Visa Bulletin Prediction for October November December 2026 transcript

Hello friends, Mandar here. I'm back with another video. Today we'll talk about some speculation regarding October, November and December visa bulletin specifically for EB1, EB2 and EB3 India category. The India category is important because that is the most backlog country among all the countries. So that that's what I will be focusing on. Now this is just a speculation. I'll talk about it. So watch what are my assumptions and what is my analysis and we'll just do an educated guess on what could be coming in the next couple of months.

So watch this video until the end and let's get started. If you are here for the first time, welcome. My name is Mandar and I make immigration and lifestyle related videos for US and Canada. I'm not an immigration lawyer. So, anything that I say on this video or on my channel is for information purpose only. And for your specific immigration needs before you take any action, you should hire a competent immigration lawyer.

Now, check out the links in the description because those are affiliate links and you might find something interesting. And while doing so, you will also help the channel. And while you're down there, don't forget to hit the like button and also put a meaningful comment that will give you your questions answered or any question for me to be considered in my next video. Now with that said, let's jump into the topic. Now in the last couple of months, I have been telling that I need more information from USCS to be able to predict what is going to be the spillover from family based category to the employment based category at the end of this fiscal year. basically after the 30th of September into 1st of October.

Now there is only limited data that I can go with but and I had made some prediction on how many spillover visa numbers could be expected out of current FB category into the family into the employment based category in the in the new year and that is also dependent on the 75 country ban and how much UI utilization is there among those countries. So taking that into account and whatever inventory data that we have from USCIS as of April 2026 that's what we are going to look at.

Now before going forward I want to tell you that this is only speculative. This is only based on my analysis making a lot of assumptions and only for information purpose. So I wouldn't recommend making any live decisions based on this information. Just take it with a grain of salt as some information that we can just speculate based on some data that we have making a lots of assumptions. So hope that is clear. Now what are the basics that I have taken into account?

Now what I have speculated it based on the 75 country ban that is still into into effect that can be taken into account for the spillover towards the end of the year. Now that number was 59,000. Now 59,000 visas may have been unused from the consulates from those 75 countries but those go back into the pool throughout the year to be used by the rest of the countries. So you cannot take that 59,000 and just apply towards the spillover in this year.

What else can we take into account? Now the other things that we have from USCIS is the quarterly data for 485. We also have 485 performance data from USCIS. We have EB inventory data as of April 2026 and we also have appropriations requirements but as of May. So basically how many petitions that have come in and how many gets approved those sort of things. So we have these four tables and we have some more data that is coming from the department of state.

So these are the sources and we also know how many visas are processed per month or per quarter to make a speculative guess for the last 6 months of the year because we only have the data until March of 2026. We don't have any data going forward. So we can only speculate or extrapolate those numbers based on previous few years and based on where we are at this point of the year. So hope those assumptions make sense to you.

Now first of all let's say that we have some of those numbers that are coming from 75 countries and let's speculate that there is going to be roughly about 50,000 visa numbers that are spilled over. Now this number could be 20% up or down. So let's say 40,000 to 60,000 anywhere in between that number is going to be spilled over from EB c from FB category to EB category in the fiscal year 2027 which starts from 1st of October.

So that is the first assumption. So spillover of approximately 50,000 visa numbers. Now I'm also doing the starting point as August that because that is the latest visa that we have where we have uh EB1 category for final action date as October 15th of 2022 and dates of filing as December 1st of 2023. EB2 is unavailable right now for filing a final action chart because they have exhausted all the numbers and filing chart is January of 2015 and EB3 is for final action chart is January 1st of 20 2014 and final a and dates of filing chart is also January 15th of 2015.

So that is the given that we have. Now they have also said that the EB2 category can become unavailable for the entire uh for all the rest of the world as well. But that given that let's keep going forward. What are the other assumptions? Now if you look at the inventory data from April 2026 that USC has had posted back in June you can roughly calculate that total pending India inventory for 485 is roughly around 20,000 for EB1.

For EB2 it's about 25,000 and EB3 it's about 16,000. So that is a rough estimate of all the pending inventory. Pending inventory in the sense people who are still waiting for their green card pending 485. When you have a final action date and when you have a filing date usually when a filing date is set the final action takes almost 9 to 12 months to get to that filing date. So it takes that much amount of time. So what is the difference of the kota between this?

If you calculate EB1 roughly has about 11,500 between 15th of October 2022 to December 1st of 2023, EB1 roughly has about 11,500 visa numbers pending between that range. So it it will take another 11,500 visa numbers to get to the filing date charge date which is 1st of December 2023. So similarly for EB2 it's roughly around 9,000 and for EB3 I I it is half of that which is about 6,000 to 7,000. So that is my rough calculation.

Now in that allocation table that USCS had published there is also some D numbers which which mean that they have been allocated a visa number but that is not very clear because of because the date is also retrogress. So when they posted this after that the date had retrogress. So we cannot definitely definitively say that those numbers have the visa numbers allocated to them. So that is kind of a speculative part of it.

Now if you look at the quarterly data file that they have published, EB1 has approximately about 2,775 pending cases between November and December 2022 followed by about 2743 during January to March of 2023. So that mean a number of pending cases are there for EB1 and EB1 demand is highly unspeculative. You cannot predict how many EB1 numbers are pending because people keep upgrading. Now there are a lot of people from EB2 and EB3 that are upgrading and nobody knows how what is that number not even USCs they haven't published that number and we cannot even speculate.

So EB EB1 is the lowest confidence data that we have at this point of time at least from my perspective. EB2 is somewhat predictable and EB3 is consistent in my opinion. EB3 has not been progressed uh rapidly or not has been retrogressed. So it has steadily progressed for a while. So I have more confidence in the EB3 data, medium confidence in the EB2 data and very low confidence in the EB1 data or the numbers that we have.

So that is the background that I am giving you. So roughly around 50,000 spillovers. So let's say about 140,000 visa numbers for the new year and 50,000 extra green card spillovers. So 190,000 visas will be available for fiscal year that starts from 1st of October 2026. So given that information, here's what I'm going to predict. Now these are the two tables that I have put together based on my analysis from all the data that I just explained and all the assumptions that I just explained.

So here is the the first table represents the optimistic scenario. optimistic in the sense that I want to predict that there are a lot of people who have already gotten the green cards in the numbers that have been published by USCIS. So those many number of people are have already got their green card. So the date should progress faster. So that's why it's a optimistic scenario and then the second one is the realistic scenario which is pure math pure based on the speculation based on the numbers that we have and putting the assumptions together.

So these are the two tables. So let's start with EB1. So if you look at that I have the categories EB1, EB2 and EB3. I talk about both the charts final action and filing on on the left hand side. As you can see I start with the uh uh August actual that we already have and then predict October, November and December. I just entirely skipped September for for whatever reason. September will come and we'll look at that.

But really what we want to see in October because that's where the new set of visa numbers and the spillovers are going to be accounted for. So for optimistic scenario for EB1 final action chart August stands at October 15, 2022. What I'm predicting for October visa is April 1st of 2023 is going to be the progression for final action dates. November is going to stay at April 1st and December may go to 1st of May. So one month of progression for December.

So that's what my prediction is. Now filing dates for um August is 1st of December 2023. My prediction is October forecast is going to be 1st of April 2024. So it will move forward 5 months. November will stay at April 1st. There will be no change in the filing date chart for November and same for December. So that is what my prediction is for in the optimistic scenario for EB1. for EB2 final action currently in August it's unavailable in October it will go to 15th of July 2014 November 15th of July and December 1st of August 2014 is my prediction okay filing dates for EB2 India currently at in August it is at 15th of January 2015 in October I'm seeing it will go to January it will stay at January 15th November it will go to June June of 2015 and uh December it will stay at June of 2015.

So it will stay the same in October but then they will progress in November and keep it same in December. Now EB3 optimistic scenario here's what I'm my prediction is for August as you know it stands at January of 2020 2014. For October I'm seeing it will go to July 15th of 2014. For November, it will stay at July 15th of 2014. And for December, it will go to September 30th of 2014. And filing date for EB3 is at January 15th of 2015.

Jan, it will stay at January 15, but it can go to June of 2015 in November and will stay at June of 2015 in December. That is my prediction. Now realistic scenario is little bit sad or a little bit slower if the way whichever way you put it. Now realistic scenario is where I'm not being so optimistic. I'm going purely by the numbers and purely by the assumptions and not taking not making an assumption that many people have already got their green cards in between.

So I'm just going purely by the numbers. So how how does it look in realistic scenario? EB1 final action in August it's 15th of October 2022. Now in October visa bulletin it will go to April 2023. November it will stay at April 2023 and December forecast uh it will go to May of 1st. Now where is the change in the realistic scenario is in the filing filing chart. In in October we sublit in it will remain at December and in November and also in December we sublit in it will remain at December 1st of 20 2014.

It will not change. So EB1 filing date will remain same at December 1st 2020 uh3 is uh the realistic scenario. For EB2 final for realistic scenario currently it's unavailable but it will go to 15th of July 2014. It will stay in at 15th of July in November but it will go to 1st of August in 20 2014 in December v sublletin. For filing chart for EB2 it will it is at January 15. It will stay at January 15th in October and in November but there is a chance that it will move forward in December.

For EB3 final action chart it will uh it will go to July of 2015 uh July July 15th of 2014. In October we sublit in November it will stay at July and December it will stay at July. For filing chart it will go it will stay at January 15, 2015. In October we sublain but it will move forward in November and December to June 15th of 2015. So I have high confidence in these dates. You can take you can pause the screen and look at these dates.

But I have high confidence in the EB3 moving forward. I have medium confidence in the EB2 and I have very low confidence in the EB1 forward path. Take this information with a grain of salt. This is based on the speculation. This is based on the numbers that USCI has published last month as of March 2020 2026 and it is based on the speculative visa spillover numbers which is approximately 50,000 visa numbers from family based category to employment based category.

So this is my prediction. Put down in the comment section below whether you agree with this analysis or whether you don't agree with this analysis and what is your argument or counter argument to these dates moving forward. Again, this is speculative. Take it with a grain of salt. Don't make any financial or life decisions based on these based on this data. Eventually, we will get to know within 2 months what is the October visa and we'll go from there.

So, for now, this is all I wanted to say. If there is an update to this speculation, I will make another video on it. But as of now, this is what I'm seeing based on the analysis that I have did. I'm also doing my master class on EB1A. So check out that link in the description as well, the upcoming master class. I haven't been doing those master class for a couple of months now, but with the demand, I'm bringing it back.

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