The Most Obvious Stock Today... transcript

What's up everyone? Welcome to day 31 of my brand new small account challenge of growing a $2,000 account using Charles Schwab as my broker. Today is kind of an interesting day. Yesterday, day 30, was the biggest green day so far during the challenge. I grew the account by 44% in one day. And now today is one of the smallest green days of the challenge. It's funny how that can happen. A huge green day and then, you know, kind of nothing the next day.

Well, if you tune in to my large account, my main account recap, which I'll upload later today, you'll see that it's actually a big red day in my main account. And this is more common that you have a big green day, you get a little overconfident, and then you give it back. And this could have nearly been a red day in the small account. Um it it wasn't. I sort of narrowly avoided that, but but in part because I was getting really stubborn.

Yeah, rather than just cut the loss on the trade that I did take today, I waited a bit longer, came back up, I thought it was going to keep going higher. It it that didn't end up working out well. I took a loss on it in my big account, but in the small account, as you'll see, it it is a small green day. Now, as you know, all the profits uh from the small account challenge are getting donated to charity. And every time you guys hit the thumbs up, I add an extra dollar to how much I'm donating, and we've now raised over $430,000 for charity.

During these small account challenges, I've donated $425,000 to 40 children's hospitals across the United States. We've got 10 left to donate to, and I actually could donate uh another $5,000 today. I just haven't done it yet. So, I'll probably do it on Monday. But uh in any case, this is where we're at right now in this goal. So, today, day 31, we came in this morning with dispersed attention in the market. Sort of similar to yesterday.

There were a lot of stocks moving, but none of them felt like it was completely obviously the one and that created a challenge in figuring out which one I should trade. So N A M I was the leading gainer and you can see this big move that it had put in. Well, the challenge with this was that we had also had C L R O which put in a really big move just the other day and a squeeze after hours in fact. Coming into pre-market, it sort of looked like C L R O was going to continue higher and then we had this rejection right here, a pretty big one at 7:00 a.m.

So C L R O had looked good and then we got this big rejection. N A M I this had begun the move in the after hours session, you know, it looked like it was going to work and then it it just ended up even though it was obvious, you know, really heavy up around the top. I ended up trading it in my big account and I was green on it and then I flipped from green to red on it on one of these dramatic topping tails where I got in right around, you know, the break of 10 and it failed and so anyways, I was kind of having a hard time figuring out what was obvious, but when N A M I rolled over I felt that attention was shifting and on the top gainer on the running up scanner, we had D S Y squeezing up.

As it started squeezing up, I thought, okay, this is going to be the one and it's a break of V W A P curling pattern. Now, what's interesting is that if we actually look at N A M I, N A M I was below the volume weighted average price right here and then ripped through to a new high of day. And so as this started to roll over, I thought and this had worked well yesterday that attention would likely shift to the second leading gapper uh this had broken through V W A P.

And so, as it squeezed through right here, we went all the way up to a high of $7.80, and I was thinking we break that level, we're breaking eight. Now, we did have a little bit of an issue on the daily chart, which was the 200 exponential moving average. The 200 EMA was right around, you know, 760 right here. Uh but there if there was ever a day that it could break that level, it felt that today would would probably be that day.

So, in any event, um we got this big pop on it. And, you know, I really thought this thing was going to rip through the high of day, just the way NAMI had. And I stepped up to the plate. So, I end up getting in it, um right up right as it's squeezing it about $7.13, right up here. >> [snorts] >> Well, as you can see, it hit a high of 750. And then it flushes back down here, and I'm down about 30 cents a share on it. I could have just cut my loss.

It pops back up here to seven, it dips down, it comes back up here, and I end up getting out of it basically for break even on 7,000 shares. So, I'm in and out, and I make $203.38, which is nothing. I mean, whatever. That's like a break even trade. However, I took that setup in my big account. And in my big account, I got completely smoked as the stock flushed. Because look at what happened right after that little uh pop, it rejected and dropped from $7 a share to five bucks.

That's a $2 flush. Now, with small small share size, it's easy to jump in, jump out, you don't get as much slippage, you could just, you know, bail on a position. When you start trading with bigger share size, it's a lot harder to do that. And so, that was what ended up happening in the big account, which is really discouraging. We'll recap that separately. You know, the small account and the big account are always a little bit intertwined because there's only so many stocks each day that are obvious.

Um MB, this was one of the other obvious um stocks, but it was up a little bit too high. You know, we just had an issue today where I think it was uh not clear which one was really going to work, and it's there's a really good chance that one of these ends up continuing higher through the opening range, and I'm going to sit here at least in my big account in the red, and you know, I hit my max loss, and then it just is what it is.

Uh something's going to go higher, and I'm going to miss it. But, isn't that kind of always the case that you at some point have to decide you're going to walk away, whether it's because you have profit and you feel like you've done well enough, or maybe you gave back profit, or you're red. So, you're always kind of leaving money on the table, and generally, that's okay as long as you're, you know, keeping some profit in your pocket.

Today was a day where I didn't do as good of a job on that. So, although I am technically green, and I am green in the small account, that's sort of half the picture because in my main account, I'm red today. But, I'll I'll upload that recap a little bit later today. Now, what we can do is take a quick look at my metrics in the small account challenge. So, this is the small account challenge right here, and you can see the big green day there on day 30.

Today is day 31, that tiny little green day down there. It actually makes it look like my equity curve is going down, but it's not. It's sort of just the way the graph does it. Um I It is still profit, which is good. So, added one additional trade today. Total trades now showing 69 in Tradeview here. 76% accuracy, profit loss ratio a little better than one to one with that one bigger loss kind of drawing things down a bit.

But nonetheless, about $63,900 of profit versus the initial starting balance of 2000 is what has my account up a little over 65,000 minus a couple of the fees that come out of the account from Thinkorswim. There's no commissions, but they do have some securities and exchange fees that you have to pay. They're pretty small, but they do come out. So, that's where I finished the week here. Big picture, I'm green on the week in both my big account and my small account, which is great.

Although the big account did get beaten up today. But again, we'll have a recap for that coming soon. And for those of you guys that want to study up, you can check out our 2-week trial. And over the weekend, you could go through some of the classes that are part of that trial and get a better sense of the strategy that I'm trading every single day. I put it all on the table. You know, green days, red days, they happen.

I do the recaps. I walk you through it and I expect you'll probably learn a a good bit from my red day recap that's coming shortly. So, I'll put a link to that in the corner of the the description or the disclaimer here that I'm going to put up in just a moment. And I'll remind you guys as always, of course, that trading is risky. My results are not typical and there's no guarantee you'll find success whether you trade on your own or you learn from me.

So, please manage your risk and always practice in a simulator before putting real money on the line. With that, I'll see you guys back at it bright and early on Monday morning.