Whats So Smart About My Concepts? transcript

Hey folks, welcome back to a short little review here on NQ and I have some things I'll take care of, so I may may attempt to do an afternoon review, but no promises. It doesn't look like I'm going to have the opportunity to do so, but in the event that I can, yeah, I'll certainly try my best, but real quick, we have [snorts] Monday's London session highs that relatively wise. We talked about that. Uh I'll since the close of Monday's trading.

Uh I felt that that was a likely draw and the other side of the market, the opposite side, uh during the review, I told you that these lows down here, they could take those out as well. So, since the market's done both, it's taken out this high there and it's taken out these relatively equal lows there. For me, the weekly range is fulfilled. Now, I don't care what it's going to do tomorrow with PPI or market uh reactions to consumer sentiment numbers on Friday or whatever it is the medium impact news drivers are.

I could care less what that is. Uh I like to look at the market in terms of where I think the the high and the low of the week could complete and then I leave my myself room to go do other things and not you know, worry about what the market's going to do extra. Okay, so we're going to go into this range here from this high down to this low. Why am I picking that one? Well, doesn't it look obvious to you? It stands out.

It's a very prominent price leg, just like this leg from low to the high is a prominent price leg. So, we have this dealing range high down to this dealing range low. If we put our octants and quadrant levels on there, just grading that price swing, that's how we determine where PD arrays should form and should they form at that gradient level or looked at level. Then they're perceived as high probability. They're validated, if you will.

That does not remove the necessity on your part as the practitioner or operator, you have to know where the market is likely to go. So, that's the reason why I teach that's the first thing I teach you. Go back through all the teachings I've ever done, the very first thing I teach is to know where the market is likely to go to or draw to. Where is it going? Cuz if you don't have that idea understood then initially, everything you do afterwards is going to be incorrect.

You have no You have no hope. So, you see I have a sell side imbalance buy side inefficiency here. Okay, so if we're bullish, I told you I wanted to see this traded to uh this will act as an inversion fair value gap. The market used it here during the London session and then we had this consolidation here and then at 8:30 when the news release of CPI comes right down to midpoint of this, but there's no smart money concepts, right Stacy? >> [laughter] >> You're so silly.

I love it. The market rallies up as a show of interest above this buy side once more and then rips through our target, which was the relative equal highs from Monday's London session. 29,984 and clearing that rather handsomely, the market has given up the ghost and now has been punishing traders trying to participate in either side of the marketplace. So, I'm personally done for the week, but I want to go into the 1-minute time frame.

All righty. So, we have our levels on that key dealing range and we're projecting them through price action. And we had the new week opening up. And when the market opened on the 8:30 candle right here, we opened, rallied up. You can't participate in this candle, okay? If you see someone that got filled on an 8:30 candle for CPI PPI, guaranteed guaranteed it was a demo account, okay? I promise you that they're not going to be able to get filled at a good price.

It's impossible. It's literally impossible. Limit orders are not respected. Um you're just simply going to get slipped so bad, it's it's not worth it. So, you have to wait a little bit, okay? Just wait a few minutes. Let that first candle do its damage or two, okay? One or two candles. So, 8:30 candle, 8:31 candle, and then around 8:32, 8:33, you can go in there and start looking for something that they left in the wake of all that volatility. >> [sighs] >> So, look what they did first.

Okay? They rallied up, approached the level, and then anyone that's long all through here, they get roasted. And then they come back down through new week opening gap one more time. Now, I want to show you the 15-second time frame. And by having this time frame, it'll allow me to illustrate the mechanics. So, we have the 8:30 candlestick here. And here now we start getting into where the market could potentially start going the other direction.

So, where could that be? Well, we went down into a discount array. You would not have been able to buy in that. So, as soon as we get this candlestick close, I'm looking at how we took out the sell side resting below here. And here. And you see that candlestick right there? Look at that. That is what we refer to as a buy side imbalance sell side inefficiency that retail traders that like to use nonsense will tell you doesn't exist. >> [laughter] >> So, here we have the buy side imbalance sell side inefficiency right there.

And or just break this over there like that. And it's simply a matter of knowing what to look for. So, I got the right colors here cuz sometimes I don't. And no extension to the right. Right? You see that? Now, in my mind, I'm thinking we cleared the sell side. That was the damage. This was the get. Anyone wanting this target which we've been looking for since Monday. They're going to get scared to take it now. Well, it went down to a smart money concept inversion for value gap.

And I get there's going to be people there's going to be people out there that just simply don't want to believe it because they like to have a moving average on their chart. They like to look at some kind of simple little break and retest type thing. And sometimes, hey, sometimes that stuff works. People win the lottery on weird things. But, I I don't deal with that kind of stuff. Okay? I want precision. Okay? And the logic that I teach around my concepts, which are smart money concepts, they're very specific.

And the rules keep repeating. There's something that doesn't exist that certainly exists a lot in price action. And I have students all around the world making lots of real money with it. So, we're not just talking about hypothetical stuff. We're not talking about what happened in the left side of the chart. We're actually putting action boots on the ground. We're in here doing it, okay? So, let's take a look at my execution.

Okay. Look where the Look where that little arrow thing pops up, okay? Watch. See that? Right inside that buy-side imbalance sell-side inefficiency. Now, the market is affording the opportunity to do so after that big 8:30 initial run. Like, it's clearing both sides of the marketplace. If it hadn't traded down into here, and if it would have went lower on the wick, then consequent correction. Now, if you just notice, it didn't touch it.

That's what makes it smart as a concept. It tells you it's bullish because that's the real order flow. But I know it probably would have been believable if I would have put a moving average on here, okay? But, you know, it is what it is. We're going to have to make do without them. So, here's the the long, okay? I'm adding three and three more right on inside of that. And if you want to, we can go down to a 5-second chart.

Let's see. Uh I'll come back to that in a second. So, I had a little bit of heat there. Went down against me to the tune of 824. About nine handles. Which is not bad on a CPI number post-CPI number release. Market trades above new week opening gap. We open, trade down into a little bit here, and then shows willingness to rip higher. Wonderful. Absolutely wonderful. Then, we use this candlestick's low to this candlestick's high right here.

That becomes an inversion fair value gap. Now, these are all things I only have so much time to look at this as it's forming because it's such a small portion of price action happening in a small little space of time. If price were to ever come back down into this, in the upper half of this, I would have added. Why? Because this high is going to be the target. Why? Because it ran there and moved away. So, CPI can be like a two-stage delivery, much like FOMC rate announcements, okay?

Um that's what makes high-impact news drivers tricky because they can be one-sided delivery, where it just goes and goes and goes, or it goes one swing and then reverses on the one that it created and then comes back for the initial higher low that it forms, which in this case is this here. Okay? So, in other words, when it starts dumping like that, people will get comfortable with wanting to go short and they'll chase that what they think is momentum and then they'll put their protective buy stops right above here.

Well, that's exactly where the market's going to go. But, now if it's just simply going to go there, how much further can it go? Well, remember, we have that Monday London session relative equal high, buy-side liquidity pool. You know, that smart money concept, they're running for liquidity. If it's going to go above here, it's likely to very much go above that. Because why just take out this on a data release where this is in close proximity to it?

So, how much further can it go above this? Well, you have to get the lay of the land, which is what I gave you this week. I gave you the high and the low that I'm interested in. Nothing beyond that. Never said anything beyond that that I again And that's what makes these concepts smart, you see? So, the market rallies up from here, doesn't quite get down into this. I would have preferred it for it to try to get down in there and get into this as an institutional order flow entry drill.

It just simply wasn't having it. It's fine. I'm positioned. The market rallies and it goes into this slow grind. Little bit by little bit. And eventually it gives this little bit of a head fake like, "Okay, I'm not going to go there. Haha." And then look at that. Look at that. Look at this. That looks smart to me. Okay, I don't know about all of you out there with moving averages, but this certainly looks like a smart execution.

Right there is the the business. Okay, so that looks like it's above 29,984, doesn't it to you? Sure it does. Sure it does. And then look at the reaction. I didn't get the high candle. That's a little bothersome for me. Okay, I I I wanted to do it. I wanted to do it, but I was like, "Eh, let me just let me just get the fill." So, that way I can get out there and rub the nose in it a little bit. So, the market drops lower, comes down, fails to touch new week opening gap there.

Fills in this inefficiency there. So, it's a side of balance by side of inefficiency and it's a breaker. So, it's So, it's a high, low, high. So, this down close candle right in here. There's two of them consecutively. Okay, so you have to treat it like an order block. You know, the smart money concept that supposedly doesn't exist. You have to take both of those together. And again, this is the 15-second time frame.

So, you take the full run of that two down close candles and look at this. It's inversion because it was used as a bullish order block there, but just to get the liquidity. Remember, you weren't looking for anything if been listening to me. You weren't looking for anything above 29,984 this week. It's interesting, isn't it? And then we run through it, and then we break down through that two series of down close candles, which is the lowest between two highs.

Second being the highest one. So, breakers are basically a run on liquidity. And then, if you want to do your classic support resistance retest ideas, if you have liquidity understood, and it does this, then then that stuff will work. But, you don't just simply go short simply at the at the low of this candlestick right here. That's what retail tells you. Retail tells you to simply just do a break and retest. And that's all you have to do.

But, you're going to take unnecessary heat on that. It's not It's not required to to be in there so fast. Let it dig into this range here. How much can you look forward to go into it? Well, what do I teach with order flow? The best VIP seating is going to be at the midpoint, which is consequent encroachment. Or in this case, mean threshold for the breaker, because it's a order block. Order blocks mean mean threshold is like the midpoint.

Gaps or wicks, the midpoint is consequent encroachment. Both middle, okay? So, from middle to the low of the PD array. Now, in that range, there's very specific price levels that you can grade. They're octants and quadrants. In this case, you only have one lower quadrant. Then you have an octant above and below that one lowest octant octant, or I'm sorry, quadrant. So, you have mean threshold, one level. Lower octant, two levels.

Lowest quadrant, three levels. Lower octant, but not low of the range, four, and then five, which is the low of the bearish breaker. So, we're not dealing with zones and just Well, indiscriminately just going out there and saying, "I'm going to shoot it with a shotgun and hope one of the pellets hit and then I'll come back and say, 'See how smart I am?'" No, it's those individual price levels that you can use. Okay? So, let's go into this a little bit and I'll break it down in scientific terms for you.

All right, so we have another episode of Mr. Wizard's World. So, we have the high down to the lowest low of these two consecutive down closed candles. And again, why am I picking these two? I know, I heard you. Why are you picking those two candles? Because we have a high, then a higher high that ripped through the liquidity at 29,984, which is what I talked about yesterday. I wanted to see price gravitate towards this level.

I felt that it was going to knock it out, and it did. So, here we have our key levels, which are the percentile high and low, respectively. Then the upper octant, upper quadrant, octant that's between upper quadrant and consequent encroachment, or in this case, mean threshold, midpoint. Then we have lower octant, lowest quadrant, lowest octant, and then the lowest percentile, which is the low of the range that's being defined.

Okay? So, now when we have that, we have very specific price levels where we can use for filling our orders and stop loss placements. Midpoint down to the lower half. In this little area right here, any one of these, which is the midpoint, octant, lowest quadrant, octant, lowest percentile. Okay? So, any one of these is exactly where you're going to place your order for a fill or try to get close to it. That's what you're targeting.

If it goes above the midpoint mean threshold that's just a bonus because I'm confident that the market's fulfilled enough for the weekly range. It's already done enough over here. It's done two stage delivery because one two more times and then look at the dump. Okay, so they purged a lot of liquidity there. A lot of you following me knew to dump your longs there. And I'm not saying anything beyond that cuz the first rule of Fight Club is we don't talk about Fight Club.

But here, this is like really really good premium best seats in the house, okay? But VIP seating is conditioned by entering on the lower half of what would be considered a an ICT smart money concept bearish breaker, baby. You like that? So if we're looking for uh very specific sets out of a a range defined by a PD array, we're not just going in there and guessing. That's what my science brings to it. It's not a matter of well where do I get in at?

Any one of these levels you could use as a limit order. Any one of them. Where would your stop loss be? Well, go over here and look at the candlestick that creates this big sell side imbalance fair value gap inefficiency that wastes the low, goes right through it, that validates this as a bearish breaker when it trades below here. See that? You got to go to that candlestick's high right there. Well, I don't know. That's a little bit too much.

It's cuz you're trading too much leverage, Samson. So you have to consider that as your stop. And it means that you might have to trade with lower leverage. And that's actually smart to do. Okay? So then the market does a a swan dive. >> Look at all this Look at all this teaching and goes right down into relative lows and back inside of new week opening gap. You know that other smart money concept that we have to extend through the entirety of the week, not just the first time it uses it, then it's done and you know, expired.

No. My concepts don't have a sell by date. >> [laughter] >> They don't expire, okay? They are continuously referred to, but for the sake of teaching so that way you can focus on a very specific range cuz there's a lot of stuff that that I have taught and created and brought to the industry and it's a lot. And I don't I don't feel bad when people say it's complicated. I don't feel bad that, you know, they say it's this, that, and the other thing.

All you're doing is telling me that you aren't equipped to use it and that's okay. That's okay. Not everybody's going to be a scientist. Not everybody's going to be an Olympic gold medalist. Not everybody's going to be the best of the best, okay? And it's okay. I I'm not going to fault you for that. But it is silly and it is comedy when I read other people literally say that these things aren't actually real. I I don't get it, okay?

But it is certainly fun. So we have a sell side imbalance by side inefficiency here. The market trades up into it here and here and dives down into that. Let me add it to you. See a little volume imbalance? You have to include that. Okay, now watch. Same bit of business. We're going to add from the volume imbalance high down to this candlesticks high here. Best seating in house is down here and all this is bonus. Anything in here at one of these levels here, if it trades there, that's where you'll see me many times pick off a um a market order.

Like I'll usually have like singles. I'll have like one like right now it has this here. But, if we're looking for the uh additional entries like for pyramiding, you know, I'll usually go in bring it down to like one and I'm watching. I'm usually already positioned with core positioning in my like sweet spot where I know I want to be in at. And I may be actually putting in a small portion area at the bottom end of this.

And as it goes in and attack this short-term high, that would be an area where I could be adding more. And I I hope I earned the right to be able to talk like this, folks, because you didn't see anybody else You didn't see anybody else today give you that and tell you in advance where it was going to go and stand by it. You're not You're not getting that, okay? No moving averages on my chart, Jack. I am moving the average.

The average of doing it right in front of everybody. >> [laughter] >> Okay, enough of that. I'm just doing it cuz I'm having fun. Okay, I'm having fun. Cuz I know where it came from. So, and again, it bumps it one more time. Look at the bodies respecting the low of it there. That's incredible, isn't it? And then it trades lower. Now, mind you, where does all this have to What's What does this have to do with support and resistance?

Nothing. Has nothing to do with the support and resistance. But, if you are thinking along the lines of how support and resistance should work conceptually, but retail teaches it to you in a way that is over simplification. And that's okay if you're comfortable with having 30% win rates, 40% win rates. You can make lots of money doing that. If you have sound money management, you don't over-leverage, you don't over-trade, okay?

A very low strike rate can still win lots and lots. But, the psychological impact of something like that wears on the new trader or the trader in in development. They want to have a little bit more consistency or at least strive to acquire a skill set that has a higher strike rate than sub 50%. Now, there's again, I have students that use my concepts, but because of their their skill set and their experience, they hang around 50% sometimes 55% strike rate.

And they've made millions of real dollars. Not paper trading, okay? Um at first they admitted that they didn't like the fact that it wasn't as high as they wanted it to be in terms of percentage of accuracy. But when it comes down to the nuts and bolts and where the rubber meets the road, what does it really matter? If you're not sharing your numbers, if you're not giving your business to the public who has the luxury and the amusement working a job criticizing you while you're no longer having to join the rat race because you've left it because you're now self-employed.

You're able to carve out your own income with your executions in trading. That's what it That's what it matters. It matters that other people's opinion about you and what you're doing has no basis on how you're going to live your life and how you're going to earn your money. If you get into business of trading to try to show how smart you are to other people, that's not the right reason. If you If you're trying to learn my stuff to get good at so that we can go online and you know, spar with trolls and and people that you know, just aren't profitable, they're not happy people, they're just miserable people or jealous.

You're doing it for the wrong reason, too. So, it's all about money. Okay? It's about money. There's no other reason than to do this but for to make money. Pad yourself out, to bless your family, to build a financial legacy, and teach your children how to pass it on to the next generation. Okay? That's what this is about. And anything else is extra. And extra's not It's not something that I try to promote. And one more time we hammer down into the low of the new week opening gap, and that's probably random.

But notice how it's using the upper half of this Look Look where the bodies are at right here. Look at this. I teach you to grade the wicks cuz this is a smart money concept. Take notes, Stacy. This point here to there. Watch. Where we got to hit I need a rectangle to thing here. Set. Half right there. Got to get away from it cuz it it'll try to grab. All right. And that is where the most sensitivity is going to be for a discount sensitivity or where your your view of a a supposed support level.

Which would be down here by definition. >> [laughter] >> It's not there, is it? It's not going down there, but it is going in the upper half of that wick. See that? Watch this. This and this. So, look where it's Look where it's building the body. Look at the wick. I graded it. Look at the body right here. >> [clears throat] >> Right on an octant. .625 of this wick. But there's no smart money concepts, Jack. >> [laughter] >> He trades down to the low of the new week opening gap, and then we get this little pop back in here.

Look at how smooth this is. See how smooth that is? It rips right on through that. This This right here is a nice little bread and butter scalp on a 15-second chart. And you you get these things like 50, 60 times a day. Like they're they're all the time. They're there all the time. But, hey, you know, who am I, right? I'm just a guy talking to you about hindsight all the time. I'm going to probably do a couple lectures you know, Thursday and Friday and maybe something special on Saturday.

But, other than that, I'm I'm done for this week. I literally destroyed it. And um I think if you were doing the math, you'd see six figures. Just do the math. You'll see it. And everything's explained. Everything's explained in the logic that I teach on this YouTube channel, absolutely for free. For free. No obligation. You don't even have to say thank you. How about that? All glory to the God. And I thank you, Father, for the giving me the wisdom to be able to share this.

And until I talk to you next time, Lord willing, be safe.