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Benjamin Cowen · @benjaminjcowen
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take profits. And again, my strategy back then was I I'd bought Bitcoin and a lot of altcoins over here. As Bitcoin started to climb this thing, I started taking Bitcoin out and and DCA'ing Bitcoin for altcoins, then letting the altcoins run, and then taking profits
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Opening (first 30 seconds)
Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. And hopefully you've already gotten your ticket for the ITC conference. But if you have not, I would encourage you to do so before September 1st. Prices will go up then. uh you can
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What this transcript is
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Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com. And hopefully you've already gotten your ticket for the ITC conference. But if you have not, I would encourage you to do so before September 1st.
Prices will go up then. uh you can find a link to that in the description below. Now, in this video, we're going to sort of take in what's happened and and talk about it in the context of history. Now, one of the things that I've said probably about every week in the second half of the midterm year is that the correct approach in my opinion is to DCA Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year. And I put out a video a couple of months ago around the low called Bitcoin Dynamic DCA, how I navigate crypto.
I would encourage you to go watch that video. But in that video, I talk about how I this cycle am planning on buying Bitcoin under.3 risk starting in the second half of the midterm year. And if you go check in with that risk metric, you can see we actually did go below.3 risk in the second half of midterm year in early July, late June, early July. So fortunately that strategy of DCAing worked but admittedly right admittedly I would not have fully deployed everything I would theoretically want to for a full-on bull market that would hopefully last a number of years.
So, I want to talk about that and I I sort of just want to talk about the way I'm thinking of it and then strategies and kind of like looking at the past to see if what's happening now is confirmation that the low is in or if there's still a reason to to think otherwise. So, let's go ahead and jump in. Um, so far Bitcoin has spent very limited time below.3 risk, which is kind of my ideal zone. If you're not familiar with how I've operated the last several cycles and all this stuff is, you know, pub been published before on YouTube and you can go find it.
But in the 2018, 2019, 2020 cycle, I DCA Bitcoin below 0.5 risk. And then last cycle I chose to buy it below 0.4 risk. And then I said this cycle my plan is to buy it below.3 risk. Now you don't have to copy me, right? You could buy it at whatever levels you want to. I'm just being open and communicating the levels that I am interested in purchasing Bitcoin. And for me, for this cycle, it's below.3 risk starting in the second half of the midterm year.
So far, this is all we got, right? I mean, basically, starting on July 1st, we only had like three, four, about four, maybe five, five days below.3 risk. Five days. So, then the question is is, you know, what's going to happen from here? And and is what we're seeing indicative of a low? Have we seen it before? and and it is somewhat confusing admittedly. There are indicators that would support that would be more in support of the low being in and then others that would still leave it somewhat up in the air.
Now, the argument to make for a low being in despite the onchain indicators not all fully having reset is that we topped on apathy rather than euphoria. So then the question becomes, do we have to fully reset? Right? If we didn't go all the way to the highs, do we have to go all the way to the lows? It's a reasonable question to ask. At this point, we only have one example where Bitcoin topped on apathy, and that was 2019.
So, we're going to look a little bit at 2019 in this video. So, every time I make a video for the last several years comparing, you know, the the type of cycle that we were in back to the 2019 move, there's always been a lot of push back, right? It was because why are you comparing 2019 to, you know, to 2023? Why are you comparing it to 2024? Why are you comparing it to 2025? Why do you compare it? And and so before we get into the video, I have to at least spend a couple of minutes making the case for why we should compare it.
Okay, for why? And there's there's multiple reasons. Okay, number one is Bitcoin when it topped there was not a euphoric rally. There was not a euphoric rally, meaning there was no rotation after the euphoric rally into altcoins. One way to visualize there there not being a euphoric rally is look at the MVRVZ score in 2019 and in 2024 2025. You see how it didn't really go all the way up to where it would normally go.
Another example is the terminal price. If you look at the terminal price for instance, what you'll notice is that Bitcoin did not reach the terminal price during this last bull market. It also did not reach it in 2019. Okay? So you you can see what I'm talking about. But on all the other bull markets, it did reach the terminal price. It just didn't reach it in 2019. And also it did not reach it in 2025. The other comparison to make for 2025 compared to 2019 is that quantitative tightening ended in 2025, 2 months after Bitcoin topped.
So Bitcoin topped in October, QT ended in December. In 2019, Bitcoin topped in June. QT ended in August. So about two months. I think back in 2019, it was closer to like five or six weeks. But again, two calendar months apart is when that happened. And when Bitcoin did top in 2019, like 2025, there was no rotation into into higher risk assets. And also another comparison to make is that in 2019, the Fed cut three separate times.
And in 2025, the Fed cut three separate times. So there's plenty of comparisons that we can make to say, look, there is some reason to make the comparison. And when you zoom out on the weekly, when you zoom out on the weekly, what you'll notice is that this like what you see here in uh 2018 2019 and then the bounce up and then interest rates coming down after a major rate hiking cycle that back there is just a smaller version of of this cycle, right?
I mean, you can see QT and all that stuff's doing basically the same thing. Bitcoin is, you know, had this nice sell-off right after an apathetic top. It's more or less following the script, right? It's more or less following the same script. It's just a larger version of it. So, that's a reason to make the comparison to 2019. But there's other comparisons to make as well, right? This is a midterm year, so it makes sense to also compare to prior midterm years.
And in prior midterm years, did we have similar rallies like this one? And that's something that I have to ask myself. In 2022, was there a rally that was, you know, upwards of a 20% rally that happened in a week before the low was in? Uh, did that happen? Right? And it's hard to remember that kind of stuff all these years later. So, we can go take a look. All right. So, what we're going to do is we're going to start with the midterm year comparison and then we're going to look at the 2019 comparison.
Before I go too much further, you know, I even said this and if you guys watch these videos, you'll probably remember me saying it back in May. I remember telling you guys and and you know going into June I remember saying look I've received a lot of hate in the in the May rally as as in the January rally and if we go down what I'm going to say is that that's the that's the time to start accumulating right that's the accumulation window doesn't mean you can't go lower in Q4 and then I sort of snidly remarked but knowing myself I'm going to continue to beat that drum that it just well might because unfortunately I can't help myself, right?
I I feel like it's like I'm I'm fixated on on these things and I I can't help but but let you guys know, right? And and to say like you can go buy Bitcoin uh and hope that it doesn't drop in Q4, but that doesn't mean I will just conveniently ignore what I've seen happen every single midterm year. Okay? I can't I can't just pretend like it hasn't happened because it would make me feel better and and for people to like me.
I I will continue to at least communicate it. And if it doesn't play out, life will go on, right? Life will go on and and you know, I'll cross that bridge when I get to it. And I would probably pick up more Bitcoin at the time regardless of of whether it actually plays out or not. So, let's go through and and try to figure out, you know, has this kind of stuff happened before? I think the the first place to start would be 2018 because in 2018 the market structure has been remarkably similar.
And what's really different about this move compared to 2018 is that in 2018 we never really had a major rally above the 200 day moving average. It has happened in prior bare markets. But in 2018, by the time we passed through the 200 day moving average, the bare market was over, right? Like that was that was it. And and so the question is is is this here, right? Is that the same as this? And then now this move right here is akin to the move we had in the preh havinging year.
I I think it's worth some consideration, right? Like I can't sit here with a straight face and say that you can at least consider it. Um which again sort of affirms why the DCA approach is is the best approach. That way if it is it you're at least not just sitting on the sidelines for the entirety of the next bull market. Um but with that said with that said I I want to talk a little bit about before we get to that I want to talk a little bit about uh the the 2018 move.
Okay. So in 2018, if you ignore the moving averages, right? If we just ignore the moving averages and say let's not worry so much about them and let's just look at the chart and where the lows occurred and where the lower highs occurred. So in 2018, you'll see that we kept finding support around 6,000 around 6,000 just like this time it was been it's been around 60,000 very similar. Okay. Now, what what happened in 2018 is we had a lot of rallies, but we had three key rallies that I want that I want us to focus on here.
The first bounce bounced back up to 116,000. But the reason why that bounce was so large, then we didn't get a bounce like this like that this time is that 11 sorry 11,600. We didn't get that because we didn't have a euphoric top, right? We didn't rally all the way up to 200K to then allow for, you know, 11.6K or, you know, $116,000 Bitcoin be a dead cat bounce. Okay, it was more of an apathetic top. But what you can look at is these three lower highs.
You had one in the 90s, and if we zoom in, you can see what I'm talking about, right? So, we had one there at basically 10K. Okay. You had one at 8,500 and then you had one at 7,400. So what you'll notice is that throughout the bare market after this first bounce, right, but just looking at the nature of the next three, you had a top that occurred in the upper 9,000s, a top that occurred in the mid 8000s, and a top that occurred in the mid7,000s.
And I remember that very vividly because what I was doing back then was I was buying Bitcoin. I was actually in 2018 in the back half of 2018 that was when I was defending my uh my thesis my I was writing my dissertation and defending my dissertation. I defended my dissertation in September of 2018 and then I started my posttock you know shortly thereafter. Um, but I I despite all that, I still was watching the markets and what I did was I I bought Bitcoin and like an idiot, I bought a lot of altcoins and because I was I was so convinced, right?
I mean, every single rally just drew me back in, right? And I I fortunately I was able to to avoid sort of the first half of the midterm year, but the second half these rallies were just they were so convincing to me and I was like, "Yeah, like like 6K is probably the bottom." and and I hope it is and if it's not then so be it. And so I, you know, I bought Bitcoin. I bought a lot of altcoins and I remember thinking, you know, a year or two later, like while the Fed did bail bail me out with the altcoins that I bought, I remember thinking like I probably just been better off sticking with Bitcoin because if you if you look at Bitcoin dominance um from the levels, you know, when I was buying altcoins, Bitcoin dominance was at around, you know, around I mean it's basically around the same level that it's at now.
It was around like 60%. And then a couple of years later, you know, Bitcoin dominance was way higher, right? I mean, it was way higher. And I remember thinking back then like, I probably should have just stuck with Bitcoin. Now, I did get lucky with some of the altcoins. They did do, you know, some of them did well, but some of them did well after dropping another 70 or 80% and then they did well. Uh, and then the Fed bailed me out.
So, I I you know, I I like to think we're a product product of our experiences. Now listen, I mean there's always a chance that this bare market is like 2018 but without instead of breaking down at the end, maybe you break up. Okay, that's always a possibility. But the thing to kind of consider here is or at least one of the things to consider is that you had these three rallies, upper 9,000s, mid 8,000s, mid7,000s. And then if you go look at at this bare market, you can see there's also three similar rallies, right?
One that went all the way up to near 100k, right? Upper 90s. The next one that took us to like the lower to mid 80s, and then the one that we're currently in, which is in the mid70s. And so if I were not looking at the 200 day moving average, if I were not looking at the bare market resistance band, I would simply look at something like this and say, well, as much as I know everyone wants the low to be in, there's always a chance that it's not, right?
There's there's always a chance that it's not because to say that it couldn't go lower would be to basically be living through 2018 and saying the same thing. And and we know that it did go lower a few months later. And if it feels like we're too far out in the year for that to play out, one of the things to consider is that in 2018, the rally that took us up to the mid7000s, that didn't even top until early September, right?
I mean, we're not even in September yet. And that did not top until early September. And then we came back down to 6,000. we went sideways and then we finally dropped to the market cycle bottom by the end of the year. So that's what I mean when I say there's there's mixed signals because on one hand I can look at the 200 day moving average and say well look I mean you know normally when we blast through the 200 day moving average like in 2019 and in 2023 the bare market was behind us but it's also true that when we did that in those years those were preh having years that that happened not midterm years and so then the question becomes well have we ever rallied through the 200 day moving average and the bare market continued and actually I got into uh I was in a Twitter space a few months ago and there were these guys talking about well if Bitcoin goes above the 200 day moving average at that point it never goes below it again in bare markets and back then I pointed out I was like look there's always a chance that we go above the 200 day and we go right back below it and there is some precedent for it right it happened in 2014 and it also happened in 2019 and I know you're saying well why the hell are you bringing up 2019 2019.
We covered that at the very beginning of the video. So, if you skipped ahead, go watch the reason why to compare to 2019. And then we're going to look at 2019 as well. Okay. So, in 2014, honestly, this is not going to be my favorite comparison because when the rally above the 200 day moving average occurred, it occurred a little earlier in the year and we did not extend above it as much as we're extending above it now.
So, I'm not a huge fan of this comparison. back then we got above the 200 day in May and and we got back above it in July and then we were still above it a little bit above it in in mid August but frankly this doesn't really look like the current rally to me I mean it only barely got above the 200 day moving average now what's interesting is it is objectively true that in 2014 we were above the 200 day moving average in mid August and it's also true that then Bitcoin still dropped down to below by October okay So, we do know that, but it doesn't look like the same thing to me because in that case, Bitcoin had been trending down for a while, whereas we're still in the, you know, sort of the uh the up move.
Like, we don't know how high this is going to go before it retraces some. We don't know. I mean, maybe we're there now. Maybe it happens tomorrow uh with the Jackson Hole speech by, you know, by Kevin Walsh. Maybe it happens in a week. I I don't know. None of us know. we're just kind of sitting here wondering how high this is going to go before, you know, before it it takes a breather. Um, so I I wouldn't put a lot of faith here in the 2014 comparison because it doesn't really seem like the best comparison to me.
Um, because it happened much earlier in the midterm year, the the the rally to the 200 day to above it and it's already we're already almost in September. So, it doesn't feel like the the most reasonable comparison. And so the only other example that you have where you got above the 200 day moving average in such a short period of time happens to be October of 2019. And there there's a couple of interesting things surrounding it.
And I I just want to show you this move. Okay? I want to show you this move because we haven't had a move like this in this bare market yet. We haven't. um in that move and I'll show you why we're looking at that move from a news standpoint as well rather than just a price standpoint. So in that move, if we just look at the first green candle here, Bitcoin rallied 40% in 2 days and it still somehow managed to go to a new low 31 days later.
And then it set the floor 54 days later before the rally that led us out of that bare market. And then of course the pandemic hit and it reset everything. But let's suppose the pandemic didn't happen. Perhaps that would have been it and we would have been well on our way to new highs already. Like we can't know. But it took about 54 days from the high and you'll see that Bitcoin rallied well above the 200 day moving average.
Okay. In fact, it rallied about 18% above the 200 day and then it retraced back to You see that? Now, what's similar between October of 2019? I know that the the comments are going to be absolutely brutal. You know, they're going to drag my name through the mud on Twitter for even talking about this, but why should today be any different? What's interesting about October of 2019 and August of 2026? Well, what's interesting is that this is this was an apathetic top.
Okay, it was an apathetic top. No rotation to altcoins. QT had just ended and it's it was the first rally above the 200 day moving average. Now, if you're having a hard time sort of buying into this idea, the thing to consider is if the uptrend can take longer than the 2019 uptrend, why can't the downtrend take a little bit longer than the 2019 downtrend? And so if you think about it through that lens, this is the first rally above the 200 day moving average after falling below it after an apathetic top.
And again, Bitcoin rallied about 17 to 18% above the 200 day moving average. Let's go see where we are now. And then we're going to get into your favorite part of this video, which will be the news that accompanied both rallies. Currently about 10% above it. Now, obviously, one of the big pieces, one of the big news stories that happened was Treasury Secretary Bessant and and their willingness to try to control the long end of the yield curve.
Okay, so that's obviously one thing, but another thing that happened is that look at this article on CNBC. Bitcoin surges 12% in two days as Trump crypto execs lead last ditch effort for the Clarity Act. So, President Trump just came out and they were talking up crypto, right? Obviously, because the midterms are coming up, right? I mean, let's not be let's let's be real. Uh, but that was the news story that's accompanying a lot of this is that there's this pro- crypto, you know, sort of stance that's taking place and that is what's being attributed to a lot of this rally.
Now, also you could attribute other things as well. You could attribute the the recent drop by the dollar. You could attribute, you know, what what um they're trying to do with the long end of the yield curve. I mean, even now the long end doesn't really seem to be responding that much to it. I mean, the 10-year yield still at 4.7%. The 30-year yield didn't even drop that much. I mean, maybe it will, but it hasn't done that yet.
And so, then the question becomes, well, what what could we say? Is there a similar article in October of 2019? Well, it's a great question and I'm glad you asked it because in October of 2019, I remember it distinctly, the 40% rally from the low that occurred over just a few days occurred on this headline. Bitcoin, and this is a CNBC article, same, you know, same website. Bitcoin had a wild weekend briefly topping 10,000 um after the Chinese president uh said that they should seize the opportunity offered by blockchain.
China's central bank, the people's bank of China had been working on its own digital currency. So basically in 2019 you had China talking up Bitcoin and then Bitcoin rallied like 40%. And look at the date, right? Look at the date. This was October 28th, 2019. And if you look here, October 28th, that's shortly after we had this massive rally, right? And so that was the the main news story that was attributed to it. And when Bitcoin had that rally, it it basically r you see where it broke down from right here.
Bitcoin rallied and it kind of swept above that high. So then the question is is like if we're going to repeat that, that's something to be mindful of, especially given that it's the midterm year because you can see that we just sort of broke down here and now we've just sort of swept above that high. Okay, so that is the consideration to make in terms of the 2019 move. Now, if you were to take that 2019 move and say, how long from that high did it take for the low to occur, excluding the pandemic, right?
We're not here to speculate on pandemic stuff. It took 53 days. Now, I can't tell you when this local top's going to occur. I can't. But let's just suppose it's today. Probably not, right? I mean, I have no idea. I can assure you I'm the last person to ask. Um, but 53 days from August 21st would coincidentally be midocctober. So, it's just u it's just to try to keep people seeing both sides of the story here. Okay. Uh, and you know, maybe you would say it's like it's a form of coping, but I mean, I'm not Look, guys, I don't honestly care so much.
I mean, I I've I've bought a little bit of Bitcoin. Not enough, right? I mean, arguably not enough for what I would want for the next bull market. I'm not going to like lie to you. Uh I'd like to buy some more before the next bull market, but you know, this is this is the sort of the the thing to to consider is that like what if what if this is a a sort of a a similar type of of move here where you're I mean, spread out, I guess, over a longer period of time, right?
But what if it's a sort of a similar type of move and you just simply get one final sell-off into Q4, the midterm year, bare market, four-year cycle completes, and the low that ended up occurring in um you know, in November, December of 2019 just ends up being maybe the final low over here. Again, is it a stretch? Yeah. But if you watch the whole video, I think you could at least see how I made that comparison. Now again, if you're just looking at the midterm years, breaking above the 200 day moving average in the way that we're breaking above it now historically is a really bullish thing.
So, I'm not here to tell you that it it can't be a bullish thing. What I'm here to say is that despite the type of move that we've seen, if you were to ignore the moving averages and just look at the type of move we had in 2019 and the lower high structure in 2018 where we went into the 9,000s and then the 8,000s and the 7,000s and then this time it's been the 90,000s, the 80,000s and now the 70,000s, right? To to see it like that sort of changes the perspective a bit.
I mean, you can look at the chart and be like, "All right, well, maybe the low's in." But there is at least some evidence to consider, hey, it's not like this is so clear-cut, right? It's not like it's such a clear-cut thing. Again, this is all an academic exercise. It's much simpler. Just buy Bitcoin every week and and go live your life rather than concern yourself with this too much. But I keep making the videos. You guys keep tuning in.
So, I will I will be here, right? I I'll still be here to provide this opinion uh whether people like it or not. But that's something to see. And I mean sometime look you have to go up to go up but sometimes you got to go up to go down as silly as that sounds. And then the the other question is is well did this happen last cycle at all? Right? I mean was there a time ignoring the moving averages because again if you include the moving averages the answer is no.
Right? The answer is no. When when we were breaking out like this the low was in ignoring the moving averages. Was there ever a time where Bitcoin rallied this amount in such a short period of time and the low was not in? And again, this rally from this green candle here, we just rallied 20% over 4 days. Did that happen in 2022 before the low was in? Let's go take a look. You can see right here in early September, we had a sizable rally.
How big was it from the low to the high? 23% over 6 days. So, it has happened. I bet most of you don't even remember that rally from 2022. Honestly, I don't really remember that rally from 2022. And I was making videos every day, but I still can't tell you exactly what I was feeling during that rally. I remember saying that I think we were going to go lower in Q4 and I remember people making videos mocking me for it.
Uh and we had this huge rally and and then it came right back down. And what's interesting is if you take the start of that rally to the actual low that was 76 day or was it 75 75 days, right? So that'd be a bit further out. But to the first capitulation low, it was just 2 months, 63 days, right? About about 63 days from the start of that rally to essentially the low of the bare market. We just swept the low a couple of weeks later. 63 days.
Now 63 days from the start of this rally puts you in mid-occtober, right? Midocctober. Now, if you were to take a bar pattern onto this chart and just kind of like overlay it like that and say, "All right, well, we saw this big pop by Bitcoin." Let's just try to match it up exactly. See this big pop? and you you sort of bring it to the current cycle here. You can see that the type of rally that it was, right? Like it was just this massive rally up and then it came right back down.
What I what I think happens when you get those types of rallies is you got you have a lot of people that are all you have a lot of people that are that are looking at it saying all right things seem bearish probably going to get a low in Q4 right everyone was right if you anyone in anyone in 2018 who thought we were going to get a low in Q4 they were right anyone in 2020 2022 who thought we were going to get low in Q4 they were right I don't talk about shorting the market.
I don't ever short the market. I just don't. I mean, think about it. How many people on the wealthiest people in the world, they're they're not people that they're not short sellers. They're people that are are bullish on their businesses, right? They're not out there shorting businesses. Those are the people that are getting the wealthiest. I think it's insane to short this stuff. And this is why I don't talk about it.
But imagine you have a lot of people thinking that sometimes in order to go down, you have to go up because the market will go up. It'll liquidate all the shorts, get people to FOMO in and then it goes down. So the counterpoint is that in order to go up, you also have to go up. It's just hard to know, you know, how does it reconcile after going up? you go up to go down or you just starting to go up and then you leave people kind of waiting forever that are thinking it's it has to go to a new low.
But it's just to show you that even in 2022, you know, just a month or two before the final drop, we had a similar type of rally where we rallied over 20% in just a few days and and then we gave it all back very quickly. So, the thing is, you know, as much as I'd like to just sit here uh for the next several months and and try to find every reason and whatnot to to be concerned, you guys see the reasons, right? I mean, you see the reasons and if by the end of the year it it nothing like that happens, life goes on and I will I will flip bullish and I won't care, right?
I mean, I've already got a little bit of Bitcoin from when we went below it in July, when we went below.3 risk in July, in early July. And, you know, I I probably would just simply be forced to add more if we don't get that that drop in Q4 because I I don't really feel like I I have what I would want for the next bull market. I have some that kind of helps control the emotions in the rally, but I can I it's like it's it reminds me of, you know, these other rallies where in the moment it just feels like there's no way you could ever go lower, you know, like in 2018, you know, it just it feels like there's just no way you can go lower.
And then somehow you fast forward to Q4 of every midterm year and somehow it always ended up happening. Who knows how it happened, but it always ended up happening. Um, and and in in a lot of these cases, before you got the final drop, you had to go up first. You had to go up. You had to liquidate people and then you went down. So that that would be the concern I think to sort of express about definitively saying that the low has to be in.
And you know there's obviously the onchain indicators and there's like the MVRVZ score and you know the terminal or the the balance price and the realized price. There's all these things that haven't fully reset. Obviously you can maybe try to make the case that they don't have to reset because we didn't have a euphoria phase. The counterpoint is that in 2019 2020 they still fully reset. Yes it was due to the pandemic but that's the only example we have right. the only example we have.
And who's to say they wouldn't have reset without the pandemic? Who's to say something else wouldn't have happened that would have caused a a a similar outcome. So that is, you know, the the dubious speculation I have for you today. I, you know, I hope that these videos this year have been useful. I know right now it it might feel like, you know, I know there's certainly a lot of hate directed directed my way, and I'm I'm kind of used to that honestly at this point.
Uh but just know that we have seen these rallies in the past and there are times where it wasn't over yet. When looking at moving averages, it was okay. like when looking at uh things like the 200 day moving average, it was um but in 2019, which we've made the case for a comparison, you know, you can see that we we had this big spike up only to come right back down. So, I think what I would be looking for in order to like try to pivot one way or the other is at some point, you know, Bitcoin will retrace something, right?
And you can see that when it retraced in 2019, it was unable to hold the 200 day as support. It tried to hold it for a couple of weeks, but it was unable to in 2023. In 2023, we did hold the 200 day as support. You see that we can we clearly held it as support. Um, so that's that's arguably what I would be sort of looking at here is whenever you do get the retrace, are we able to stay above the 200 day moving average over the next couple of weeks?
In one week, anything can happen, right? I mean, we saw that in 2019. We saw it in 2022. Bitcoin rallying up 20% basically in a single in three or four days. We've seen that before. What's important is what happens over the next say two weeks. And if Bitcoin is still holding above the 200 day moving average in say a couple more weeks, then I would argue at that point the odds really start to go up that that the low would be in.
But at this point, it's just too early to know. Like it's too early to know for sure given the context of what we've seen previously. But those are my thoughts. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe, give the video a thumbs up. Again, check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium. And if you want to go to the conference, uh again, check it out. Ticket prices are going to go up on September 1st and the conference will be November 20th through the 22nd.
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