Futures Market Review \ Lecture On Shadows Validating PD Arrays transcript

Hey folks, we're going to do a short here at the daily suspension block octant levels and we're going to take the sell side here. Build this position up a little bit potentially forming an inversion fair and lower that stop a little bit. Now we've gone just above all the single candles and to the left. So we're just trying to reduce that risk a little bit more. All right. So now I don't want to see that inversion fair value gap fail.

I want to see it break through it rather aggressively. No more bodies in the upper half here. Okay. Notice how it used the lower octant level right to the level. Nice. Nice displacement. So, we're going to remove that risk now. and the low of that inversion fair value gap that I didn't want the bodies to show up in. Uh, it never got traded to. So, that's indic indicative of a very weak market. All right. And here's another inversion fair value gap.

You can see it just operated off of that. And now the one we're inside of here, going to look to take some profits below that low here. But we'll scale some of these off. I know you guys don't like when I do this because you want to be able to show it like you did a trade, right? All right. So again, no market replay, right? So now we are below that wicks consequent encouragement. So I'm going to do a limit order just below that sellside liquidity pool.

All right. So, I want to see it close below there now. Right. And I'm going to log all of these screenshots so that way you can see it was one execution, not one of 17. All right. So I want to see the body stay below that consequent encouragement level of that wick I've measured here. So far the candlestick bodies are respecting that. So I want to see heaviness here. Create a lower low on the day. And this is all part of the macro.

So you can see where my short started up in there between the 950 and 1010 macro. Now ideally I don't want to see the body above that consequent encroachment level. That's the whole point of plotting that. You see how it did that. All right. So want to see some heaviness come in here. That means really solid movement lower in price action, right? Taking a partial, another partial there. All right. Small little fair value gap.

Screenshot that. Add this here. So you can see I'm I'm managing only one folks. I understand that there's a lot of people out there like to make up myths and yarns if you will. All right. So I'm going to lower that stop down and I want to see it really get below that 42 and a quarter level. Again, screenshotting everything as I go. and another partial there. And I I don't think yeah, I'm going to keep keep it real easy and go right to that new low.

So, if it takes out that intraday low, I'll be content with that and move to the sidelines. And uh that'll be enough for today. And here it is. Beautiful, isn't it? So, we're going to look at the uh NASDAQ September contract. Hope you're doing well. Appreciate your patience today. My wife and youngest son, my niece, flew out to California, so I had to take them out there. And admittedly, I was a little anxious while they were in the air.

So, I want to make sure they got there. It would have been a distraction. [laughter] I would have never been able to sit down and and do the video. So, we're looking at the daily chart here. And on Monday here, I ended up shorting the Judith swing in that move during the regular trading hours and then it sent it higher. Now, before I get into that, I talked about this wick Let's make this a little bit beefier here so you can see.

All right. So, I mentioned how this consequent encroachment level right there, it would need a close below that to target that sell side. Okay? And I told you to watch how it books and it did not get below the consequent encroachment of that. I'm going to get to it actually. So on Monday when price was unwilling to go lower at the open, we broke higher, took out the previous day's high, and then yesterday we took out last Thursday's high.

We're part of a larger consolidation still and I'm just not I'm just not in sync right now with where I think it's going to go longer term. So I'm playing it intraday and I just think that you if if you're convictions are stronger and you think it's going to go higher or lower relative to the daily chart, you know, by all means you trust your own analysis. But for me, I I'd rather just stick with intraday and is a modest bullish bias.

Admittedly, there's it's it's small, but they left these clean highs up here. They left this high up here. We rallied up yesterday. We gave up most of that range today. And it'll be interesting to see, you know, how we open at six o'clock tonight and trade into uh London. So, let's add this annotations here. We'll go into Monday's opening range and the run up into the macro. All right. So, here is the business. So, we had a little bit of a smooth edge here at 9:30.

We ran up into that, fell off and I shorted some of that and then I went into this area here. So at 9:30 we opened traded lower and then started to run up here came back down into this inversion which is a bullish fair value got first used it here traded down through it didn't offer any kind of premium sensitivity traded above it the body's respecting it even though we wick through it look at the body standing up half the market rallied up, took out that high relative equal highs over here and then created this little bit of a a range.

Now, this whole business in orange, you know, that's the daily suspension block at this showed over the last couple days in NQ. These are the octant lower quadrant. another octant. And when price traded right to that and we took out these smooth highs here during this is the key point here during the macro time. Smooth edges in here. Candlesticks. high this candle here by set down sell side efficiency and failed. So as it hit this in here I was trying to be short right at as it hit the level trying to time it as the market would tick to it.

I wasn't exactly able to do that but I got real close to it. Then one more candle. these types of things here. When the next candle goes just a little bit higher than the candle I entered on, those are things that I grade my execution on. Now, I'm not beating myself up, but I like to have the the high candle if I'm shorting. The fact that we had a lower body is one of those things I cheerlead myself and say, "Well, the bodies didn't go any higher than the my entry candle." So it went one more time wicking through it and then we had nice displacement lower as you saw in the recording.

So the gap here we we opened trade up into that couldn't even get to halfway point consequent encouragement broke lower and as we had each new sellside liquidity pool level um I was optimistic but not so willing to hold on to the entire run below the 29,363 quarter. So I used the sell side here and then once we created a low I wanted to get that one more stab lower and when it did I was content with that. So I didn't get the entire run of the morning but I did get the session high going into the first hours trading.

So that's right here. So 10:30. So shorting at the high of the session at the lower quadrant of the daily suspension block leaving a little bit on the table and then we had a small little gap in here right there into that and that rally the macro 950 50 10. So all in here use the lower quadrant of the daily suspension block. Premium sensitivity came in at a time of the day. It should create that false breakout. Bull flag lovers are getting smoked here.

Then price goes lower and takes out the sell side there. And then uh this level here I wanted to see the close below that and we got it finally on this candlestick and then I mentioned how these bodies I want to see them stay below consequent corrosion of that wick because that's premium sensitivity you have to allow those wicks to do that and I know some of you are going to question well how do you know when it's doing that you just have to trust that your analysis is on point and use a stop loss like you seen me execute with it is what it is you're not going to know all all things all times it it's a matter of experience, a matter of using the tools and the logic that I'm sharing with you and then the market, you know, accelerates and goes lower.

Um, moving into let's just go into Tuesday. Same bit of business. Okay, we had a little bit of a fair gap in here. trade down to that right before 9:30 open and it just let it out of the bag started running and then we had in my opinion we had first presented fair bag right here at 9:35 now you can look at this and say this is the first one and that would be okay there's nothing wrong with that but I would be aware of it being there but I like this one because look how much more prominent that that run is so it's reaching up into the consequent portion of a fair value gap.

[snorts] And you can see how we took out relative equal highs over here. relative equal highs and a single high with that run created down into the high of the daily suspension block which that's why this color looks a little bit different because this area here the midpoint this pink area I'll show you what that is in a moment and then we have the high of the daily suspension block right there okay so it came down hit That beautiful rallied up and closed into the high of the let me show you.

See that candlesticks low, that candlestick's high. That's the daily fair value got. That's bearish. So when it was trading up into that, that's what it was hitting. This suspension block is the high of that shaded area in orange when we got lower time frames. Because this candlesticks high here is lower than this candlesticks body. The fact that that's lower here, we have this overlapping. So there's a little bit of a shading uh color difference between the pink and the orange.

That's why it's creating that little bit of a hue and difference. So again, we'll drop down into this and then Tuesday 30th. There you go. We had that happening right there. So that's the high of the suspension block on the daily chart. And the macro begins here. So right in here, grade that wick there. And you can see how the body's not even getting an opportunity to stay at consequent encroachment or in the lower half right here.

You see that we wick down below it a little bit and then rip higher. So that right there is a really nice opportunity. Notice that it's using the order block change in state delivery. this candlestick at 9:49 a.m. Look at the opening price 26 even. That's changing the state of delivery. It trades above that opening price right there. Okay. Once it trades above, it does not need to close above it. Pre uh the premise is we're running to a premium from a discount.

We hit a higher time frame PDA. We opened traded down. We're showing willing to go higher. As soon as we breach this here, that validates as an order block change in the state of delivery 26, I'm sorry, 30,226 is that price. And then look at the price here on this the low 30,2 uh 224 12. So it's utilizing the change in the state of delivery right there. That's not a demand zone. [laughter] It's a very specific price and it hits it and runs aggressively clearing this high and the buy side here and rips all the way up into the high of that daily bearish bag I just showed you.

It's shaded in pink. And then we have this opportunity in here where it could have been utilized for a setup if it were to trade down into it and it did not get down into that. It rallied up, took a slightly higher high, and then just kept bleeding higher. These are very difficult market conditions to be part of here. Unless you have something early on in the day and you're just letting it go, it's real hard to trade these types of moves.

I I let these types of price action segments and and delivery, I just let them go without me. It's not it's not a big deal. I could care less you know who makes money and says look I did this and you know ICT or Michael doesn't say to do these things but here I am doing the opposite I get it you you all want to find some significance in what it is you're doing but you don't always have to use my my name just find significance in your own efforts so the PM session here on Tuesday 1:30 30 right here.

We drop down in during the PM session and it gives you an opportunity to then rip for the high on the buy side there. Nice little V gap there. We have a little bit of a wick that trades down into consequent encroachment. Okay, look at look at the body. See this? See how big that is? How much bigger is to this one and this one and this one. So when you have down down close candles in a series like that, I just recently taught this in a space.

Okay? So if you don't listen to the spaces, if you don't listen to those uh those commentaries, um you're not going to get everything, I guess, until you go through all the videos and and you scour through them and you if you're good at taking notes, you you'll notice them. But if you're not and you're just listening to listen, if you're driving or doing yard work and listening to me do a commentary, that's not the best ideal situation.

Okay? Or if you're using me to fall asleep with, there's a lot of people, my wife tells me all the time, if we go to bed and it's time to sleep, let's put it that way. Um, if I start talking to her, 30 seconds to a minute, she's asleep, and then I ask her, "Did you hear what I said?" Honey, did you hear what I said? I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Your voice is very relaxing and puts me to sleep. I'm like, I know you're not telling a lie because my students tell me the same thing.

So maybe I maybe I should have done work as a um audiobook artist where I would read to you. Would that be interesting? But this down close candle's larger in the body than this one, then that one and this one. So if we look at that, here you go. Look at that. It's almost like it works all the time, doesn't it? So here's the price. The open is 30,519.75. So 519.75. The low on this candle trades down to 30,519. So it went down three ticks just to trade down into change in state delivery.

So we have that run here. Same premise. There's a wick there. Okay. So when we start to anticipate a run off of an order block and it creates a wick. Watch this young men. You mentors out there. [laughter] It's gonna be in all their mentorships. Now watch the wick. You have to measure that because it's going to act with discount sensitivity. Okay? That means the upper half to consequent encouragement. It can touch it.

It can't put a body below it because if it puts a body below consequent encouragement that invalidates the bullishness on short term and the fact that we couldn't put a body even to consequent encroachment of that candlestick right here and the fact that we couldn't even touch it at all validates the bullishness of that change in the day of delivery and that reaction right there. Next candle open as it trades below the opening price.

Just go in there and take a long on that. Just take a long on that. And what is it doing? It's running after a macro. The macro starts over there. Then it goes and creates that low at 6 minutes after 2 p.m. Eastern time. Changes day delivery validated. Does not need to close above it. Why? Because it's taken. Look at these smooth lows here. See that? That's sell side being taken, purging it. Is that fun? Seeing this stuff work like this all the time.

And then it trades above that opening price. Soon as it trades above it, it validates this as an or. So when it trades back down into it, it happens on this candlestick here. Okay? Trades down into it there. You could take that on a long. If you don't have the conviction for that, then just use the close of that candlestick to the consequent encouragement. Anywhere in there is a long. Isn't that nice? Real easy, simple strategy.

Highly, highly precise. And then you can simply just use the low that wick because it shouldn't go below consequent encouragement. And you frame your risk between this candlestick's low of that wick to whatever your entry would be in the upper half to consequent encroachment. that wick. So it would look like this. Anywhere from here to there. Okay. And you can see they reclaimed that area again right there. See that?

One more time. Right to the top. See that? And where's buy side? Right there. So, here we're trading back down into it again. Where's price go? Rips higher. Ain't that wonderful? Goes a little bit higher. And then finally, the last hour trading. Now, we have some weakness in here. This candlestick, see that where it breaks above this, trades above it, and uses this as a bullish pair. gap right there. If we trade down below it like we do over here, that validates it as a ICT inversion fair value gap.

So that's what it starts with there. So it doesn't go to consequent encouragement which is nice. So it's moving higher, but then it gives up the ghost because it's been long in the tooth all afternoon going higher higher higher. So this is going to act as a inversion fair value gap in the future. So you got to be mindful of it. Why? Because it's trading above this high here. And now we have to blend time and price. Okay.

Nanning around here. Takes a buy side there. It gets real sloppy here. And then watch right here during the merger on close or market on close last few minutes of trading in the last hour. It rips lower, comes right back up, hits it there. There's your inversion of your bag gap for MOC. Market on close is very algorithmic when it does that. Down in here we have a wick price goes below it there. You want to grade that.

See that? That's consequent encroachment. We don't want any bodies above that. See that? Isn't that brilliant? Sell sides here goes lower down into 450 and then that's a macro time. It goes right back up into the range and this inefficiency. There's buy side here. They keep relative equal highs here and then they pump it up to clear that and then they take that buy side I just gave you on the highs and then gets ugly during the Asian session and then now we'll look at today.

I know some of you are like, "Anybody can do this, bro. You saw hindsight." Right. Right. I know. I know. Let's see your executions. So, here's the 9:30 selloff here this morning. Okay. Look at all these wicks in here. This is also inside of that upper octant on the daily suspension block and is that bearish bag. Okay, you see that? So in here, rather tricky type of session. You're gonna have to just let this do what it wants to do.

Okay. Then once it clears this area here, it creates a fair value right there. I'll draw it in for you. So there's your first presented fair value and it's conceded there. Rallies up. Same premise. Now watch. This is [clears throat] a very strong entry mechanism. I don't know why you guys keep asking me for entry techniques when I give you bangers. Like they're just nobody's getting you entry signals like I give you.

Okay? And I'm not telling I'm not saying I'm telling you where to buy at live market conditions. I'm telling you how to find them on your own. That's superior to just copying somebody. Okay? I already proved my stuff works and students all around the world prove it. They make money with it. Okay? And they're the highest paid ones that's out there in the prop firm industry. So there's that. The fact that we couldn't get into consequent encouragement there, that's brilliant.

But now we have that wick. Okay. Same idea. We're going to use this right there. Draw it down to the below that wick. Is it touching consequent encouragement? No. That's perfect. That's a strong qual call qualification that it's going to go higher. Now, notice what I'm doing. I'm teaching you order block theory and entry mechanisms around them after they're validated. That's changing the state of delivery. Now, I'm teaching you when the fair value gap forms, it's the first presented fair value gap.

Is there anything different being applied here? No. You're waiting for it to come down into it. Is it trading in the lower half? No. Is it leaving a body in the lower half? No. Is that strength or is that weakness? It's strength. It's validating this this inefficiency. You see all these guys out there, they'll say, they're making videos. They're trying to make a name for themselves. They'll say, you know, I ICT you has some things right, but this is what he doesn't realize.

This is what he doesn't know. You don't even know everything I know. But understand this, when they tell you I don't give you entry mechanisms or how to trade with models from beginning to end, where to take profits, how to manage your stop loss, all that stuff. I have done that. It's at nauseium, okay? I'm an encyclopedia of all that stuff. But you have to determine which one you're going to work with. But I'm showing you the logic here.

Stripped down to the bare chrome, okay? And you know, a young lady I uh I support, I tell her that uh she shouldn't listen to other people in the industry. I heard her in her most recent video, not most recent video, but a recent video. And this is not to get anybody stirred up. And I'm not going to say her name, but she made a comment. She says, "If you can't teach something in very simple terms, you don't really know it." And I agree.

Absolutely agree. But when you're talking to the degree of precision that I present, you're going to have to talk a lot to justify why certain things should be valid and why they aren't when they aren't. So there's a a validation, there's an invalidation. Okay? And when you know those rules, there's no ambiguity. It's very very succinct. It's it's right to the point. So we have this area in here. Same premise. You have the wick that works into the uh the Fairbay gap.

So from the open of that candlestick which is the the body down to the midpoint consequ anywhere anywhere in there that you can afford to get a long on and use the low of that wicks as a stop. It's simple as that folks. It's simple as that. And then once you have that, where's buy side? Right above here. Okay. It runs up, tags it right there. Beautiful. Then market trades lower back down into the suspension block and then trades significantly higher outside of the bearish bear bag gap on the daily chart.

We have a shift in market structure there and now consolidating by side right there. I like that. Look at this wick here. See that wick and this wick here. This is all back and forth type price action. So, this is going to act like a a balanced price range and it's taking buy side. So, anyone that's short their stop loss there, they came right back form there. What's this over here? Relative equal lows. So, they dive down in here.

We have a fair gap there with a suspension block at the high there. And then that's the business on that one. Sells off. Look at the bodies. See how they're not touching consequent encouragement. See that? I know it's a little difficult to see. I apologize. But let me see if I can change the color and see if that helps any. We'll bring it to the front to the back rather. There you go. See how it's below That means it's you see the contrast there.

The bodies are not touching consequent encouragement. You got to include the volume imbalances. Okay. Market dives down. Sell sides resting right here. We dive down. We got that. Beautiful. And then in the PM session, we get a little bit of a wild price action run up in here. Sellside taken. Look at these smooth highs here. and then rallies up. It's this high rather that high and that high. I was talking I touched this area here.

It was really me this trying to talk about that and that high. So there's buy side trail to that. They stabbed up there and got it and then broke lure and I don't know if you hear but Piper is snoring like a lumberjack. Good gracious. So anyway, we have a bearish fair value gap here. Trades up into that. And again, this is the overlap between that daily fair value gap that's bearish and the suspension block. The suspension block high is this right here.

This right here. That's why it's shaded a little bit different. There's pink. There's this weird like salmon colored. And then there's like a orange hue. Orange hue is the daily suspension block. the orange I'm sorry the salmon color is the bleeding between the bearish verb bag in pink and the daily suspension block and I know that's a whole lot of stuff and you know there's there's other ways that you can trade that are very simple but simple isn't always precise simple isn't always as reliable okay there there's a there's a trade-off when when you want to do simple simple model simple this and simple that um I look at it this way.

Flipping a quarter and buying on heads and shorting on tails is as simple as you can get. Why aren't you doing that? Because you don't have any faith behind that. So, what are you going to subscribe? You're going to subscribe faith to things that really aren't making price go up and down. So, when you when you look at these things I'm teaching you, and it could be a whole lot of stuff on the chart like it is, and this is a very busy chart, but again, I'm showing you the levels that I would have on my notepad.

It's the high of this, the low of this, these levels up in here on the bearish fair gap in the quadrants and octants on the daily suspension block. They're utilizing them here. Look at the fair bay gap here. See that? Look at the fair gap there. How do you know? You see all these guys that use my name because they want to get they want the traffic. But when you turn into listen to them, they're always trying to correct me or tell me I'm doing something incorrect.

But I'm the one that created this stuff. I don't get it. But I understand you're trying to make a name for yourself. But you you got to stop lying, man. You got to stop what they call it? You got to stop the cat. So we have this area right in here. So the close of that candlestick comes in at 146 half and the open comes in at 146 half. So we got to go up to the wick. So there is no volume imbalance on the low. There is a volume imbalance or no is there the open 165 half the open on this.

So yes there is a volume imbalance there. Let me make sure. I don't trust my old eyes. No, I don't know what I'm talking about. So, we're use the low on that wick down to the high of that wick. Okay. So, there's your there's your fair bay gap. Now, where's the fair bay gap forming? It's at the low of the overlapping bearish fair gap in pink and the suspension block. You see that? So, how do we validate fair bay gaps?

Well, we don't use volume profile. Okay, there's a lot of guys out there trying to say, uh, this is how you find the real fair value gaps. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. The fair value gaps are either first presentation, and if they're not first presented, then they are always anchored to a octant or a quadrant. Period. I don't care what you want to make it sound like or seem like because you want to sell some course or you want to sell some traffic, you know, coming to your channels or whatever it is you do.

If you're if you're listening to anyone tell you that that volume profile and a low volume node, sometimes they sometimes they might agree, but that's not the logic. That is not the logic. The logic is it's anchored to a quadrant level or a low which is what it's part of the range. So this bleeding over here that creates an effect another PD array shadow. [laughter] That's what it is. It's a shadow. Okay. A PD array simply called a shadow because it's casting a shadow over top of another imbalance.

So, this shaded area in Salmon, you would you can grade that also. Now, I'll just do it just for spits and giggles. Okay, we'll do that right there. And then we'll add all of these. I know you guys like to get my fib levels. Don't tell anybody what they are, okay? You start sharing this on the internet and a whole my whole scheme's been exposed. [laughter] All right. Yeah, the market trades down. Look at that. It's that right there.

That's the upper quadrant of that range. Now, you wouldn't look at that range. Supply and demand wouldn't look at that range. Volume profile wouldn't look at that range. Footprint wouldn't look at that range and grade that like that. See that? So, when we have these things form like this, you have the opportunity to then measure any PDA that lays down. That means it has to be touching. It could be the high or the low or anywhere in between, but it has to be touching it.

That means it's anchored. Here is a wick right there. You see that we open immediate rebalance creates a volume imbalance. But look at this candlestick's low. See that 30,175 even. What's the candlestick high on that? 130. I'm sorry. 30,175 half. So, it went two ticks up there to meet that and trade back to this candlesticks close. Close is 175.25. To get that price, you're going to have to go one tick above it. And that's what you're getting there. or one tick higher than quarter.

Fails to trade lower, but it's working inside of the volume imbalance right there at that candlesticks open. Look at that. 173 3/4. So 173.75 this candlestick high 173.75 volume imbalance perfect. You're not getting that with order flow. You're not getting that with volume profile. You're not getting what Elliot Weave. You're not getting that with white cough. You're not getting it with GAN. You're not getting you know what I'm saying?

I could go through the whole gambit here. Everything else is second fiddle. Okay? And it's not me bragging. I'm trying to encourage you to just understand that you're light years ahead of everybody else learning what I'm teaching you for free. For free. Ain't that nice? It's almost like I don't need your money. So, we have this fair bay gap here. It's anchored to the low of that shadow, which is a bleeding over of two imbalances.

Trades lower. Look at this. Oh, here we have another fair value. Maybe maybe there was a a low volume node there. No, there's your level. It's an octant. Okay, that's what makes it valid. I know you guys don't want to believe it's just this easy, but you got so used to calling what I teach complicated. It's It's really not. It's complicated if you want shortcuts. It's complicated if you want a fiveminute trainer. But here we have it.

Sells off in here. We have another fair value gap here. Now, this is where you have to use like 16s. Yeah, we can go down between the oct and the quadrant and split that in half. Yeah, you might want to start doing that. I'm not going to do it because it's too good, but all you guys out there should start doing it. Okay. And then we create these relative equal lows here. And we're now just sitting right here with regular trading hours down closed.

So PM session really nice little ride up into this sold off. Um I was waiting for my wife and son to tell me they had landed and they weren't giving me the text messages I was hoping for and then my niece who's with them sent me pictures of where they're at and said, you know, doesn't look any different than where we live, right? So, I told her wait till she gets where she's going and then she can tell me all that. But we'll see uh what the market does overnight and I will touch base with you tomorrow.

Ah, you know what? Let's let's let's go through a couple things. Um let's go out to the dollar index real quick. I'm I'm getting ready to run away from you and short change you. Good grief. See that? All right. So, there's the daily chart on the dollar index. And I wonder why that background color looks like that. What happened there? I don't know, but we're going to go with it. Actually feels pretty good looking at it like that.

It's easy on the eyes. All right, so we're looking at that uh buy sell side efficiency. Really nice little high formed right where the old guy guessed about it and then traded lower. Uh we we closed outside of that bullish fair value gap. I don't know if it's going to do it by this week. I'd like to see it run up here and get that high which we were looking for. It doesn't need to because on this date I told you that was enough while the euro and pound dollar hit our targets.

So, do we get a continuation higher on the dollar? We'll we'll have to see. I I don't personally care. I'm not trading forex. And if I would have if I would have been, I would have already been out at the targets I gave you. And uh that's that's being content. We're in the month of July. You know, we're we're right around when the market goes into summer doldrums now, barring something like a geopolitical upheaval. You know, just it's just expect the market to be a little bit more finicky.

That means fickle. That means not as conducive for very low resistance liquidity run conditions. Expect a little bit of opposition, let's put it that way. So, what does that mean? Slow down in your trades. Look for one or two setups for the week. Once you get it, be done. If that means you get a longer weekend, guess what? That's a blessing. You'll be enjoying the weekend because you didn't risk more in lower probability conditions.

I I don't have any bias that's strong right now. I'm just looking to see if it can get up there. I don't care if it does. I'm not vested in it. Okay. uh the Euro dollar. Okay, we went hit our targets in here. I gave you this wick the last time we talked and I graded that and I said I didn't want to see any bodies above the half of that. Okay, and let's look at this business right there. So, we have this wick consequent encroachments right there.

Let me get all these other wicks out of the way because it's it's not terribly necessary to have all that on there. How you doing, by the way? I didn't ask. I'm I'm being really rude. Um, I'm a little bit emotionally drained because whenever my wife goes away, I'm a little nervous because, you know, she walks around, she looks at her phone. [laughter] She not she's not really aware of her surroundings and she has my youngest with her and she has my niece.

So, there's terrible distractions where she's going, where she's at, rather. And I I'm just obsessively worried about her. And I obviously I trust God and trust the Lord. He's got her in his hands, but you know, doesn't change the fact that I'm human. The bodies stayed below that. Notice that here. And today we had a little bit of a dive there. So, what makes this valid for a lower run in price? If we can get down to that level there, here it would have to close above this wicks consequent encouragement.

You see a theme here how I'm teaching you to use these wicks. It's giving you discount sensitivity validation for continuation going lower. Um, where are we at here? I watched the Larry Williams presentation over there at Ninja Trader today. It was very nostalgic for me. It It feels like the videos I watched when I was 20 years old and fell in love with a different form of looking at the marketplace. And while I don't really do a lot of the things he he teaches and and what he taught initially when I first learned how to use the things he sees in price action like commitment of traders um seasonal tendencies and business as he mentioned today in the presentation and I always say it every time I get a chance to say it too um he was the first one to write about seasonal tendencies and I think that Steve Moore did an amazing job in making it the best in the industry.

So if you're looking for seasonal tendencies that he's the guy to go to. Um, but just listening to him talk about, you know, commodities, it just it really warms my heart to think about how far I've gone from those days in 1992, 1993, four, five, and six, and finally figuring all this stuff out, you know. Um, he was a very very strong influence on me as a trader, as an analyst, as a student of price action in the markets.

And it helped me stay away from chasing other indicator-based ideas because he had lots of those types of things. He had indicator ideas and he also had pattern ideas. And while he has the receipts to prove he's made real money trading those patterns, he has faith in those patterns. I don't have faith in those patterns. I tried some of them. I I I didn't do them long enough to give a valid uh baseline to say they did or didn't work long term.

I just know that I couldn't do that type of trading. And a lot of the things he talked about was like, you know, a candle that has a a higher open than yesterday's close and it does this and does that. You know, I I found a better way of making it understandable for me by simply looking at the opening range. If it's going to open higher than where we closed yesterday, well, guess what that means? We have a premium gap opening.

So, we have a regular trading hours opening range gap that's higher. We will look for a potential opportunity to fill it, but if it doesn't fill it all the way, half of it's enough to see it go higher if it's going to be bullish. Or if I'm bearish, I want to see it break through and then use that opening range gap as a means of measuring projections going lower. So that's how I used the infancy as a trader using his information.

It has nothing to do with what I'm teaching today and how I trade, but it had great influence over me as a technician, as someone that was formulating an approach and then formulating a whole compendium of of trading logic. But anyway, I tossed it in there no extra charge, but uh it needs to close above this. I'm sorry, forgive me. It needs to close below this rather, and then that would warrant uh continuation. The way it is right now, we had an opportunity to try it here.

It didn't do it. Uh we're in here in the kind of like no man's land. So we had this consequent encroachment keep it at bay not having any bodies go up the upside but we have this one down here. So we're kind of trapped between these two. Yeah. I I don't know. And if it's viewed if it's viewed from the perspective of it could go higher, it could go lower and that sounds like you know indecision. If you have that opinion when you look at a particular market, anytime that you look at a market like that and you have that it could do this or could do that, turn your chart off.

I promise you that you're going to save all kinds of money doing that. You're going to save a whole lot of grief. You're going to save a whole lot of mental capital and just regret because if you're right, it was a guess. If you're wrong, you knew better and you still did it. You didn't know for certain it was going to be one-sided. And one-sided market conditions is how I teach high probability. If you can frame it on both sides of the market, if it can be bullish or bearish and you can argue both sides, don't trade it.

How's that hard? You know what it feels like when you're looking at the market and it's not terribly bullish. It could be potentially bearish. It could do something that goes a little bit lower. Is that indicative of some market or timing for you to go long? No. But because of your lack of discipline or you're not using a model or you're impatient, you just want to do something. You're going to chase the participation award in trading.

And participation awards don't always yield to a higher bank account. So that's the business owner. Let's take a quick look at crude oil. All right. So, we're working our way down into that uh lower portion of that volume and bounce I told you about back here. Okay. So, we have over $24,000 in movement for one contract. And this area down here, I told you if we use the adjust for contract rollover, you'll see that's that volume balance on that one.

See, it's not up here. And I'm showing you by contrast two of them. Watch. I'll take it off again. It's showing here for this. But if I toggle it on, it's there but not there. So that's why that's shaded down there. Okay. So if we really wilt at these prices here, we could see it try to trade down into that area. This is the whole benefit of me having shown you this in the beginning anyway. Uh am I saying it's going to go there?

Uh no, I'm saying watch and see what it does. There's a whole lot of things going on over there at uh the warfront and if you know if they start giving you really scary sounding news in my opinion stick to this logic okay until we get down into here and then once it gets down there I have no idea what crude oil is going to do right now I'm just sticking with the idea it could go it could go down there I wouldn't buy it I wouldn't be buying it even though we are entering a seasonal tendency.

Okay? And if you have Steve Moore's seasonal tendencies for crude oil, heating oil and and whatnot, you'll see that around July, second week of July, something like that. Um the energy start going up. Why? Because we have summer travel. People like driving. Um there's a lot of flying, all the energies and and fuels get used up. And also lots of companies that proide they provide propane, heating oil, gas, those types of things. um they have to build up their supply for the coming cold months.

So that's the reason why in the next couple months all the energies should technically be bullish by and of itself. But if things start to ramp up from a geo geopolitical uh persuasion, that means like the wartime stuff over there in the Middle East, if that ramps up and goes to a next level while we're in the seasonal tendency, then we could start seeing a little bit of extrapolation to the upside because these areas up here look a little suspect.

I I just don't see that as a topping formation. Okay? But it could drop down here and kill anybody that's long on crude oil and then create some kind of a, you know, knee-jerk reaction higher on some kind of a news and then it'll be justified because it's the news, right? But anyway, what else? Um, Bitcoin. All right, so we went a little bit lower in here. Had a little bit of a runup today. I I I don't know what type of retracement it would need in here.

I I want to see if it can get down here because I'm learning, folks. I'm learning crypto, right? I'm never going to trade this stuff. But that low to this old low, which is 49656, half of that's right here. Okay. So, this was target two, but when we created that low here, then I created that event horizon line. And then now we call that target two at 54 353. And then target three is that. All right. Um, as long as we remain below this high, I'm expecting something like this and like that.

But I don't ever trade crypto. I've never traded crypto. So, please don't blame me if you miss an opportunity or if you lose money. I'm just sharing my opinion. I'm reading price action. Okay. So, there's that. Um, I think if I'm not mistaken, that covers just about everything, doesn't it? gold. We'll call gold. Here you go. All right. So, gold's maring around inside this fairway gap. So, we have this area here. It's working inside of that.

So, we'll see. I like how it came up and took this short-term high out there. So, if we start the wilt going lower because we already hit our target there. We're done as far as gold. Um we were talking about gold here going down and then the high was formed here looking for a failure inversion fair value gap and then sold off. So we were all over gold. No no no extra stuff required and then silver. Um we we had our target there.

Same thing. It's inside this fair. I'm not going to draw it out but it's inside that. So if we start to wilt again, we have this sell side there and then these relative equal lows. So it's actually a significant low there. So if it takes that out and that would probably disrupt a whole lot of long-term bullishness for the metals, you will it get there. I don't know. I'm not interested in trading it. I'm I'm I'm content with $60,000 of just this run here, let alone the one back here I told you about.

You know, it is what it is. I'm not I'm not bragging. I'm not trying to beat my chest and say, you know, look how superior I am. I'm just telling you, just go back and listen to the old man talk. You see it now, right? So, I think that sincerely covers everything, at least the markets I want to talk about, and I'm going to wish you all a very pleasant evening. I'm going to retire for the night and try to find my way to uh a new morning tomorrow with maybe an opportunity to share with you again.

If I don't, don't be upset with me. If I don't start talking to you by uh 8 in the morning, Eastern time, I'm probably not going to talk to you during the market hours. Let's put it that way. Until I talk to you next time, be