we have that here. >> Can you see that? So, here's consequent encroachment of this wick right there. Right? So, as the market moves lower, it can reach down into this. And if it closes below this, that warrants what? Continuation going lower. But if it doesn't, then it doesn't warrant lower yet. It can retrace, it can consolidate, or reverse. Okay? So, with this idea here, we're going to drop down into the 1-minute time frame.

Otherwise, if I don't get going here, this video will be a lot longer than I want it to be. I know some of you like, "Go longer with it." >> [laughter] >> You addicts. All right. So, this morning, here's the home run right there. Okay? I want you to look at what we have. Several things here. Just look at price alone. Okay? Just look at price. What do you see? Market maker's sell model, right? Original consolidation, leaves consolidation, comes back, tests consolidation.

First stage reaccumulation, second stage reaccumulation, smart money reversal, low risk sell, first stage distribution, second stage redistribution, and then it drops down to take out the lows below what? The original consolidation, right? No. But but but you said When I first taught these things, I said that sometimes it will not take out the original consolidation. And needs know other things that lead to that understanding.

And I showcased that today. Okay, and I'll give you a little bit more details. Cuz I understand that sometimes it doesn't look so obvious, okay? But I just realized that I don't have Yeah, I don't have the uh the daily levels annotated showing on all time frames. So, bear with me for a second. Actually, I do. Forgot I removed them while we were talking. See, it's one of these Biden moments. So, my age fits is kicking in.

It's kicking in, man. So, if I had all the annotations back on, okay? See how nice that is? Control Z for the win. Control Z, the undo feature. So, here's that original consolidation. And price gets down to it. Here's the stage that accumulates, breaks through, comes back, tests the consolidation. First stage accumulation, second stage accumulation, smart money reversal, low-risk sell, first stage distribution, second stage distribution.

Now, there's other things on this chart, and I'll get to them in the moment. But I want you to look at this red line right here. You see what that is? That's that 29,282.50 level. That is the bearish order block on the daily chart. See what it's doing here? See that? Also, while I was sleeping, it was utilized over here. Look at that. That's brilliant. Perfectly delivered on the inefficiency concept when it comes to wicks that nobody else talks about.

I know I I I guy sent me a comment saying, "I'm tired of you always saying like you're trying to prove something. Bro, you rebranded Look. You're just parroting other less informed people. Let's say it nicely. Here's the wick here. And there's the I'm sorry, the close. And this the full wick, okay? Notice how price doesn't even close or even touch that. Is that bullish or bearish? Michael says real institutional order flow, algorithmic order flow, says that that's exceedingly bearish.

At the same time, we're trading at the daily bearish order block. See that? I just mentioned that yesterday. It's almost like I knew it was going to happen. But I'll leave that for you to determine if that was really the case or not. So anyway, let's go back over here. And get into this business and that we can wrap this video up, okay? So you see that 50 level down here? Is this a lingerer around? It went there overnight after selling off up here.

What is this pink box? What What that? That's the day opening gap. Okay? And we can scrub back here and we'll see that. Right there. Okay? I'll take it off for a second. See it? That's new day opening gap. That's where we settled at 4:59 Eastern time and then restarted at 6:00 p.m. Right there. So, the difference between those two is my new day opening gap. I'll add it back on. And this green line here is just simply the reference between settlement price and regular trading hours opening at 9:30, okay?

So, the green line there and there. So, that's the opening range gap. Okay? So, we had a little bit of a a discount gap at open. And let's widen this out a little bit. Okay? So, since we did not get a close below this level on the daily chart, we went down there overnight. This run all the way up here and then right at 9:00 it's part of a market maker sell model. It trades up into the new day opening gap, does not leave a body at or above its own consequent encroachment level.

That's again the new day opening gap for Tuesday for Wednesday's trading. Okay? In other words, 6:00 p.m. Tuesday Eastern time. That's that gap that I showed you. New day opening gap, NDOG or N dog as we commonly refer to it as. But, it fails to leave a body at or above consequent encroachment. At the same time, we're part of a market maker sell model where price starts the day exactly at 9:30 and goes straight from there up.

It goes into new day opening gap and it doesn't show any willingness by having a body at or above consequent encroachment, is that indicative of bullish price action? No. It's bearish. So, we can look at all these attempts in here to try to fake individuals out and they want to chase this going higher. This buy side imbalance sell side inefficiency here becomes a bearish inversion fair value gap. Okay? When the market breaks lower, it's coming down into this inefficiency.

And we're looking at it from the high of that candlestick. And there's a small little volume imbalance. Look at the the open on this candle. 252.75 The close 252.50. So, there's one tick higher at the open on this candlestick. See that? In in difference to the close of that candlestick. So, there's a small little volume imbalance there. So, it's not this is the fair value gap. It's this is the fair value gap. Okay? And as the price went lower and traded into this, it was unwilling to lay a body at or below consequent encroachment of that inefficiency.

So, again, is that bullish or bearish? Near term, it's bullish. So, the market's likely to go go higher, and it does. And it trades into the 10:00 hour. Breaks lower and gives us first stage distribution. Can it touch N dog low? No. New day opening gap low can't be traded to here. So, is that bullish or bearish? It's bearish. Look it breaks down. One more time. Rallies back up. Now, look what it's doing here. The inversion for a daily gap is showing s- it's signs that it's now being respected.

We have close below it here. And then tries to get up in there, but leaves the body outside of it. Is that bullish or bearish? It's bearish. So, market breaks lower. And now we want to see it perform as a inversion for a daily gap here. This is bullish in its formation because it's it's one by side delivery, not liquidity. So, if this is going to be a bearish market and move lower, this is going to reverse its role and not propel price higher like it does here.

It wilts through it. Look how it's using the body here. And then we close below it. We go a little bit lower. We try one more time. Now, here's where you have to blend a couple different things, okay? We have a short-term high here. A low and a higher high. This is your bearish breaker. Right here. Now, why am I not using this one? Because it has a wick. And I want to use the body that goes the lowest. And that's this one here.

So, if we look at like this, inside this is your bearish breaker. You see that? And while it's trading up into that, look where the bodies are. See how it's wicking through it, but it's going up to that order block from the daily chart that I talked about yesterday. Okay? So, when that occurs, it's wicking up through it, and then tries one more time, gives up the ghost, and trades lower. Close outside of here. So, now we have multiple reasons why this should be the basis of a turn.

We're inside the macro, so 10:50 to 11:10 Eastern time. You know, those things that supposedly don't do anything. >> [laughter] >> It's so funny. The market then runs lower, closes below, so now we're in a delivery that's timed and time-based, and then it's fitting the narrative. It's going to go lower. We have a low, relative equal low, a low here. Notice they didn't take the sell-side there. And it ran up. This right here faked a lot of people out.

Actually, some of the live streamers, you know, the ones with the big mouths, they were trying to go long here again, and then gave up the ghost, went lower. Okay, so if you look at it from the inversion fair value gap, once we left it here with the close, the body stayed in the lower octants of this inversion fair value gap. The wick can't even touch it in the consequent encroachment. That's weak. You're just going to have to submit yourself to time.

Wait, okay? And then finally it breaks aggressively to take the orders that are resting below here, here, and here. Now, that's not all it's going to do because we have a wick right here. You have to grade that in that 50% here. It trades up to it, falls here. That's going to be what? Bearish. And the market starts to careen lower. This is 9:30 opening price. And what I did was and we'll go to regular trading hours just for a moment.

So, what I did was I used this price here and this price here. Now, you can get crazy and look at that little tiny spinning top. I think that's what the Richard Dennis calls them. Not Richard Dennis, what's his name? Steve Neison. >> [laughter] >> Yeah, got it right. Okay, the close, okay? So, that's the close at 4:14 regular trading hours Eastern time. And then see open at 9:30 Eastern time this morning. Okay? So, those two price points here and here, that's your opening range gap.

Now, let's throw a fib on that just for a second. Okay? So, we have the 50% level here. How I know it's that one and not this one? Because this one, as I'm highlighting it, that little dot up here highlights. Okay? See? Boom. So, that's consequent encroachment between 9:30 a.m. Eastern time to 10:00 Eastern time, there's a 70% likelihood it's going to trade to that level. Half the gap, okay? Not always, but 70% is you got good odds, right?

So, we open and go right out the gate like that higher. And go right up into new day opening gap. That's what this is. Okay? So, new day opening gap is part of the regular trading hours opening range gap. And this is confusing for you, just go slow and look at what you're seeing on your own charts. And then don't have all this extra stuff on the chart while you're looking at your own. Okay? If you're just watching my video and assuming that this is just good enough, you're going to use my charts, you're never going to learn.

You're just going to be observing, and just observing is not the same thing as learning. Okay? It's not Netflix and chill around here, okay? Let's put it that way. I'm not going to say what I said before, but you know what I said if you've been around for a while. So, let's go to electronic trading hours. All right. >> [snorts] >> So, we have the market trade up into new day opening gap, consequent encroachment fails here, works lower.

We have the breaker, so we trade up into the breaker, and then we also have macro time and the bearish order block on the daily chart. That's that lower larger candlestick that was up close. And I said that until we got below it, it's not it's not a concern for us. There's no There's no concern for it to be changed in this day delivery. And it has to fit the narrative like it does here. Look how many things are warranting this to go lower.

Part of a market maker sell model, or the 1050 to 1110 macro. We also are inside of a breaker, high, low, higher high. Liquidity here and purged. It breaks lower, it's a second stage redistribution of a market maker sell model. This is going to be the largest easiest price run in the longest magnitude. Boom, right out the gate. Well, it does so here and it trades down to relative equal lows. And then these two equal lows here.

Now, why did I pick them? Why did I say I'm going to get out of my trade right below here and not go for the original consolidation? Because this area down here, it swept through it on a move that I missed while I was sleeping. This would have been an easy trade. Look at that. Relative equal highs, ran up there. Beautiful. London open kill zone. See you. Sold off. And I when I then admittedly, when I woke up and I saw the chart, I was like, "Oh, wow, look at that." This is one time I wish I would have had insomnia because I would have been all over this.

I would definitely would have shorted that. And now I see some of you are like, "Oh, yeah, right. Hindsight Harry, right?" Make my day. So, you're all welcome to have your opinions, but uh just remember you're all wrong. The relative equal lows there, I aimed for that. You can see that in the recording. And it's because we did not get a close. It's still part of the same day when it went down to this level earlier in the London session, but then it gave back all this to get back to new day opening gap.

Then we went lower, okay? And the only thing we done is overlapped the discount range of the opening. So, we went up, almost completely filled the gap by going here, but it failed at new day opening gap. So, because it went straight from opening at 9:30, we're part of a market maker sell model, it's likely to go lower, but not take out the original consolidation of my market maker sell model. and it's going to stop down here in a deep discount but not take the sell side liquidity.

So when I first started teaching market maker models it can go up to go down and clear the original consolidation. But when it's bullish it will not do that. It will not do that. So I elected to use the unicorn second stage distribution inside of a macro add a bearish order block that I told you yesterday once we get below it then it's salient. It's pertinent to what you would see in price action when it's time to consider it.

Look how many things are happening in this chart. You see it? It's a lot of things, right? So how many confluences do you need? How many? But here it's like huge. I mean it's There's so many things going for it to go lower here. It's it's an easy thing to anticipate. The problem is you have to be able to manage it with your stop loss because there's a lot of crazy wicks and stuff. Like cuz apparently you know the war is back on.

So it is what it is, right? So again I wanted to watch and see if we got below on a closing basis on this wick and we got it here. And then we came up failed to touch it here, failed to touch it here, here being the consequent encouragement of this wick. That's not support resistance. It's not support resistance. And that's not a supply zone. >> [laughter] >> Retail house this rebranded. Hello, hello. So it moves lower and then I did a few things here that you've seen me do before where I have measured like an old low and then the low is down here.

And then I'll get a halfway point in between. And the halfway move, it's funny cuz actually earlier when I was going through uh the TV guide thing on the the TV in the living room here. I wanted to see what time it was. And cuz I have a big house, I didn't want to walk all the way over to the bedroom to get my phone. So, I was like, "Well, let's turn the TV on real quick and then I'll see what time it is." And guess what movie was coming on?

Laurence Fishburne in Event Horizon. Isn't that wild? It's one of those uh singularity moments, right? So, here is Event Horizon. What it's doing is it's measuring the low here, two of these relative equal lows, and this relative equal low, okay? So, that's halfway. And went right down into it. I took a partial there. I'm sorry. Good grief, I'm talking to you like it's already on the chart. This old guy doesn't know what he's doing.

So, anyway, uh here I am getting short inside the breaker. And using this idea of this it's outside the coloring of the lines of this buy-side imbalance sell-side inefficiency. And I'm trying to finesse that entry right here with the breaker. Off of a run that just keyed off of the bearish order block. Okay? So, we're inside the macro time that doesn't exist that that the market doesn't worry about, doesn't even consider it, cuz it's all made-up stuff.

May have one more time hitting it here. And I missed the opportunity to add to that. So, it is what it is. The market breaks lower. Works in here. Works right at 9:30 opening price. And then boom, breaks lower, takes the sell side here. That's why this is dimmed out. And then right there is where I was gathering your attention during the execution video I shared on X. I was going to make it part of this video, but it just seems like it's too gratuitous.

Um just go look at it on the X feed and you'll see it. It's a short little vignette. I don't have any sound with it. It's just here it is, deal with it. And there's my uh exit at event horizon. It's almost like it reacted off of that. And then failed to get to consequent encroachment there. And the crazy is like Spider-Man web slinging, knowing exactly where to anchor your web before you swing. Swing. Stop. Swing. Right there below sell side.

And then finally full limit order uh collapsing. And what do you know it? Look at that. That's like near the low of the day. Regular trading hours, mind you. And then it rallies up, comes back down in fair value gap. And touches one more time. Old pool of liquidity. Rips higher. Bullish fair value gap handsomely now. Goes higher. 9:30 opening price being used as a discount PD array. Rallies higher. Fair value gap sell side liquidity.

Hits it, hammers it. Rallies up. In here, the order block changes its characteristic. All of this in here becomes like a foot like a foothold to go higher. Trades higher. Buy side liquidity. And full gap closure there. Okay? And runs through, comes back down in this inefficiency here, which was an inversion fair value gap. Lends itself to being bullish or a a bullish PD array. Does so here again. It's interesting, isn't it?

Like why else is it doing this? Because it has to do with this logic over here that no one before old man Michael gave it to y'all. And then look at this. Look how much time it spends in new day opening gap. It's pretty wild, isn't it? It trades up to consequent quotient to a old inefficiency. Dips back down and then here we have the opening. Here's 4 59. Regular trading hours close and then regular trading hours I'm sorry, electronic trading hours opening.

I must have said that wrong. Electronic trading hours closing, electronic trading hours restarting. So, there's an hour break there. And this meander around sideways. And this is where we're at. So, this is no man's land, okay? >> [gasps] [sighs] >> So, where does that leave us? Well, it leaves us with the undeniable fact that the old man knows what's going on. He's got his fingerprints all over it. Oops. Did I say that? >> [laughter] >> Until I talk to you next time.

Be safe.