Post US Holiday Monday Followup transcript

All right, folks. Welcome back. So, here's the 15-minute time frame chart, and this is basically the levels I gave with the exception of these wicks being highlighted here. Those are things that were not there. And obviously, the first was the fair value gap and the other gap that I included when I was doing the lecture with my son that you watch on YouTube this morning. So as you can see the market did in fact gravitate up into this inefficiency and it just breached a little bit above its consequent encroachment. uh it made its way back down into first present value gap after getting to this level which I think is interesting and then it had a reaction off of that and traded up into a quadrant level which will mark them here.

Right? You see that? So it's the lower quadrant and it failed to [clears throat] come up to the octant right above the lowest quadrant. So, with these levels here, we're going to drop down into a one minute time frame and get through this chart in time efficiently and not put you to through too much stress. How are you doing well today? Um, I mentioned this morning that um when you're trading around holidays that are in the US, and I know people from other countries don't like to hear these types of things.

They think, you know, you act like everybody revolves around America. Well, they're American markets, so I mean it's in the name, right? So, if we are celebrating a holiday, uh there's a lot of money that's going to stay on the sidelines for another day or so. Okay? So, I think by Tuesday or Wednesday, we'll start seeing a little bit more normal price delivery and and type of uh participation. Again, not in the sense that it's buying and selling pressure, but it's think of it like this.

Say you're an auctioneer, okay? And your job is to try to get the most for an item, okay? And the item is price. So, if you're the the auctioneer for ENQ, and this is the algorithm's job, by the way, if it if it's coded and scripted to run on a day that is predominantly historically shown to have a very low participation. See, you're all told that it's the buying and selling volume that pushes the market up and down, but it's a net sum zero game.

So for every buyer there's a seller. So what's the difference? The difference is is the market's going to be offered at higher prices. Higher prices. Higher prices. Higher prices. And dealers, which are mis miscalled as market makers because they're not market makers. Um they have no control over that price. Now they can deal and pair trades together, but they're not they're not creating the high and low of the day. they're not keeping a sustained buy program or sell program in in play.

So, when we look at the market before it starts trading, which is what I showed you today in the 15-minut time frame, um when I say it's the lay of the land, if I can see the lay of the land where price has a strong potential to get to higher or lower, I can do it on a a fiveminute chart. I can do it on a one minute chart if it's clean price action, but as you saw on the 15-minut time frame, we were right in the middle of that range.

So, no matter what school of thought you come from in trading, you're stuck in that middle. And in the middle, it's hard to have a very strong conviction, especially when you're starting on a new day of the week. So going in without a bias this morning and forcing myself, you know, to participate in with my son watching me. You guys watched something that didn't pan out and then I mitigated that. So if it would have been a second loss, then it would be simply there's nothing to talk about.

There's nothing to do. Don't try to go back in and force the hand and you make a larger mess of what it is. The the whole premise today was to show you how it's advantageous for you to not participate in a day that's already sleated already expected to be a low participation day. Low participation days are days that a US holiday occurs, a major holiday. I'm not talking about like, you know, St. Patrick's Day or something like that.

But the the days that cause banks to close, if if it was a normal business day, like we saw Friday in the US, that's a bank holiday, but we celebrated the 4th on Saturday. So if Saturday or Sunday has a US holiday that would usually close the banks down, then Monday is a no touch day. Now, I already know there's going to be people out there that just simply want to go against what I said because they want to make videos after the fact and say, "I did this because Michael said not to." Wonderful.

You're, you know, you are a non-conformist. You strong contrary and you. [laughter] If you do that as a career, uh, you're going to find you're going to take more losses than it's necessary. And as you saw today, I got it wrong. And it's okay. But I knew going in, that's why I laid out on X, that these are days that you simply just don't want to participate in. But I'll force myself in there and and see what I can do.

If I'm trading in a realm that is stacked against me and the probabilities are suggesting that I'm probably not going to be on my best game, then I shouldn't be surprised if my results are not stellar. if my precision is off. Now, some of you already saw on X. You complained that you got hurt today. Well, you learned something, didn't you? Today is a day where you say, "I have learned not to participate on days like this." There's nothing wrong with that.

You can trade tomorrow. The problem is you want to do what you want to do. You want to have it your way. And it's not Burger King trading, okay? It's not have it your way trading. It's not having your weight mentorship as I used to say behind the payw wall. So it's like this knowing where your probabilities are shifted in your favor versus when they're not. And when they're not, you need to know how to dial back your participation.

And if you know that you don't have good, strong, impulsive control, in other words, if you don't have reasons to keep yourself in check, don't even look at the charts. Go do something physically placing yourself away from the charts. Don't carry your phone around. Just do something. Occupy yourself. And over time, you'll see that it rewards you for not chasing opportunities that are many times disguised as impossibilities.

All right, so here's the business. We'll get through this real quick. I'm only going to look at NQ today. So that's that. Uh here's a 9:30 candle. We open, traded down. uh we rallied up shallow little run here. I told my son that um because it's the holiday even though we had this continuation suggested with the close below consequent encroachment there. Um I still kind of favor this admittedly. Um and I'm okay if I'm proven incorrect in that the rest of the week.

I just think that it's reasonable for it to go down here and and clear that up. Not calling for another sustained price run lower yet. Uh, but I I think because where we're at, I I think this is a a potential draw on liquidity. And I'll be looking for that, you know, in Asia tonight and if I wake up in the middle of night and check London out, I'll look and see if it's doing if it's doing anything that would gravitate towards that price level.

And again, not trying to twist your arm and make you think, uh, maybe you should look for shorts to get down there. I'm just saying that I'm watching to see that. It's more along the lines of me trying to get a feel for the rest of the week. and you if it can gravitate down towards that or set up a market structure that would imply that's possibly going to unfold, then I may engage with that idea. Um, I'm not terribly excited about being long.

I'm not I'm not so wildly bullish, you know, in that regard, but uh that could change obviously, but as it is right now where we are in price action, I'm not terribly excited one way or the other. But if I have to be honest with you, every time we sit down, I got to tell you what I'm thinking, okay? In terms of a draw, and I'm I'm electing to use this. Okay? So, uh, this morning we had first potential fair value gap here.

So, we had a volume imbalance between these two candlesticks. This close, this open, and then we have this candlesticks high. There's no volume balance in the low. So marking that there that's the first percent value you got. retrade lower, come back up in and acted as an inversion for everybody. Got there didn't give me a touch there. came up into this inefficiency that acted as an inversion fair fair value got initially but again this wick we didn't see consequent encouragement close below uh below that rather and we traded back above it and you saw me switch gears and aim for uh a run higher up into that 15minute inefficiency that's that full range before we dropped down to the one minute chart and it's it's the delay of the land post I put on X this morning And we worked around that level for a while, ended up dropping back down in, used this inefficiency, moved at the consequent encroachment there, which was kind of like what I was looking for this morning.

Um, but it came back and stopped me. As I said, I wanted to prove a U right in here. I wanted to see it act as a sensitive price level using my event horizon and it came off of that and then gyated around move lower consequent encouragement. Look how it just hang hung around rather and then found its way lower and then first position everybody got gets retraded too. Look at the bodies right there at consequent encouragement.

You're telling me there's an algorithm? You're telling me [laughter] you're telling me that that is uh what just buying and selling pressure just in agreement, right? Is that the acceptance? [laughter] Is it the market's acceptance to buying and selling agreeing at good old Michael's ideas? It's funny, isn't it? So, we see it touch it there one more time and we're in the PM session. So the market rallies up and comes right back up into a small little pool of liquidity right there and touches the low of that inefficiency one more time.

Trades up into the inefficiency but fails to get to consequent encouragement. Breaks a little bit lower. Nice little bearish value gap there. Sends it lower right back down into that old eye right there. So, what's the takeaway from today? Number one, if you got hurt, you learned or you should learn from it. US holidays that would close the banks down if it were on a weekday, Monday through Friday. If they occur on Saturday and Sunday, don't touch Monday.

Tape read it. Don't demo it. Just stay out of it. It's your best option. And if there's a big move that takes place while you're not there, it's okay. Give yourself permission to miss things because you can't do anything about it once it happens. And that's that's one of the most terrible traits that a trader can develop is to feel so much regret and remorse about not participating in a move that you may not actually been executing in.

It's easy to see it after the fact and it's so hard to overcome that for you as a student being being a mentor trying to cultivate that mindset to stay away from those toxic thinking. It's it's 100% your responsibility. I can only suggest it to you. I can only tell you things that will help mitigate those things that creep into our psyche as a trader. but it's going to be you placing them in a a usable uh daily repertoire.

And when we have sessions where there's a US bank holiday, you know, that would affect the banks being open or closed, if they occur on Saturday and Sunday, just expect Monday to be an ugly price action day. Something that you shouldn't put a lot of risk on, something that you shouldn't miss the family cookout over. Okay. So, really nice to see it come back down into first percent of everybody gap. Worked up inside the level up here.

I had a no bias going in. Um, and as the morning progressed, you know, saw it try to go up into this area here. And frankly, it it's a it's a nothing burger really in terms of something that you should be excited about or something you should be regretful over. Okay, these are going to be the dog days of summer. Okay, this is a classic scenario what you're going to probably see in July and in August and just dial back your participation.

Look for the best of scenarios where everything's in alignment one directional. And when we open up and we're in something like this, let me go back to the 15-minut time frame. Really re reiterate something here. If this range high and this range low is what I was defining this morning with the lay of the lamb and we started the day right there. Like literally folks, if if if I measure the high and the low. Okay, let me just do this.

I'm going take everything off. I'm going to grab the fib and drop it on that high down to that low. There's 50% right there. We opened right just above it. We're at equilibrium. So, nobody's going to know really with a great deal of certainty. I I'm admitting it and I proved it today. You won't know with such a degree of certainty that would warrant or should invite you to put real monetary risk on you. You don't know what side of these short-term little inefficiencies or buy side or sellside liquidity or the parent buy side or the parent sell side liquidity.

You don't know what they're going to do. You don't know. We're just starting the week out. So, you have to have a little bit of data. It's price action. And that's what we do. We submit to what's it going to do and what has it done for Monday. Okay. So, where do where does that leave us? Well, we worked up into that gap here as I had before. Okay. I'm going to take these little lines out because it's a little too busy.

I saw a guy tweet replying to this saying there's a lot of gray boxes on that chart. It's only two, folks. One, two. Okay. A dealing range low and a dealing range high and a very small minor buy side and a minor sell side. That's all that was there on that chart. Those are the key levels I'm watching. Okay. So, that's what I mean when I say lay of the land that I'm looking at these things and nothing really greater than that.

We opened relatively in the center of that range from high to low. What we left is these relative equal lows. So that minor sell side is still a factor for me. Okay. How we if we are going to trade down there, we've done enough by taking out minor buy side here. We went up and then failed in the afternoon. If we if we roll over and take out that low and accelerate and get below here and we do it on a sustained run, not just go below it a little bit and then go back up.

If it rolls through these lows and it manages to take out these areas here, then I'd like to see it make an attempt to get down to this inefficiency. I don't want to say it's going to break that low, which is why I gave you, think about what I've done here. I've given you the full dealing range to watch with within where we're at. And then I gave you two inefficiencies to watch inside of that range, which is this one here and this one here.

They're extreme. That means they're the lowest one in this price range here. And this is the highest one from this high to low. So I've given you actual liquidity and I've given you inefficiencies. Okay? and it gravitated to this one first at the start of the week. It's done several attempts to try to go higher since then and it failed to do so in the PM session. So, we'll see if it manages to muster up the ability to get back above it and trade higher.

If it does, then that's no problem. I'll look for this area here to be the draw on liquidity if it doesn't do it by tomorrow morning. But if it fails to do something like that and it works lower and it takes out these lows here. Now notice what I'm doing. I'm not saying if it goes up I'm right. If it goes down I'm wrong or right or wrong. I'm saying if it does these things then I'm looking for something to do based on that information.

That is an if then statement. If the market proves to me that it wants to do specific things, then that will align me into thinking either this or this. Now, why am I not saying the low? Because I think they may want to continue pushing this higher on the daily chart. So, this is there just to define the range and it could go it could go below it. I'm not going out there on a limb right now and telling you I think it's going to go below there right here, but it could take out that low and trade down into this inefficiency and then start to go higher.

Or I could be entirely wrong and just starts to go higher. And that's fine. and I'll just turn my attention to here. But as of right now, this is what I get a lot of times in in posts on the comment section of my YouTube videos or predominantly on X. When I post some kind of a analysis, then it pans out. It's always the same dozen or so people that always say, "Okay, now what's next?" Like, how about studying and doing some tests and logging what just transpired? like we just had a lot of big moves just take place based on June 7th's analysis analysis rather.

So don't be in such a rush that go in here and try to capture these next big run. Relish the idea that we had it right for a while and then we're easing back into it. But we're also knowing going forward that we're in the summer doldrums. Okay. Uh the economy is in in the toilet. Uh the only people making money are the people that are participating in [laughter] insider information and I'll just leave it at that and it's highly manipulated and we have a you know geopolitical stress on us continuously with the war scenario and all kinds of things.

So that is not conducive for wonderful easy lowresistance liquidity run conditions. So because of those facts, not opinions, they're facts. You know, you need to know when to say, am I impulsively trying to participate because I just want to play a game or am I really willing to lose money on this trading idea? Because if you're not really willing to lose on that trading idea and you don't feel one-sided about your analysis, then it's not high probability and you're not holding a strong conviction to participate.

So, when we when we're inside of the middle of a range like this right there at the open this morning at 9:30 Eastern time, you got to submit to time and let the market give you a little bit more information. And if it takes you going into a demo account to put a trade on just to get your finger on the pulse of the marketplace and then be proven wrong, don't look at that and think, "Oh, I got to got to change my model." It's telling you what you thought you saw in the marketplace isn't panning out.

So, you have to either change your opinion about where you think it's going to go or remove yourself entirely. And those two decisions are the hardest ones to make as a trader because we're geared to think I want to I want to buy or sell and make money. And the doing nothing part seems like it's counterintuitive. It's counterproductive. It's It's like an oxymoron. You know, we're a trader. We should be wanting to trade every single day when you should be looking for your model to be speaking to you.

And if it's not clearly indicating that it's a one-sided idea, that it's going to go either strongly higher or strongly lower and very few things are in opposition to those ideas. Unless you're seeing it like that, you are forcing yourself to participate in low probability conditions. And I'm teaching you not to do that. Many of you kick and scream and resist me in that regard. But the market will teach you. Okay? You could learn it painlessly by me educating you and telling you to look for these things and avoid certain things.

Or you can not listen to me and the market beat you down, take take more from you than you probably are willing to give up and potentially take you out of the game and wreck your whole psyche about whether or not trading is for you. And that's why I teach the way I teach. Okay, so hopefully this little, you know, followup was helpful to you and we'll see what the market gives us tomorrow. [snorts] Until I talk to you then, Lord willing, be safe.