Bitcoin Stalls at the 50 Week Moving Average transcript

Hey everyone, and thanks for dropping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and how it has at least temporarily stalled out at the 50week moving average. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on ITC Premium at into the cryptoverse.com. As a reminder, you only have one more day to get a ticket to the ITC conference before the ticket prices go up.

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It'll take place in Miami. All right, let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin rallied back up to the 50we moving average. And and this is kind of the area where I've said before is oftent times the line in the sand for Bitcoin in terms of where the bears would put their final stand if the bare market is to go on. And what I mean by that is when you look through the context of history, every time that Bitcoin has dropped below the 50we moving average, like in 2014, 2018, uh late 2021, and of course late 2025, every time that that's happened, that marked the end of the bull market.

And then when Bitcoin has gotten above the 50we moving average in 2015, in 2019, and in 2023, that has always marked the beginning of the bull market and the nail in the coffin to the bare market. Now, the difficult thing is the assessment that some people for sure know what's going to happen here. >> [snorts] >> And you know, a lot of people are are looking at at the what happened over here in 2023. And and listen, I'm not unsympathetic to the view.

I mean, if Bitcoin gets above the 50 moving average, happy to drop the bear goggles. Happy to drop it and and let's get the bull market started. But there's this reality as well, right? If you look at 2023, you can certainly say, look, we we rallied through the 200 day moving average like 2023. Therefore, is it not the same thing? Maybe it is. But there are times throughout history in in Bitcoin's bare markets where we rallied above the 200 day moving average.

And I actually pointed this out earlier this year. I I was on a Twitter space with people and they were like, "Oh, well, if we get above the 200 day moving average, Bitcoin has never been in a bare market above it." I'm like, "Well, that conveniently ignores 2014, which kind is kind of weak because we only barely got above it. But in 2015, we had a massive breakout above the 200 day moving average and then we still came back down.

But what you'll notice in 2015 is when Bitcoin blasted through the 200 day moving average where it got rejected at was the 50WE, right? And so that is why I say that this is the line in the sand because there there also are times in Bitcoin's bare markets like in 2018 and in 2022 where we rally up to the 50we moving average and get rejected. So, you know, I know that 2015 maybe isn't the best comparison. That's a preh having year.

Doesn't really feel like 2015 is the best comparison, but I think the 2018 comparison has some legs to it. And and the the reason I say that is is just simply because of the you know this how how similar these moves have played out like the low in February in both cases the slightly lower low in the summer. And again what's interesting about the lower low is that Bitcoin's lower low in the summer of 2018 was at 5700 and then the lower low in the summer of 2026 was at 57,000.

And and so then what happened in both of those cases after Bitcoin swept the February low, we got one more counter trend rally. Now earlier this year when we put in the summer low, I said, "Look, we're likely going to have a back in what? Early this year, I said we'll likely have a low in February. We'll likely have a low in the summer." And you can still get counter trend rallies on either side of those. like you know the the summer low can lead to a counter trend rally but it doesn't necessarily have to end the bare market.

Now a lot of people get upset with this but I'm just showing you guys what has happened before and this is getting a little bit into the weeds admittedly but fasten your seat belt because we're going to look at the 4hour chart. I know you probably wonder what fresh hell is this? But there's something that that's kind of interesting that caught my eye and I don't know why, you know, this stood out to me. But what's interesting in 2018 when Bitcoin had that rally to the 50week moving average if you look at you you see where the breakout started like the the the big move up the 4hour candle where Bitcoin just started bolting higher from that breakout from the breakout it took uh 51 4hour candles to reach the 50week moving average and then that's where Bitcoin got rejected right so 51 4hour candles from from the breakout, right?

So, from when Bitcoin started the move because you can see it was just kind of consolidating and then a big move up 51 4hour candles. So, I was looking at that and I was like, "All right, well, I wonder what it was this time around, you know, and again, like I I this is this is one of those things where yeah, maybe you're maybe I'm looking for something, right?" Okay, like you know, so maybe it's not like the fairest comparison, but you see the breakout candle right here.

You I mean, it's pretty clear, right? I mean, you can see like it was consolidation just like 2018 and you move up and then you get the breakout candle from the breakout candle to the 50week moving average where we put in the local high was also exactly 51 4hour candles. So I I think like the difficult thing for me is that there's a lot of people out there saying that like this has never happened before. Like we've never had a rally like this in in a bare market.

But there is some validity to the idea that Bitcoin rallied to the 50we moving average in 2018 just like it did in 2026. The main difference is when the rally occurred. So in 2018 the rally topped in late July. This time it was it you know we find ourselves at the at the 50we moving average in late August but we have had rallies into August 2022. Bitcoin had a nice rally off the summer low into August. In fact, if you were to look at a price range from the from the summer low in 2018 to where it topped at, it was a little over a 40% move in 2022.

From the summer low to that local top, it was a little over a 40% move. And then from the 2026 low to that move that we just got was just over 40%. So, like I I would have to push back a little bit on the idea that this hasn't happened before because it clearly has, right? Like Bitcoin has clearly found summer lows, rallied 40%, and then still gone on to go a little bit lower later on in Q4. Now, that does not mean you can't go buy Bitcoin.

Like I've been saying since July 1st I it's a hard game to figure out where the low is going to be. But if if you know everyone on Twitter is going to come after me and and say well you know if you're still speculating about a future low you're completely left in the dust. Guys like I'm not saying you can't buy. Like there's no I and by the way if you think the low is in refusing to buy after just a a small move up after a market cycle low, right?

Right? I mean, like it would have been like saying you're not going to buy Bitcoin in early 2019 because it was at 5,000 and not 3,000 or like you're not going to buy it in 2023 because it was at, you know, uh, off the low. It was at like 23,000 instead of 15,000. In the time, at the time it felt hard to buy, but you look back a few years later and it's like, you know what, still buying in those areas at the 50we moving average was better than not buying.

Okay. So once you had a weekly move above the 50week moving average, you can see that that is what kind of put the nail in the coffin of the bare market. Now some people have said, well, we got rejected by the 50we. And there is some validity to the idea that we've at least stalled out at it. But stalling out at the 50week moving average in itself is not evidence that we are going to be rejected by it. even on attempts where Bitcoin gets through the 50week moving average, it still will often stall out at it for a few weeks.

Okay? So, don't use Bitcoin stalling out at the 50week moving average as necessarily evidence that it can't break through. But listen, I'm just here to say if if you're going to if you're going to look at these moves that we've had in 2026 and say that it's never happened before, that's not true, right? like every summer from every summer low that we've had right for the last couple of cycles, Bitcoin has rallied 40% off the summer low and then still went lower a little bit later on.

You know, one of the things that I've talked about before as well is the idea of an October low. And it doesn't have to be October, right? I mean, if if the low is not in, it could occur in September, could be November, December, January, who knows, right? When it'll be. But there's also, you know, one thing to I just want to like kind of put it out there is that in the last three market cycles, the actual drop to the market cycle bottom did not occur until after the midterm election.

So again, the midterms are in early November. And what you'll notice is that Bitcoin has always dropped to its market cycle low after the midterm election. So, I don't know if that's what's going to happen again. Like, maybe everyone's going to sit around through October and be like, "All right, the coast is clear and then, you know, and and then it happens." I would still be slightly in favor if the low is not in of of maybe October and then the people that are waiting for November, December, you know, maybe they shouldn't wait.

But I just want to show you guys how there's all these similarities through the cycles, right? the the counter trend rally like off a summer low that then stalls out and then goes lower a little bit later. Again, guys, if we get weekly closes, you know, above the 50we like we did in 2019 and 2023 and 2015, I'm happy to drop the bias. But it's also sort of worth acknowledging that every break above the 50we moving average after the bare market never occurred in the midterm year, right?

It always occurred in the pre-h having year. Now, it did occur earlier in the pre-h having year. Uh the one back over here in 2015 was in October and then this one was in April and then this one was in March, right? but is going from March of the preh havinging year to August of the midterm year. Like that seems like a a kind of a big jump. I'm not saying it's impossible, but again, there's like there's a reason to have some skepticism, I would say.

Right. There there's a reason to have some skepticism. Again, in my opinion, historically, the correct strategy, which is the strategy I've employed in both 2018 and 2022, was to start buying after the summer low, and whatever comes your way, you deal with it. You don't take out your emotions on anyone else. You deal with it. I started buying in the summer of 2018, and I got wrecked at the end of the year. I started buying in the summer of 2022 and I got wrecked.

And I thought I thought we were going to go lower back then. In fact, my biggest regret was not buying more. So, we can't know until the end of the year. Again, it's more of an academic exercise, but it just goes to show you that saying that this type of stuff hasn't happened before is objectively not true, right? Like, it it has happened before. That doesn't mean that the way that I'm viewing the market is necessarily the correct one.

But to dismiss it as not having happened is in de in direct contradiction to what has happened after the summer low in the last two bare markets. 40% rallies that then stalled out in July and August and then we led into the market cycle bottom. So we'll see if it plays out one week at a time. If you guys like the content, subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and again, if you do want to come to the ITC conference, uh, make sure you get your ticket.

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