Bitcoin Closes at the 50 Week Moving Average transcript

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin as it closed right at the 50-week moving average. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs-up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin's currently right around $80,000, but we essentially closed like right at the 50-week moving average.

I know that might sound like kind of weird to say we closed at it. Uh we are either above it or below it, but it kind of depends on like what exchange you're using. Like some exchanges it actually closed above it, and then other ones it closed below it, uh believe it or not. So, we're kind of like right on it, and um and if you don't believe me, like if you look at at this one, you can see that on the on this index one here, the 50-week moving average uh was or I guess it was around 80,361 like at the end of last week, and we closed at 80,360.

So, I mean, you're talking about just like cents below the 50-week moving average, right? Like not that far below it. But, and and of course, if you look at at some of the other exchanges, like if you look at at at Coinbase, I believe it was slightly below it. So, the 50-week moving average on Coinbase was 80,343, and we closed at 80,339. So, $4 shy. And and if you go through the list, like I think you'll find some that were above it.

So, this one for instance, you can see that the close was at 80,412, uh but the 50-week was at 80,335. So, in that in that case, it was above it. And if you go through the list of exchanges, some are above it, some are below it. You know, it is what it is. The main one I'm using right here, uh that I tend to use is is kind of like right at it. It was not even like not even a dollar shy of it. Uh but regardless, Bitcoin closed at its 50-week moving average, right?

We don't need to nickel and dime it to say whether it's above or below. It's basically at the 50-week moving average. Now, when you zoom in to like what actually happened here on the 4-hour, Bitcoin actually did make a slightly higher high, right? So, it it sort of like continued this ascent uh from these prior highs. So, it did make a higher high and go all the way up to uh around 82,292. Now, this still represents a slightly lower high than where it was back in May.

All right. So, at this point, it is still representative of a of a lower high. Now, th- one of the things that this drop corresponded to that we saw back on Friday, as I'm sure many of you guys are aware, was the nonfarm payroll report, right? So, we actually had a fairly hot jobs report. I posted a video on that a couple of days ago. And I guess you could argue that because it was a good labor market report, the odds of a rate hike kind of went back up a little bit, right?

Cuz they'd gone to about 50/50. And then and they were previously like 67% likely to have a rate hike. And and then um we had uh I believe it was Waller uh who came out and basically said that he's not convinced he he was looking more so to keep rates constant uh at the next meeting unless there was inflation data that came in that really would support a hike. So, that kind of got it back to 50/50. And then with the labor market report, it it sort of tilted it back in the direction of of a rate hike.

And, you know, as that happened, Bitcoin basically just completely sold off. But, at this point, like you haven't you know, it hasn't really broken one way or the other. I mean, I it seems like the bears and the bulls are still battling it out basically right at that 50-week moving average. So, you know, we basically need to see, you know, if we can actually get above it and not just kind of close right on top of it.

Now, I will say this, in terms of like, you know, bear market, bull market, whatever you want to call it, um in order it it in order for a Q4 low, right? So, let's suppose there is actually a Q4 low. In in order for that to happen, I would think that this would need to get faded pretty soon. Okay? Because if it doesn't, if you look at the 50-week moving average, the 50-week moving average is heading down. So, the new week, we've already, you know, this week, the 50-week is, you know, a little bit low, 80,000.

So, we're already above the 50-week moving average this week just by the nature that the moving average is in fact moving down. So, I think the argument here is if this is going to play out in typical fashion, I wouldn't expect it to spend a lot of time at the 50-week moving average because the longer it spends at the 50-week moving average, then you start to say, you know, what? It it it's more likely to break through.

I mean, look at what happened in 2023. Like, we spent a long time right at that 50-week moving average, we eventually broke through. And if you look at at 2019, you know, the longer we hung out right at the the 50-week moving average, we eventually broke through it. If you look at the examples where we were rejected by the 50 week, like 2015, you can see that we were we were basically getting rejected right as we got up there and just continuing to slowly trend down.

And we didn't really continue to just kind of hang out at the 50 week moving average every every week. We got up to it and then the next week Bitcoin dropped 12%. Right? And then we barely got back up to it again and then Bitcoin just sort of fell off. Whereas again in 2019, you can see there wasn't any major rejections, right? We just kind of got near it, had a few weeks above it and then finally we blasted through.

And I think the reason for that is because again in this case with the 50 week moving average heading down, in order for Bitcoin to be rejected, it needs to go down quicker than the 50 week is going down. Now again, you know, is there going to be some type of catalyst this week? Yeah, I guess you have the inflation report. I believe uh I think it's later this week. I think like in 5 days or so. Um so that will be something I suppose that the market will watch for this week and then of course the week after you have the Fed meeting.

So um that's where we are right now. You know, as of as of right now, Bitcoin has rallied essentially 40% off the lows, which again is not that crazy, right? I mean it's not that crazy of a move. Uh summers typically have these 40% rallies as you can see in 2018 and 2022 and of course now in 2026. So it's not like it's not like we haven't seen that before. The question just becomes now like, you know, do we does it resolve down and we get that final drop like later in the year?

And I think again the answer to that question will need to get basically answered really really soon because in 2018, um the last lower high that we had, right? That got rejected, this lower high right here. There was So there was one in July, there was also one that got rejected uh and that was in early September. So, you know, if you look at uh like if you were to go look at year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin, so if we go take a look at the year-to-date ROI, and you look at 2026 versus 2018, you know, that that final lower high occurred in early September.

Uh so, as as the year goes on, if Bitcoin does not start to fade at all, then the bears will just simply run out of time, right? They'll run out of time to make the case for the continuation of the bear market. So, in Q4 of 2025, it absolutely made sense to be a bear, right? Because that's when Bitcoin always tops. And it was more dangerous to be a bull at that point because to be a bull was to basically say that this time was different.

And while I know a lot of people thought that, it wasn't different, right? We we still topped out when we always do. So, then the question is is, you know, does this just resolve in the same way where we kind of head back down and and put in you know, and and head back down into the fourth quarter of the year like we previously have. I will say this and I'll say this plainly as I can. Multiple closes above the 50-week moving average typically signifies the end of the bear market, okay?

Like if you look at 2023 and 2019, like once you get through the 50-week moving average and and also in 2015, so 2015, 2019, and 2023, once you get through the 50-week, the bear market's over. There are times like in earlier 2015 where we were rejected by the 50-week moving average, right? So, it's not like you can't be rejected by it. We also got rejected by it in 2022. We didn't quite get up to it in early 2026, but we almost got to it.

Um And and so I think the the sort of the consideration point here is to say upon these closes above the bear case would significantly weaken, right? Like significantly weaken. And when you look at a Bitcoin in 2022, you can see we even got above it. But there was no follow through on it. And and so that's where I am right now. Like I mean, where we we closed at the 50-week moving average. Some exchanges above it, some ex- some exchanges below it.

But we're we're essentially at it right now. And so if this is to resolve like prior midterm years then the expectation would be that it would not go on for much longer. And so every day that it does continue with every day that Bitcoin just kind of slowly goes up and stays elevated the bears start to lose um you know, evidence for the bear market. I would still say there's maybe still there's still time for that to play out if it if it like in 2018 where it started in early September, but again, we're running we're running out of time.

So, Q4 is coming up. It's almost crunch time. We'll see if this happens. There are some patterns I was looking at throughout prior markets, not in Bitcoin, but in other markets. I know a lot of people you know, try to look at like Bitcoin fractals to then explain um like what Bitcoin will do in the future. But I've actually found it way more useful to look at what other markets have done previously and and then use that to then get an idea of of like what could happen in Bitcoin.

Um because I feel like a lot of times like once the lesson is learned in Bitcoin, like once Bitcoin tops a certain way or bottoms a certain way, then the next cycle it does something kind of completely different. So, you know, a couple of cycles ago we had a a euphoric top. Then two cycles ago, or sorry, or let's say one cycle ago cuz this is the current cycle. So, one cycle ago though, it was a double top. So, we had a euphoric top, and then a double top, and then an apathetic top.

So, you see how they're all different? A- And that's the reason why it it makes sense to kind of like look elsewhere for how this stuff could play out, because if you always look at Bitcoin in terms of the nature of the top, and then the nature of of how the bottom's formed, it tends to like be a little different each time. And I know you might be saying, "Well, the the the lows have been in Q4. That was always the same." But the the way in which it happened was always different.

So, like last cycle, we swept the prior highs. That was the first time that it happened. Because all prior bear market lows were way above prior market cycle highs, right? I mean like well above where they were. So, last, you know, in two cycles ago, right? When we when we did that, um, that was something new. And a lot of people were basically saying we won't go below the prior cycle high because it's never happened before.

And then we still went below it anyways. Okay? And so, that was something that new that had happened. So, I think it does make sense to like look at patterns in other markets, and I'll probably do a video on that relatively soon because there are some interesting patterns that I've found, and I've talked about some of them before. But, um, I think we'll see what happens. Like we'll see what happens this week. And I'm I'm to be out of town.

I'm going to be traveling and I'll be gone for almost like like for like 10 days. So, I won't be able to make as many videos here in just a few days. Like, I'm I'm still not leaving yet, but don't make my, you know, potential absence of videos as as, you know, meaning something behind what I think's happening. I just will be traveling a lot and won't be able to make videos for for a little while. But, I I might make some pre-recorded videos to release while I'm gone.

So, not a huge I mean, honestly, I was kind of hoping that we I could come on here and basically say we're either above it or below it, but most exchanges, it looks like we closed below it. And then there's like one or two where we closed above it. So, we're kind of like right in the in the middle. And let's see what happens with the inflation report this week. If it comes in hot, then I imagine the rate hike probability would probably go up quite a bit.

Which, as we saw with non-farm payroll, would likely kind of hit Bitcoin back down at least in the short term. Okay? So, those are my views. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up. Again, check out the sale on Into The Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. And I'll see you guys next time. Bye.