10 NFL WEEK 4 PLAYER PROPS I'M BETTING SUNDAY transcript

Welcome to the best gambling show on the internet. This is the home of the money pick. Make sure you hit the like button. Make sure you subscribe. NFL week four player props to bet. And guys, this is a video that is awesome for us, but you have to understand the variance and you have to understand that I cannot predict the weather. So, those are two things we need to get out of the way. Last thing to get out of the way.

You guys have been phenomenal sharing the videos. And make sure you keep sharing this player prop video. I think we're the best with props on the internet. And I say that sincerely. And YouTube doesn't share the prop video. And people deserve to get some just other information about props. And I spend a lot of time on this video. I was even thinking of eliminating it this year just due to the time spent. But I love this video.

Let's get to the first game. We got the Miami Dolphins at the Minnesota Vikings. A first prop is Jordan Edison over 57 and a half receiving yards. Firstly, I doubt Justin Jefferson plays. Secondly, even if Justin Jefferson plays, I I just think the Vikings need to throw the ball. I think Kyler Murray needs to get adjusted to the system. I think this will serve as a warm-up game for Kyler Murray. And yes, on Patreon, we've backed the Vikings three straight weeks.

Uh, but has offense played great? Not really. Well, actually really bad last week. They should have won by 20 points against Tampa if they got any offensive production. So, Kyler Murray is going to need to throw the ball and KC has to get this team comfortable throwing the football. they will be able to run it which will make things easier easier for Kyler. So I'm going over 57 and a half for Jordan Addison. And Jordan Addison's a [ __ ] phenomenal receiver and it's not like the Dolphins defense is great.

Well, that's an understatement of the year. Uh next prop. Uh give me give me Ali Gordon. uh under 23 and a half running back for the Dolphins demoted to number two. I think writes the guy as long as he practices on Friday and I think we're getting a good number here even though 23 and a half's really low. One thing that's been lost and one thing that's been lost even by handicappers, not by us, about the Vikings defense is how good the Vikings have been stopping the run.

And look at Jaylen Redmond in the middle. Look at what the Vikings defense did against the Bears against the run. And this is just a Vikings defense that isn't all about pressure. It's not all about blitzing. It's very, very disciplined. And I think people are losing that. I'm going under the 23 and a half rushing yards. I think it's either Malik breaking Malik Willis breaking rushing yards or maybe Wright gets going a little bit.

I I just don't know. Maybe Ali Gordon gets eight, seven, nine carries. How many rushing yards is he going to get? I'm not sure, man. I'm going under the 23 and a half. And if you want to add something or make an SGP because you're not sure about that Addison one, uh, or Ali Gordon, the Ali Gordon one, I understand the uncertainty. Uh, Kyler Murray over 211 pass yards. Uh, maybe his over rush yards, but I think he's scared to run it, but his over rush yards is only 18 and a half, guys.

So, just keep those two in mind. But the two official plays are Addison Gordon. I like to give you guys SGPS to bounce off your head. Next game, uh we're going to Cincy. Uh we got the Jacksonville Jags at the Cincinnati Bengals. Uh first prop is uh Bashel Tutin over 53 and a half rushing yards. I think people get a little bit nervous with big ducks in the middle. I think people get a little bit nervous with Chris Rodriguez brought in.

Uh, but I'm not nervous about this. Uh, one thing we saw last week on film with the Bengals defense is that well, they can be had and they can be had in the pass game and the run game. And one thing the Jags do well, maybe better than anyone in the league is run to the outside. And the Steelers learned real quick, as long as you run away from big ducks, this linebacking core and the rest of the defensive line does not stay in their run fits.

So that is one thing you need to consider when looking at this. Another thing you need to consider is Jacksonville has an array of wide receivers at their disposal. That's something that's going to back the Bengals up more than um a Steelers receiving core or a Texans receiving CP without Nico Collins or a Bucks receiving core that everyone overrates. Like guys, this Jags receiving CP will open up space and I think Liam Cohen's going to run the rock over 53 and a half.

I get it. Big Ducks in the middle, but I I'm I'm getting against that. Uh, next prop, and this is a Zack Taylor fade. I'm going Chase Brown under 66 and a half rush yards. Um, man, do I love the Jags run defense? Um, no. Um, do I think their defensive tackle position is the weak spot of the defense? I I do. Uh, but I also just don't think the Bengals are going to run the ball all that great here. And maybe I'm wrong.

Um, I think they need to run it a lot in this game. I But the single back uh the single back experiment from Zack Taylor hasn't bore any fruit. Um, we know they used to always be in shotgun. Now they're playing more single back and it's just they can't run out of it and when they do play action it's just like two yard dump offs. It's not getting down the field. So I'm just not seeing the point. Um, and no one's falling for the play action.

Uh, like last play of the game against the Steelers when Joe Barl fumbled the game away. Um, so give me Chase Brown under 66 and a half rush yards. There's a time to buy low on Chase Brown like we did last year. It's not this year. Uh, make sure you get on Patreon. $7 a month. Uh, guys, link in the description. patreon.com/losonshow. Uh, that's where we make the money. Official bets are always up Friday night. Let's get this money.

Uh, next prop. And this is was the official prop on Patreon last week. And a lot of you laded it like I suggested. Oh, reliable Jacobe Brassette over 229 and a half passing yards. And someone did a back track dating back to last year. We are 8 in one when all reliable is on our table. And you know, I get it. It's up to 229. It's a little bit dangerous. And the next prop might just get you weary about it, but I for some reason I see points in this Giants game.

Like I I see the Giants able to throw it on the Cardinals. I I I I do think the Cardinals will focus on stopping the run. So, like I see points. I I thought the 44 and a half was a bit low. Um make sure you check weather because you know like some of the weather we're getting at the Meadowlands is [ __ ] crazy. Um but give me the over 229 and a half for Jacobe Brassette. And even with Marvin Harrison not playing well, um there's still enough targets and I like what Laflur is doing on offense.

Um and also the Giants aren't getting a lot of pressure on anyone by the way. And Brian Burns just tore his ACL and that secondary isn't the strongest unit by any means. Number six, I'm going Jeremiah Love over 65 and a half rush yards. I mean, this is what you need to do against the Giants. Uh obviously the Giants want to be a run first football team, but a a way to attack guys like Tibido, Abdul Carter, uh you run the ball down their throat and you see what happens.

And last year, even with big ducks, they were bad against the run. And I think this is a Jeremiah breakout game. Uh he looked phenomenal against the 49ers. Um I want to see him in the pass game more. Uh, but I don't think we'll see that. I think we'll see him running the rock, toading the rock, 66 and a half. I mean, Coupe had this early in the week. Me and him were talking about this. Coupe was like, "Yo, I'm getting on this." Jeremiah Love Train.

He got it at like 56 and a half. Like, I'm really good with this 66 and a half over. I think he gets to at least 80 yards. Um, and then like if you want to add like an SGP Malik Neighbors over 58 and a half by low spot like he this guy's so [ __ ] good. Uh, it's just that that would be the suggestion if you don't like that. Next game, Sunday Night Football, we got the Lions and at the Panthers. Um, I'm gonna just mention one prop that's an official prop that's number seven on this list before we get into that game.

Uh, Jaylen Daniels, Tampa Bay quarterback, if you don't know who it is, under 174 and a half pass yards. Uh, guys, uh, let before we talk about Jaylen Daniels, um, this offensive line's not playing great. Uh, this wide receiving core is fugazi. Like I told you guys, preseason and people wanted to argue with me, they're not creating any separation. Um, how are they going to create separation this game? Uh, with a quarterback that is undrafted, unproven.

Uh, thirdly, Zack Robinson is the offense coordinator for the Bucks, and I keep repeating that a lot, and his work was terrible with with Atlanta. Um, he made great players look good. He made good players look absolute [ __ ] Um, so that's what you need to factor in when you're looking at this game and the only thing we know about him is he's fast and I watched him in preeason. He doesn't throw the ball all that well.

I'm going under 173 and a half pass yards. If you're the [ __ ] Packers, you better stop the run this week. And I'm not sure the Packers stop it. So that's the only variable in that game I'm looking at. I just don't see them letting Jaylen Daniels throw it a lot. Uh, now the props for the Sunday night game. I I'm on Ross St. Brown over 77 and a half receiving yards. I mean, this game was built for him. Uh, two I I think the best corner combination in the league league and Mike Jackson and JC Horn. actually second best because Texans had the best but second best corner combination in the league uh will be out and Panthers play a lot of zone and I'm on Ross St.

Brown was created in his mama's belly to beat zone coverage. I know it's going to rain. I know they're on the road. I know golf's on the road, but give me on RA. He he wasn't all that active last week. Um I Jets defense doing good this year by the way. Um even good for them but I I got the I'm on Ross St. Brown over 77 and a half. I I think this is a bounceback game for him. UH NEXT PROP RELIABLE number nine Gibbs over 34 and a half receiving yards.

Everyone wants to pound the running yards. I get it. Um I I just don't like going like 96 and a half, 98 and a half. Um the man just every time we get his receiving yards in this 28 to 36 range, it it goes over. I'm not rethinking the wheel. Uh Devin Lloyd looks like he might play. Uh but these Panthers injuries on defense are starting to catch up. They're catching up on offense. And if the Panthers get any sort of pressure on golf, you know where that ball's going.

And then also when you're playing against zone, uh Gibb is Gibbs is an extremely smart player. So give me Gibbs over 34 and a half receiving yards. Uh last prop number 10, I got King Henry under 98 and a half rush yards. Um, okay. You're probably saying, "Lawson, you're a [ __ ] idiot." Uh, for putting this on, I guess. Um, one thing that is big in NFL betting and should be factored in prop betting is travel spots, is uh is wear and tear.

Um, that game between the Ravens and Cowboys was grueling. Anyone who watched that knows that was an absolute banger of a game, but also a game that was very, very physical. And Derrick Henry is getting up there. And you do have Jeff Simmons and Frank Leyers in that interior of the Titans defensive line. And I just don't know how many carries you want to give Henry. Could he break a 40, 50, 60 yard? Yeah. But I'm if I was Jesse Mentor, I would have him on a 16 to 19 carry limit.

And we know it just depends, man. Like I just think Lamar Jackson is throwing the football so well right now. And this Titans secondary is trash that they could get a big league early. And yes, Henry's going to get his touches. Henry's going to get his yards, but I don't think it's going to be like a Henry 120 game or a Henry getting over 100 yards. I'm going to go under game flow. Uh, you got to protect this man. This is a long season.

Um, and two miscellaneous props. Um, two other ones that didn't quite make the list. Monday Night Football, Drake London under 78 and a half receiving yards. Um, I know the Saints haven't played great defense. Um, but it it guys, I think this number is a bit high for Drake London, and I'm the biggest Drake London supporter. Um, I just want to see Mike Penn Jr. uh served the ball better to him uh more than one game. And then also like the Packers were blowing coverages.

So you have to factor that in like I just think the numbers a wee bit high for me. Um 78 and a half receiving yards. Also, um this Falcons team is good run blocking, not great pass blocking and like Chase Young's going to be out there. So I think that's a factor. And then I kind of got like a long shot for you guys. It's a I guess it could be called a prop. Dolphins under plus six and a half. Under Dolphins under 6 and 12 plus 375.

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