Bitcoin: The Monthly Signal Says $92,000 by October 31 transcript

mber. So what I'm trying to say is is that the period between middle of October and middle of November, that is the highest probability period to really see Bitcoin take another, you know, another step up if it is going to do that, you know, which I do think that it is again. So Bitcoin has actually done uh many many many important things since that monthly close uh happened, which was of course on Wednesday. We didn't talk about this in yesterday's video, so I want to bring this one fresh right here.

But Bitcoin did reclaim the midband on the Revan Ribbons indicator for the monthly time frame, a very high-term time frame. And Bitcoin has done this actually many times in the past and has had a very very very predictable result of what happens after that or at least you know uh I guess high probability result of what's happened after that. So I'm going to I'm going to run you through each past ones and you can make the decision for yourself because ultimately you are hopefully a grown adult capable of making decisions for yourself.

And the last time that happened was actually back here in March of 2023. Bitcoin reclaims it and gets a quick test up again to these gray dots in that first sort of uh liinal zone between the neutral area and upper band one. And then a few months later does get to test at least the bottom side of upper band one. Of course, from there it goes up, you know, onwards and forwards for actually a couple years, which not bad.

Uh but I want to first focus on the short-term move. So again, similar thing over here. May 2020 recovering after the old Rona dump. Bitcoin reclaims the midbands, gets a quick test up on the next month, straight to that next uh gray dots right here, and then of course tests the lower end of upper band one right here as well. These all happen relatively fast. In 2019, again, reclaims it right here. Basically tests uh both those things on the next subsequent monthly dildo.

Of course, we go even further back than that. We can find from 2015, Bitcoin reclaimed it right here. Again, next month again, hit both of those uh targets on the subsequent month. And if we go back even further than that, we do have one more example from 2012. And this one, same thing. In fact, the next uh the next month dildo did test both of those. In fact, even tested the midband basically again. So if we look at our current instance right here, where would those relevant regions be?

Well, the first one is going to be the gray dots and that is just about $92,000. High highly inflated US dollars of course, but yes, that is a legitimate target for this month. Every time that we've seen Bitcoin reclaim the midband officially on the monthly time frame for the Revan Rubins indicator, you have gotten a free ride up to that target on the next monthly dildo. In many cases, Bitcoin also will test even the bottom end of upper band one, which was actually at 103,682, but that is not necessarily, you know, guaranteed for like a next uh, you know, a next uh monthly period.

Uh, generally that's going to be a target overall. Um, but basically I could say Bitcoin is just more or less long-term bullish as long as it is above the monthly midband right here, which is 80,000 bucks. And I'd even go as far to say on top of yesterday's video, not only do I expect Bitcoin not to really go down below $75,000 in the next few months. Um, I would be surprised if Bitcoin even went down below $80,000 and held that on a higher term time frame closing basis.

Now, I might end up eating those words ultimately, of course. Very, very possible. Um, but just based off of history again, I up is the the risk is to the upside right now, not to the downside. Now, on the other on the other on the other side of the token, on the other hand, whatever the [ __ ] the saying is, um, I would not be at all surprised to see Bitcoin test $80,000, that is a completely different thing. Closing below $80,000 on a higher term time frame, like a weekly or above, okay, that I think a little bit less likely.

But Bitcoin coming down to test it, that would not be surprising at all. So, I do think that that's kind of a base for this month. Bitcoin were to get there. But again, to begin with, that's kind of a uh it's kind of like well and far away. Anyways, before we move on any further, I actually do want to just once again readress what's going on with uh with Trading View while everyone's here because Trading View is updating their terms of service and this really matters for you if you have bought a lifetime indicator from myself or or or anyone out there, like literally anyone out there.

So, so basically what the deal is is that on November 1st, so literally little bit less than a month from now, uh Trading View is changing their rules in a quite drastic way. they are going to incur costs on people who create indicators and then give out like invite only uh well invites I suppose and the deal is is that if you're doing that you're going to pay 30 30 bucks per person uh which is going to be [ __ ] untenable.

I mean for me for example I have free indicators that have thousands of people [ __ ] on them. Like literally free ones that have thousands of people on them. So I would technically be, you know, on the uh, you know, on the dole for like 30 to 50,000 bucks just for my free indicators of, you know, of course we add the paid ones, you know, it goes up even more. So that's just untenable. So we are not going to be able to offer lifetime access uh to indicators any longer on November 1st.

So we're running a sale period from now until November 1st. The code is lifetime just like you see right there. All capitals 20% off of any one of the programs or services in the Teachable link description below. do not take a monthly um uh subscription for any of the indicators. We will need to cancel that before the end of the month. You will not be able to uh to you know to carry that to to own it. I guess um ultimately you'll you'll be kicked out and then you would I guess have to go on to Trading View.

But Trading View is like I said forcing everyone onto their marketplace and the marketplace does not allow for lifetime uh buying options as of this moment. Now, I'm speaking with Trading View's team hopefully in the next week, and I really want to get that point across to them, which I I would hope that they already [ __ ] know. I mean, it's it should be quite evident if they have any clue who uses their platforms. But, uh, but as of right now, there's no promises.

I don't know if we'll be able to if we're if we're ever going to be able to do that. So, just want to lay that out right now for anyone who is on the fence. I again, just like straight up, this is the best information that I have right now. This may be the last like literally the last [ __ ] uh chance. Now, it is possible that we move to a different uh you know uh venue as well, but I'll let that I'll make that decision later.

It's not important right now because honestly, Trading View really is better than you overall. And by the way, I also want to be really [ __ ] abundantly clear. If you have bought lifetime access to any indicators, at least of mine, I don't know about other people, but at least of mine, before November 1st, you will retain that access lifetime on Trading View. No questions asked. You don't need to worry about nothing.

You're all good. It's fine. It's no worries. You don't need to email us Elsa. I I I guess you know I I I totally get it's kind of a big deal. Uh but yes, you're fine. Don't worry. It's for everyone else anyways. Okay. Yes. Let's move. Let's let's get back into the actual analysis. God damn, man. Uh let's go back to the golden cross dispersion of returns results. I just want to continue to reference this. We are on day number 24 now from the actual cross.

Again, the golden cross is the cross between the 50 simple and the 200 simple that happened well 24 days ago basically. Um and the results right here in in terms of the dispersion of returns is going to be best looked at by this green line which is the median return by day after the golden cross happened. The white line is the realized results for this particular one that we've already seen. Now remember returns are mean reverting to be fair and we have seen this current run uh run a little bit hotter than what you typically get for this.

So, I'm looking for this to kind of mirror, you know, the previous one in the sense that it goes sideways until it catches up. Remember, it's around about day 35 to 40 when things typically take the next like major leg up. That would put us in, I believe, middle of this month of uh of October. And that's when you typically get another, you know, step up uh somewhere around about 20%, again, medium return. Yes, you can see more than that.

It's definitely possible, but overall, that's typically where things start to get going. Again, on top of that, we can also see if we really fast forward out a lot more, like a lot more to day 180 rather than day 90 because day 90 it's still kind of flat from day 60 to be fair if you're, you know, following the chart right here. Now, while it's not pictured, if you were to fast forward out to day 180, that's where you typically take another step up and uh and that's where the medium returns are about 35 12%.

Um, so it's kind of quiet between day number 60 to, you know, let's say day number 120 to 130ish region. Then things start to, you know, get moving again by by that 6-month mark. Now, of course, we've also seen the silver cross happen. I even argue that this is the better cross. We also have a lot more iterations of this happening, especially over the past uh 10 years. Um, and this one, you know, it typically not I mean, it it will always notify you earlier and generally it's just it just better to watch honestly.

Um, this one also kind of front running the general results of what you typically get. Again, green is going to be the medium return from all of the, you know, all the previous attempts. And then the white one is our realized return for this current silver cross. And it is running a little bit hotter than what you would typically expect. We are already on day number 43 on this one in comparison to the golden cross, which is a lot fresher.

And Bitcoin is up 17 spot.1% from the initial cross. You know, around this time, Bitcoin typically up around about 9 10%. To be fair, and again, it's around about day number 90 when things start to take another step up. So, you know, we are 45 days away from that. So, that kind of put us in what, like middle of November. So, what I'm trying to say is is that the period between middle of October and middle of November, that is the highest probability period to really see Bitcoin take another, you know, another step up if it is going to do that, you know, which I do think that it is.

Again, on this channel, we go off statistics and probabilities. It is more likely to happen. It is not guaranteed to happen. Nothing is guaranteed, you know, by the sheer definition of it. I also want to say when it comes to the silvercross, this current one that we had was a more was uh started off a little more shallow. Those ones typically are the better ones to follow, just for what it's worth. Um, but going on from there, I do want to go over, of course, something in uh incredibly important, which is the weekly time frame.

That one obviously reclaimed that last lower high, the last trending lower high, I should say, as well on the crown pivots indicator. That happened officially last Sunday. This week it is held above for one closure which is good obviously and we can go ahead and reference the statistics regarding reclaims and again once that reclaim happens we can then study you know what Bitcoin typically get does 30 days out 60 days out 90 days out you know 12 you one 120 and 180 days out right there as well and you can see right here um you know typically 30 days out which again we just started the clock last week you know 57% of the time you're up about 3 and a half% not a humongous amount but yes you know that does I mean it's better than not obviously uh 60 days out you're looking at again a higher probability in fact the probability goes up of being green just above 60% in this case with a medium return of 9 spot 2% not bad in my in my in my humble opinion oh and by the way if you add a daily filter as well meaning that the daily trend is also up then yes uh that goes up a little bit more to 10 spot that would be the sort of like pale blue result right here the gray by the way is just like a average week it's just kind of like your general control Sorry, sickness speaking right there. 90 days out, you know, similar thing right here.

Once you get to 120 and 180, that's when things get a lot more interesting. Now you're looking at 70% of the time it is going to be a green period when those two things are coalescing. The medium return just from reclaiming that weekly high is 21 spot 7% and 21 spot 9%. the condition where we add the daily filter as well makes the 180day um returns massively improved I would say too up to 26 spot 1% again these are medium returns there's going to be variance around these some a little bit more some a little bit less but overall just another thing that suggests there is a higher probability that Bitcoin is going more up from here and look I I understand that a lot of this stuff can seem like it's um you know maybe it's repetitive uh ultimately it's it's it's actually not cuz we look at a [ __ ] ton of different setups but I understand, you know, it's it's it's similar in nature.

But here's the thing. The market outside of our little bubble, at least the way that I look at it, is still, you know, it's it's it's not even neutral right now. It's still somewhat pessimistic. You know, you see a lot of big creators who are still fighting this rally, who are still trying to be heroes, you know, shorting everything and and calling like for little pullbacks or big pullbacks here and there. And realistically, this is just not the time to be doing it.

We've been saying that ever since this rally uh got began got begun got began back around 64,000 bucks. That was one of the big turning points right there. Um, so and and on top of that, there's just like not even that much general interest in this whole sector to begin with. Again, this is the crown optimism index. I should say it's just, you know, something that I've been creating with Claude uh on more objective metrics that I think matter more and represent market, you know, sentiment better than your traditional F and G index.

But yes, uh, you know, this one runs negative 100 to plus 100. And right now it's I I still have it at negative. You know, and I think most creators on YouTube have a really good insight into this because you can see it in your numbers. You know, the subscriber numbers are pretty, you know, is a pretty good gauge by the way for, you know, figuring out if if if people are truly interested in this uh in this sector or not.

Uh as well as views and I can tell you right, you know, straight up right now, uh those are still more or less flat. You know, not not a humongous change right there. It has seen a slight uptick certainly from the lows. Absolutely, there has been. uh as you know as you'd expect when this is trending up here too. But is it you know is it is it is it in any like crazy fashion? I would say no. No. Uh it's not. Anyways, uh what else do we have here?

Let's go look at some couch odds. I do want to I do want to acknowledge a few things for October. Of course, the October uh markets for October's high uh I do think are quite interesting right here. I'm probably not going to bet on this one myself. I would like to bet on the $90,000 one. I'm guessing that these odds are going like way far away right now. Let's actually see uh for the current moment I'm on the hourly ones.

Let's go back to the monthly ones. I really like the hourly ones for like you know just plain. Yeah, above 90,000 bucks. Uh you can buy those yes contracts for 57 cents above 92.5 42 cents. H probably would just buy the 90,000 one. Again, you know, very very likely to get above there. Um, even just looking at the red and ribbons right here, remember that the these uh these gray dots which have always been hit on the next subsequent dildo after reclaiming the midband um are at 91,908 and a half.

Technically not 92,500. So, could you get a wick above theoretically? Yeah, it's very possible for sure. Uh but not as much of you know as I guess as likely as just 90 Well, obviously I mean you're going to hit 90,000 bucks on the way there. But my point is like we don't have like something that's obviously saying, "Hey, you have a really high probability of this. It's very likely to get around that region, but you know, if it doesn't get above that official number, then it doesn't get above that official number and you lose that money." Uh, but yes, right now you can buy that for 42 cents.

Um, like I said, I'm not doing these runs right now. I've already made my bets for October and the end of year. I am betting on Bitcoin getting above both 90,000 and 100,000 bucks by end of year. I've already done those um uh over here. But anyways, if you are in Sydney Kowy, as always, we do have a nice little show link in the description below. If you trade literally just $25 in trading volume now, they will give you up to $500 in free trading credit.

Uh that is going to be a limited time promotion. Um and then it'll go back to I think $50. Um and then you can still, you know, get up to $500 in free trading credit. Um yeah, basically that's it. And let's I don't know, should we go over Oh, no, no, no. We have a few more things also of, you know, of note here. 3-week time frame is closing today for CME. And if it closes anywhere above 92,500, it will confirm a bullish engulfing dong.

And as the name implies, a bullish engulfing dong is incredibly bearish. [laughter] God, the amount of people in [ __ ] uh X who just have had labbotoies um and castrations is beyond me. It is a cesspool similar to LA, but [laughter] but with less of the [ __ ] smells. Um you know, again, just another good thing here. Obviously, we've already seen the weekly do that a few weeks ago uh back uh in the middle of September.

We saw the bi-weekly do it um on the last week's closure. Now, we're seeing the 3WE uh time frame do it. And then, of course, the quarterly did it uh recently as well. So, we're seeing a lot of these higher term time frames in Gulf. Again, just long-term it sets in the overall direction. And by the way, I completely forgot to mention this as well yesterday, but the quarterly time frame did close on Ket's RSI with some hidden bullish brings right here.

So, hey, not bad. Uh, again, all of this stuff makes me incredibly bearish. I am ready for Bitcoin to make some new lows, baby, because tomorrow here is the real analysis, [ __ ] faces. So, here is where Bitcoin made its high from 2025. It was on the 5th of October. Oh, I've read my Bitcoin for Dummies book, and I know that the low must come in exactly one year after the high. Thus, the low will be in just 3 days from now on Monday, which hey, possible.

Um, it's possible Bitcoin comes down from here to 57,700 uh in these next three days. Anything's possible. I've all we've all seen crazier things. Um, I don't know if I'd be betting on it right now, but yes, if you've been reading that book, then you know, and if you know that you know, then you know that you know that you know, and that means that you are going to be making all kinds of monise. Anyways, um yeah, I think that's pretty much it for me on Bitcoin here.

Uh did we get through all of these? Yeah, we got through that. Got through that. Uh the crowd. Yes. Uh well, I guess we kind of already alluded to this, too. Yeah, I think we're good there. Again, short-term, um we could actually just very briefly go over Bitcoin short-term 12-hour time frame, reconnect with the red 5 EMA. I I do think Bitcoin could easily come back down, um you know, around these, you know, the weekly lows. remember that 6-h hour 55 EMA still has not been tested despite initiating the corrective setup back last Monday or this past Monday I should say.

Um so at some point you know that will be a major draw for price. I don't think that Bitcoin really makes new highs without uh without testing that first. Um but hey uh ultimately I still remain with even a short-term medium-term bullish bias on Bitcoin as long as above that last trending higher low which is basically 80,000 bucks both on the 6 hour time frame and the 12 hour time frame. Obviously, the daily is going to be back at this low at $75,000.

If you want to be super conservative, I don't think that that's necessary in this case. Realistically, you're about to get all major moving averages in a fullon bullish [ __ ] posturing once that green 55 EMA crossed the upside of that blue 377 EMA. I would say it's formality right now. But with Bitcoin already putting in hidden bullish diverence on character RSI, look, I think it's sideways enough from here. I think that Bitcoin is going to trade into the 90,000 bucks uh territory this month.

It's possible it goes to 100,000 bucks this month. I guess I I'm not betting on it personally, although actually I'm curious. What is Koshi giving those odds right now? Let's see. Let's see what they got on these ones for October. Um God, we're going to need more rows here. Uh 10 cents. So you got a 10x payout. So if you bet kind of want to bet just 10 bucks, [laughter] you know, I'm I'm going to put 10 big ones on that right now.

See see what happens. Make 94 bucks for a ride. Oh well, we shall see. We shall see indeed. But yes, that's pretty much all that I got for Bitcoin. Um, shortterm, I mean, [ __ ] man. Don't even have any issues as long as it's above even this week's low for God's sake. Uh, that that would also include a test of that 6 hour 55 EMA, the corrective setup more or less being fulfilled at that point. I think we're going to close it right there.

I I appreciate all the well wishes. I am feeling a little bit better, just uh just underslept, but the show must go on and I think we'll be back to 100% on Monday, which I'm very excited about. It is uh it is a pleasure to speak with you as always. We'll be shutting off this Friday stream. We will as always continue with our live stream schedule Monday, Wednesday, and Friday with regular video uploads on Tuesday and Thursdays.

It always blows my mind when people will comment on my regular video uploads and they're like, "Man," or they're like recently they were like, "Yeah, I'm so glad you're doing these instead of the live stream." It's like they they're there's always regular video uploads actually literally every day. Like you just wait for those. It's all good. You don't need to do the live stream. It's it's cool. Like not going to be mad.

It's all good. Uh but yes, anyways, we'll end things on that note. Just want to wish everyone the best as always. Take care, much love, and we will back be back. Uh I will have a couple videos actually on the weekends. Uh and again, just reminding you about the sale for October. We're running all of the lifetime indicators on a sale for 20% off with the code lifetime in all capitals. One word, lifetime. Uh 20% off.