Seasonality Is Way More Important For Your Revenue Than You Realize transcript

how come your revenue is tanking how come everything seems to be working those two questions come up all the time especially in younger business in relation to a surprising answer if you don't see it coming and that answer is seasonality seasonality is a way bigger factor in many e-commerce businesses than most folks recognize and today on the interferes podcast I am going to tell you all about what I see here working with entrepreneurs why I think this is so important to internalize and how to plan your Revenue plan your ad spend and not freak out when the seasonal headwinds and Tailwinds hit your business let's dive in younger businesses and by younger I I mean businesses that have not experienced say three full years of serious ad spend and by and by serious I should Define that too serious means um when your ad spend grows to a point where it becomes hard to really push it up a lot more you grow you grow you grow and you kind of hit a plateau and it becomes a a big challenge in the business okay and it doesn't even have to be out spend it could be any kind of way you're acquiring customers but but brands that have experienced less than three years of that kind of thing often have a really hard problem which is planning forecasting your business related to the calendar it's um forecasting your business related to the calendar is really challenging forecasting the business in general is a very challenging exercise but a really important one I've come to believe one of the most important ones in e-commerce not even to be right but just to plan your business accordingly but uh for while forecasting your business is really important there is this massive factor in your forecast that is very hard to see until it until it happens which is seasonality and uh the truth is in earlier stage businesses the future is simply not like the past enough for the past to tell you about the future uh in earlier stage businesses that are growing and things are going well what happens right is that like you launch a new ad and suddenly your ad spend goes from $10,000 a month to $40,000 a month and then you do some more ads or launch a new offer launch a new and goes from 40 to 75 or 100 or whatever and the business just keeps changing and so those changes happen all the time and you get used to it and what happens is as you uh as those changes happen in the business you start to see that uh or you start to get used to them and you start to get used to spends and and you don't recognize that those changes are happening for all kinds of reasons a lot of times you know you'll have a big increase in Revenue at the same time you launch some new ads ads and you can't figure out exactly why that's happening because the ads seem to be going well but you're not like oh these are amazing or whatever and what you don't realize at the time is that actually launch Those ads right when there are massive seasonal Tailwinds and so you're pushing forward and and so everything is going great everybody's excited and you build a new forecast and you go oh the future is going to be amazing everything is working we're crushing and then suddenly you run into these massive headwinds but you don't know their headwinds is the problem you think you're doing something wrong and I've had this conversation so many times with entrepreneurs where you just go like wait a minute something something is going wrong in this business and we can't figure it out and every ad we launch doesn't work and and every offer we try doesn't work and our and even when we do discounts the moment's not as big as we thought and our Black Friday is not as big as we wanted to be you know whatever like all of these things happen and you can't figure out why it's not H it's not working as well as you thought and you miss forecast and it can be a real big problem right because you order inventory to meet a forecast and maybe you've got a whole bunch of inventory on the Shelf now and it's just really really hard and all along you have this sense in the business that something is wrong again this is a conversation I've had so many times with entrepreneurs everybody's looking at each other like we just can't seem to win no matter what we do what's going on and the answer is that you the answer you don't see coming is that seasonality is a huge gigantic insane factor in the business and until you've gone through it two or three years it's very hard to see it coming it's very hard to know what to make of it it's hard to plan around it and it's and uh and it just becomes this massive factor that you you really don't see coming at all like I said so um so this is the first thing I want you to recognize about your business I want you to stop right now and think is there seasonality in my business that I don't see coming some businesses have this in a way where it's just really obvious that you have really big seasonality and you don't actually have to ask this question very much but you start to go uh you start you know for example highly highly holiday oriented gifting business businesses tend to have this kind of thing happen where they they uh they just they recognize that they're going to be a gift oriented purchase and so they're going to do well sometimes um health and wellness Brands know that you know January is a really big time for them end of December into January Etc and that maybe holiday is not as big Etc but there are much smaller ones that are happening all the time in businesses that people just don't see coming and uh and I can't even really give too many specific examples because um because it it can be so all over the place uh well here's one I worked once with a with an apparel brand that was a headwear brand and they had this really consistent increase in spring into summer and decrease uh I think it was in really q1 before that was the lowest period of the year and they they they you know you looked at the revenue chart and you looked at like their contribution margin you looked at the like Rass on Facebook like whatever everything pointed to this same thing and and year after year after year as they grow they keep they kept as they grew they keep kept having them and the revenue chart would always look the same where roas would get really bad in q1 and spend would go down Revenue would go down and roas would be really good you know well above profitability in Q2 during that kind of peak moment and revenue would go up as well at the same time and so what this brand seemed to figured out eventually was that their their headwear was particularly appealing in the spring and in the summer right and so they kind of knew that but they didn't really plan the rest of the business around that very well they were spending too much in you know January February and not enough in spring and summer and so what they probably should have done was tried to hold a more constant Rass and have uh you know their performance be about the same throughout the year but just spend less in q1 spend more in Q2 and so they that way they kind of maintained some profitability goal all throughout the year I'm gonna come back to that point in just a second but the point is it happened a few years in a row but they probably didn't really realize how big of a factor it was because it didn't the product didn't seem that seasonal I mean people wear they was selling hats like people don't people wear hats year round certainly I do right and I you know and so why would a hat make such a big difference at at at spring or summer versus in winter when you just I don't know you're wearing you're wearing hats all the time especially you know this this headwear brand was based in a warm weather climate and so again it wasn't getting that cold in the winter and people just kind of wore like you know slightly warmer clothes in the winter or whatever and the point is it's was very hard for them to see it coming until it came and so their spend plan didn't really reflect a deep internalization of the reality of seasonality and this is really the thing that I want to get to many Brands simply don't take this seriously enough and what I want you to hear more than anything else in this episode of this show is that if you do not Truly Deeply internalize this issue in your business what you will do is you will fight really really hard and grind really really hard to squeeze squeeze out eek out a little extra Revenue in your low moments because you're like ah we got to generate more value here and probably you will not do enough work and planning to actually maximize your big moments because it will feel like okay it's easy right now we can sort of relax a little bit and that's exactly the wrong way to approach seasonality if you've listened to my show for a while now and I I hope you know that I do not bring on sponsors that I don't personally use with my clients which is why I think of a sponsorship as as much a recommendation as a sponsorship and that's also why I'm excited to recommend to you and to introduce you to my newest sponsor Billy B ly and you can get to their website at B.L the link is in the show notes silly my newest sponsor is simply put uh drastically upgraded pixel for your meta ads that tracks the user and conversion data on your store better than any other alternative with 100% serers side tracking and what that means is when you install Billy on your store the user event tracking on your store will get much more accurate which means your in platform attribution will be more accurate which is very helpful on its own but also by giving meta the most accurate data and the most total data you also feed its machine learning better which improves optimization and performance and I know this because Billy first reached out to me about six months ago to sponsor my show and I told them I'm interested but I want to test it first so I installed it on three different stores that I work with and every case 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the native Shopify meta pixel install it is an absolute no-brainer should stop what you're doing and go install Billy right now which you can do by going to B.L it's bi. the link is in the show notes to install Billy immediately here's the key point if you recognize the seasonality in your business you really internalize that then you should plan everything around your marketing calendar your spend your product calendar all those things with seasonality as a major factor now if you don't have a a major amount of seasonality this is a smaller issue I get that right but again check this in your business look at your historicals and if you're earlier stage again this your historicals might not reflect this very well because you just it's hard to see these big dips and uh bumps in the Revenue the Peaks and valleys in the revenue if you don't have that much history okay um but one simple thing you can do and maybe this will be a helpful practical step for you maybe this will be helpful practical step for you is to um go to Google Trends and type in the main categorical search term for your brand if you exist in a category if you're selling desks right like if you're selling desks I don't know if there's any desk seasonality but go to Google Trends look at the Last 5 Years uh in your country that you are in and search like buy desk like buy buy a desk or desks for sale or something like that go find those terms and look and see if there is any consistent seasonality to that and and you know the E easy example of this is if you look at a brand that's in a in an obviously seasonal category like swimwear right like if if you go look and see uh about swimware you you'll notice very clearly very certainly that uh that there is a seasonal Trend to swimwear and your revenue is very very very likely to reflect that demand curve based off of that search volume instead of me saying this theoretically here let me just show you what I mean okay if I pull up Google Trends over the last five years on I thought of the swimwear example a second ago so I searched the term bikini okay there you go bikini clearly a hyp specific product uh and that somebody might be looking for okay that would be that would have reason to be highly seasonal if I just Mouse over I look last five years I'm in the US last five years what you'll see here very clearly is that bikini search volume goes up and down on exactly the curve that you would expect right and so in March bikini swimwear has a little spike in well it's 2020 so that's kind of a weird year let's get out of 2020 2020 some crazy stuff happened don't know if you remember that but in March of 2021 it starts to pick up stays High all the way through June starts to go down by the end of July and end of August I've already finished the main summer season and now it goes down through the fall into winter and maybe by winter it's starting to slowly pick up again as people are starting to shop thinking excitedly about the day when it will be less cold then go outside again to the beach or to the pool or whatever it is and that same Trend follows every single year and here's the point when you look at a trend like this it is unbeatable the headwind is so strong that you are simply not going to really win if you're are a bikini brand you're not going to really win in the fall and in the winter now if you're selling bikinis you probably know this right because it's so obviously part of it but what I've noticed is that many Brands don't recognize how big of a factor this is in their business so go do this same exercise look for the core categorical Search terms and see and what I want you to begin to do is even if you don't have a lot of historical sales data you can begin to plan your Revenue this way because what you'll see is that is that your uh Revenue generation is going to follow that demand curve in the same way almost for sure almost for sure it's going to follow that in in somewhat of the same way and so what do you do about this well this is the first thing that you do okay number one you plan take more seriously seasonality hear my warning here and start by planning first look in your historical data and see if you see any of those Trends okay second go to the Google Trends search that I just showed you okay because all you care about is relative volume you don't care about Tam so Google Trends is a perfectly good tool here it's going to give you relative volume for any term that you care about okay so so go check that out and see what you what you find there if you go and and look for the core core term there and then begin to plan your Revenue like that as you're forecasting your ad spend this is what I mean by plan as you're forecasting your ad spend as you're forecasting your inventory buys throughout the year assume increases and decreases seasonally relative to those moments okay assume significant increases and decreases relative to those moments now this gets tricky if you are again like more holiday oriented um I think about when I was at FC Goods we sold wallets made out of baseball gloves um I've said this before right but there were they're basically 50 days give or take five in the calendar that really really mattered for the business overwhelmingly the revenue in the business happened in the lead up to Father's Day and in the holiday season and that was like I think 75% of the revenue throughout the year came in those 50 or 60 days because it was a highly giftable product Father's Day and holiday drove all the value and we figured that out at some point right we planned around it and we figured out that okay we need to make uh we we are going to assume that our revenue is going to spike in those moments really drastically and is going to come down in those other moments but before that before we had planned on it what we did was we tried so hard to drive Revenue throughout the rest of the year and so when I say plan the first thing I mean is forecast right forecast the business for those seasonal moments but the second thing I mean is don't just forecast it but actually think about your marketing calendar and think about that marketing efforts you're going to make um seasonally uh think about those as always always trying to ride the Tailwinds and not fight the headwinds what I mean is like when we were at FC Goods we would try to do these like special releases between um major moments right we do these special limited edition releases and try and drive a bunch of value we do product releases and do all these different things between these major moments so that we were trying because we were so frustrated you know you're it's if it's February in that business and you're just watching your Revenue trickle in at a couple Grand a day and you know that like a couple months ago you were doing 30 40 Grand a day in Revenue right you're it's just so frustrating because you can't get your ads to spend profitably and you don't know what to do and it's just a mess uh and so you're sitting there going how do we drive more revenue and you look at the period the down period and you think if I could just make the down periods bigger I would win a lot better but I want you to consider the problem there if I can make a down period in my business uh let's say I'm going to do $100,000 uh on a down period okay if I can make that period 10% better then I am going to drive an additional $10,000 and I am going to kill myself to do it okay but of course and you see where this is going if I have a seasonally High period where we we were going to do $500,000 in a month okay and I do 10% better I've now driven additional 50 Grand and it probably takes just about the same amount of effort to do it okay and so if you spend your time trying desperately to make that down period bigger then you are going to be uh really spinning your wheels but what if instead you just accept the reality that your tail your headwinds are going to be really hard to overcome seasonally and instead put all of your efforts into things that are going to make your Tailwinds bigger so you start to think instead wait a minute what if I did my limited edition release actually in the runup to Father's Day so I created another marketing moment within that what if I took the 20 or so shopping days in the Father's Day season it's really like 15 to 20 something like that and I had really good marketing moments in each of those days I had great emails to send every one of those days and so I did a limited release in there and I did a promotion in there a gift with purchase and then I did a sale and then I did a you know uh we'll pay your priority shipping for free and then I did another new product release so limited edition release Here whatever and you thought about how I can really maximize every day in that calendar what is very likely to happen is and in Creative development right what if you took all of your energy in February and instead of developing new creative in your ad account to try to make your Evergreen spend bigger there what if instead you took all of that extra energy and said we're just going to accept our current ad spend we're going to just spend the you know $1,000 $2,000 a day that we can possibly get through here and instead of trying to turn that one or $2,000 and spend a day into $2,500 or into $1,500 or whatever it is we're instead going to try and uh and and make it so that when we're spending $10,000 a day in two months we can actually spend $155,000 a day we're going to generate tons of creative and tons of offers to make that moment bigger to throw out that moment then you can make that moment a whole lot bigger um by by uh putting all of your effort there and so that's what I mean by plan just last night I was with a friend of mine who had grown a big and successful e-commerce business and he had done that a lot with Talent from the Philippines filling major roles in his company and what he told me about it was exactly what I have always said when I talk about my sponsor more Staffing which is I just don't understand why a company that is already remote wouldn't go pursue talent in the Philippines for their e-commerce business it is such a win-win across the board that it just makes so much sense and he was saying that he was uh his business had been transformed by incredible talent in the Philippines and I hear that story all the time from people who work with more Staffing more Staffing can help you locate recruit train and onboard incredible Talent from the Philippines for your e-commerce business across all parts of the business that's the marketing team operations customer service whatever supply chain anywhere in the business there is access to incredible talent and here's the simple value proposition you will find highly talented people with great resumés in the Philippines who you will pay a high rate relative to local rates in the Philippines but a low rate relative to rates domestically in the US which is a win-win you attract incredible Talent you also protect your Opex and the cost of your business everybody wins that situation and you can end up generating a really awesome business in fact more Staffing was founded out of a company that had staffed up to like I think it was 20 folks in the Philippines alongside a us-based team that was much much smaller they built the whole business on that and they saw that value It produced in that business and could produce in a whole bunch more I use them personally I have now five team members might even be six and they're just awesome they're a great part of the team and uh and I found them also through working with my friends at more Staffing so go to more now.co there's a link in the show notes more now.co to get going finding an onboarding incredible Talent from the Philippines for your business today as I said before if you are growing a remote team there is simply no reason not to at least take a call look at some resumés and see what that can do for your business when I say plan I mean first accept part of this is Cash planning honestly inventory planning accept the reality that you are going to be slower in those months except that you may even lose money in those months I've dealt with another seasonal business that for a long time was not profitable for 10 months out of the year and then they were highly profitable and put 10 to 15% on the bottom line on an annualized basis because their November December was so profitable okay and and so you can do that you can actually lose money for 10 months a year and then be profitable in November December so that's what I mean by plan assume that reality in your business hold on to some cash don't reinvest it make sure your bank account is in a spot where you can sustain some lean times during the during the seasonal headwinds okay and build your whole calendar around that and resist this is number two maybe maybe this is 1A I don't know resist the temptation to overspend in the bad moments to force it to happen instead of doing that go try to make the big moment bigger that's the best way to plan around seasonality in your calendar okay so that's number one plan uh accordingly and and and again sort of one a would be um keep cash in your bank account for those moments One B would be to think about this even on the level of your promotional calendar and think about how you can uh approach marketing moments in a way that's going to make those seasonal moments bigger so that that's what I mean by plan plan forecast build around the business number two and this is kind of related to that don't freak out don't freak out don't go firing people don't go this is is related to planning but when you have those moments rece accept them accept that reality and don't freak out instead assume that's going to happen uh try your best to just uh accept the reality and uh and keep your head down on making the next moment bigger again this is sort of this is very much related to planning but it's really important and I'm saying this especially for earlier stage businesses that haven't seen this it's so tempting to think something is fundamentally wrong we're really screwed we we got to fix it there's nothing fundamentally wrong with your business there really isn't so just don't freak out just stay steady keep working on the big problems sometimes you know uh I've I've argued with Taylor holiday about this a little bit sometimes there's an emphasis on like daily forecasting daily planning and if you get behind on your ad spend you got to make uh drastic actions to to go solve the problem and I understand that mentality I think in some businesses it's a really good idea especially as you get larger um then then you you may have to do something like that one concern I have about that idea is that I think it can lead to a kind of short-termism and in relation to this seasonality issue and this can actually be true for all kinds of issues when you when you run up against challenges in your business most challenges in your business do not get solved quickly they are hard problems that's why you're running into them that's why they're challenges and so they require larger efforts and so yes sometimes if if the cash is dwindling enough you got to just run an extra sale and get rid of stuff and move inventory off a shelf I get that but many of these problems that you are going to run into are um are actually harder to solve they're going to require larger more serious creative uh challenges uh creative iterations they're going to require new offers going to require new products they're going to require new uh new marketing moments whatever it is uh new you seeding efforts influencer efforts email effort whatever and they just aren't going to happen quickly and so by not freaking out when things are getting bad again this is a more General principle Beyond even seasonality uh you can put your head down and say how can I solve the larger problem that is going to move me forward with a bigger swing as opposed to making a small change here and there again make the small changes if they're going to work right like like don't sit on your hands either uh but uh but and if there is something you can do that requires relatively little time and effort and might make a real impact by all means do it but at the same time uh take the largest l so number two don't freak out number three okay number three uh as I said alongside making the uh planning and making those moments bigger when you have Tailwinds is what you can try to do to fight seasonality okay is you can think about is there a product development uh answer to this problem in my business business can I generate products that are counter cyclical to the seasons that I'm currently have right so imagine this bikini brand and that you know that I mentioned earlier right can you is there some way for you to develop a product that is still within the realm of swimwear I don't know I don't even know what this would be or maybe you just go broader apparel maybe you started with bikinis but you start thinking about how do we make our way into the rest of apparel can you go and think about how to create products that actually um themselves bit into different seasonal Tailwinds than the ones you currently have let's take FC Goods FC Goods is a better example okay if I wanted to make FC Goods bigger at the time again while it's made out of baseball gloves maybe something I would do is try and capture more of the baseball season moment so not just may into June but like what about April opening day when Baseball fans are there is there a product that I would maybe buy for myself not just for somebody else like a like a Walt made out a baseball glove maybe a lower and uh lower barrier to entry price point something that I could buy for myself S as a baseball fan to commemorate the baseball season or to get started and get enjoying it that would be maybe one way to think about the problem maybe maybe instead of that even you think about Mother's Day you think is it possible for me to generate a product that is more appealing to women than than than a leather wallet made out of a baseball glove that could capture same of that same gifting energy but could actually grab Mother's Day as a gifting holiday uh instead that would be the other biggest gifting holiday of the year right the three biggest are are like you know the holiday season bfcm into Christmas uh plus fathers and Mother's Day those those are the three biggest ones so maybe we could generate some kind of product that was more appealing to a female baseball fan or something like that that would that would capture that moment now I don't know what that is off the top of my head right but uh that's maybe the way I would think about that problem so can you think about this from a product development angle if you don't think about it from a product development angle it's almost impossible to beat the headwinds and the Tailwinds that might actually be okay there are plenty of businesses that do Awesome by capturing large Tailwinds so you may not need to actually do this again this may be spinning your wheels to solve a problem that doesn't really need solving at all that actually it would be better for you to think more about uh don't try to beat the seasonality that you're currently dealing with but instead accept it like I said earlier and again just do everything you can to make the current moments you have bigger and bigger and bigger until that well really dries up many people will abandon that way too soon don't abandon it too soon keep pushing hard keep attempting to do everything you can to make those moments bigger before you abandon that uh that that plan okay so uh so accept it uh so number one plan number two don't freak out number three um product development as another solution and number four uh there's one other thing I would think about for seasonality which is there are some things you can do to try to make your smaller moments bigger that don't require Herculean efforts okay and the most obvious example of this is running a few extra promotions during the year to do this and if you think about the idea of a promotion right the idea is you bring the price down think about what price is for just a second price goes up when there is a lot of demand and not that much Supply okay and so what seasonality really is is a way that term all I really mean by that is um Peaks and valleys in demand and so when demand goes way up you probably don't need to Discount as much now actually I think again one way you could potentially if there is no constraint on Supply right so think about this if if you have plenty of inventory it actually may make tons of sense because to run a sale during a peak moment because like I said that will actually make that moment even bigger if you've got tons and tons of demand and no constraint on Supply you can actually bring price down a little bit and probably generate even more conversion off of that demand okay now if you're going to run out of inventory you should do the opposite you should never discount anything and you should maximize the the contribution margin you're going to take on every piece of inventory that you have okay so that's the case but in the lower moments when there is a decrease in demand a decrease in demand may also uh uh for you generate a decrease in price and that's the way price works right the price uh is this holds this equilibrium between demand and supply and again most e-commerce businesses aren't truly Supply constraints so that side of things is not as much not as important in the equation necessarily again sometimes it is but uh but a lot of the times it's not you have enough inventory whatever and so you can go and and partly make your lower moments bigger by running a few wellth thought through sales and this is I think one of the best uses of a sale is to um generate a spike in Revenue in a lower moment that makes sense to do it on um uh where where you're not going to go like torpedo your Brand's value or anything like that this is very common in apparel right clothes go out of season and the idea is there's a decrease in Supply or excuse me there's decrease in demand um and you've got some Supply left and you need to move that turn that inventory back into Cash And so there's a Sal section of a website as uh as clothes that are going out of season need to get moved and it's an effective way to do that without hurting the Brand's brand equity and so that that's basically the way I would I would think about this same thing if you want to make your lower moments bigger instead of absolutely beating your head against the wall to try to make your Evergreen ads work better for you in a moment of low demand instead what I would say is what can you do to spike your demand at least a little bit by by uh by running a thoughtful well- executed sale that doesn't eat up your entire marketing team's efforts so don't do that don't do what I just said at the cost of better marketing during your Tailwind moments so if it's going to cost you better Tailwind marketing don't do what I just said if your team is too small if it's too much of a lift don't do it but if you are have a well executed well thought through uh plan for your Tailwind moments okay then you can then go and think about the same thing for your headwind moments and think okay I can drive some additional revenue and every little bit counts I can do again a product release or whatever it is and every little bit counts and the truth is those moments can still be pretty good in decrease in demand doesn't mean no demand and so there's still something to capture there uh there's also ways in which in an ad account you can do this too if you keep hammering away at your Evergreen ads it's possible that they're going to get very low spend in your uh headwind moments but that by having them ready to go in the ad account you've got more bullets to fire during your Tailwind moments and that ends up being really useful as well because then you'll get a bunch more spend on a bunch more ads when that time comes and so so the Evergreen efforts during your tail or during your headwind moments the Evergreen efforts during those times can actually create value during during your Tailwind moments that's the way I would think about it okay I would think about how do I do things that are going to multiply their value in those key moments okay so let's just recap really quickly recognize the reality of seasonality in your business it's a bigger Factor than you think recognize it and after you've recognized it then do a few things number one plan okay number two don't freak out number three what was number three oh product development product development is the pathway that's so funny I forgot number three product development is the pathway to potentially uh solving uh sub uh seasonality if you can do it in your business it it's really hard it's not an easy problem to solve but but if you can do it it can be a really good way to go number four um think about uh some moments some promotional moments during your headwind moments okay those are the four things to do above all if you listen to this episode and take one thing away and it's that seasonality is a really big factor in your business and don't freak out and plan for it I'd be very very happy that it'll get you really really far all right that's it thanks so much for watching for listening today don't miss my new sponsor Billy it's bi. to go get uh better tracking on your meta ads and of course as always my good friends at more Staffing are part of the show I'm so grateful for them virtual systems can be helpful virtual professionals can change your business last night I was with a friend who was telling me the same thing that I say all the time which is he just doesn't know why you wouldn't uh go for great talent in the Philippines if you're already a remote culture in the first place it's a clear value ad in the business go check those two out and if you want to work with me please that at a jf.com you can email me at podcast a jf.com and I would love to hear from you on Twitter andrewj Ferris all kinds of great episodes coming up as usual make sure you subscribe wherever you're watching wherever you're listening talk to you soon