The Morning After: Trump at UN, Iran, AI Stocks, Agentic AI transcript

I am with you. With you. Oh man, your boy Kevin [music] just lost lots of money. Oh, but that's okay. I am with you. But here we [music] go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. But here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. [music] Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. Buy the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Oh my god. What's [music] happening? >> First of all, all of this whining by Wall Street is making me sick. 140% of GameStop was short.

[music] GameStop was short. Short. You can't allow Wall Street to short 75% of a stock. Crushing companies into the dirt. [music] Thousands of stocks into the dirt. Then when the individual makes money, everyone's entrepreneurs. I have a kid who bought a house, paid $50,000, and bought [music] a house. After decades of the short, you have to accept the fact that individual investors are playing the same game that you're playing, and now you're losing. >> Here we go.

Come on. Push it. Buy the dip. [music] Find the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Find the dip. Find the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Find the dip. Find the dip. [music] Here we go. Come on. Push it. Oh my god. What's happening? Here we go. Come on. Push it. Find the dip. Find the dip. Here we go. Come on. Push it. Push it. Push it. Find the [music] Here we go. Come on. Push it. Find the Here we go. Come on. Push it.

Oh my god. What's happening? There's a lot of [music] power in this organization online. Two million people can get together in a subreddit. I think it's really funny that the [music] GameStop stock is going up and just affect the market in that way. There's 20,000 people live in a Discord who are spamming rocket emojis yelling [music] go to the moon. [music] Oh man. Welcome on back to another stock market open live stream.

We are 1 minute away from the opening bell and we have Brent sitting at $98. Nicely under 100. Love to hear that. Uh nicely under 100. Over here we got the 10-year yield down under $4.95. It was actually down at 4.93 this morning, but we ended up getting a nice little juiced up ADP weekly. Boy, oh boy. If you haven't seen what happened on ADP weekly yet, you got to watch the course member live stream. Uh I know it was good.

Uh there's no secret there, but uh a lot of people don't pay attention to the ADP weekly, and I I think it is is quite critical. Uh any we've got um we've got this potential setup for a little bit of a giveback today. Let's see how markets end up moving today. Uh also very interesting. Uh we'll talk about that a little bit. We got about 5 seconds to go before El Bellow. So, let's get the bell. Let's see if we got some Sarah Eisen over here.

Come on, baby. Oh, whatever. [cheering] >> Offides yesterday. [applause] Don't go anywhere. Let's get this opening bell this morning at the big board on Wall Street. It's the water resilience hosted by company. It's outdoor company. >> Charge point. >> Charge point still exists in Chicago. It's Women Investment Professionals, a nonprofit focused on advancing [applause and cheering] women in the investment industry. 7771 here at the Open.

Mike, the other thing about yesterday was it's not that often. >> Double it up, baby. Double it up. All right, cool. Let's see uh let's see how things cook this morning. >> So, uh obviously today is the day of the US uh United Nations General Assembly. Uh so we've got a lot of opium that a meeting is going to occur and we don't know if one will be done but obviously as is stated here the focus is on Iran. You had a lot of people speaking the the main speeches here are not really where you expect to hear anything.

Man, that is a colorful uniform. Look at that. Dang, that is some colorful green. Uh but anyway, uh I got the knee pads. What are the knee pads for? I don't want to know. Anyway, so um you're not going to like the speech from Donald Trump that's going to come here. This isn't really going to matter. Remember these what you're looking for is what happens on the sidelines. You want to see what happens between Iran uh and the United States, if anything outside of that room.

Uh so we'll see. You know, Trump sat in there. He there were there was talk this morning that he was open to meeting with the Iranians uh if the conditions were right. I've got Aragoti apparently meeting his Italian counterpart in New York. Uh he's the foreign minister. I've got an indication here that explosions occurred in the straight of Hormuz after IRGC attacked chips. the left hand doesn't often speak to the right hand in Iran and that that does make uh things a little bit more problematic, but it's very difficult to argue that they have a very unified response.

So, but Argagotchi is a tool, especially since he's more of a hawkish one, to get some something cooking here. So, I am optimistic. Uh why the world should care about the far right's rise in Germany the day the alternative on 43% of the popular vote. Oh no. Uh but anyway they say a lot of folks actually say they they model after a lot of what uh what what Trump does. But we don't need to talk about uh Germany here. We need to focus on what's going on with El Mar.

Uh and that's going to be specifically watching our 10-year. Again, not super useful that uh ADP was strong this morning for the 10 years point of view. Uh but it is still down. Oil prices also uh stable. Let's go take a look at the 102 102 spread at 20 bips. This is great. You're just not in shock territory right now. You are walking away from shock territory. This is great. Kind of come off a cliff off this shock level.

This reduces the risk of private credit uh problems in my opinion. A labor shock. Bond market does does a decent job at telling all. Look at that. Actually got a nice little punch today uh on the cues. Let's see what is pushing the cues. So I've got uh Lenar is up 3.5%. We were just talking about them in the alpha membership. Uh AMD a little bit of a give back, but it's also already coming back. See if that holds. We're only about 3 minutes into the day.

You've got uh Crowd Strike, Cloudflare down about a half percent. Meta going for another day in a row here of rally. Uh it's impressive. You've got uh let's see Q's 23 bips so far. This is great. This is great. Uh especially after a day like yesterday, there's there's always so much fear that oh no, you know, oh what what happens after a day like that? And it's totally reasonable to be cautious on a day uh like after you know what we had yesterday.

But this is great if we can if we could actually hold this 7:43. Fantastic. I don't believe and we touched on this a bit in the course live. I don't believe that what happened yesterday was a short squeeze. I think it was people waking up. Yeah, there we go. That's great. There's our canary today. Nvidia, very nice. Uh we're almost at uh 230 here. That's fantastic. I've got Fed Collins talking uh supported last week's rate hike.

Now we see an increased likelihood of future scenarios in which inflation remains above 2%. Fed Collins while there are upside risk to uh the upside risk to inflation have increased. Labor market conditions seem a bit stronger overall. Fed Collins with the labor market on better footing monetary policy can focus on a timely return to price stability. Yeah, whatever. Okay, very good. Let's see. So that's that's what we got with yields.

That's what we got with oil. We've got uh Nvidia is passing the test. Software firms discount AI. Let's go see what's going on with the discounts over here. Uh Mu Metamuse tries and fails to disrupt Amazon. I don't think that was the intention, but somebody over there's got a little too much Amazon stock. Let's go see what they wrote. Xbox to cut hund hundreds of jobs. Yeah, that's a bummer. Blah blah blah blah. Aura filed IPO.

We covered the Aura IPO. You could actually type into YouTube meet Kevin Our ring and you could see me absolutely dump uh on um on the Aura IPO. Sorry for anybody who's trying to make money off of the Aura IPO. I apologize. I think Apple just killed them. Sorry. You know, I've also noticed in in writing uh like on an iPad with the new OS, Apple seems to have included Grammarly style suggestions. Apple's really good at sort of seeing what apps work well and then kind of taking those apps or integrating the the same technology.

It's actually very interesting. But uh yeah, what we can see here is Nvidia is uh continuing to push pushing up now towards the uh 230 line uh which is which is uh this is probably the most critical item right here today. So see if that can hold up. Software firms uh at providers like Amazon, Microsoft, Figma, and Workday are dangling new discounts on AI products to clients. It's everybody's trying to get clients. It's not only advertising, it is pricing, special offers.

I mean, you could say OpenAI and and Anthropic do this as well. Oh, come back. You know, whatever after they purchase, increase budgets for claw code, open AI code X. Let's see. Businesses are grumbling about shifts AI usage. For example, an executive at a global manufacturer with a market cap of 40 bills said Microsoft offered the company a grace period of at least a month to keep paying Microsoft a seatbased fee for GitHub.

After Microsoft started charging customers based on how much people use the product. Yeah. Yeah, that's interesting. You start moving to token pricing, people start getting a little pissed. Well, it's unpredictable that way, right? It's harder to manage your budget as a company. The pricing change means the manufacturer is due to pay Microsoft an additional $150,000 or so a month for employees use of the tool. Yeah, $40 billion company though.

Microsoft also gave the company tens of thousands of dollars in free credits. Yeah. To try to get them to make the transition essentially. New discounts show that traditional software providers four years into the AI boom are still figuring out how to compete with OpenAI and Dropic. Right. I mean, honestly, a company like Figma, uh, they've they've almost, I feel like, replaced a company like Figma. I was just, we were just doing some, uh, H.

Come on, Nvidia. We need you to hold, man. This is what we need today. Uh, you know, that's going to drag on the cues though. Keep sort of rolls over. It's all right. How's uh how's our software doing today? Nvidia, Zatel, and software. Okay. Salesforce wants to hold the line. It looks like 239. It's at least where we're edging. [laughter] Let's go look at So that's Salesforce. How about Atlassian? Uh, same pattern now.

Same pattern. All of them being traded together. Palunteer. What the heck is this? There we go. Yeah, same pattern. Look at that. Isn't that weird? All of them exactly the same pattern together. Broadcom. Oh, that's a big old arrow down. And uh Tesla, same p boy. All of them have had the same pattern this morning. This is crazy. Oh my goodness. Lenar up 4.4%. Uh, okay. So, the newcomers continue to improve their technology for automating work in numerous fields blah blah blah.

Technology software providers themselves are paying Anthropic and Open AAI to power new AI features. Oh yeah, did I say Figma? Oh my gosh, dude. You don't need Figma anymore. like Anthropic will do it for you in in a prompt. Holy smokes. Figma has been replaced. Figma and Adobe, man. Oh boy. These are tough to argue for. These are tough to make an argument for. I don't Let's see. the chief uh [cough] chief information officer at credit scoring firm FICO suggested his company is benefiting from efforts by many traditional software providers to keep accounts from shifting spending to anthropic and open AAI at FICO wait what suggested his company is benefiting from efforts oh oh right right because they're going to throw you deals sure yeah FICO has more than 3,000 employees why and they use companies like Salesforce Oracle workday yeah this is is still a problem.

This is kind of wild. Oh, is AMD pushing again? Let's go see. Let's go see. Uh, you know, it tried to with Nvidia. Both of them try to, but they're both, you know, you got you got to be cautious on the morning after. That's why the title of the video is or this segment or whatever this live stream is, the morning after. Okay? Like the evening was fun. Yesterday was fun. It's the morning after now. Now we got to, you know, try the eggs.

Let's see how breakfast is. All right. If a vendor doesn't heavily discount or if you're still there [laughter] or you've already bailed, uh, if a vendor doesn't heavily discount or bundle it, AI capabilities is a contract want to sign anymore because he doesn't think AI tools are worth the extra fee. Okay. Workday human resources software provider is one such firm offering incentives to select customers. The company said that this summer it launched a program offering unlimited free access to its AI platform SA Enterprise. 20 large enterprises are participating in the program which gives them AI agents to automate human resources and finance tasks like onboarding new employees.

Oh, Trump's at the escalator. Oh no. Oh no, he's at the escalator again. Oh, she's smiling. Yeah, you know what happened last time at those deadly escalators? Oh my gosh. Oh man. The deadline. Oh, there's What does Sarah say? >> In terms of bilats between the US and Iran, although Secretary of State was interviewed by NBC today said he would be >> Sarah got dressed up today. >> Echoed those remarks. So, we're definitely watching his schedule today to see if they squeeze in a pull aside. >> Yeah.

I mean, I think that just the the air of diplomacy is maybe giving the the oil market a little bit of of optimism here. We have seen, as you mentioned, five straight down days of oil prices. The >> breaking news, Donald Trump survived the escalator, [laughter] >> man. I don't want to change the channel for some reason. Oh, I got to go from this to this. Come on, man. That's no fun. Go from Sarah to Sana Enterprise. About 20 large enterprises are participating in the program.

All right. Workdays, president of technology, said during an earnings conference call late August that our focus is really on adoption. Adoption, option. Yeah, whatever. Being more flexible. Uh-huh. Yeah. Figma CEO said this month at Goldman Sachs tech conference that the design software provider recently cut the cost of its AI products and as Yeah, because you have no pricing power, bro. I it would actually be very interesting to see what's happening at the Figma uh at Figma's earnings.

Uh let's see here. Let's go take a look. Well, I have not looked at their like it's it's easy to dunk on them just because I care zero about using Figma now. Uh, but let's see if if other people feel that way, you know. Maybe maybe maybe not. So, we got a 10 Q from Figma. Let's go look at it. 10 Q Figma. Let's go see what AI's damage actually is. You know, it's like Shod and Floyd. Like, let's go see how bad it is. That's just bad.

It's bad. Am I Am I a bad person for for saying that? Yeah, maybe. All right, let's see what we got. Okay. Financial statements, please. All right. What do I got here? This is the BS. Oops. The BS. I don't know that I care so much about the BS right now. I care about the IS. I want the IS, baby. Not the BS. Don't give me the BS. Just give me the is. All right. What do we got? This is And they still got gross. Gross profit's growing, man.

Look at that. Uh so their gross profit as uh 309611 divided by 37083 gross profit is 83% and it was 221 it was a lot higher I feel like 249 640 I could be wrong. Let me see here 88. Yeah. Yeah. So margins compressed on the top line. Gross margin down uh down from 88.8 8 to 83.7. And then if I go to Ooh, their other income has tanked. What happened over here? SG. Oh my god, dude. Oh, they are panicking. Holy moly. I haven't seen panic like this before.

Oh my goodness. But hold on a sec. Their revenue in fairness did grow a lot. 370 370 times 249.6. I mean, in fairness, what is that at 371? I can't I can't do math today. That is a 48% increase. 48.2% increase on rev. Gross profit margin went up to 21.7.8%. No, it can't be it can't be that. I think I am screwing up with the calculator. Yeah. No, 39%. There we go. That looks more right. 39.6%. So you could see that spread right there, right?

That spread is weakening pricing power. But what happened over here? Look at this. 426.9 divided by 219.6. Oh, OPX is up 94%, dude. Holy moly. They doubled R&D to try to stay competitive. They increased their sales by 59% on marketing and their GNA almost tripled. What is going on here? Two. Yeah. 2.7x on GNA. They literally went from, hey guys, we had our first profitable quarter to f it. We are down negative 117 mil.

Wow. from profitable to f it. [laughter] I'm an ass. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I I No, I'm sorry. Let me go. Let's look at something nice. >> Man of Open AI will be addressing the UN Security Council >> Notch in person or remote, but >> you know, clearly AI is the topic dour as we wait to see whether anything come out of Trump and she Alibaba's update, David, I highlight the fact that, you know, they're not slowing down.

Yeah, Alibaba had some new chip. Let's go look at that. D right after we figure out how to spell dour. Dour. Oh, I learned the craziest thing yesterday. So, um, uh, China when they discovered gunpowder during like the Song Dynasty, they would do whatever they could to restrict the export of like the nitrates or nitrites and uh, sulfur. So they restricted exports for critical minerals literally a thousand years ago. A thousand years ago they're like those are our critical minerals.

You can't have them. And then people like the Koreans ended up getting the material through other methods or smuggling corporate espionage or just straight up theft from China to get the critical minerals. Today there's so much talk about China and the control they have over critical minerals and it's like [snorts] wow nothing's changed in a thousand years. That's crazy. [laughter] I think that's crazy. Oh man. All right.

What was the Alibaba thing? That was their their chip chip unveiled. All right. Let's go see what we got. Alibaba is rolling out what China calls the most powerful chip, the greatest ever. an accelerator to compete with Trump will speak at the UN whatever uh to compete with Nvidia and underpaid a massive expansion of data center capacity whatever they have released the new Quinn Wu V900 accelerator uh it says it triples the performance of its predecessor from garbage to gold Alibaba's tea head tea head who do you work for oh tea head that's weird can be combined with clusters of 500,000 to power uh Frontier Training.

Alibaba spending bigly blah blah blah blah blah blah. Yeah, whatever. We got to catch up, man. Got to step it up. All right, what do we got going on? Oh, look at that. It's almost a perfect bounce. 22706. We just bounced at 22720. 14 cents, baby. 14 cents. That's crazy. Holy moly. So, you do see a little bit of that pressure to give back today. Uh Nvidia holding this is very important. This is a very desirable test right here.

Actually, the more we can prove that 227 line is now in our past, the more bullish it is long term. Obviously, the morning after tends to be a little bit more tenuous, and we can kind of see that across the board right now. Uh SpaceX is up ABOUT A PERCENT. OH, RIGHT on this line over here. Well, that's within about 43 cents of uh the 1598 line. That is uh relative to the 133 line. Also a very important line. If you don't have this for SpaceX, I'd recommend writing down the 1334 line.

I think that's a juicy one. Uh this is very impressive though. The Q's are holding and we have our next testing ground at all-time highs at 748.65. I think we're going to arrive at that destination way sooner than expected, which is great for the stock market sometimes. Not great in other purposes. All right, so where were we? We were just talking about software discounts. Did we finish this yet? Oh, yeah. Then we made fun of Figma.

Primary objective is to drive volume rather than commanding high margins. That's a wonderful way to brand the oopsies because in my opinion what's actually happening is they are getting forced to reduce pricing and increase expenditures. And so now they're branding that as oh yeah guys all of that that's actually intentional. Yeah. Oh, we went from profitable to to losing money. Yeah. Yeah, we we actually meant to. That was intentional.

[laughter] Uh okay. So, uh okay, Pigma. Oh, in uh in January, I wrote that this has a at least well, I wrote it has a 20% downside ahead of it. I I was really bearish on it. It's still the peg ratios are still pretty freaking high on it, but that's interesting. Uh oh, I ain't loading right now. I'd like to be able to load it. Come on. Where are you? All right, here we go. Figma. So, let's put away the Lord. This was my Figma takeover here.

[clears throat] Uh on a PEG ratio ratio basis alone, this has a 20% downside ahead of it. suffering from massive expensive expenses likely mostly stock comp assignments that make this financials look really bad. But they also have terrible lockup expirations coming up in March, February, and October. Uh suffers from AI software fears and the PEG ratio alone has 20% downside ahead of it. Well, that was in January. I think it's gone down more than 20%, but let's go look.

Oh, let's go on the cues. Okay, let's go see. So this is going to be Figma Janu. Oh, we come down more than 20%. January was over here 30 uh 33 bucks. I guess it depends where in January. So this was January 22nd. January 22nd we said 20% downside ahead of it in the course member live streams. January 22nd it closed for $28. So 22 divided by 28. Oh my god. You have got to be kidding me. So January 22nd we said 22% downside or sorry 20% downside.

We got 21.5ish 21.5ish downside. That's crazy. All right. Oh, let's I'm making a little note of that. That's cool. Okay, so let's see. Figma Figma Figma Figma balls. That doesn't sound right. All right, here we go. So, Figma 21.4% 4% downside since our Jan 22nd update where it closed at uh about $28, now at $22. That's crazy. Not getting better. Not getting better. [clears throat] All right, let's send that through. Okay, next.

Let's go see what else is cooking Bigma. So, next stop Q's where are we cooking today? Palanteers barely holding on a quarter of a percent today. Uh Tesla still slowly marching on towards its uh 414 level. Let's listen in here for just a brief moment. >> When he starts speaking at that's after that's Brazil's president there. Once he wraps up, we expect President Trump to take the stage. highlights here to bring you.

The president expecting [music] to discuss using America's power to reshape the world to America's benefit. He'll mention Iran's nuclear program, cartel violence, and Greenland as well. There is a trilateral signing with Green Mark. >> Oh, it's going to be so boring. Anyway, all right, let's go keep looking at money, honey. Software [clears throat] firms offer 30 to 50% discounts on AI and extend trial periods for new products.

Previously, discounts were below 20%. H, there's a bad piece in the uh the information over here, huh? Adobe, meanwhile, offers customers free versions of some of its AI products. Premium strategy, Microsoft and Amazon, too. It isn't just traditional software firms that have caught the discounting bug. Large cloud providers such as Amazon and Microsoft are also sweetening pitches to customers to drive adoption. Microsoft has gotten more generous with discounts of C-Pilot for enterprise uh customers in recent months.

Microsoft sells Copilot for $30 a month. Recently, companies recently began to pay extra depending on how much they use certain features to sway customers. They've started offering discounts per seat if you get large seats. AWS has offered a consulting firm around four months free of its most expensive form uh form of their coding assistant. Wow, dude. Everybody's trying to discount to gain share. That's crazy. But I mean, I think that's true at the labs, too.

You know, if you look at Anthropic or OpenAI or whatever, it's probably happening there as well. [clears throat] Amazon previously blocked Google and OpenAI bots without drama. Amazon's action against Meta is a bit more reminiscent of them blocking perplexities agents which sparked a lawsuit over time. Pressure by consumer uh over time pressure by consumer services with Moes will provide direct access. These services include restaurant groceries drivers presumably Amazon as well plus content companies with copyright protection protections blah blah blah.

[clears throat] Yeah. I mean like I guess the should technically companies enable agents to go to your platform? I mean I kind of think they should like what I don't why why do I have to get a link like just let the agent go by? I don't know. It's like hey go order me some some uh I don't know dry erase markers you know whatever. Just give me the best deal on some dry erase markers. Go. You know what I think it is is I think that at least what I found is you almost have to scroll more to find the better priced product sometimes.

I don't know if that's always true. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but uh I mean I'll try it really quick. Let's just type in dry erase markers. Like they usually seem to put the higher margin stuff at the top. Let's see if that's true with dry erase markers. I don't know. I mean six bucks over here and I get the Amazon basic ones. I don't know that I want the Amazon basic ones. I think I want the expo, but then the first set of like expos I've got here, those are the thin ones.

I don't want the thin ones. I want the normal whiteboard ones. You know, 21 bucks over here. So, that's the first normal one. Then I've got eight an $8 one over here. Okay, that's not that bad. I didn't have to scroll that far for that, you know. So, the first expo normal fat marker, eight bucks. Uh, let's just keep going. I don't know. I get any better deals if I go down more on expo markers. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. See, look at this.

Look at this right here. See, this is what I'm telling you. You keep scrolling and now I got a four count for $4. Sometimes you don't need more than that though. Now I know the package size changes, but they like they purposefully put some they hide some of these cheaper deals down here. Like this is the same deal they had that was the first thing, the Amazon basics one, but then there's the $4 actual expo smaller product, but they're putting the smaller stuff and the cheaper stuff down low.

It makes sense, but like dude, this is overwhelming. You know, an agent could study this way better than I can and way faster. Like why is this one $4.49 49 for a fourack and this one right here is 3.98 for a fourack. I don't know. I don't know what the difference is between this Expo dry erase markers. Low odor, man. I want high odor. Give me high odor. I You know what? Let's get together and pop some markers together.

[sighs] Oh, it smells good. Anyway, all right. So, where were we? Well, we're still dangling at 227. Just cautious kind of day. Somebody says, uh, Enbis cooking. Yeah, Enbis. Uh, Nbby. Oh, nice. Up 5%. Is Cororeweave joining for the rally or no? Yeah, it is. Coreweave and Enbis are moving a bit today. Very nice. Very nice. Uh, Marll's doing very nicely. We're almost at the 266 line. We were literally in no man's land this morning.

That's impressive. That's very good. Uh, so Google's up another percent. Sand. There it is. SanDisk and Micron. Wow. Nice. Well, yesterday SanDisk lost this line here. This uh 1840 line here. Very interesting. Somebody says their search sucks too. If I enter a specific product number, they will serve me something similar. So frustrating. Right. But I think the idea there is what they're trying to do is they're trying to get more ad placements in.

Right? Because look, the ads are not just at the top. You would think this is the ad side. It's not. Okay, we have ads here. Okay, fine. We could see it's sponsored. Then we go past it. These don't appear to be ads. It's so hard to tell these days. These don't appear to be ads. I don't know. I mean, yeah, these are probably ads. That one says sponsored. Then we go back to this is a whole three set right here of sponsored.

And then look at this. I have these random three over here. Two not sponsored. And then these three are sponsored. Bro, this company prints money off of putting 50,000 ads in these results. Uh, I mean, look, sponsored, sponsored, not sponsored over here. It's like they're doing the 2 by3 now. It's three no ads, then two ads. Then you go over here and it's two ads and then three no ads. But I don't know. This one says see options.

Maybe it's because I have the option of having an ad. [laughter] I don't know. I I can't know. The point is, I would much rather an agent with serious patience go in there and calculate what's the best deal. Give me the best quality product for the best value. And I don't I don't care. They're freaking markers. I just don't want to get ripped off. And an agent is perfect for that. Now, I wonder if you could like command print the page.

Yeah, I guess you could. You could command P, but but I don't know. Then it like compresses some of the info here. I don't know if you're actually getting Am I getting rows of three now instead of five? I I don't know. It just I think they've purposely designed this to make it so you have to be here. Whatever. So, uh over time, pressure by consumer services with modes will provide access to these agents. Yeah, I agree with this.

Uh and I I don't think there's anything wrong with it. If people want their bottom lines, let them have their bottom freaking lines. Same fights with news publishers. For that reason, big companies, including Meta, have an incentive to agree on guidelines for how agents can operate. Blah blah blah. Don't hold your breath for a quick agreement. Blah blah blah. Whatever. [clears throat] Command F sponsored. [laughter] Yeah.

Do they always say it's sponsored? No. Or do they say say sometimes partner? No, maybe they do say sponsor, you know, and then you could sort of ignore just ignore all the the highlighted ones, I suppose, huh? But see, then here, featured from Amazon brands. I mean, I guess they're sponsoring their own thing. And see, look at this. Look at that. Then they hide sponsored up here. And then, so does that mean this whole row is technically sponsored?

Because because that one says sponsored right there and it sort of applies to the whole row. I don't know. I can't tell cuz here they're all individually sponsored. Here it appears to apply to the whole damn row. What is this? They purposely do this crap. Uh it drives me nuts. Anyway, all right. So, where are we? Uh still a tenuous day. We did expect today to be tenuous. I did not expect Lanar to be up 5% on the day.

Okay, didn't uh we did talk a lot about LAR this morning, but I didn't expect it to end up having a 5% day. I will say that transparently now we are barely holding on to 227 on Nvidia here. This really needs to put the pants on. Come on, Nvidia. Meta holding up and I think Apple's actually holding up as well today. Let's see here. APL. No, not really. You got 27 basis points on it. But all right, let's go try uh some of the other fake news.

Everybody's favorite fake news. They lie. All they do is lie. Whatever. China's control of rare earths looms. Yeah, whatever. We'll see what comes out of it. Usually nothing comes out of these when it comes to China and Trump. Uh, let's see here. AOC, life doesn't wait for you to be ready. H, whatever. Oh, man. Could you imagine President AOC? Oh, I I don't I don't know. I don't know. Okay. I' I'd rather have President Sarah Eisen.

Can we have Sarah Eisen be the president? That That I could stand behind. Uh, let's run a poll. Let's go see. Would you vote for AOC for president? All right, I'm running the poll. I am afraid of these results. All right, I'm running the poll. So, whoever actually feels like voting, go for it. All right, this is boring. Maybe Trump was right about the times. There's nothing here for us. Let's try over here. $ 1.5 billion dollar concession that unlocked the Paramount deal.

What? The government extorted money out of a private enterprise to to get them past uh uh regulatory, you know, oversight. No. Bill PE scrutinizes mortgages of political rivals. Whatever. This is old freaking news, man. Watch the apartment loans for discounts on apartments. We did talk about that yesterday. Uh, let's see. Obamacare enrollments, a rocket supply crunch is making it harder to catch a ride to space. Uh-huh.

Well, let's give SpaceX a little bit of a moat, huh? Ron's president gets the rare opportunity to make his case to the world. Expected to speak at the UN tomorrow. Oh, interesting. So, I mean, he should be there today trying to shake hands. Although, you know, if you saw the president of Iran, would you be shaking his hand, right? I don't know. Like, what does that what does that signal? Uh, wow. There's nothing in the journal either.

Everybody's just waiting for something to happen. [clears throat] All right, let's see. Oil falls to $98. Saudi Arabia signals east. Oh, let's look at this. And then let's see if Alazer picked up on those attacks in Hormuz. Oh, shoot. I didn't know it was still sitting on this channel. Sorry. You didn't miss anything on the screen. There was nothing really here. Iran cults car cowardly Gutierrez. Trump Putin should settle the war.

Okay, that's nothing. So, we still don't have anything here. How about the FT? Yeah, let's look at this pipeline news. Oil prices fell to its twoe low as Saudi Arabia signaled it was ready to restart the East West pipeline. Well, that's great. Price was at 91 bucks. Tuesday confirmed that the pipeline would resume flows by the end of the week. Oh, that's actually way sooner than expected. You know, we were originally told that was going to be five to six weeks, right?

And uh this is this is way better than expected. Let's let's jot that down. I like that. Uh Iran Saudi update. Uh Iranian president speaks tomorrow. Iranian president speaks at UN tomorrow. Saudi east west pipeline should be up by end of week. Uh we were last told it would take 5 to 6 weeks. So this is about two. So how whatever they did to bypass the damage that's fantastic for oil prices. end of week. Cite that. Send it.

Okay, that's very good. I like that. Let's [clears throat] see. Traders have been selling oil and speculation about the meeting. Speaking to Fox News, Trump said he would be open to some to probably open to meeting Iran's president. Let's see here. uh if only a quarter of the flows through the pipeline were restored, no extra oil would be exported. Since the flows will be used in Saudi Arabia's refineries, if 40% of the capacity is restored, there will be additional there will be an additional 1 million barrels per day.

Uh interesting. That's kind of interesting. So, if only a quarter, let's let's write that down. That's See, it's those little kind of notes that I like writing down because they're kind of hard to ever find again. So if 25% restored, that would enable Saudi refining, 40% restored would introduce 1 million more barrels per day to global markets. Okay. Total capacity is 7 million barrels a day. Okay. [clears throat] Wah wah wah.

Okay. Okay, that's not bad. What about the economists? Let's see if they have anything for it. Well, did we finish the FT? Kremlinbacked scheme moved 6.9 billion through global banks. Of course, AI staff complain over mental toll of fears of threat to society. Oh, whatever. Okay, let's see. London schools are running out of children. How do you run out of children? Hackne Eastan and two empty schools are due to become temporary accommodations for the homeless.

Empty schools. How are you guys running out of school? 90 schools have closed since 2019. I'm somewhat surprised. Birth rates have fallen. Families have moved elsewhere due to Brexit, COVID, and high housing costs. Oh, wow. That's very interesting. Sharpest decline in the country. 22% declines. Really? What's happening? These are uh just sort of surrounding suburbs over here. This is to the north. Minus 22%. Wow. So, people are moving out of uh of of the central area, it seems.

Primary schools have closed. One problem. Uh, they have to apply. Whatever. Crap. Whatever. 90 schools have closed. That's actually a lot of school closures. Complain schools which don't have power to. Okay, fine. Blah blah blah. Huh. Yeah, that's interesting. Uh, underlying trends show no signs of abating. The fertility rate has fallen by a third since 2012. 1.39 per per woman. Wow. That's actually low. Okay. Okay. All right.

Let's go. So then we've got over here, Russia's gray zone attacks on Europe. We're growing more brazen. Okay. What do we got here on poll? Oh, I'm actually surprised. 25%. So about out of the 410 votes here, we got about 100 yeses. Okay. Okay. All right. That is about double what I expected. I would have expected closer to about 12% would have gone for a yes. Uh so I'm actually surprised by that. [clears throat] Okay, what's else?

New battery. Boring. Australia's giant data center. Boom. That building looks great. Oh, Trump says China's opening up. American bosses disagree. Whatever. This is boring. All right, we're going to have to go look at what the suits are saying cuz man, some of this is just boring. Although Donald Trump is supposed to talk soon. Let's go see if there uh what what the juice is over the last few days. There is definitely some good commentary we'll be able to look at.

All right. Uh, and while I pull that up, let's also take a quick look and just see if Nvidia is holding the line or not. Where is the darn thing? Nvidia. Oh, whoa, look at that. It's so glorious. [laughter] It's so perfect. This is where people on the channel will say things like, "Kevin, you put the line there after the fact. There's no way your line was so perfect. Okay. Okay. I know. That's pretty good. That's good.

That's That's exciting. All right. So, let's see. Let's pop open some other stuff. SpaceX. The Q's Q's are pushing. Keep pushing here. How about Marll's got 2% on it. What about Meta? Meta's another 1.4. Wow, that is excellent. So, I love to see this. Okay. All right. Let's listen to Sarah for a moment here while I pull this next thing up. >> Assembly and his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week. Let's get the geopolitical setup with Stephan Celig, former under secretary of commerce for international trade under administration, a managing partner at Bridge Park Adviserss.

Welcome back. Great to have you. >> So, first of all, what do you expect to hear? What do you what will you be listening for in President Trump's speech this morning? >> You know, look, the ANGA speech, I think, will be obviously broader than what he is going to talk about um with President Xi, which I think is actually the big meeting. Um, I think the youngest speech will deal with what's going on with prices and is a little bit going to be addressed to a domestic audience going into the midterms.

The she meeting are going to cover what I think you guys have been talking about all morning, which are the big topics of what I'm calling the four T's, technology, trade, um, taiwan, and all of those are going to be covered with um, she and will be important topics. I just don't think Sarah that there's going to be a major breakthrough that we're >> I was going to say where can is there any common ground on any of those topics >> you know frankly I don't see it on tech which is the whole AI conversation we don'tly have domestic agreement about how we want to proceed let alone how we're going to proceed with China with Iran um we're going to obviously ask for his help to some degree to help open up the straits to lower oil prices etc I don't think it's really in his interest or in China's interest to really be helpful to us and it's not in their interest not because they don't want Tehran to have a nuke.

They don't but they also want us to be mired in a different part of the world and expending military capital, financial capital, uh intellectual capital um in something that really has nothing to do with them. And as Napoleon said, it's awfully helpful to have, you know, your enemies not be distracted when they're making mistakes. And that's what's going to happen, you know, there on trade as you kind of talked about.

These are systemic issues to the Chinese economy. And just because >> Yeah. But nothing ever comes out of them meeting over here at the UN, man. It's always It always ends up being some back channel meeting that, you know, we only hear about after the fact. So, you know, don't overhype this G United Nations crap. The only thing we care about here at the United Nations is Iran. That's it. Yeah, I I maintain optimism on Iran and I think that lifts broader markets.

But anyway, what do we air bender? No, don't make air bender reference. No, no. The last air bender. Oh, NO. NO. You can't unsee it though. Now that's the problem, you know. That's uh No. Ah, he's going for Okay. All right. You people. You people are evil. All right. What do we got here? I haven't had a particularly strong directional bias as of late. Yeah, I don't care. Give me some facts, buddy. Kevin W did exactly what he needed to do.

Uh, so here's the pattern of fact. Hopes of a one anddone tighten tightening cycle were vanquished last week but in response financial conditions actually got easier. I mean this is true the stock market went up but that's your measure of financial uh conditions for an avoidance of doubt. Any tightening cycle only needs to be taken seriously uh especially regarding uh interest rate sensitives such as the low-end consumer housing blah blah blah.

Yes. Okay. I admit wrestling with the last paragraph which is this. The bond market has already done the work. Oh yeah, that that was sort of a thesis, but we're like, "Yeah, no, they're they're gonna they're gonna hike, baby. They're gonna hike." And they did. I made wrestling last paragraph. Let's see here. Uh let's see. We hit this point on the very front end of the conversation. Boring. I'll register one more item on today's setup.

General observation with regard to trading pricing sentiment. S&P 500 is tracking its fourth straight year of double-digit returns. Market breath has improved. Certain popular parts of the market have had an excellent year with stocks up 68%. Okay, I'm not saying that the past three months have been easy. If anything, the yards have been hard beneath the hood of the index. Rather, the point I'm trying to make is this has been good for stock operators.

The levered community is notably wary right now. Oh, this see yeah I was touching on this a little bit in our course member liveream but net exposure across the full uh uh you know prime book over at Goldman and or private bank book. Oh this is their private bank book. Ah that's even better. So Goldman private bank 34th uh percentile for leverage. That's huge. uh indicates uh yesterday was not a short squeeze, right?

That's that's critical. Now, still obviously have to hold the line today, which I think Nvidia is doing. Okay. Yeah, it's trying to it's really trying to respect that line, but I don't think that piece on discounting did any software any favors. I mean, you got Amazon and Microsoft having a uh they're going down on this, too. The Q's Q's are holding. Nice. 745. We're almost at alltime highs. This is incredible. Anyway, we'll keep going here.

So, that's a very important note. Let's write that down. 34th percentile. Very useful. Okay. So, then we've got for the sake of balance, we should spend a minute on the challenges to US equities. We'll start with the biggest inconvenient truth. Energy prices continue to rise given that 70% of GDP is conso composed of consumption. This is this is a very dated line. IMO this is highly dated when 55% of S&P 500 uh earnings is AI related.

Uh but is that in banking? Let me see. It's it's a law. Maybe maybe that might be too much. that could be on mergers and acquisitions and and uh and just un bank underwriting financing basically. That's that's what that is. Uh so those are like Yeah, I shouldn't say that. So let's adjust that. Um underwriting 55% of current uh debt and equity underwriting and M&A fees are coming from AI. IMO um there's a good shot more of the economy is being held up by AI now than consumer consumption.

So that because that's this has been said even before AI, right? 70% was the pre AI number. We don't know really what the number currently is. Depending on how one piles on their craft, I'd argue the last two paragraphs have direct implication for the portfolio construction. What is this? Higher interest rates, higher commodities. Right here, households become increasingly infuriated. That's probably not a green one.

There we go. So, depending on how one piles or craft, I'd argue last two two paragraphs have implications for portfolio constructions. Trading commodities, higher rates, a worry about the back end even as the curve has flattened. Footing on the election will remain tricky, but I expect the S&P 500 will be year higher at the end of the year. Well, that's nice. I agree. Bigger picture, primary trends in US equities remained high and same can be said of interest rates and commodities.

Bolt on a few more short points for the road. Superb earnings growth is set to decelerate but not collapse. Right. Well, a lot of earnings have also been propelled. Some earnings growth has come from great uh progress or uh from great returns on equity investments. [clears throat] Okay. Okay. Fed rates high Fed hikes will slow the rally, not kill the rally. They are still bullish on gold. 5,400 bucks. Still bullish on gold.

I'll make a little note on that. So the preface, I missed the note. Let's see. Growth from financing requirements and market cap. Okay, fine. Boring. Last week outlier events from both sides of the distribution. Fine. TMT conference. Okay, let's uh let's [clears throat] put together with this some notes on the Fed. Let's see. There is I tweeted this one yesterday. Uh the balance sheet sucketing. Yeah, that was right here. $1.5 trillion comes off of the Fed balance sheet starting next quarter.

Fewer bond purchases equals higher yields. back door to tighten financial conditions. Uh so this is still part of their MO and and this will remain part of the Fed's MO is is less money printing essentially. That's understandable. Let's go see what we know. We had Goulsby's comments yesterday. And then in addition to Goulsby, let's see that was Let's look at my recents. Nope. and then take a quick listen here. Make >> sure we're not missing anything. >> After those meetings at the working level uh with the Chinese over the weekend, he described this AI safety dialogue that they're trying to set up as something like an incident hotline that if something did go wrong, the two countries would at least be communicating with each other about what that was.

So, it wouldn't necessarily even be putting guard rails in place. That's a word we have used [clears throat] heard the president use at some different points in time. Not even going so far, of course, as regulation either, but at least communication. And Bessant spoke about more transparency and less opaqueness between these two superpowers on AI would be a good thing. So, we'll see if we get more meat on the bones of that when the two leaders sit down on Thursday.

But, you know, from officials that I've spoken with and analysts that I've spoken with as well, watching that meeting with President Xi, the Chinese seem to be interested in AI only as much as it benefits them. They're not very interested in regulation either. The same way that the president seems to be suggesting the US's posture is at this point. So not expecting too much, but maybe at least some sort of a dialogue. >> I'm curious, Stephan, what you think about the political dynamic of AI in this country, you know, whether I mean because there is bipartisan resistance to things like data center builds.

We talked about that this morning. And nobody seems to know exactly how to regulate it. There's some proposals out there, but which party do you think has the upper hand here, if at all? you know, I think um I'm not sure that I could describe to you actually a coach and coherent policy that is uh from either party um frankly or agreement within within either party. You know, I think um for sure, at least in my opinion, this is something that you know presents a real potential danger um and is going to need some sort of um certainly domestic regulation if not some sort of international regulation generally.

[clears throat] >> This is boring. All right, let's go look at um what else is cooking here because that was nothing. All right, so [clears throat] let's talk about this warning, which we started touching on yesterday, but we didn't finish. And if Trump gets to yapping, we can jump on over to it, and we'll also be monitoring the newswires. Uh but let's get uh let's get into this. I don't like this in the background. Get rid of that.

All right, here we go. Goldman Sachs just broke down exactly what risks the S&P 500 has for well let's just say the rest of this bubble and what we're up against. This takes a little bit of a cautious optimistic but also there are some notes of bearishness in here. So let's take a look and go through the details of what are they basically saying. The big argument is that the S&P 500 is, in their words, over earning. In other words, the earnings growth that we have seen has been propped up by too many other factors.

Let's take a look at this. First, they argue that the S&P 500's forward PE sits at 19, which is in line with its 10-year average, but the uh trend that we're on in terms of earnings growth has only been exceeded at the height of the dot bubble. So, the way to say this, if you smooth out longer term earnings trends, then the way you look at this is the only time Oh, of course, now Donald Trump wants to talk. It's perfect timing.

Thank you very much, Mr. President, Mr. Secretary General, First Lady of the United States, distinguished delegates, ambassadors, and fellow leaders. It's my great honor to welcome the world to America as we celebrate 250 years of glorious freedom and independence. Two and a half centuries after the cause of liberty found its home on this continent, I can report to you with pride that America is back and our country is stronger today than ever before.

Our economy is the envy of the world. Our military is the most powerful on earth. Our technology is second to none. And we are leading in virtually everything. Our energy is fueling the planet. America is rising. Our nation is growing. Our power is expanding. Our country is doing better than ever before. And our future is very, very bright. Since I took office, we have created more than 1 million new private sector jobs.

And more Americans are working today by far than ever before. Last week, it was announced that the poverty rate has reached its lowest level in American history. We lifted 1.5 million Americans out of poverty last year alone, another record. The AfricanAmerican and Hispanic American poverty rates are at all-time lows. Real household incomes for Americans have soared to the highest level in history, 87,000 on average, surpassing the prior record that I set in my first term.

From day one, my administration has worked to remove every single unnecessary regulation and obstacle to doing business in America. We passed the largest tax cuts in American history. And as a result, more money is being invested in the United States right now than has ever been invested in any nation anywhere in the world. US stock markets have set 80 all-time records. And that's just in the last 12 months. We've secured commitments for $21 trillion in new investments from all over the planet, compared to less than $1 trillion in four years in the previous administration.

Two years ago, our country was dead. And now we have the hottest country anywhere in the world. Before I took office, we had the worst and most dangerous border on Earth. And now we have the most secure border in American history. Nobody comes in unless they're invited, unless they have permission. In the past 16 months, zero illegal aliens have been admitted to the United States. And that's done by some very sophisticated people.

It's not done by the Trump administration. Zero. As a result, last year we achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded. The murder rate has plummeted to its lowest level in 125 years since the year 1900. I sent our crime busters into Memphis, Tennessee, and New Orleans, Louisiana, and crime in each place went down over 80% and it'll go down still further. More importantly, when I arrived on January 20th of last year in Washington DC, it was riddled with crime.

And now crime is down 87%. And we're going for 100. Tourism is if if you take a look and I guess a lot of you have been there, tourism is thriving. Restaurants are bustling and people are proud of our nation's capital. They're proud like never before. We've invested more money in the United States military in the past 12 months than ever before. And this term it'll be $1.5 trillion. We inherited a dark age of America from the previous administration and we turned it into the golden age of America.

The entire world is being lifted by the wealth, strength, spirit and momentum of a newly energized and a very powerful United States of America. And just as we moved quickly to address problems we inherited at home, we have acted with decisiveness and speed to reshape the world stage and solve problems that have plagued us for far too long. every leader in this room and your great leaders, many great leaders. I know all of you very well, but they know that given only a short time to make this world better, safer, and more prosperous for our children, for the people on earth, we have to take advantage of it.

As president of the most extraordinary nation in history, I have no interest in leaving dangers to grow for another day. I do not believe in letting problems fester. They only become harder to solve. So while others have talked, I have acted. While others have spoken of peace, I have made peace. While others have ignored threats, I have confronted them. While others have talked of courage, America has shown it. While others have promised strength, I have used it to make America the most powerful country in the world.

Working with many nations in this room, we are solving decades of intractable challenges and we are settling years of unfinished business and we're doing it well. There is no better example of a danger that was allowed to gather strength at the world's peril than the number one sponsor of terror. >> Oh, here comes Iran. >> Islamic Republic of Iran. For 51 years, the fanatical Iranian regime has ruled by bloodshed and mass murder, spreading death and carnage and chaos across the entire Middle East and beyond.

They were the bully of the Middle East, but they are the bully no more. From the first day I entered the political arena, I've been unwavering. I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Upon taking office last year, [laughter] I immediately opened negotiations with Iran and offered them full economic cooperation in exchange for ending their nuclear program and support for terror. But they refused. They absolutely refused.

That was a big mistake. Then in Operation Midnight Hammer, the US military obliterated their nuclear program beneath mountains of rubble. And again, I urged Iran to make a deal. And again, they refused. The regime continued building a vast missile and drone stockpile that threatened the security of every American service member in the region and everyone else in the region. They also made a missile that was capable of hitting Europe and they were very proud of it.

I hope the Europeans realize that Iran's goal was to complete their mad dash to a nuclear bomb from behind this conventional ballistic missile shield. If they had succeeded, that wicked regime would have been free to spread terror and death forever, knowing that any attempt to stop them would face an arsenal of nuclear annihilation. In America, we just marked the 25th anniversary of the worst terror attack in history, September 11th, which killed 3,000 people just a few miles from here.

It's an unbelievably terrible time. In two weeks, we will mark the third anniversary of the October 7th attack in Israel, where terrorists funded by Iran tortured, mutilated, and killed 1,200 very innocent civilians, including dozens of Americans and many babies. Babies. Little tiny, beautiful babies. Iran Supreme Leader celebrated that massacre and called it a service to humanity. The same regime slaughtered over 72,000 of its citizens this year.

Recently, 10,000 were killed for protesting. Just imagine such a vile regime were ever empowered to carry out large-scale terror attacks from behind a nuclear shield. This was the reality we had to confront. A reality that far too many preferred to ignore. They all ignored it. Many presidents and many others just wanted to ignore it. They were unwilling to do anything about it. But they knew the problem. After giving Iran every chance for a deal, I took action to ensure that neither the United States nor any nation at all would ever have to face such a nightmare, such a catastrophic problem.

As a result of Operation Epic Fury, all 159 ships of their Navy are now lying at the bottom of the sea. Likewise, their air force is gone. Their radar is gone. Their anti-aircraft equipment is gone. Their missiles and drone manufacturing capacity is almost gone. Their economy is gone. The only thing that isn't gone is inflation, which is destroying their country and is now well over 300%. Yet, even after we agreed to a ceasefire for nuclear discussions, Iran promptly violated it with brazen acts of terrorism against civilian ships from other countries.

I want to thank the UN Security Council for voting overwhelmingly to pass a resolution condemning Iran's despicable terrorist attacks on commercial shipping. Thank you very much. That resolution, I'm pleased to say, received more co-sponsors from UN member nations than any Security Council resolution in history. That's something. Now we must be equally united in maintaining pressure. The United States Navy has recently escorted more than 1 billion barrels of oil out of the straight of Hormos and more oil is flowing than at any point since the start of the war.

We're taking 22, 25, 30, 32, and 37 ships out respectively every single day, every single night. But I have a big decision to make. Will a deal be made with Iran that lets them rebuild and create a far greater country than it ever was before, maybe one of the greatest in the Middle East or even the world? Or do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly, never giving them a chance to kill and destroy people and countries again?

Do I drive them into hell [laughter] with no chance of survival and no hope >> of future greatness or generations >> awkward >> that I believe will make a deal >> after the election >> because it doesn't make sense for them not to >> after the election >> waiting to see how I do in the midterm election. What they don't realize is that I'm not running. I did that already and won in a landslide. We won in a giant landslide and I'll be here for 2 and 1/2 years.

The Republican party is running and I'll be helping them. But I am not running. I gave absolutely no credence and will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran. It doesn't even enter my mind. The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. The cowards and traitors. Thank you. >> Ah, thank you. The cowards and traitors would love to say the United States is low on munitions, but that's not true.

We have more munitions than we could ever possibly even think of using, and we're building them at levels that we have never done before. We are adding to our stock piles faster than we have ever been able to do before. Topofthe- line stuff. In addition, in the very near future, massive munition plants will be opening. There are 18 of them being built by the greatest defense companies in the world. Right now, 18 under construction.

Some of them very quickly will be completed. They're almost there. And that rapid construction will be leading to very rapid deployment of missiles of every type and ammunition of every type. And we'll be able to supply our allies at a much faster rate than we're doing right now. I call on all nations to join us in enforcing the complete economic isolation of Iran until they stop their attacks on commercial shipping, relinquish their nuclear ambitions, and cease their support of terror.

The terrorist regime is behaving badly. He's all alone. >> Not because they are strong and confident, but because they are weak and desperate. If we stand united, we will soon see a world free of the last 51-year menace of Iranian terror and oil prices will come plummeting down even lower than they were at the start of the conflict. And they were very low. In the United States, they were really low. With courage and resolve, anything is possible.

Big changes can happen and happen fast. One year ago when I addressed the great leaders this hall, the war in Gaza was still raging brutally. >> That might be a hint. >> The hostages were still deep in Hamas tunnels and there was no end in sight. It was never going to be resolved. But here on the sidelines of the General Assembly, we took the first steps. It changed everything. A few weeks later, we ended the war in Gaza, saving untold thousands of lives.

We also brought home all remaining hostages, both living and dead. Every single one of them. Thank you. >> That's a hint. The Gaza deal was last year at the UN. >> Everyone thought it was a miracle that we were able to do so and people celebrated in the streets. I want to express my gratitude to the United Nations Security Council for their unanimous endorsement of our 20point Gaza Peace Plan and for officially approving the board of peace.

Going to be a very significant group of people. Nearly 30 countries have joined the board which I am honored to chair and we're thankful to many of those member nations for contributing billions and billions of dollars to relief. And it goes right to the rebuilding and relief of Morocco, Bahrain. These are the countries that gave Qatar, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and many more. That money goes right to the source, right where they need it, and they desperately need it.

And those countries are very have been very generous. and others also are stepping up at numbers that nobody would even believe because they want to see [clears throat] people live. They want to see the humanitarian thing happen properly. They've been fantastic. I also want to thank those who have committed troops, police, and training to help stabilize Gaza, including Indonesia, Morocco, Albania, Kosovo, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Jordan, and more.

Since I took office, it has been my great honor to settle eight wars and in so doing become friendly with the leaders of many of those countries. It was a great honor to do it. Numerous of these wars have gone on for many years and even decades. The reason I was able to make these settlements was the use of my relationships. Very special relationships to this day. Very, very special. trade, the use of tariffs and the threat of tariffs and various other reasons depending on the country.

Among them terms of settlement, Cambodia and Thailand, Kosovo and Serbia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda, Pakistan and India, Armenia and Azeraijan, and of course the war in Gaza, which as I stated previously includes the return of all hostages, both living and Almost every one of these countries wrote me a letter of thank you. The prime minister of Pakistan, terrific man, said that Donald Trump was responsible for saving 30 million lives and probably many more than that.

The president of Azeraijan said President Trump in six months did a miracle. It was an absolute miracle that nobody thought could be done. The prime minister of Armenia said, "This breakthrough would simply not have been possible without President Trump's personal engagement and his resolute commitment to peace." A president of Cambodia stated, "President Trump's extraordinary statesmanship, marked by his commitment to resolving conflicts and preventing catastrophic wars through visionary, innovative diplomacy, was most recently demonstrated in his decisive role in brokering an immediate and unconditional ceasefire and peace.

This timely intervention, which averted a potentially devastating conflict, was vital in preventing a great loss of lives and paved the way towards the restoration of peace. The president of Rwanda said, "When President Trump saw the opportunity to contribute to peace, he immediately took it. This conflict has lasted for 32 years. Millions and millions of people have died. We got it settled. We've seen countless mediations and efforts, but none has succeeded in resolving the underlying issues.

President Donald Trump issued a new and effective statement that really has brought great peace and space through really a breakthrough that we thought was impossible. We're working very closely with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine and we will get that one done. It's going to happen, I think, more quickly than people understand. They've they've had it. 25,000 young people, mostly soldiers a month are dying. 25,000 a month.

And I look at those battlefield pictures and I I really don't want to see them anymore. It's so horrible to see. >> 25,000 a month. Both sides. In addition, the United States and Iran will definitely get it done. We will get it done one way or the other. It's going to be done. It's going to be done fast. A lot has happened since we last gathered here one year ago. In January, at my direction, the United States military conducted a massive military operation penetrating deep into the Venezuelan capital, Caracus. descended on a heavily defended and fortified military base, one that was supposed to be flawless against attack and arrested the outlaw dictator, real criminal Nicholas Maduro.

Since that day, hundreds of Venezuelan political prisoners have been freed. They've let them out of jails. and we're working closely with the leaders of Venezuela to forge a much better future for the Venezuelan people. Last month, we signed the largest oil deal in history, covering 65 billion barrels of oil, which will benefit both Venezuela and the United States enormously and help drive down the cost of energy all over the world.

And that is starting to perk right now. It's coming out. The biggest oil companies in the world are going in and the numbers are absolutely incredible. When you add the United States and Venezuela together, we have more than 60% of the oil in the world. So, it's perhaps the biggest deal. It was a war, but it's perhaps the biggest deal ever made to the victor along the spoils. You've all heard that our actions in Venezuela are proof that the United States will no longer permit threats to America, to gain a foothold anywhere in the Western Hemisphere.

And if necessary, we will use our unmatched military might to secure the vital national interests of the United States. As you know, Venezuela had the finest equipment in the world from other countries. And guess what? It didn't work. Didn't even come close to working for decades. Other administrations allowed much of this region to be dominated by vicious gangs and bloodthirsty drug cartels, destabilized by uncontrolled migration and infiltrated by hostile foreign adversaries, foreign sick, demented adversaries.

But not anymore. We are reasserting American power, including American military power where necessary in our region and around the world to create a safer future for all of us. It's happening and it's happening quickly. Upon taking office, I designated the drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and unleashed the United States armed forces to eliminate them. The cartels are the ISIS of the Western Hemisphere.

Not good people. They're enemies at war with civilization using murder, rape, torture, and extortion as instruments of terror. Like ISIS, they should be killed, exiled, or detained as enemy combatants without the possibility of release, which is what we're doing. To that end, the United States has carried out dozens of strikes on cartel drug boats, destroying 97% of the drugs coming into the ocean and sea. You've seen it.

They disappear very quickly. And we're down 90%. They're down 97%. Nobody thought that was possible. It was a big source of delivery. And three months ago, we terminated the leader of the Venezuelan gang, Tren dear. Mexico is the epicenter of the cartel violence. Unfortunately, it's unacceptable for the United States to share a 2,000mi border with a territory controlled by enemy cartels. So, Mexico must reclaim control of its soil from the enemies of humanity.

My administration is also seeking a fundamental change and the situation in Cuba where the communist regime is under great pressure, the biggest pressure they've ever been under. It's an absolutely failed state. It's failing like never before and it will fall. Marco Rubio is handling a negotiation. He's deep into negotiations with Cuba. Let's see what happens. will not allow a haven for foreign adversaries to threaten America >> on our own doorstep.

It's right at our doorstep. The Cuban >> Was that Cuba that just dipped? >> Spent decades coordinating with the left-wing radicals and >> yeah, Cuban delegation just walked out >> here in the United States. As our State Department has detailed, they've cultivated ties to subversive and radical groups such as the Communist Party USA, Antifa, and the Democrat Socialists of America. Communism will never be coming to America, but freedom will be coming to Cuba, and safety and security will be coming to Mexico.

I'm very proud to tell you, we have a very good relationship with the Mexican government. We've made great strides, very great strides with Mexico. They don't want the cartels either. And when that day comes, this entire region will be a better, safer, and more beautiful place in which to live and thrive. As I announced just days ago, the United States has also reached an unprecedented agreement regarding the northern frontier of North America, the large and strategically vital piece of land known as Greenland.

This agreement made with the Kingdom of Denmark, an incredible, beautiful country, and the Greenland people itself, gives the United States permanent control over security and all other needs on that territory. We will have the complete ability to do what is necessary to defend the American continent and also Europe and other places. No US adversary will ever be permitted to establish a military presence in Greenland anymore or make sensitive investments there without our express written approval.

We will immediately begin the process of developing a large military presence in the appropriate locations. We will be building two very major military bases. This agreement will be signed later today and I look forward to working with the wonderful people of Denmark and Greenland. It's been a great experience, amazing experience and we've really formed a bond in doing it by expanding America's footprint in the Arctic and North Atlantic.

This deal also protects Europe in addition to America and greatly protects them. [clears throat] It also very much enhances NATO with who has a great leader and Mark I know you're in the audience and you are indeed a great leader Mark Rut which is now growing stronger than ever before. NATO is doing things that nobody thought they would be able to do including raising their number to 5% from 2% number that's a protection that's going to be much greater protection for them.

We continue to seek and end the disastrous war between Russia and Ukraine, which is killing, as I said, thousands and thousands of people every month. Last week, in honor of Senator Lindsey Graeme, I signed a powerful new law passed by Congress, providing me with enormous new tariff authorities, and if necessary, I will have to use them. It's time to stop the killing. I also want to recognize the extraordinary work of our great first lady who has secured the safe return of many displaced Ukrainian and Russian children back home to their families.

So many. Thank you very much, first lady. Thank you very much. Where is our first lady? Where is she? She's around here someplace. I can you imagine? I can't see the first lady. Thank you very much, first lady. great job. She worked so hard on it. This year, she also became the only first lady in history to preside over a meeting of the UN Security Council. And she did it very well. And today, she's hosting a gathering of fostering the future together, which has nearly 60 members to help improve the lives of young people all over the world.

So, Melania, thank you very much. Great job. Great job you're doing. Led by Ambassador Michael Waltz here at the United Nations, we have also worked with many countries in this room to implement the most sweeping UN reforms in history. We cut the UN budget for the first time ever, slashing it by 15% in 2026 and eliminated more than 4,000 positions from the UN bureaucracy. The United Nations has great great potential.

I've said that for many years. But it must stop imposing the far-left agenda of globalist bureaucrats who nobody ever elected. Last year, my administration was forced to intervene to stop an obscure UN body, the International Maritime Organization, from secretly establishing a first ever global carbon tax, very expensive tax to raise international shipping costs by 10 to 20% and maybe more than that. There is no global government and while I'm president there will be no global taxes.

The United States is equally opposed to the outofcontrol Thank you. Thank you very much. The United States is equally opposed to the outofcontrol institution known as the International Criminal Court. We will never allow US service members or anyone else to be investigated or given show trials by an anti-American tribunal with no jurisdiction over us. You're an evil group of people. I call on all nations that are members of the IC to officially resign from this rogue institution immediately.

It is equally unacceptable that with all the genuine atrocities in the world, the UN's top human rights officials spend their time criticizing the United States for protecting our children from transgender mutilization and transgender insanity and enforcing our immigration laws. What they do is unbelievable what they do. It's transgender mutilization of our children. The craven hypocrites of human rights council have little to say about the persecution of Chris Christians.

I mean, Christians are being persecuted all over the world. It's not even believable. I never thought I'd say it, but it's been happening for a long time. So, this is persecution of Christians who are the crimes of the world's most repressive regimes. Yet, they want America to open up our borders to gangs and criminals from world's most dangerous places. They want the worst people to come in from the worst places on earth.

And we don't do it anymore. We did do it, but we don't do that anymore. It is deeply ironic that the United Nations has an entire institution, the UNESCO group of people and countries devoted to protecting cultural heritage. Yet with their ceaseless promotion of mass migration, these globalists are actively destroying the greatest cultures and most extraordinary heritage in all of history. There is no human right to illegal immigration, but there is a right to remain a sovereign nation, and we want to remain a sovereign nation, and so should you.

The United States also totally rejects any attempt to construct a globalist scheme to control for the artificial intelligence being spoken of so much now here and after officially called super intelligence changing the name and that the use of the word artificial makes intelligence fake. It makes it sound fake and it is not fake. It's actually amazing. >> AI is not fake news. as I'll have you know >> is exactly the opposite of what it purports >> from this point forward all of United States documents and hopefully the world's will be changed to use the much more accurate term super as opposed to artificial so it's super intelligence in other words welcome to the new world of super intelligence- SI let's see if that goes it sounds much [laughter] better.

It is much better and it's much more accurate. >> Let's see if I have any power. >> Maybe I do and maybe I don't. We're going to find out pretty soon. >> Super intelligence. Every major new technology brings challenges. And super intelligence is no exception. Yet the very same people who said we'll all be dead in 12 years because of global warming. A name since reborn to climate change because the planet was cooling, not warming. and nobody was dead.

These are the same people that are now saying that AI is going to kill us all, that robots are going to attack us, and that everything is going to be a total disaster. Same group of people. This is the group that came up with the Russia Russia Russia hoax, the Ukraine Ukraine Ukraine hoax, climate change, open borders. Whoever wins AI, you have to remember this. And now I say, whoever wins SI, whoever wins super intelligent wins >> wins over China by a lot and everyone else.

And >> we're going to keep it that way. We're going to keep it very, very straight and very strong. I'm not going to stifle growth of something that will be bigger than the industrial revolution. and many say bigger than the industrial revolution or the internet itself and we will be very careful and that's why we have a department of justice that we've already used it having to do with this very subject and used it very powerfully everything worked out very well and very quickly and other law enforcement bodies that will re things in if we have to do that but we will only encourage super intelligence we're going to encourage it not reign it in.

We're going to watch it closely through the Department of Justice. The United States leads the world in super intelligence and will continue to do so safely and responsibly. Americans have never been a nation that retreats from a frontier or shrinks from a challenge, no matter how great or how daunting that challenge may be. Freedom was not a gift that Americans won easily after 250 years. and it is not one that we will ever, ever, ever surrender.

It was right here in New York City that George Washington ordered the Declaration of Independence read to his troops in 1776. As they listened to those immortal words, for the first time, the Patriots could see across the waters of New York Harbor to a British invasion fleet, more than 100 ships strong, which had just arrived to crush the course of Liberty, thousands of soldiers getting off those ships. Nobody stood a chance, but we won.

And we won decisively. Those first Americans knew that it is not enough merely to believe in great principles. We must also have the will and the courage and the strength to defend them as we gather in this same city two and a half centuries later to discuss the great events of our time. That is the challenge for every nation in this room. If we go forward strong and united against the enemies of all humanity. If we reject the voices who would have us give in to fear and doubt.

If we refuse to shrink from our duties to our people, then together through bold action, we will make this world far safer and a far better place. We will leave our nations far stronger. We will grow our economies far bigger. And we will not just speak of peace, prosperity, and justice here at the United Nations. We will stand for them all over the world. Together, we will build a future for a people that is brighter, more hopeful, and more magnificent than ever before.

Thank you. God bless the nations of the world, and God bless America. Thank you very much, everybody. >> All right, we have some summarizing to do there. Let's get right on into it. Holy smokes. All right. uh was some of these are going to be some fact checks as well. So uh because I was factecking as we were kind of listening to it. So I'll just kind of give you my point of view on it as well as uh some facts and data.

Well, Donald Trump certainly just left some people speechless at the United Nations talking about the potential for an Iran deal, changing the name of artificial intelligence, bashing the Cubans. So much so that they got up and walked out all right in front of the president of Iran who's sitting there looking like totally shell shocked the whole time. Man, this was a show. Let's break down exactly what Donald Trump said.

So, here's the scoop. Donald Trump just uh moments ago at the United Nations, there's Sarah Eisen by the way, had the following to say. He says that US real household incomes are at the highest level in history. Real is inflation adjusted. This does not break it down by race as there are obviously racial disparities. But he is correct. Real household income in the United States has just hit all-time highs, now surpassing that 2019 peak back when Jerome Powell told us that monetary policy is finally broadly benefiting all Americans.

Donald Trump says then that we have reached the lowest murder rate in history. This uh is a little bit more mixed, but we are on the right trend. First of all, it's worth noting there was this weird bump during COVID. I show this chart which ends in 23 just to show you that we had a bump right after COVID. The murder rate went up. I don't people lost their mind. I don't know how murder was measured here. But anyway, uh the uh NPR PUBLICATION, WHICH DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T LIKE VERY MUCH, NPR actually admits that US murder rate as of June 30th of 26 approaches a record low.

That there were some years in the 1950s that we had a slightly lower murder rate. But it is true that our murder rate has been dropping. The murder rate in 2026 has fallen 18.7% in the first four months of the year. And if that pace continues, we will have the lowest murder rate in history with all violent crime down 6.4%. So he's actually not too off on some of these stats. Uh that's so far so good. Started off good and we got a little we got a little further down the afterwards.

Uh he then talks about Iran. He says that they are the number one state sponsor of terror. And I have to say there was nothing more entertaining than CNBC or, you know, whoever's playing this, maybe it's C-SPAN, cutting to the president of Iran, listening to Donald Trump calling him the bully no more and I will never allow them to have a nuclear weapon and then the convenient cut to the president of Iran. It was pure comedy seeing it happen.

But anyway, Donald Trump says that they hide behind their conventional ballistic missile shield program to enable their nuclear ambitions. Donald Trump actually had a round of applause from the room when he said that he will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon ever. Of course, it's unclear if that was just the United States delegation clapping really loudly. Well, it sounded like it was pretty broad-based. Donald Trump did say that 10,000 died in protests in Iran earlier this year.

This is true. He says that all 150 ships are gone in the Navy of Iran and that the Air Force is gone. Pentagon reports do indicate that these are more than 90% gone. Donald Trump says that missiles and drone manufacturing are almost completely gone. This is a little bit more debated. Iran's production of drones right now is probably being limited by the global economic blockade that's leading to a real severe backup of supplies coming in from uh other countries.

So whether it's Afghanistan or Pakistan or or whatever, it's been very difficult for supplies to actually come into Iran through this economic blockade. So Bessence's economic D-Day is slowly starting to have an effect. But uh Iranian production of drone manufacturing is probably still sitting around the range of 150 to 250 per month inside of Iran. And keep in mind they also have facilities intentionally set up in Russia where they could import drones from Russia or provide them or sell them essentially to the Russians for their fight against Ukraine.

Total production could be as high as 400 to 500 drones per month still. So Donald Trump saying missile and drone production is almost gone. might overstate the fact that they still have quite a bit of drone production and they're really good at sneaking these drones through our defenses, especially since, you know, these cost 20, 30, $40,000 to manufacture, whereas one of our Patriot missiles cost somewhere around $4 million as an interceptor.

Donald Trump of course takes issue with the fact that, oh, you know, our munitions are critically low in these reports. The Pentagon themselves, the Pentagon itself has recently come out to say we are critically low on munitions. Donald Trump hates hearing that because he sees that as sort of us projecting weakness. So he ends up saying that we've got plenty. We've got more than we've ever even want to use. Fine. But that doesn't mean that we're still not substantially lower than where we have been in munitions.

And the latest Department of War uh report has indicated exactly that. That we are low on munitions and frankly our manufacturing capacity is very weak. Donald Trump, rightfully so, is pushing for more manufacturing so we can actually speed up how many munitions we have so we don't end up in a situation like this. Especially since Donald Trump wants to talk tough around the world. And that of course is what led the uh Cuban delegation to bail when you get Donald Trump suggesting, hey, you know, we are going to deal with countries that are terrible and we're going to uh transform them.

We're going to provide freedom to Cuba is what he argued. Just so you have it as a fact check so you don't just have to listen to me. This is straight from the lead inspector general report to Congress uh on what's going on with munitions and the war report. They talk about $33 billion in costs as of just June. That was after the memorandum of misunderstanding. Uh we've got 22 billion expended on munitions, 3.7 on equipment losses. billion.

By the way, this doesn't include how many repairs need to be conducted. We also have uh let's see shortfall right here. Uh this expended munitions. The office of under secretary for acquisition and sustainment said that munitions expenditure has resulted in strategic inventory shortfalls and revealed the industrial base has essential bottlenecks for resupplying these shortfalls. So, you know, it's easy for Donald Trump to argue that, oh, we have more than we would ever use.

Of course, because we're not going to use our last rocket. So, as long as you have more than one rocket, you have more than you would ever use. You could also argue we have 3,000 nuclear warheads, or it's probably closer to 4,000 nuclear warheads. We're not using those. We got a whole stockpile of nuclear warheads that we're not using. But that doesn't mean that we're still not critically low on things like Patriots or cruise missiles, like Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Estimates are that we've blown through over 90% of our Tomahawk cruise missile inventory. given that I mean we we launched hundreds of these in even just the first few weeks of the war in including the strike unfortunately on the school that yes was at the uh northwestern corner of a military base specifically for naval purposes in the straight of Hormuz. Crazy place to put a school but our intelligence definitely flubbed on that one.

We did a whole video breakdown this last weekend about how Palunteer and Pete Hegsth were getting blamed for issues potentially in the Maven software not flagging outdated information and Pete Hegsth for potentially cutting the manual review staff that would otherwise validate these targets before just hitting the red button and relying on AI which of course now Donald Trump says should be called super intelligence or SI or as I like to call it cenor.

Anyway, Donald Trump wants to rebrand AI to SI. I think this is his way of suggesting that, oh, well, you know, people hear AI and then they think it's artificial and therefore it's fake. I don't think artificial is supposed to come across as being fake. I think it's supposed to imply that it's produced by a machine rather than a human. But then again, we also don't say that these are artificial cars when they're manufactured by a robot.

Right? So, like I get his point of view even though he didn't make that robot manufacturing analogy. I think that's the direction of where he's going. Do I think SI is going to catch on like AI? No. But, you know, some people are going to use that in branding super. And I actually think from a branding point of view, I think it works better than AI. Uh like, you know, AI is almost kind of like played out now, right? We've kind of been branding stuff AI for three coming up on four years now.

It's getting a little old. So, maybe this is the new brand, but more than that, this doesn't matter. Donald Trump then regarding a deal on Iran. This is the juicy part that we've kind of all been waiting for. He dangles, in my opinion, the right amount of optimism without giving any cards away. So he says the only thing that's not gone in Iran is inflation because we've basically decimated them. He says he says inflation's at 300%.

The official statistics out of Iran, so the truth is somewhere probably in the middle. The the official statistics out of Iran are that they're facing 69% year-over-year inflation. So it's probably not better than 69%. Is it all the way to 300%? I don't know. But either way, it's bad. Okay. Donald Trump says, "Will a deer deal deal made that lets Iran rebuild and create the greatest country in the Middle East, or do I annihilate them?" Okay, this is back to Donald Trump's sort of OG positioning, which is, hey, let's try to arm wrestle them to threaten annihilation, take them back to the stone ages, destroy their civilization.

Right? These are the exact same phrases Donald Trump has used in the past right before making a deal or Trump always chickens outing tacoing on Iran. So that language to me implies that we actually are trending towards a deal with Iran. And I actually paid specific attention to how he was selling this vision of we could let them rebuild. We can let them be great. We can help them with their infrastructure, their buildout.

Well, you know, we investments into the country. He's basically pre-branding what we heard about from the Wall Street Journal yesterday, which that there is talk about this pact which is an alliance and the acronym works out to pact that would essentially enable $5 billion of infrastructure investments in the Middle East, 5 billion from the United States as a seed fund, 5 billion from other countries, and then potentially more investments opened up into the Iranian uh regime after a deal is made.

This is Donald Trump pitching look how great it could be or I'll annihilate you. This is exactly the kind of language he uses right before making a deal time after time after time. Whether it's memorandum of understanding, whether it's ceasefire, whether it's taco goinging out on their energy infrastructure, whether it's taco goinging out on sending him to the stone age, he's done it many, many times before and every single time it sounds just like this.

This is optimistic. He also gives us some optimism optimism on the timing. He reminded us that on the sidelines of the UN last year, we made the Gaza deal. Well, now there's talk that on the sidelines of this United States uh or sorry, United Nations General Assembly, which goes between now and Friday, and then I think there's another meeting on Monday, and then it's done. So, over the next six days, there will be sideline meetings, and there is a good chance, I would argue, that some form of deal could come. though I'm obviously not going to hold my breath.

Uh Donald Trump uh then goes on to suggest that the regime is weak and desperate and quote big changes can happen fast. In my opinion, that's also a hint. Big changes can happen fast. That is a bullish hint. To me, this sounds very familiar to when Donald Trump is like, "Good time to buy the dip in the stock market." And then he makes a deal the next day. Maybe I'm reading into it too much. Maybe I'm leaning into it a little bit too bullishly.

I've had this thesis that we're going to strike a deal pretty soon, uh, you know, for about three to fourish weeks now. So, you know, I might have a little confirmation bias. Donald Trump did say he expects a deal to be made after the election. But there are two deals that are really being talked about. There's a long-term deal and a short-term deal. What's being talked about in the short term, which Trump didn't mention, was a potential temporary deal to set the framework for talking about the long-term deal.

I think Donald Trump is going to strike a short-term deal now to pause the fighting, open up the straight of Hormuz. Iran wants the straight of form moves to open up and the blockade removed. Let that flow. Let both sides get their imports and exports flowing. Uh and and then you structure a longer term deal. Obviously, uh the shorter term deal is what markets are going to react to. Trump says a deal will be struck after the election.

You know, who knows? This could also be sort of his negotiating posture of I'm in no rush to make a deal, which is very common for Donald Trump. Anyway, anyway, Donald Trump says he's reasserting American power to create a a safer future. Uh he calls Cuba a failed state. That's when we saw the Cuban delegation walk out. Uh I have a uh brief little video clip of the Cuban delegation walking out for anybody who actually cares about that.

Here it is. This was the Cuban delegation dipping out. You can see Cuba there on the sign. Goodbye, Cuba. we're done. It it was a little interesting to see uh the various different uh countries uh you know and and the sort of their reaction to some of this. But anyh who uh Donald Trump then slams the ICC. The Wall Street Journal broke on Sunday that uh who by the way the Wall Street Journal also broke on Sunday that there's a $5 billion pact coming from the United States to aid in the Middle East.

Interesting. You know that'll obviously be taxpayer money. But um the Wall Street Journal also reported that the United States might prepare sanctions against the ICC, the International Criminal Court. Donald Trump uh does not want the ICC to have any power over Americans or American countries. And these sanctions could bar US companies from providing any money to the ICC. Same for Americans. The ICC, worth noting, was created in 2002 to prosecute individuals accused of genocide.

So this was right after 9/11. prosecute war crimes, prosecute crimes against humanity. The United States and Israel have been really concerned about the ICC, mostly because of what's going on in the Gaza Strip, what's going on in parts of Lebanon, and also some of the mistakes that have occurred in the strikes against Iran, including that school. And so, there are fears that remember that school strike killed 123 children, for example.

But there are fears that u reports of war crimes to the ICC and then prosecutions by the ICC could be bad for uh BB uh of Israel or Donald Trump. And Donald Trump does not like any agency that has power that he can't influence. And there's a belief that the ICC might not be subject to US power. Of course, that's where Donald Trump would have the power of the purse. Hence, potentially sanctions against the ICC. Uh this is uh not unusual for Donald Trump to want to try to claim more power.

Axios had I I feel like this was a little bit maybe too negative of a piece. You know, I always try to look at the uh um uh read between the lines a little bit. Uh but yesterday Axios had a piece where they were essentially saying a lot of this is Donald Trump lashing out as he expects to lose power during midterms. We'll see. Either way, you know, and then he sort of wraps up on changing AI to super intelligence. Overall, I have to say I I think the speech was broadly as expected.

Uh I do think that, you know, some people, especially the president of Iran, definitely had a little bit of a speechless look to their face. Uh but broadly, I think we got more optimism out of this than I expected. I I actually thought that Donald Trump was more accurate than usual on his speeches. I fact check a lot of his speeches, and most of the time I have to make a lot of corrections. This one was a little better uh than what we've seen.

You know, obviously some of the extreme comments about Cuba being a fail state or or Trenagua and and how, you know, crimeridden Mexico is some of these obviously more hyperbole. But when it came to actually facts, with the exception of the munitions shortages, which is really Trump branding to project power, um there were fewer fact checks to make this time. Uh, and I do think he gave us plenty of hints that things can change very fast and remember how we made a deal on the sidelines last year.

To me, that left me with more hope that a deal could happen. I don't know that markets care about that until a deal actually happens. If we look at market reactions right now, uh, excuse me, we can see that the 10-year Treasury yield is uh, some of this could be because of the ADP report this morning, which was relatively bullish. We can see that the 10-year has moved up again. We were at 4.93. We're at about 4.96 right now.

So, not so great on yields. And Brent after the speech did end up rising above 100 after this talk about a deal be occurring after midterms. We'll see. Again, I think that's negotiating posture and I think there's a short-term deal and a long-term deal. So, I think, you know, you really with Trump, you got to read between the lines regularly. So, you know, initial reaction is probably from markets here that you would have expected more.

You didn't really I mean you kind of topped out on the cues as Donald Trump's speech began and you really haven't gone anywhere since then. But we also had a fantastic day yesterday. So uh you know in fairness you can't win every single day, right? Uh in in terms of the market going straight up like it did yesterday. Yesterday was a phenomenal day. Uh and I mean hey Meta keeps rising which uh which has been a call that we've been making since about $566 a share.

I made multiple videos on the channel about uh this one about to being about to take off. So, subscribe to the channel if you haven't yet. But that gives us a breakdown of Donald Trump's speech. All right, cool. So, that's Trump. Uh let's see what else we have here. So, let's go see if the doomers have anything for us. And we have a few things that we want to cover as well once we get through the good old Trump commentary here.

All right, let's try the doomers. Let's see if they're taking >> Rockbot, the AI agent that SpaceX AI put out in August topped 400,000 weekly users recently. That data effective September 14th, 418,000 users of the AI agent, which represents a 24% week-on-week jump. Interesting because they released bot back on August 11th, right? There's been so much focus in the last 24 hours on this being the moment of AI agents, particularly around Muse. used as a consumer focused product from Meta.

Grockbot, a much more enterprise focused product, but it shows some pretty modest momentum for uh SpaceX AI, the AI unit of SpaceX. Uh shares kind of went back towards session highs after we put that report out. Check it out on the terminal and on Bloomberg.com. The stock up 1 and a half%. Um elsewhere in AI, Alibaba is stepping up its AI ambitions, unveiling what it calls China's most powerful AI chip built to take on Nvidia.

It's just one piece of a much bigger push with more than $53 billion committed to AI and plans for a massive expansion in computing capacity. Bloomberg's Peterstrom joins us now. Um, this is really interesting because it was just 3, four months ago. They put out their last generation chip. This one is three times better. Tell us about it. >> Yeah, this was a big day at Alibaba headquarters in Hanjo. They talked about uh their ambitions in AI in a few different fronts.

Uh, first of all, the AI accelerator. They see this as an opportunity to compete not just with Nvidia of course which is the market leader but also in the domestic market. Huawei has really been ahead here. Cameraorn has been sort of considered the next best alternative and Alibaba wants to be in that mix. They want to be talked about as one of the leading designers of these AI accelerators. They hope that they're going to be able to use that to push ahead with their broader ambitions.

They also talked about uh putting together uh over the long term an LLM with 5 to 10 trillion parameters really aiming uh at the frontier models that are out there. Uh and and we have you know we've seen Deep Seek and Moonshot in China come out as the leaders in the industry. Alibaba has been a little bit uh overshadowed by these smaller upstarts uh in recent uh weeks and months. uh but they want to push ahead and the CEO Eddie Woo uh who did the presentation today has said that his primary objective now is going to be uh AGI artificial general intelligence.

They're also trying to invest a lot of money in capital. They don't have the same kind of money that the Western companies do, but they're they're planning on investing in 20 gawatt uh gigawatts of compute to be able to push ahead and compete in that area too. Uh just really quick, Genu V900, it's an accelerator for training at the frontier. Training just very quickly, that's the use case. >> Yeah, training at this point.

That's their goal. Uh Huawei has tried to push ahead into this area too. Uh the Chinese companies of course would like to have more access to the Nvidia chips that are really the cutting edge here. But Alibaba wants to be able to offer these chips that could do training the same way that Huawei is aspiring to do that too. Yeah, >> Bloomberg's Peter Alstrom, thank you very much indeed. Coming. >> I mean, uh, Alibaba trying to catch up on the chips is totally reasonable.

I mean, you're going to keep getting that sort of, uh, you know, pressure against Nvidia and and US chip makers, but, you know, we all know they're way behind. Way more behind, as Elon would joke. Uh, all right. So, let's see here. Uh uh let's try the seamuses and then we've got a couple reports that we're going to go through in just a moment. Oops. Oh, I froze it. There we go. There we go. >> Find the best deal on a hotel.

That's where this agentic piece of this comes in and could have much broader impact than just um disrupting search. >> Yeah, fascinating. Really affecting actually affecting financials broadly today. Uh we'll see what happens tomorrow later this week. Julia Borston on Meta. Let's get to Oliver Renick in the meantime at SIBO in Chicago. Look at some options activity. Hey Oliver. >> Hey Carl. Not unrelated. S&P futures hit highs yesterday but some are saying it's alarmingly low. the number of individual companies making highs.

The options market says just wait. Yesterday's explosive rally in the NASDAQ and S&P had market makers. >> Yeah, if you got questions like that, email staff at meetke.com. That's where we could actually help you with customer support. We'll make sure you're taken care of. >> Meta options volume is 90% above the 30-day average. Intel is 40%. And traders bought twice as many calls as puts in both stocks this morning. Meta, in particular, very strong. traded more than half a billion dollars in options in the first hour of trading alone. 400 million of it was tied to calls out of the gate with the most popular contract to [laughter] buy the 770 strike expiring tomorrow.

That contract is not cheap because volatility is high right now because Meta is moving fast. Right now, market makers are giving Meta a 50% chance it will touch a new all-time high by October 16th. They think Intel will make a record by October 30th. But the big development this morning as well is that bulls are making a breakout move in the summer semiconductor favorites. Now two memory stocks like SanDisk up 6% today.

Micron up 3% and DRAM up two. Options say Micron will be the first to hit a record by November 20th. Guys, >> thanks Oliver. Oliver Renick watching some options activity. When we come back, SB Energy, the latest data center company or at least energy company to delay its IPO. We'll take a closer look at what that means for the broader market. >> Yeah, these IPO delays are not a horrible surprise. I think the market's just been a little too choppy.

You get these really exciting days that knock us close to all-time highs like we had yesterday and we're getting a little bit of a follow on right now, which is great, but uh you know, there's there's some work to do. Uh I think Anthropic isn't waiting for their financials. I think they're trying I think Anthropic doesn't want to lap Q1 financials because that's when they're going to have the glorious earnings, right?

Like they kind of have to do it by by January or so. So they could compared to their Q4 earnings because their numbers now compared to Q4 of 2025 are going to look amazing uh as far as you know once you bypass that the growth is going to look a whole lot slower. So, you really don't want to bypass uh some of that that growth you've seen compared to 2025. Uh but uh you know, if you could choose your timing and try to get probably past midterms and get into a little bit more of a euphoric time, I think that's exactly what they're going to do.

So, anyway, uh so I think overall this was optimistic on the Iran deal. Let's go look at some of the other content that we have to review. Specifically, we were going to look at Goldman and finish that. Um, I think that would not be a bad idea. Kind of almost have to restart that because I was only like 10 seconds into 20 seconds into the Goldman piece and then Donnie started yapping. All right, so let's go uh let's go jump into the Goldman app piece here and let's analyze what we've got.

Okay. So, this will just take one moment to get it up. You know, sometimes you just have to be a little patient. It just takes a little moment to get it up and then we're going to get it up. [laughter] It's all right. All right. That's cooking. That's cooking. That's cooking. That's cooking. Okay. Yeah. Brent now back under 100. 99.78. I'm optimistic. And looking at briefly, Q's still holding on. I mean, this is really impressive.

SpaceX up 133. Nvidia, what respect for 227. Fantastic. That was important. That was a tell for today. Uh Apple, we talked a lot about this yesterday. Uh big opportunity obviously. Uh and and it didn't really jump with the Aentic AI rally, which I I personally think it should have. Uh so uh Marll's up another 2%. I mean sort of a continuation almost of yesterday. Not as broadly and aggressively as yesterday, of course, but that's that's to be expected.

Uh [laughter] so all right, let's go take a peek at this Goldman. All right, so let's go back to this. Uh, all right. Few things. Goldman Sachs is now warning us about headwinds to the S&P 500. And these are not to be bearish. They are to indicate why there is reason to be cautious over the next 12 months as we've got a lot of lapping to do. Holy smokes. Take a look at some of their commentary here. First, they argue the S&P 500's forward price to earnings ratio sits at 19, which is in line with its 10-year average, but they say trend earnings have only exceeded the level we're seeing right now at the peak of the dot bubble.

We don't like comparing back to the peak. Basically, what they're saying is if you look at something like the cape ratio, things look really expensive right now on how much earnings growth we have relative to history. In other words, there's something weird going on promoting earnings. Okay. So, why are we promoting earnings like this? Well, they argue that one of the reasons you're seeing earnings explode uh is because of the following.

They say AI's impact on corporate earnings has currently experienced a very little depreciation drag. The easiest way to see this is by going forward to one of the charts that they have on this. And I'm going to show you this right here. So, take a look at this argument here. They argue, "We estimate the drag from hyperscaler depreciation expenses on the S&P 500 earnings growth uh will grow in 2027, offsetting the nearly half of the 11 percentage point boost to earnings expected from capex." Okay, in English, we're expecting a lot of capital expenditures growth next year to boost earnings, 11 percentage points, but half of that is going to be absorbed by depreciation write offs.

And we didn't have as many depreciation write offs in 2026, this year. Here you could see this graphically. So you had the gray right here is depreciation, which are right offs to earnings, right? their negative earnings. And this is normal. Depreciation in uh uh chip hardware is classic. You're typically going to write chip hardware down to zero over the span of sometimes 3 years, sometimes 5 years, sometimes seven years.

Data centers lately have been getting even more of an expanded time frame. But you're generally going to write this hardware down to zero where you say at some point in the future this graphics card is going to be worth zero. If it still makes me money, great. That's just a W on top of the residual value, but I've written its cost down to zero. You do this in real estate as well. The alternative is or or like the difference between real estate and chips is that chips do eventually go to zero.

Like at some point the useful life of a chip is actually zero and you just throw it away or recycle it. the residual value of a house considering that your expenses to maintain that property are actually being spent on maintaining that property. The residual value of the house remains even though on a tax basis you're telling the government, I'm depreciating it to zero. It is one of the greatest tax shelters in America because you are doing the same thing you do to chips except you're left with something that has probably actually appreciated in value.

That is very abnormal for chips, but that's what's been happening over the last year. We've actually seen chip prices skyrocket. I my company Reinvest, we've got over 50 different uh compute machines running with uh RTX 6000s. We've got Blackwell chips, the 5090s. We've got a bunch of CPUs running. We have a lot going for the artificial intelligence that that we're building. And I mean, frankly, we're just starting to scale what what we're building.

I should call it super intelligence per Trump. But um what's remarkable is our investments in GPUs over the last year have doubled in value. So our balance sheet could theoretically look like it's doubled in value on the basis of GPU values. That's not sustainable, right? Typically you write these down, but that's the argument that Goldman is making here is that capital expenditure uh depreciation write offs have been really low in 24, 25, and 26, and they're about to basically double in 27. that's going to make earnings growth for the S&P 500 start looking like a drag.

And so that's where they make this sort of warning and they argue, hey, be careful. Some of that capex spending is now going to start feeling like a drag. In addition to that, tech companies have generated over $150 billion in other income. We have flagged this already on this channel, so it's worth bringing it up