🚨 Investors Beware: The Stock Market is About to FLIP! transcript

Hey guys, welcome back to another video. We went from red to green today in the portfolio. Very interesting day, very choppy day, but I'm here for it. What we're talking about in today's video is the overall market condition and then also something we all need to get ready for. Something very important in the stock market is going on right now. So, if you guys do enjoy this video, all that I ask is you smash that like button and also subscribe to the channel.

Let's get right into it. So, first off, pretty flat day for the S&P right here. We see this one just moving up and down ever so slightly, you know, in the time of this screenshot, it was down .18%. So, pretty flat day for the S&P and we're sitting pretty in fear territory. We've been here for quite some time now. We see just a week ago we were at 35 in fear territory. A month ago we were at neutral and now we're sitting at 32 in fear territory.

Very close to extreme fear, something that could come very soon depending on what happens in the economy, but we are squarely close to there. And oil is getting crushed today as well. Let's go. It's great news. It's a good thing to see. Obviously, we're never going to be upset about that as an investor. We see this one's down 3.81%. Love to see it, you know, very happy. But, how did this affect our stocks? It didn't really help them out that much, but we did see a small update, but it's really not that much.

We see Iran war updates. Iran says it expects US response to ceasefire proposal already rejected by Trump today. So, he's rejecting that offer. He denies their sanction relief. Iran says it is ready for talks. Trump offers Iran war in a series in extreme endgame. Let them hit I I don't know. You know, you could read these news headlines all day, but we do see oil go down today. It does seem like something happened behind the scenes, something actually meaningful.

So, hopefully oil continues on the downtrend, but who knows. And then we have Cheesecake Factory right here. Cake is one of the only stocks in the portfolio that is absolutely just on a tear. I mean, this one's up over 100% in the last year. I mean, it's going insane. Year-to-date, Cheesecake Factory, who would have thought, the stock that nobody wanted to own. This one is now running in a big way. And I got out of this one at a great time.

ServiceNow, ticker symbol NOW, this one's down 10% in the past month. Am I still buying this heavily? No, no I'm not. I do think it still has room to run, but we did get you know, most of our ServiceNow at $90. This is one of the biggest winners for the portfolio this year, for sure. And then SoFi Technologies, this one's so cheap. Now, this one's down 40% year-to-date. If you can get this at a forward P of 19, this is when you want to be This is when you want to scoop up because growth rates on this one are insane, you know, 30 to 40% on their revenue growth, on their member growth, things of that nature.

You have a 19 forward P, are you serious right now? I mean, that might be the definition of undervalued. And obviously, there's some hurt priced into that future growth, but I don't think we're going to see them hurt as bad as people think. And I think SoFi has proven time and time again that their company can do great in a high rate environment. And they're going to continue to do it. There's nothing different with this.

Meta Platforms is still running. Ticker symbol META. Meta is one that is still running an insane amount. We called this one out, made 40% very quickly, very lucky timing the bottom right there, but we did make 40% in just a month on Meta stock. So, very happy with that one. Then also, [snorts] very nice appreciation on this call today. We see our Uber call is up 14%. So, hopefully we continue to ride that to the upside.

I think it's pretty clear and cut. I mean, I think this is going to be a good play for the portfolio, you know, time will tell, but I do really think this one's going to be a pretty easy, you know, double digit percent gain in a short amount of time. But, this is what we're here to talk about today, okay ladies and gentlemen? It is time to get ready. You see Nvidia, this one's up 29,000% all time. You look at AMD, this one's up 3,000% all time, okay?

These stocks have moved an insane amount. And when you look at these stocks, they're both chip stocks, they're both hardware stocks, and you can see that they took them a while to get going. But, when they got going, they got going. So, we know what's going to happen. We see Nvidia has authorized a record-setting $150 billion increase to its share buyback program. $150 billion. That is a pretty decent chunk of change.

This historic expansion raises the chip maker's total remaining buyback capacity to 235 billion, which management expects to execute through fiscal year 2028. So, Nvidia is starting to buy back some shares. They got a lot of extra money, not really many places to put it. CapEx is going to slow in 2028. That's what we see right here. It's a very slippery slope. You know, this is not 100% certain. This is actually made in 2025 and you know, early 2026.

So, there's no way to tell if this is actually going to show up to be true. But, we do see this right here. We see hyperscaler CapEx in the billions is expected to go up 37% this next year and then just 16% in 2028 when from 2024 to 2026 we had a year that was 54%, 73%, and 96% increases. And then just this next year it's going to be 37 then the year after that just 16. And news flash, but AMD and Nvidia are not used to 10% gains.

They're not used to 20% growth. These companies are doing triple-digit growth every single year. That's what these companies do. That's why their stock prices have moved in these type of ways in such a short amount of time. And this less lesser spending on CapEx is going to hurt these companies in a big way. And if you look into it, you see Nvidia 40%, 50% of their revenue comes from the Mag 7, these big companies that are spending a ton on CapEx.

And another graph with projections right here, we see this one goes all the way out to 2030. You see 2028 you have a little bit of growth, not the same as 2026 to 2027. But, 2028 to 2029 it's less. It's They think it's going to be completely flat. And this is AI data center infrastructure spending. That's what people think are going to happen. And then 2030 right here, you do see this. This They think there's going to be a slight rise, but you know, not even pretty much a 10%, maybe 15% gain.

Maybe 20%. Nowhere near what we're doing right now is 70%. So, these chip stocks are going to hurt, you know, they're going to need to try to find other ways to make money. Are they going to be able to do that? Who knows? But, when this happens, the Mag 7 will go out of debt and they will benefit. You look at Amazon stock right here. This one should be up much more than 6% year-to-date. P/E ratio of 19.8 on this puppy right here.

If you don't have debt, if Amazon is not in debt, their P/E ratio might be 30. They're maybe 30, you know, at least high 20s. So, this is a much more expensive stock if they mitigate the risk on the debt side of the business, which we're going to see in the long run. Amazon knows what they're doing, and they're not going to be in debt for the foreseeable future. Well, maybe for the foreseeable future, not for the long run, though.

But, you're already seeing the growth story slow with this one. So, this is a great example. Micron's forward P/E is 6.7. A forward P/E of 6 is PayPal levels. A company that has growth in the single digits. A company that is in fear of going under. Okay, not going under, but they're in fear of their growth completely stopping and turning into a decline. They're in fear of some their business going obsolete. That's the companies you price at a forward P/E of 5.

Okay, a forward P/E of 6. A forward P/E in the single digits. Micron is not one of those companies. They're a memory company that's up over 3,000% all time. And they have a forward P/E of 6. This is because a drop is priced in. We know the demand is not going to last forever. Companies cannot continue to spend this amount of money on these types of equipment. You know, they're setting it up for the long run. For example, Amazon is investing heavily.

This year, they're going to invest next year. After that, they don't need to invest as much. They set themselves up for the long run. They're getting that hardware that they need to spend a lot of money on at first. It's like when you buy a computer. When you buy a computer, the ROI is, you know, depending on what you're using that computer for pretty good because you just have to buy the computer. Maybe 10 years down the line, you got to get a new one, but that's not what these companies are looking to buy.

I mean, it's I think of it more so of buying like a blender or something. You're probably going to have the same blender for a long time. But, we look at this, it's probably going to start slowing. And earnings are coming out for this one tomorrow. We're also going to get the PCE, so that'll be very interesting to see. And that's because it's cyclical. It's dropping because it's cyclical. This is not a recent cycle, but this is a graph just showing you that this is the year-over-year growth rate of monthly memory sales and revenue. >> [snorts] >> It's cyclical.

It goes up and down all the time, and you have these multi-year runs. You see 2009 to 2011, memory had some great growth. It dropped until 2013. 2013 to 2015, great growth, then it dropped. And then you see 2016 all the way up till the end of 2018, great growth, and then a very quick sell-off. That is what we're looking at right now. We are nearing the sell-off of of memory because it it's cyclical. This is what happens.

And also, these chip stocks are cyclical, but my overall thoughts, you can't time the market exactly, but you can come close. You I mean, you could time the market exactly, you could get lucky. That's pretty much what we did with Meta, but that is a you know, that that doesn't come with skill, that doesn't come with experience. Maybe a little bit, but you're not going to get it perfect every time. So, you can come very close to time in the market perfect, but it's going to be very hard to perfectly time the market.

But, you still could There still could be more of a run or an alternative growth strategy. So, these chip stocks definitely could grow in a different way, you know, they could come out and say, "Oh, we're actually going to start selling to China." You know, maybe they come out and they say they're going to start selling to the European government, and they're providing, you know, a trillion dollars a year. I don't know.

That could happen. And there still could be more of a run in these chip stocks. This could not be the end. AMD could be a thousand dollars, it could be a thousand five hundred, it could be two thousand dollars stock. Who knows? Because we still have this next year, maybe 2028 doesn't slow down as much as we think. But, I think it's pretty inevitable that these big companies are not going to be able to continue spending in this way for a very long time.

But, long-term, this won't matter much. Don't stress it all that much. I mean, if you have AMD right now, the most it's going to do I mean, it's just absurd to think that AMD's going to 10x from here. Nvidia still has a 10x in them. I mean, that's just not how it works. And I know it feels promising, and it feels, you know, like, "Oh, I'm alive. Like, we're investing in this stock, and we think it's going to do this crazy thing." It's not.

We're not going to see that out of these stocks anymore. We totally could. It's possible, you know, maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think we're going to see that out of these stocks anymore. I think there's some much better opportunities in the market right now. There's some hated stocks that are going to be loved very soon. So, I'm in those ones. That's all I have for today's video, guys. If you did enjoy, be sure to smash that like button also subscribe to the channel.

I really appreciate the recent support. On top of that, also be sure to join my Patreon with the Discord link inside of it down below and also be sure to follow my Instagram link down below. I will catch you guys in the next video tomorrow. Peace.