How To Probe Low Probability RTH Opening Ranges 07/13/2026 transcript

Folks, good morning. Welcome back. Welcome back. I'm here with Caleb again. We're going to talk about uh a new week when we have CPI and PPI numbers on Tuesday and Wednesday and then a Fed chairman speaking on both days as well. I think this can go one of two ways and I'll show you here what I mean. Good to know. Economic calendar, you see we have nothing on the docket today. On Tuesday, we have PPI and CPI, I'm sorry, uh CPI on Tuesday, Wednesday, we have PPI and we have Fed chair speaking at 10:00 a.m. both days.

So, this is going to be absolutely insane volatility in the morning session. PM session probably going to be the better I guess more discernible price run. So, I won't be participating so much in the morning session. I'll be looking for PM session, so I may provide some kind of uh lecture around that. Then on Thursday, we have medium-impact stuff that's not all that great. And then we have consumer sentiment on Friday at 10:00 a.m.

So, that rounds out this week, but it's a heavy hitter in terms of news. All right, so we have the daily chart. I stripped everything away and I just want to get a fresh perspective on price. How you doing this morning? >> I'm doing well. >> I feel rough. >> Let's see. >> I feel rough. All right, so as I mentioned for the folks who have been following along the last six or seven weeks in terms of the analysis I've shared from the daily perspective that we are this big range, okay?

And what we have just done today, we've had a drop down and between the two wicks. Now, there's a volume imbalance at the low. So, we have done this much. Okay? And I'm going to change that to gray cuz I don't want to imply a direction yet. I'm still trying to uh flush this out while we're looking at it. But, we've done enough here to trade into a discount. We have this wick to the left of us. So, you always want to grade that.

See if there's fib on there and just show the the 50% level. So, there's consequent encroachment of previous day or last Friday's discount wick, but it could act simply as a premium array. Any movement above this on a closing basis on this daily chart would warrant likely higher prices. Next one would be consequent encroachment of this wick. Okay, but we're not going to do that now. We're looking at just intraday charts.

So, what does the economic calendar suggest for today? Since there's no news today, usually no news can be a quiet session, a listless trading, lackluster price movement. Other times it could be rather stellar. In this case, we have big news on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, it's a it's a 50/50 whether or not we're going to have a nice price run this morning or everybody's going to just stand aside and let the volatility come in.

And then once Wednesday's done, then we'll probably see the the cleanest price action Wednesday p.m. to Friday's close. I don't know what we're going to see this morning. So, I'm looking at the charts fresh. I have not looked at the charts over the weekend. I have not paid any attention to Friday's price action. And with that, I I I just want to have a very, very clean slate. So, my perspective is not bringing in a preconceived idea or notion that the market should behave a certain way.

Um I like the fact that we've done this. It has not fully closed in or filled in this with the suspension block. That's the actual perspective right there. But we're going to use this the wicks because that's enough to build an initial idea on. I'm going to drop down to a 15-minute time frame. All right. So, we had a big new week opening gap here. So, that's where we closed on Friday and where we opened on Sunday. And we didn't close that in entirely.

Okay. So, here looks a little suspect. Okay. They were able to to sweep that. Do we want to go look Look at that. See how clean that is? Yes. So, what I'm doing is I'm going through the chart. I'm looking for where it is too smooth, too clean. And these are not the right colors when I'm doing that. So, let's change that. And this Okay. Put that cuz it's already hit through once. So, now I want to see do we have a willingness to go a little bit lower than this?

And if it does, we can trade to here. And I don't see Go back after the daily chart. I don't think I have but intervals showing up like this. So, you want to have visibility on. I only have CL on the 15-minute time frame. I'm going to drop back that one. There you go. So, we we did as much going down into that daily separation between the two wicks. But, that's not the fair value gap. Which is part of a imbalance. So, I'm looking at this wick here.

And it's consequent encroachment midpoint. Right there, and that's what we just used. See that? And I suspect that we're probably going to explore lower. But, eventually work back up in that new week opening gap, and then get to the buy side. I'm trying to refrain from calling the the buy on the daily chart. Because they're so rigged, you know, the administration is trying to pad their buddies' pockets out. So, it's it's more more rigged, more manipulated than than usual.

So, we had a sensitive reaction there at the low that imbalance between the two wicks on the daily chart. We also took this short-term low here. We hit an order block, which is this down close candle. That was used over here as well. We went a little bit deeper on it now, so we're going to see does it have the willingness to drop that down in here? And essentially what I'm saying is is I'm I'm wanting more information from the opening range first 30 minutes.

So, we're going to drop down to 1-minute time frame with these levels in mind. So, we have relatively equal highs here, I have minor minor buy-side there. Well, I'm a kind of minor buy-side because we have a new week opening gap on Sunday at 6:00 p.m. here. This is the more prominent buy-side. So, this is a minor cuz it's lower than say the difference to where that is where this this is minor. It doesn't mean you can't find a good setup.

If you want to run to that, it just means that by contrast it's not just simply go up here and then it's done. It could potentially keep going back up to the new week opening gap which is fine. I'm thinking they're going to try to visit that. If not, they'll get to it with the PPI CPI numbers, that's for certain. It depends on what we see today. So, I'm trying to build an idea, excuse me, around what we may do. I want to see higher prices.

That that's kind of like if you were going to hold a gun to my head say "All right, Dad, what what do you think it's going to do? It's going to go higher or lower?" I think it's going to draw higher, but I don't know yet based on what we have in price action. Because the volatility is so high the first few minutes at 9:30 Eastern time. I don't know where the entry is yet, but I know that I want to look for longs because I think we've done enough to balance out on the daily chart in that lower suspension block that I showed it.

Let me go back over there cuz I know some of you aren't following along and doing videos and looking at social media while you're listening to me. This is enough to warrant a little idea that they'll framework around, but I'm wanting to see that volume imbalance down there act more or less like a breakaway gap, where it's not it's not so interested to go back down there. Cuz if it's not interested to go back down there, that means this sell-side liquidity rate there is sufficient enough to send us higher.

Down in the 1-minute time frame, we're going to see if we drop back down into that daily inefficiency that's been shaded in gray between the two wicks. Regular trading hours. Ah. Some odd movement. So, I'm going to color this one purple, just cuz I wanted it to look different on the chart, and that is where we settled on Friday. There. Let's see if I can make sure I got that right price. Close 48 half. 48 half is highlighted.

Let's go back down into electronic trading hours. So, at 9:30, that'll that'll start us back on regular trading hours. And the gap difference between where it closed on Friday to where we are is significant, which is another reason why I think we're going to go up, cuz it's a huge gap. Gaps tend to to fill in, or make an attempt to fill in, let's put it that way. Ooh, because the is predominantly predisposed to go higher.

It's built as a Ponzi scheme that goes in perpetuity. They They go higher. Okay? Stock prices are meant to go higher. They're lowering new venture capital investors. And they got to keep the Ponzi going. So, it's more more likely they will at least draw towards this purple line. It doesn't need to get there. It's between where we are going to open up at 9:30, which we are not there yet. We got about 5 minutes now. We want to see it gravitate towards the buy side.

And then in this direction of this 30,048 and 1/2 level. Don't see anything yet. So, we have to give it a little bit of time. At the open uh what I want to do is I'll show you this is how I prepare myself. When we have a pretty significant gap like this you want to grab your fib. Put it right on the level. Okay? So, I'll try to get as close as I can right there. 4850's the level. And I'm dropping it down. And I'm finding Look at the time axis at the bottom.

See how it's 9:37. There's 30. I don't want to have it right there cuz I want to watch the candle open. So, I leave it like 32 or 33. I'm going to just do 32 because people are going to say it in the comments 33. And then highlight this. Show all levels. So, you have all the options. And that one. This is one. Which we'll do that with black. All right. And we'll make it a little bit beefier because we want it to stand out.

And we don't want that one dot. It's easier on the eyes for old men. And so here is consequent encroachment of the the opening range gap for regular trading hours. So RTHORG That's half gap. So we're going to annotate that now so that way we don't lose sight of what it is and why it's it's salient. Regular trading hours opening range gap C E. Regular trading hours Okay. So that's the business on that. It's a little too much in it.

Let's bring it down. So now we already have our levels now. All we have to do is at 9:30, as soon as that opening price comes on the chart this pops. All I'm going to do is just drag it over to like say for instance it's 9:30. I'm going to drop it right there on the opening price and then we'll be able to drag this to where that black line is. It's consequent encroachment, you understand? >> Yes. >> Cuz otherwise you don't have any.

Unless you have something automated which some of my students have done very well in terms of creating that stuff on like free access to it which is very nice. I still prefer manually doing. I just I just don't trust I don't trust the uh the data that sometimes the platform will type into it. So I'd rather see it manually and then do do manually that way I'm involved in the the process as a why it's important, whereas the little scripts that they create the logic may be sound but if I see something that doesn't look germane with with data then it's only going to crunch the numbers it's given.

Whereas me as the author, I look at this and saying, well this doesn't jive with me. Um I'm not going to use that information. I'll use something else in in instead. So Let's move this side. >> Would that remove any of the responsibility of a fail on a trade if you use those types of processes? Since instead of you doing it, they have a system that they programmed to do it. Or would they still be able to say, oh this was my fault? >> No, it's always your fault.

The outcome is always your fault. Period. There's no there's no relief of the responsibility of the outcome of a trade. If you made money, then you made money. If you lose, you did something wrong. You're the operator error. And and so many people want to argue and try to find fault because they can't accept the fact that they're they're going to lose. You're not going to win on every trade. Like chances are I'm probably going to be wrong today.

Pretty pretty high I'm going to be wrong today because of the volatility. So we drop down into this right in here. It's a bullish order block. Show all of this insensitivity. After taking out that short-term low which was trading in a second. Short-term low, we drop down in into the order block, change in state of delivery. Now we popped up in here. So what I want to see is do they use this as a head fake where people see that as a want to go higher.

There's 9:30 opening. Now we got a drop. Here we are. And here's the head fake. I'll just stop about. It's dropping out. Watch this liquidity in here. And consequent encroachment on the or 20 hours everything range gap is up here. So, 70% likely it's going to go up here about 10:00. That's usually the statistics. We're going to look and see if we can fade this. Run below here. So far, so good. What I want to see is does it really want to just tap below that or is it going to sink down and take out that liquidity we were talking about earlier?

Over there. We only did it like a wick through it the first time. All right, I'm going to use that. Now, of course, we're using TradingView's exceptional service. And you got to wait for like a magazine subscription you subscribe to it and you got to wait a month for it to come in the mail. So, we're going to have to wait and see what the fill is. As long as we stay in the upper half of the wick, I'm okay with it and I'm only trading with one contract.

So, it doesn't make a difference to me how much of a drop down in here as long as the close stays above the halfway point of that. Let's measure that. Like this. We'll get rid of this, this, that, that, that, that, that, and that, and we'll make this green. Actually, we'll we'll make it uh a darker green, I think. All right. So, again, now the stop loss will have to go just both back below this low, but below the consequent encroachment level.

So, that'll look like I can't I got to wait now for TradingView to settle down cuz it can't handle everybody's uh participation. Again, TradingView, if you're listening, which I'm certain you are, you guys got to tighten this part up. It's poor poor service. All right, so stop loss is just below consequent encouragement and the regular trading hours opening range gap mid gap level uh CEs. Uh we're going to look see if we can get above this buy side, which is the minor buy side I was telling you about earlier right here.

Okay? So, since I'm only using one contract, it's got to be managed through the stop loss. There's no There's no ability for me to do partials because I only have a single contract. So, for the sake of the the the day and the economic calendar, you click on that little Okay. Looks like it could impress. Assume that it should be sitting down now. Is that definitely stop here. All right, so we're going to see if it wants to go down and take out that lower low.

Here cuz it only did it on a small little shallow wick. So, I'll sell short here at consequent encouragement this wick. And I'll put the stop right here. And all I'm going to be doing is looking for it to run down to take another stab at that low. And then I'm going to try to reverse and go long and look for this buy side here. So, sell side is the draw. Where's my stop? One contract again. And we're going to look for it to trade down to there.

And the premise is is we had a failure to launch after taking um an attempt to go lower. We can see it now wilt. This will also upset anyone that wanted to go long for the day like in the first couple minutes like we used to try to do. Um generally it it kind of cr- causes like a deer in headlights scenario where they're afraid now to reenter. If it goes down here and takes out the liquidity I'm aiming at right here.

But I'm looking for it to go down here to go long. And just get back the loss but and also have some kind of a a favorable um increase in equity. It's paper trading too by the way, folks, it's for compliance reason, okay? Can't tell you what to do with real money. So we're just doing things hypothetically. Just like you guys when you trade your prop firms. Don't hate the player, hate the game. All right, same premise here.

We want to see the bodies stay below half of this wick in here. So notice what I've done today. Because I'm not 100% sold on the idea where the perfect entry is, I'm exploring. I'm trying to get a feel for what it wants to do because we're Monday. We have a huge enormous amount of volatility coming in on Tuesday and Wednesday. Because of that and we have no news today on Monday um and it's not nonfarm payroll cuz nonfarm payroll I'm always trading that Monday.

But this is the this is what you can encounter on Monday and if you're not really versed in knowing what you're looking for, if you don't have a model or if you're just really undisciplined, you can go out here and just wreck yourself very, very quickly. Because of that I'm illustrating with one contract. And if you're brand new, you shouldn't be trading with a mic a mini. You should be trading with a micro. I'm about to hold people's attention.

They like to look at these little numbers over here. They're sitting and watching what the candlestick itself is doing. And they always they always say like, you know, um show us where where it doesn't work. Show us where you failed making it happen even with a positive outcome. There's benefit in that. Sure, there's benefit, but there has to be a context and a setting where if I'm forcing the stuff that I teach and use in like this climate here.

This isn't a day I'm going to say, "Well, let's go out here and go and max out my amp account and do as many contracts as they'll allow me to do and see what happens." This is a day where you want to test the waters and see what the market's trying to do cuz we just had, you know, a senator in the US just expired. We're trying to figure out if it was some tomfoolery behind that or if it was just a natural progress of getting older.

But there's there's things that people are weighing from a sentiment basis. [clears throat] And people might say, "Well, you know, what is one guy in Carolina who miraculously always gets voted in but nobody really says they vote for him. Uh now he's gone. So I'm I'm trying to get a feel for that. There may be a little bit of uh concern about those type of things that may lead to a greater conspiracy. And the rumor is, and not the rumor, but the the the notion is is buy the rumor, sell the fact.

So if there's legs behind a story, the market will use it. But when everybody knows about it, don't believe it anymore. It like for instance, when money was telling me, "Hey, um do you trade You ought to buy Bitcoin. It's going up. And I said right away, went on Twitter, I said, um if you're long Bitcoin, sell it. You sell this It's not going to go to 20,000 now. It's definitely going to drop cuz my wife, who knows nothing about trading, thinks it's a video game.

She asked me if I was buying Bitcoin and told me I should buy it. So, if she, knowing nothing, if she's now saying it's time to buy Bitcoin, this is before it went to 20,000 the first time. Immediately, that was the top. That day was the top and it went lower from there, all the way down to 3,000. I think it was 3,300 I think it was. 3,600 or something. Something to that effect. So, on a day like this, what we're doing is we're trying to explore what the market wants to do, what it's not willing to do, and then staying out of its you know, get out of its way rather, on Tuesday and Wednesday in the morning session, preferably entering and managing positions in the PM session, over trying to participate in the gambling session that the PPI and CPI number from it, because they're one of they're runaway trains.

And if you're wrong, you're wrong bad. Like it'll wreck you immediately. And you see these young guys out there all the time doing, you know, 10 contracts and 15 contracts because of demo trading, but they're trying to get rich on a prop firm. Bulletproof. Bottom line is is you have to have a a reason for doing what you're doing and you can't just simply say, "Well, I'm I'm going for [snorts] broke." Cuz what are you aiming for?

Broke. And you're going to hit that target all the time. And you're going to hit that with that new effort. So, you have to be a little bit more cautious. I want to see if it can break below this one more time because what we've done is got real close to it, not already, traded to uh I'm going to use this this low here cuz this low was to this. Right? there. So, it got right to almost event horizon. But, it didn't get through yet.

So, I want to see if it can go below that, then I'll I'll lower the stop down to here and it it'll just basically be a break even type thing. Again, no no market replay. So, we can take a paper cut and it's not a big deal. >> Is that a Is that a phrase you use often or did you just come up with that? What's that? >> Paper cut? >> Paper paper trading. Is that Is that a >> No, I'm just It's something that It's not just dads and people say all the time. >> Oh. >> Death by a thousand paper cuts.

That's what uh trading is mostly with with retail traders when you first get into trading. >> Mhm. >> Um Even Even if they trade with a little bit of leverage, if they have no model, they have no discipline, they'll die by a thousand paper cuts. Small little losses that are over and over and over again will eventually just bleed you out. So, just a little bit more pop down through there and uh There you go. Mhm. Right to the level, didn't get a fill.

That's classic. Again, it's already done that little bit of a wick through it here once before. So, what we're seeing is if it wants to give a little bit more beefier pronounced run with the body, I'll show you what I mean by that. Over here, see how the body stayed there and we had that little divot of a wick. I want to see if it can put the body down below it. So, very a body underneath that level is much more significant than just doing wicks. >> Thank you.

In the beginning, everybody tries to avoid issue filled. They're trying to avoid taking a loss. And there's no reason to be afraid of a loss. I mean, if if you're reckless and you have no concern for the risk that you're entailing, um then obviously, you should be afraid of losses cuz you're you're out of control. You're like a drunk in a bar with a credit card with no limit. Like you're you're you're [clears throat] going to do serious harm to yourself and other people around you.

Here, we have no reason to be afraid of the loss cuz we're trading with one contract. Um we're being measured about what it is that we're looking for, what we're trying to do, what we're trying to accomplish. And now since we've done this, we went more time lower. Uh my interest is now does it want to reject this because now we have a minor buy side here. If you hear my wife in the background, she's decided to audition for cooking show.

So, I'm going to hear please no banging >> [laughter] >> and act like she's the only one in the house. But so, this is the order block level. So, I'm going to take that off. This is a little bit confusing. We don't need that now. And we worked this level here. So, we saw that I I I I did the probe of one contract, see if it can get that run up in towards gap closure. And then when it failed, I knew what I was looking for as the opposite side.

Now, that doesn't mean if you take a loss going long, it's always a sell short. It doesn't It doesn't mean that at all. If you remember what we were talking about when we first opened up the session, that without lining how the the bulk of the news influence and the volatility injection because of the news events, CPI and PPI on Tuesday and Wednesday, things go back to like normal business post Wednesday. So, PM session on Wednesday, then Thursday and Friday should be really nice clean trading.

Here, it requires a whole lot more thought process, a whole lot of weighing out if-then statements with your interest of buying or selling. You don't want to come in with a hard bias. You don't want to do that because when the economic calendar is dictating the pace of how much volatility is coming in like we have for this week, and we have no volatility expected because of news related today. There's There's no There's nothing news related for for Monday's trading.

So, you have to lean heavily on just simply the price action and experience, which is the reason why I tell students try not to trade on Mondays cuz Mondays are the it's the manipulation and accumulation part of the week, the first day of the week. And a lot of people I taught around the world, you know, have turned to like villain arcs. They're like, you know, I learned from him, but now I'm going to be a rogue, you know, burn this side.

The main sir in our dojo said, "Don't trade on Mondays, but I've I've attained a higher level of, you know, ability and and now I can trade on Mondays. So, listen to me, not listen to him." >> I've surpassed the black belt. >> So, they don't want to listen to Splinter anymore. Yeah, they want to listen to Shredder. So, and then when they shred their account cuz they're trying to do all these things extra instead of being more disciplined and saying, "Okay, I'm requiring a little bit more time to cure as a trader." And having no concern for rules or parameters, I mean, it's like the yellow line in in the street.

You know, if you stay on the right side of the yellow line, 90% of the accidents you will avoid. But, that's not 100% of avoiding So, there are rules to when I tell new traders when not to trade on Mondays. And it's predominantly every Monday except for non-farm payroll. Why is Monday so good to be traded on non-farm payroll because all the end of the week post morning session of Wednesday it's all event-driven and you don't know what they're going to do.

I don't know what they're going to So, I know the cleanest price action tends to be on the Monday of non-farm payroll week. So, that's always a every every Monday trading should be done on that. If you're brand new just try to study price action on a Monday and be okay with the market creating some seller price run that you may not have participated in. That's the problem with these people out there. They have tried to become mentors when they really don't know what they're doing.

They just want to be recognized as someone that knows more than the most people and looked up to. That's really what it's all about. They want to have a sense of notoriety and significance. They're not even really motivated more by the money. They just want to seem like a pillar in the community, pride. So, when we have people like that promoting the idea that you should do what he tells you not to you know, when I say don't trade on Mondays if you're brand new it doesn't mean that someone that has more experience can't trade on Monday.

It just means that like you just watched this morning because I wasn't confident you know, starting the week we had you know significant news that could be used as a like a [clears throat] mask you know, like a smoke to to cause a distraction. The price action runs that they're going to now present in the marketplace. Now, see how it's created this low right here on my exit candle. And then we dove down real aggressive and now we're trying to Look, we're trying to get back above this high here.

If we can mount a run back higher above this low, the fair value gap that forms bullishly after that will usually usually send us into the buy side and then up into here. And then it'll likely draw that buy side and see if we can get up into a more closer to consequent encroachment on the opening range gap. So, if we look at it through the lens of regular trading hours, this is what we see. An enormous gap still from here down here where we open.

So, this is all inefficiency. So, it Yeah, it I want to see it fail to go lower here and then start going higher. And then the rest of the day or going into tomorrow will be trying to get up into this area here. Does that make sense? Because there's nothing on the chart. It's a vacuum of of price. This is a real liquidity void between this candlestick's low and this candlestick's high. That is a liquidity void. Because there's no print at all in regular trading hours delivery.

It doesn't matter if electronic trading hours posted through that. Because regular trading hours has to balance out electronic trading hours to be an efficiently delivered price. It can't just exist on one one session. Let's say it this way. It can and that creates imbalances and inefficiencies that are only seen in one session being either electronic trading or regular trading. But regular trading has more weight behind it.

I place Let's say it this way. I place more emphasis on regular trading hours than electronic trading hours because regular trading hours tends to overlap and redeliver to levels that electronic trading has already has seen and delivered overnight. Oh. We've been trading since 6:00 p.m. last night, Sunday, Eastern time. So, whatever those levels were, you know, we haven't done that yet in regular trading hours. So, that's why it's it's more interesting for me to see to try to go up in this gap where there's no prints at all in regular trading hours.

I could be wrong. It could drop right from here and just keep going lower. But, more times than not, it's going to adhere to this logic than to do the other. That makes sense? >> Yes. >> Sorry, I had to I had to yell at my wife. She threatened me with a divorce. So, um Here we are here. See how it's gotten to our target? Now it's got a little bit muddy in here. So, I want to see it really mount up and I'm campaigning to go higher to get back above this low.

If it can't do it by 10 10, then I'll bail with watching what price is doing. If it starts to go lower, and it gets into event horizon between these two levels, then my interest is abated as well. So, we're going to do this. Let's go 500. Where's the price? Can't see it cuz it's >> 69. It was at 69 flat. >> Let's see. half. I think it just moved. It doesn't have to be all that perfect. Look at this even though it's And if you ever want to change it, just check your coordinates.

And there's the half and we'll leave the other one there. So, there's even horizon there. So, old old low How far is this relative equal lows? And I was saying when we first opened up those are interesting to me. So, those relative equal lows are down there. Even horizon here. If it closes below that, then we're probably going to keep wilting to go down into those relative equal lows. So, we had this little inefficiency right here at even horizon.

See that? Even horizon between this low and then the lower lower low been highlighted in red. Mhm. The open on the candlestick here, we had just a little bit of a rally, a little bit and then gave up the ghost. So, they're really pushing this narrative lower prices. I'm going to go back out to the daily chart. Yeah, daily chart. And we're going to drop this little thing down to the volume and balance. Right down here.

So, I'm dragging this down here. So, I'm I'm incorporating the volume and balance between these two candlesticks. You know what I was saying at the beginning of the video or the session we're doing here. Let's zoom in. So, there's that volume imbalance that's on your only. So, it could draw down into that. All right, so we have Um this is this is really hard to do with 16 different laptops. You got to keep going back and forth and highlighting. >> [laughter] >> These guys on the internet, man.

They got stories. I would say this should really sell off now hard. It's got the right market structure in here. It came back up into this little gap here. And if it starts to sell off, it can get to event horizon and close below event horizon would warrant a run below this relative equal lows around 395 even. Anything above here sets the tone for a run back above this high. And I'm only going to watch it till 10:10.

So, we only got 14 minutes left of this. We just tape record the rest of the session. So, two executions, one scratch, minor little thing, and then came back for a run. Pretty pretty positive outcome. So, it needs to be this candle or the very next candle that it drops. If it's going to go lower, it needs to do that cuz we're in this inefficiency. We had one candle and we're in the second candle here. You don't want to see a like a crowded house inside of an inefficiency is not something you want.

We're not trying to do a block party inside of one little split space between two times. So, we want to see it now displace aggressively lower. Otherwise, we're going to a different neighborhood and that's going to be up here and up here. Inefficiencies, you want to have one, two at most. Three, the probability start to shift lower if you're you're you're booking three to five candles inside that inefficiency. You don't want to see that.

A market that's in a hurry to get somewhere doesn't want to go in the gap. A market that wants to go in the gap one candle and not leave a body there and not close it entirely or even trade to half its um range or consequent encroachment. That's a market that is in a hurry to get somewhere. But when you start seeing like see how see it's spending way too much time in here, okay? So, support resistance folks, they're looking at that here that as oh, it's it's support broken turn resistance.

I'm looking at that inefficiency in there that should warrant more intel in the fact that we're spending so many candles inside of this. Look at it like this one. We had it there to that. Okay? So, why if it's bearish, why is it spending so much time in that? You see? >> Mhm. >> So, it's soon as you People say, "Oh, you count candles. You're always trading on the 13th candle and the 17th candle and the 21st candle." They're all looking for something they can market. >> I was going to say that seems a little crazy. >> it it's it's nuts.

And the only time I'm counting candles is when inside inefficiencies. Because you don't want a lot of candles in that little range of inefficiency and price action. We're already at like 1 2 3 4. This is the fifth one. No more than five candles. This is the last ditch. It's got to do it now or it's failing. That's the logic I go with. And already like, you know, even if this thing was to drop, I don't like this. I think about say you used this as an entry.

Not you should because you're you're you'd be selling short in a extreme discount from the daily high over these trading hours to the daily low. And you're trying to sell right there at the low. That right there goes against what I taught in the very first month of my free mentorship on YouTube channel. So, my my month rather one of 2016 private mentorship that playlist if you just listen to that first four videos you already know more than 99% of everybody else out there trading.

I don't care what they use. You know more than they do. And you can trade more efficiently and consistently if you adhere to the logic and try not to add on to it. Look what it's done. So, when you see these people when I when I first started teaching fair value gaps everybody in other type of disciplines they'd say, "Oh, look at this fair value gap. It failed here, huh?" They're not realizing that it's in a discount.

It's dropped straight from jump street. And you don't want to sell in a discount. You want to buy in a discount, okay? So, now because this is failed to offer premium sensitivity where it shows it unwilling to go higher and it falls lower. We spent too many candles in here. That lesson in this lecture as a is a in and of itself is enough to people that watch this to be like, "You know what? That's useful information." But largely it goes unnoticed because they want to know how to get the right entries.

When sometimes you don't have that intel afforded to you in the beginning. You don't have the odds in your favor, but you have to I recognize when the odds are stacking against you and identifying what it looks like. If you don't know that, your chasing of the money, your chasing of notoriety on the internet cuz you want to show a trade that you took, you know, look what I did, haha. You know, they're more concerned about that than how can I preserve my capital and preserve my mental capital so that way I'm not stressing myself out forcing an idea in the market where it isn't likely to occur.

So, there are times you want to see my PDAs failing. The PDA needs to show certain signatures for them to be valid and confirming with your expectation and price action. But, if you can recognize when they're not confirming, that's not failure in the sense that they've changed the algorithm or it's the new retail. Everybody out there is trying to create an image for themselves. They're trying to brand, okay? And you're never They're never catching up to the old man.

They're never going to do it, okay? So, you might as well just subscribe to the views that I'm teaching because that's it. I was doing a a test yesterday. I went on AI different couple different AIs and I asked AI said, "Give me a easy-to-follow intraday idea on when I can enter a short or a long and how I can target a profitable exit." You know what they were posting as a response to me? Fair value gaps, runs on liquidity, breaks in shifts in market structure, and macro times.

Now, you don't think that the industry has caught on to what I've been teaching? Think about that. I didn't put those things in the request. I said, "Just give me a simple approach to trading intraday, how I can time an entry buying long or going short, and how would I draw a target to assume a profitable exit in either?" Then they start spitting out my terminology. Now, how's this guy You didn't go through the mentorship. okay?

The guy that The guy created AI, he didn't go through the mentorship. But because the infection I created ICT has infected the internet, now the world knows look for these types of things because it works. It's the market, okay? You don't You don't have to look for something better than mine because I am the market. My logic is the algorithm. My enigma is the algorithm being implemented with price action and time. So when you blend all those things, you are light years ahead of everybody else cuz they're looking for patterns.

They're looking for indicators. They're looking for some kind of little gizmo that to highlight something, you know, a yin-yang symbol, something like that. >> Yeah. >> Um when none of that really has any bearing on what price is going to do. And it certainly isn't going to warn when your stuff's likely to fail. And that's That's maturity as a trader. You see, you go into this and like Kaden, he wants to avoid losing.

And that's natural. You don't want to You don't want to have a loss. But see what we did there? I'll come back to that in a second. We're right back up to that low. Why? Cuz this failed. That right there is insight. From this level here going back up just above this this old low. That price run if you didn't expect that, cuz if this fails, what's it going to do? It's going to draw back up to that low. If you're not aware that that's likely to happen, you could say, "Oh no, I'm going to force my will on this.

Oh, it could be coming back up for these sell stops. I'm I'm sorry, buy stops here and I'll sell there or I'll sell at the midpoint at event horizon between this one in here. It's probably this retracement." No. Why? Because we had this range from today's regular trading hours high down to this low. We had one low, two low, three low. Then it came all the way back up. So this completely wiped out anybody that's short that trailed their stop loss.

So now we have to test and see does it want to come all the way back down into this and use this as a discount array and then go higher or does it wilt right through it and come back up and treat it as a bearish fair value gap again to send us back down into lower prices even horizon there, and then there's relative equal lows as I said earlier. So, there's a whole lot more involved when you're trading Mondays. And then the like when I did this outline, I don't expect my new students to know that.

So, as a as a responsible educator and my a mentor and the person that knows this stuff like just cuz it's mine, it would be disingenuous as an educator to not tell them this is where you're going to fail most. So, if that's where it's likely to fall in the column of where do I usually lose the most on what day of the week, it's going to be Mondays when there is no news and you have big news on Tuesday and Wednesday.

It It's going to It's going to require a whole lot more experience. And how you going to lean on that if you're brand new? I don't ever tell my mature students that's been with me for a long time, don't trade on Mondays. And they knew when I was teaching. It's It's in there. If you're new, if you don't have a lot of experience, just avoid trading on Mondays unless it's nonfarm payroll week. That's an always trading Monday.

Always. But it's Listen to these guys that say It's funny cuz they when they first start talking on the internet or they talk to me or whatever, they'll say, "Yeah, I have no really interest in in teaching." They're all doing mentorships now. They're all doing paid mentorships, okay? They have houses they can't afford, and they don't have furniture on yet. They're sleeping on the bed. That's a air mattress on the floor.

But they're mentors. I think they're criticizing other people. Crazy crazy level stuff.