Bitcoin Golden Cross transcript

Hey everyone, and thanks for dropping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and the golden cross that just occurred. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on IntoTheCryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. As a reminder, we are having the first ITC conference coming up later this year in November.

So, make sure you guys get a ticket if you can go. It will be in Miami. Let's go and jump in. So, Bitcoin just had a golden cross. And a golden cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. Now, what's interesting about golden crosses and death crosses is that oftentimes the initial reaction is the opposite of what you would expect. Now, sometimes the market trends up after that, sometimes it doesn't, but we'll we'll talk about that.

We'll look at we'll look at how it's played out previously. But, what normally happens, regardless of the ultimate direction, is that Bitcoin will sell off, typically, from the local high on a golden cross. Okay? So, let's go back and look at what happened in 2023. We had a golden cross in February. And as measured from the local high that occurred a few days before the golden cross, Bitcoin dropped about 12% rallied up to a new higher high, and then all the way back down to the 200-day moving average.

So, you And we were setting slightly higher highs. You see those slightly higher highs? Very similar setup to today, right? Very similar setup where you have um slightly higher highs, and then you sell off into the golden cross. And what happened back then, again, Bitcoin fell a little over 12% or so. So far, Bitcoin's down like around 5 or 6%. A 12% A 10% drop or so would could you into like the low 70s. A 12% drop would get you back closer on 72,000.

But, that is what happened in 2023, right? So, it sold off, it then rallied, and then put in a higher high, and then a lower a lower low, not a new cycle low, but a sort of local low, and then we were sort of back in business going into um March and April of the pre-halving year. In 2022, or sorry, in 2019, it was more or less the same thing, okay? So, in 2019 we had a golden cross. You had slightly higher highs that were occurring, right?

So, very similar setup to today as again. Three higher highs, we just had that this cycle as well. A golden cross where Bitcoin sold off about 14 to 15%, and then it it rallied higher after that. So, again, a 14 to 15% drop, which is what Bitcoin did in 2019, would put it right around $70,000. Okay? So, you got two examples, and in both cases, the golden cross marked a correction in the market, but it was not a correction to a new low, it was just a correction.

That's led to a higher low, and then ultimately higher high. If you go further back, that's where we kind of muddy the waters a little, because there are times where we have had golden crosses, and then we ultimately went lower. But, I want to show you what happened. So, in 2014, we had a golden cross right here in July, and Bitcoin fell into it about 8 or 9%, bounced back up, but then proceeded to go down into August, and really it went all the way down into an October low, okay?

So, the only time that we can see here that a a golden cross occurred uh coincided with a lower low was actually in the midterm year. So, in in 2014, we had a golden cross, we got a rally before the golden cross cuz the rally is what caused the golden cross. We dropped, rallied again, lower high, and then down into a lower low. That was a midterm year. In the pre-halving years, you can see that the golden crosses have been much more instructive or constructive on on the Bitcoin price.

The other time that we had a golden cross was in a pre-halving year um where it resolved to the downside. Okay? So, here's an example in 2015 where you Bitcoin topped just shortly before the golden cross occurred, dropped about 13%, rallied back up to a lower high, and then down. So, for me, golden crosses, like what you're seeing right now, and getting a drop right as the golden cross occurs, is not that surprising, right?

Like, that's not that surprising. This is what tends to happen is that you get a golden cross, and then the market dumps. What's more important is what happens after the initial dump, right? Cuz a lot of times you'll get like, you know, like a 10 to 20 or 10 to 15% drop. And what's more important is what happens after that. Because what what happens is you you you rally, you set the golden cross, Bitcoin then dumps 10 to 15% approximately, and then you rally, and then that's where you see if you set the higher high or the lower high.

So, in 2014, 2015, right? You can see we were also kind of setting higher highs here in 2015. We broke through it. Uh golden cross occurred, and then down. Okay? In 2014, you can see we went up, golden cross occurred. After the rally was a lower high. So, that's the key thing, right? Is the difference between a lower high after the golden cross, which is what we got in 2014 and 2015, versus a higher high, which is what we got in 2019 and in 2023.

So, that will be basically, I think, the answer to the question that everyone wants to know. Is after the the sort of the the dump from the golden cross finalizes, right? Whether it's 5% down, 10% down, 15% down, wherever it is. Wherever it finalizes, there should be a rally on the other side of it. And if that resolves to a lower high over that week or two, then you're much more likely looking at a at a drop into Q4.

If it resolves into a higher high like 2019 and 2023, then at that point the bear case becomes substantially weaker, right? Substantially weaker. And you know, that that is is kind of the That's the point, right? Of the video is is look, golden crosses bring dumps in the market. This is not unusual. Even even for the people that are are are, you know, 100% in the bull camp, you can look at this objectively and be like, look, we always get dumps after golden crosses.

So, this is not abnormal. What we need to look at is what happens after this dump is over and the next rally begins. Is it a lower high or is it a higher high? We've got a couple of examples in, you know, 2023 and 2019, pre-halving years, where it was a higher high. In the other pre-halving year, 2015, it was a lower high, and in 2014, it was a lower high. And we didn't have golden crosses in 2018 or in 2022. So, there's not that many examples of golden crosses in midterm years and or pre-halving years.

There's not that many examples. So, that's what we're looking at. Let's see what happens. Again, golden crosses often bring short-term dumps. It's on the other side of the dump, do we do we rally to a higher high or lower high? And coincidentally, that would have simply correspond to the 50-week moving average. So, if Bitcoin drops here and then rallies back up to the 50-week moving average and breaks through it and sets a higher high, then you have a strong case that the bear market low is in.

But, a 25 a 2015-style dump, right? Where it just goes back up and gets rejected by the 50-week again, that's when you make the case for the drop into the fourth quarter of the year, like it played out in 2015 or like it played out in 2014, where we had the rejection after the golden cross and then we had the dump into October of 2014. So, I know this might not necessarily being the most satisfying video, uh but the reality is is is no one truly knows what's going to happen, and I'm just trying to communicate here that if you're a bull, you don't give up the bull thesis just because you get a dump into a golden cross.

The the bull thesis fades when the rally after the golden cross dump is over. When that resolves to a lower high, that's when the bull case is in danger. The bull case is not usually in danger just on dumps after a golden cross occurs. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and also make sure to check out the first ITC conference taking place this November. Hope to see you guys there, and I will see you next time.

Bye.