Post CPI NQ Futures Commentary \ Monday Analysis Delivered - 07/15/2026 transcript

Good morning, folks. How are you? Welcome back. All right, so here we have it. Um, let's scroll back here just a little bit. And down here give you guidance on that 29,395 that they would likely see that. We here it's about to be equal lows. They would sweep that and then come all the way back up to new week opening gap. And you'll find that in Monday's commentary and analysis. And the yellow line is that lower volume imbalance on the daily chart I was referring to.

And that low right here it swept through that. Uh, and I'll show you why that was important uh, with this level here. I'm going to go back up to the daily chart. So, for now we'll take that off, clean this up a little bit. So, we had price trade down below those relative equal lows. We rallied up. A little bit of a opportunity here to to go long. Liquidity resting here after long consolidation overnight on on the end of Tuesday morning Eastern time.

Then we had this vault higher here on the CPI number. And I that line that there was two forms of liquidity here right before the 8:30 news driver with the CPI data. And then the high that formed. And I felt as I indicated yesterday in the lecture and the execution on. This is first instance of fair value gap from Tuesday and it's the suspension block. See right there. And we had buy side taken there. We had several attempts to go higher in here placing all this right above the first instance of fair value gap.

And I went short, you watched that execution. You can see it uh yesterday's information. Then we used the body here indicating that we are now respecting this as an inversion fair value gap because we had a close outside of it right there. Make it a little bit bigger. See that candlestick closed below first instance of fair value gap. Okay, there's no gap prior to this one forming. And because we're looking for lower prices to take out the low at 8:30 right before CPI data.

There's 8:30. Here's the swing low right there prior to it. We already ran up a little bit. So the idea was I was looking for shorts. I took some partials here, did some uh measurements on event horizon which was this low and the old low. Right here. So between this low and this low, the algorithm will likely reach to halfway of that. That's what you see here. We went wicked through it. And then we created this wick.

I told you that we needed to see a close below that. If it didn't do that, it's bullish and we're likely to go to the higher side. And this inefficiency here, I said that we didn't want to see this become an inversion for a value gap while I was still holding the final position to offset that short rate below the um lowest low that I had outlined yesterday, which was 29,000 545 as indicated here. But and then it came back and stopped me out on the final single contract.

And that's fine. You know, $16,080 is uh it's still good, right? So, rallying up, comes back down in and we also left the body above this wick, which was also indicative of a change in the direction. The delivery, it's all of the uh hallmarks that I teach with real order flow. You don't need to have any kind of look inside the candle and look at raw numbers of many people executed around a particular price level cuz that's not indicative of future results.

Okay, so um the market creates this buy side and balance sell side inefficiency after creating a close above that wick after doing the damage down here. So, we have two things changing the direction. We couldn't close below half of this wick. Look where the bodies are. Then this acted as an inversion for a value gap. So, this would look like this. It won't be a long video, by the way. It's it and we rally up. But it rallies off this.

Why should this act as an inversion for a value for a value gap here? Because we had a close above this wick. Okay, so when we were dropping down we were using it for the purpose of the chain of custody where price moves lower from one PD array to the next and every PD array that would fail and indicate an opposite direction in price. As long as it's affording lower prices by not having a close above that, lower prices are in order.

This gave us a crossroads where it needs to go below that on a closing basis to support continuation to take out that low. Though that low again is all of this price action. And that's the lowest low right there. Okay, so that's where that came from. You can watch all that described yesterday in real time with execution. We got on the YouTube channel for free. And we ran rallied up took out buy side relative equal highs.

We dropped back down in. All of this consolidation in here it's being utilized and now look at this buy side imbalance or side inefficiency. So you want to look at the wick high because there's no volume imbalance at the low up to this. And look where we're seeing all of this. We have this close below here after one single event like this or we're up against two. This failed to keep the bodies below it. This failed to put a body below it.

So we had a shift in market structure here. Inversion fair value gap. Look at the strong displacement on the upside. We have buy side taken. We don't need to close above it. And we pulled back down in. Okay? So when we drop down in inside this inefficiency here it shouldn't be colored like that. Let's look at this this way. There you go. So we have a breaker here and you can look on a lower time frame sub 1 minute. And we might do that in a minute.

But don't hold it to Don't hold me to it cuz you'll be able to do it on your own. But uh we end up using this here. Supporting price higher. Then we went right back to respecting first percentage fair value gap, which is the suspension block over here. So now it changes its characteristic back to its first utilization, which is it was bullish the way it was presented. It's a buy-side imbalance sell-side inefficiency.

If bullish prices are in order and it trades back down into it, it should support price going higher. But it's not in this area here. We're looking for it to fail and become inversion fair value gap. Or let me say it this way. I was looking for that. And you can watch your video annotations and analysis and commentary and executions. So this is now become a bullish reclaimed fair value gap. And it's picked up its first utilization there and we'll change this to dark green so that we we can keep track of everything.

So it finds its willingness to trade down into here. It's reaching into this gap. Okay, so we have institutional order flow entry drill here, which is a partial entry into but not even consequent encroachment. Like this. And so there's consequent encroachment of that buy-side imbalance sell-side inefficiency. Couldn't get down into it, but if we show Here's that level, institutional order flow entry drill. Institutional order flow entry drill.

A strong reaction to the upside. Trades up to here and then wilted goes lower. This was a complete closure and return back to um the opening range gap. And then we see weakness here, trades back down into first presented fair value gap from Tuesday. Look at the bodies in here. And then we capitalize this order block. Well, not order block, bullish fair value gap. Rallies higher. You have buy side up here. A little bit messy in here in the last hour trading.

We draw down one more time into this first presented fair value gap. Utilize it here in Asia. Interesting. Interesting time. And then reaction taking out buy side here. And again, the draw is new week opening gap. I gave you that on Monday. We trade into it here. I tweeted around this time last night saying that new week opening gap for NQ was hit. And that's probably guesswork. >> [laughter] >> My normal facetious stuff.

The uh pricing imbalance sell side inefficiency here. We trade down into that. There and then we re-capitalize, go higher to consequent closure of new week opening gap. And we finally get a gap closure on um the small little portion of price action that was part of this new week opening in And then we broke lower, trade back up in, failed to go to consequent encroachment, and then we dive deeper, taking out that sell side.

And now we're just hammering around. So, the next order of business, okay, cuz I know you're all you're all asking, either uh proverbially, okay, in other words, if like you're wondering, uh and some of you already tweeted to me, "Okay, what's next?" And I get your enthusiasm. Like, yeah, I got I got that you know, you want to see what unfolds next. Mr. Wizard's going to show this and show that. Um but that again is a signature of someone that is not really matured, and you're not curing as a independent thinker.

You're depending on me to point to the next thing versus how about you go through your charts and you come to a expectation using your model and your skill set and your present understanding with experience. And then compare and contrast when I do share something, that way you'll be able to grade yourself in terms of "I didn't see him you know, revealing this. It was it's something that it wasn't in agreement with with my analysis." So, it's not so much as a like a a competition.

It's a compare and contrast. That way it helps you measure your progress. All right, so I want to zoom out a little bit. I want to show you something. All right? So, I don't I don't think that we're going to avoid going higher. I believe we have a little bit more unfinished business up here. But, look at all this price action here. See all this? We have sell side resting right below here, and we have this single toothpick one little chopstick holding up all this price action.

Okay? So, my attention is right here. I I suspect [clears throat] that that might get traded to before we close the week out. And my focus is that. Okay? So, there's a couple scenarios that could unfold here. We could just drop down into this with the PPI number and then work higher. So, it's kind of like a two-stage delivery. Or let me zoom in here cuz I want to make sure I got these levels right cuz got a bunch of hardy warriors out there trying to solve the mysteries of the old man and his less than uh I like eyes.

All right, let's put the quadrants on and that'll be enough for this one. Okay? So, in here uh we're looking for price to maybe explore into that. And So, in here um if it's bullish still when it drops down there, it'll respect the upper half of the bodies and leave something open on the downside. Okay? Um if we rally first to poke our head above new week opening gap and fail to go higher and we start to break down, then that's where my draw is for today.

Uh I don't I don't know before PPI, folks. I know a lot of you like to think that you know, I know everything. Uh the only thing that I know that's important and the most important thing is that I don't know everything. And you're not going to know everything. And there are times when the market volatility is so scripted against you and the probabilities are shifted so far away from you that you need to be aware of it.

And that's what PPI, CPI, FOMC rate announcements, non-farm payroll, those events you don't have you don't have all the things going in your favor to help warrant participation. Okay? So, what we like to do is like a sniper. We set up our whole, you know, our hide. Okay? Our hide is where we we station ourselves and we wait for our kill shot. So, what does that mean? We're sitting still. We're trying to get to a vantage point where we can see the mark walk right into our crosshairs and we're not chasing it.

We're not pursuing it. We're sitting still. It's going to walk right into our crosshairs and then when it makes sense to do so we pull the trigger and engage. We're not reacting. We're anticipating. We're letting the market walk right into our model, right into our setup, right into our entry entry mechanism and then we manage it accordingly. So, these lines on here, I'm going to take these off because they were just pertinent to yesterday's CPI buy side and sell side liquidity.

Okay, so they're no longer salient. I clean the chart up all this business here. And now I'll leave all this stuff here. All right, so we have a large pool of liquidity still resting on the here and here and here for sell side. So, how we use that in relationship to the PPI number here in about a little less than an hour after I get this video up so that we can have the commentary. Um remains to be seen. Okay, so I I hold no expectation cuz the week and the announcement I gave on Monday sweep this to go up to there.

Um You you tell me. >> [laughter] >> Did your chart do it? Cuz I think I think if you're honest it did, okay? And that's enough to be content with. And and that's what I'm trying to foster in you as a trader that's developing. And hopefully you found this one insightful and I'll check back with you later on today with another follow-up or so. Be careful.