Bond COLLAPSE & Trump-Iran News JUST OUT transcript

As if right on schedule, Donald Trump is officially on the phone with reporters talking about how, don't worry, deal talks with Iran are still going on, even though Friday night after the market closed, I told everybody the deal was off. It's over. [laughter] Of course, you know, futures open in about 6 hours, and you don't want a Black Monday uh stock market crash, so you know, you got to smooth it over with some phone calls to reporters in the 6 hours before.

But anyway, with that, let's go into exactly what's going on just to prep you for Sunday so you can get back to actually enjoying your weekend. Uh, but we're also going to talk about the bond market tumult and liquidation fears and you know, has there been a time in history where the bond market yields rising like this have actually led to a good outcome? Well, we'll break that down in this uh because something usually ends up going wrong.

Let's talk about it, but let's get out of the way this Axios piece right here first. So, after nixing the Iran proposal, Trump tells Axio he expects talks this week, remember that the United Nations General Assembly meeting isn't technically over until Monday evening. Uh, and even then, it's possible that mediators may still stay in the New York area and continue discussions, but the actual event ends tomorrow. So, it's still going on.

A lot of people think, ah, UN's over, you know, Xiinping also took a lot of attention last week. you might not recognize, but Winnie the Poo, I mean, Xiinping didn't actually go to the United Nations General Assembly. It was sort of a little bit of a scorn to to the meeting. It's like, what? You're here. You're so close. You have your own Boeing 747. Like, you could hop over. It's it's not that hard and you're not going to go to the UN.

It's different topic. You know, people kind of have this impression that the UN's only there for the US and the West. And so, that's why you get some of these snubbings sometimes. But anyway, Axio says here one that they were on the phone with Donald Trump this morning uh and that Donald Trump expects negotiators to engage in more talks with Iran this week as Qatar and other regional mediators are trying to revive negotiations.

The the two sides were far apart on key issues. What was very annoying here was when you actually looked at the far apart. This really just referred to the prior rejection piece where we talked about how uh Iran has these demands that they want their sanction they want sanctions relief. They want their seized money back and they want the blockade to end. We've already gone through that. So there was really no news there on what key issues they're far apart on.

But you get a little bit of a hint from Donald Trump. Donald Trump says, "I expect more talks with Iran this week. they wanted to or they want to make a deal, but it is not the deal I want to make. Which is interesting because it does indicate that Donald Trump clearly is wanting to make a deal. This is obvious. We already expect that because if Donald Trump does not make a deal with Iran before the election, we expect Republicans are going to get schlaughtered in the election and everybody will blame Trump for that.

And if too many Democrats win, you end up getting a supermajority uh that that could essentially overrule even presidential vetos. And that basically strips Trump of all of his power and that's the last thing he wants. So the last thing he wants is this war to get worse before now and then. Uh the next thing is we expect that when Donald Trump says this the following here it's actually a good sign. Also if Trump doesn't make a deal we kind of expect the economy to collapse which would be bad.

So there are plenty of reasons to make a deal here. But anyway he says it is what we may have agreed to a year ago. They play they overplayed their hand. Now, this is actually really interesting because what Trump is saying is, "Hey, that's actually a pretty good framework of a deal a year ago, but you know, we're going to need a little bit more now because now you guys are suffering to our naval blockade, our air blockade effectively by sanctioning airports and gas facilities that fuel Iranian jets.

Uh UAE has canceled flights. other countries are at risk of sanctions or companies are at risk of sanctions if they support Iranian flights. So Iranian flights have tanked. Uh and then in addition to that, you've got the border issues with countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan. Which is crazy because Afghanistan's run by the Taliban. But even them, they're like, I don't know, man. Do we want to let y'all cross the border?

Maybe we need some bigger bribes here because, you know, we face some sanctions risk. I'm obviously oversimplifying, but that is what's going on and we've been covering this and it's it's wild. So Donald Trump is essentially saying, "Yeah, you know, that's actually not a bad deal from last year's point of view, but now [laughter] now I'm going to need a little bit more compensation." It's almost sort of like, you know, imagine somebody in Florida is trying to sell a house and we were, we just went to Florida.

Well, team member of mine went to Florida. Great job, by the way, with what we found out on the ground in Florida. I really need to make a separate video on this, but uh there's there are parts of Florida that are really struggling uh in terms of home prices, but it's sort of like imagine somebody has a house for sale and it's listed at $500,000 and you write an offer at $400,000 and the seller's like, "Ah, 100 grand under.

F you. That's a scam." A year later, the seller is at $399. And they're like, "Hey man, is your 400 offer still good?" And then you're like, "Nah, man. Now it's 350 [laughter] or 300. You know, Florida's having some problems, but it's it's an overbuilt area. And and that's that's, you know, when when you invest in real estate, you have to know that. That's the most important thing that, in my opinion, you could do when you do due diligence on real estate is if you go buy real estate, you want to buy real estate where the cities are a nightmare to permit building.

And then if you ever try to get permits and they deny you, you should write them a thank you card. You should you should not take out the bat to be angry. You should go, "My golly, thank you for keeping homes unaffordable for everybody else cuz it's just increasing my equity." That's obviously evil, but as an investor, it is a hedge, right? Uh and so that is why you could actually get affordable homes in places where they built.

Imagine that. If you increase supply, prices go down. No, people have such a hard time realizing that. They're like, "Oh, no. the the developers in New York are just greedy. No, you don't let us build vertically in Brooklyn any more than four units before punishing us. So why would we build more unit? It's it's insane. Sorry. So my point of this is negotiationwise, I actually see this as a good thing. And I know I just went on this little real estate tangent, but I think it's a sign that if that developer or that home investor is saying, "Yeah, well, I'll pay you 350 now." It's a sign that you're not going f off.

I'm never doing a deal with you again. It's just a sign that hey, I'm going to need a little bit more now. It's not saying f off. And that's exactly the message Donald Trump is trying to convey here. Uh mostly to suggest, hey, we can still do a deal. Now, another thing that's interesting about Iran is we actually had this morning that uh there was talk about Iran, and this is, you know, from from news coming from the president uh of Iran, that Iran is open to allowing UN weapons inspectors from the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, back into the country under formal negotiations.

So, you actually have Donald Trump kind of softening. And of course, it's a soft taco. Okay, we're going for not a corn taco today. We are going for the wheat taco. Okay, wheat white taco. That's not redundant cuz there's whole wheat and it'd be brown. Point is, it's soft. I have this like squirrel problem. I think it's like either autism or some other problem. But anyway, uh the IAEA is critical here because now they're coming out responding to the president of Iran saying, "Hey, you know, if you guys are good with us doing inspections, we can actually ramp up these inspections pretty quickly.

Like there won't be a big delay. like we'll get on the first sanctioned Iranian flight tomorrow and show up. [laughter] Um, so that's good because now you have the head of Iran going, "Yeah, you know, we'll we'll open up the cheeks again." And the IAEA going IAEA going, "Yeah, we'll go deep as soon as you want. We're ready." All of those things suggest the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. I think overall market sentiment and people's sentiment is very negative on this because we've seen so many deals fall apart.

But I'm seeing more puzzle pieces come together whereas previously they were really scattered and it's like really this this shell of a deal is supposed to hold. Yeah, right. This is starting to look better. Uh there was also some news this morning about or or some rumor mill on X about the Iranians capturing uh an underwater US UAV and they have this sort of imagery here with some loud annoying music about how they've captured this Sentcom and they've done this before.

Sentcom has come out and said, "No, this is utterly false. We have control of all of our drone assets. The Iranians are clearly desperate." Whatever. Like I don't fully believe SenCom when they say they aren't doing something because they're really clever with their wording. Like back in May when we started escorting ships at night to get through the straight of Hormuz to get oil out, they're like, "We're not providing security in the region at all.

We're escorting no one." And then two months later, they're like, "Guys, we are so proud. We have gotten over a billion barrels of oil out of the Middle East with our security transport and insurance bailout of ships in the Middle East. So, you know, you just have to take like I don't know. I I feel like sometimes the older you get the just the more jaded you get. But but then, you know, more and more it's kind of like ah see we were right to be jaded.

But anyway, so so you got that on the drone, you got the IAEA part, you've got this talk from Axios on Donald Trump, which I actually think is good. Donald Trump uh the US military is facing uh or is is facilitating a lot of oil coming out of the straight of Hormuz more than 20 million barrels. This is a daily figure. It was Chris Wright previously said 17 million. Now it's 20 million. And so it's unclear if that's sort of Donald Trump rounding or what it is.

But anyway, behind the scenes, US officials and two regional sources told Axio that Qatari mediators are continuing to shuttle diplomacy to try to reach a deal. On Thursday, the Qataris met in New York with the Iranian president and discussed a potential deal. Which is conveniently right before all of a sudden the Iranian president's like, "Oh yeah, by the way, we're open to weapons inspectors again. Like, please stop hurting us." Anyway, uh the other thing that obviously is going on right now is uh the bond market, which is really interesting right here.

Stocks are defining defying surging bond deals. Here's what history says happens next. So, we went through this uh a couple days ago about how we talked about there's always a shock when yields rise this fast. Something always breaks. Silicon Valley Bank, the Black Monday market crash of 87, whatever. There were 16 instances where bond yields have skyrocketed this much at this pace on the tenure and something has always broken.

Uh that may be true. Again, we don't know what it is yet. But the Wall Street Journal has an interesting piece here about the longer term because even if a bank collapses, for example, the stock market can survive. And I don't want to look at this with rosecolored glasses here, but the Wall Street Journal says, hey, like in the longer term, you could go either way here with the stock market, which I know isn't very useful, but there's so much negativity that, oh, this means the stock market's only going to go down.

They give examples here. In 1994, the bond market sell-off led to uh a stock selloff with the S&P 500 dropping as much as 8% when they had their sort of midcycle adjustment, which is exactly what I think Bolard mentioned this midcycle adjustment is now. Uh and then of course yield surged again in 99 and then you had the dot bubble. Those were all kind of bearish. You had the 2006 surge which that was bearish. But then in 2016, so those are three bearish examples.

But in 2016, bond markets, the bond market sell-off actually aligned with stocks going up. So in other words, I think the Wall Street Journal is saying even if we do end up having a little bit of a shock, the stock market could still go up. Personally to me, I don't really care about any of this crap. I do think somebody's getting liquidated in the bond market and and we'll find out what that shock is. But I think what's more pressing here is this deal with Iran.

And I I know I feel like I'm like the Iran guy. I talk about this every day. Uh but it's also so important because if this goes bad, the economy collapses. It like just just start raising cash. But that's the opposite of what I'm seeing right now. I'm seeing more signs that this is going in the right direction rather than the wrong direction. And I know then I get comments of people like, "But cousin, the stock is only 2% off alltime highs or you know, whatever it is on the given day." And it's like, "Yeah." So, it would be a lot higher if it weren't for this Iran crap and this yield crap.

[laughter] It'd be even higher. That's the thing. So, it's sort of like don't compare now to all-time highs. Compare now to where we would be if it weren't for Iran. Uh and and that gap right there is what I think is coming to close. It's going to be delicious. Anyway, dang. I didn't even have a sponsor or anything for this video. That's all right. I love y'all. Just subscribe. We'll see you in the next one. If you like that video, check this one out.

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