My Model On NQ NFP Friday transcript

Mhm. >> I'm sitting here talking thinking that the microphone was on. >> [laughter] >> You know, I've done that before on live stream and talked for hours. So, anyway, what I was saying was I think we're going to go down and take out that regular trading hours opening range gap low here and gun the low formed from nonfarm payrolls price run that formed right in last new day opening gap, which was yesterday Thursday. Just have to make the low of that.

Don't read too much into that because you know, apparently certain days of the week these aren't my concepts, they're somebody else's that's passed away. And or other days of the week my concepts don't work. So, you decide which day of the week you're going to side with whatever logic the internet tells you about me. >> [laughter] >> The market has traded up into the high of that opening range gap for today, which is where we're trading at the opening range gap high at 9:30's opening price.

See that? It's also the high of that daily bias on the balance sell side inefficiency. And it's the daily volume imbalance, part of it, the upper portion of it, the one I shaded in in gray, and I've been talking about for like 3 weeks now. So, I can bring this stop down a little bit, take some of the starch out of those pants. Now, I can get stopped out at 480 bucks. Um and again, they didn't want to take that liquidity out of up here, which is interesting.

So, that means they're going to come down for the folks down here. And I'm aiming for uh [sighs] maybe a an acceleration down to Thursday of last week's first presented fair value gap. All right, and this is the Crayola model. It has lots of colors. I'm competing against heat map, book map, everybody's liquidity maps. Um >> [laughter] >> Everybody's got to get have to have a gimmick, right? So, you dress your chart up like this, and it's the Rainbow Bright model.

Sparkles, jazz hands. So, uh we're going to see if this uh this works. >> [snorts] >> High of the new week opening gap, the purple shaded area here. And we want to see a nice acceleration, really aggressive, come down and take out the sell side right below that low. Right there. >> I was watching this volume balance of trying to see if it's going to spike up into that. If it keeps it open and starts breaking down, that's that's weakness.

That's real weakness or strength for lower prices in reference to my position being short. I'm going to lower the stop. Put a little bit more in the paycheck. Never market replay. Never, never, never market replay. If you're teaching with a market replay, you don't know how to trade and you should not be charging people at all. We're seeing some discount sensitivity at that shadow. It's nesting PD arrays. That's what you're seeing here.

Okay, but it'll it'll fold through that in a moment. And go through the might get a little bit of a bop a pop, you know, off of that full gap closure, but I'd rather see it kind of like like a hot knife through butter, just tear through it and aggressively run for those stops down here. Cuz they really took it up higher and the longs have their stops sitting right here. They're trying to hold for the whole day. And uh they want those relatively equal highs they left intact.

And Phil saying, "Not today." "Not today, Arya. We're coming down for your stops, girl." Who's Arya? >> [laughter] >> Who is this guy again? these names from? All right, let's see what we do here. 20% of the weekly range it found its way down there in non-farm payrolls delivery. See how we did that? There, we got down to about over 25% retracement of the weekly range. 30% of the range is down here. So, we could, you know, in an ideal scenario, get really overzealous and sell off down to that level.

That would be wicked wild. I would love it. Um I'm just looking for it to give me 490 half, maybe. Let's go. Now, we have a full gap closure. But, again, I want to see it completely crush and go through that. Remember, there's non-farm payroll liquidity sitting right below 29,500. Now, remember my concepts don't work on the days that they're my concepts, but the days that they do work, they're somebody else's concepts. >> [laughter] >> So, it it's hard to tell what day of the week we're on.

Just got to go on the internet and see what everybody's saying about me. But, uh let's see if we can get this to deliver to daddy. All right, we're going to look for registration opening range gap low to provide some kind of premium sensitivity or as you would call in the retail resistance. We're at middle of the new week opening gap consequent encouragement. My stop is nowhere near in jeopardy at all. Uh as soon as you take out the low at 29,502 I will bring the stop down to 543.

Lock in a little bit more. I just don't want to do it right now because we could get a little bit of a weird pop and then still drop lower. So, I want to keep myself from being stung by that. >> [snorts] >> Now, think you're the market maker, okay? Why take it down this low? I know you believe it's selling pressure. I get it. But, let's just for of sake of argument, why would you, if you were a market maker, why would you let them keep their stop loss right here, and you came down past the opening range gap low?

You came down to the low of the new week opening gap, which is fine, it's normal. But, why would you let them have that? Why would you let them have that? You know you wouldn't do that, and they're not going to do it either. So, just relax and watch it happen. Never market replay. If you're teaching with market replay, you shouldn't be getting paid. Learn to trade. >> Okay, one more attempt to try to lure longs in. And they'll build more liquidity right below that 29,500 level.

Allowing me to get down to hopefully it can spike down on Thursdays August 27th. First minute of pre-market gap. That would be cool. 30% retracement. Weekly range is 29,471 quarter. So, that's still in contention as well. Like to see it get real heavy here and dive down. You got to use the Deadpool technique. You remember? Your subscription base may not have it. You just got to grab a hold of that candlestick with your mouth and like just pull it down and pull it down towards your target.

Not every platform has this. And your subscription level may require you to upgrade to it. But that this is the Deadpool technique. It's your dead ringer for getting to your targets if you grab your mouse and you pull the candlestick down. You got to make sure you're right on top of the right candle. Otherwise, if the candle's closed it doesn't work. You got to be on the open candle, the one that's active at the moment.

So, you got to make sure that you you're really paying attention otherwise it won't work. Okay? And if it doesn't work, you know, just blame it on uh somebody else's stuff that I rebranded, right? >> [laughter] >> Come on now. You know you love it. So, we're touching the low of the regular trading hour opening range gap low again. And it's like the last kiss before the train leaves and take us down. Clear that out. I may be a little overzealous with my target.

So, I think what I'll do is I'm going to put six just below that to cover there. All right, and that that should accomplish the method. Works every time. Works every time. >> Well, like I say, it works every time. So, we're going to bring the stop down, take some starch out of these pants. Bring down a little bit more, make sure daddy gets a better paycheck. It's Labor Day weekend after all, you know, got to make sure you got some bread.

So, we're banging the low of the new week opening gap there. We cleared out the low at nonfarm payroll. Price flow and it may come back and snatch me. Um it was also the high of that daily volume of balance, that blue shaded area there. That's what that is, that whole big blue area. Remember all that. So, we're getting a lot of uh reaction there on that level. So, we'll see if we can get another dive down. I'm okay if I get stopped out $5,300.

That's okay. It's quite okay. You want 10 grand? You got to risk being stopped out. There's no reason for me to give up more than 5,000 unrealized profit. See if we can get down there a little bit more. >> All right, so it looks like it's going to go from my stops. I'm going to close it here. It takes 6470 out of that. And if it goes down, it goes to my target, which would have been you know, down here. I'll just chalk it up as uh you know, coincidence.

It's not bad. Not bad for the old man. Building the position up here. There's that. And there's that. Okay, so using the high that daily by side imbalance side efficiency targeting non-farm payroll liquidity resting right below that low that turned right on yesterday's new day opening gap. Find that Wyckoff. That turned right there on new day opening gap. Find that. Find that. I want to see it trade up to 540 just because it'll make me feel better about having closed the position and then uh not letting the full stop occur.

But where it's at and what it's doing now, I'm not interested in participating anymore. This is good a picture of everything that's happened today. All right. So, can you identify what I was trading? Market maker sell model. Second stage redistribution. Original consolidation. Smart money reversal. Low risk sell. First stage distribution. Second stage redistribution. Taking out that low right there. So, again, that that's the model I like to trade.

If you've ever If you were studying the mentorship level stuff I put on on my YouTube channel. Uh 2016 2017 playlist. Um I have a charter playlist as well. And uh I have some models in there and I teach it's very close to I'm ever going to teach openly the model I I trade with predominantly, which is like a universal model. And it has to do with trading the market maker model. I like the the second stage distribution or redistribution of a sell model and I like the second stage reaccumulation of a market maker buy model.

And there's another example of it here. On nonfarm payroll. Uh it took a little bit of time. I have to wait for the first hour of trading on nonfarm payroll when we're on a holiday week like this, like it's Friday going into a long weekend. I I kind of demand a whole lot more. I could have participated in all this up here. Um but I just didn't trust the fact they kept those relatively equal highs over here. It just it felt a little uncomfortable shorting there.

On a 3-day weekend, you know, binge is going to happen. It'll be 4 days for me. I'm not going to be doing anything on Tuesday. I got a lecture for you already planned that I'll probably try to produce over the weekend and I'll schedule it to release I don't know, probably like 11:00 a.m. on Tuesday. That way you guys can watch it after you get done doing your AM session trading. But I think that's going to be it for today.

Um hopefully you you learned why I tell you to avoid non-farm payroll weeks after 11:00 a.m. Wednesday Eastern time. And if you didn't, you know, keep messing around with this week each month on Thursday and Friday of non-farm payroll and you'll you'll get handled up. >> [laughter] >> You'll get sorted pretty quick. And hopefully, you know, you don't have to go through that type of learning process. Just listen to the old man.

Trust me when I tell you that certain things are going to be more adversarial towards your well, productivity and your development. And other things are better. So, I'm trying to stay here long enough to see if I can stay down here just for moral victory. I just want to see if it would have got to my target. It's okay. If it hits it, wonderful. I can go in, kiss my wife on the cheek and tell her I said, "The old man still got it, girl." >> [laughter] >> And you know, she's going to say she's going to wink at me and say, "Honey, you know I know you got it.

I know I know, girl." She knows what side the bread's being buttered on. I'm going to give it till 6 minutes after 11. If it doesn't do it by then, I'm going to sail off into my 4-day weekend. Wishing you all a very pleasant weekend on top of it. This news about 28 minutes long, so it shouldn't take too long for YouTube to do its thing with it. It's inside a little sibby right there. You can see it. But that volume balance is too low.

So, here to there, a little tiny little sibby. That's like that last line in the sand for if it's going to drop down and get into where I have my limit order and maybe touch the uh Thursday's first resistance for by gaps high. It's that little area right in here. I'll draw it for you cuz in case you're struggling to see what I'm talking about. We'll do it in white, so it's a strong contrast. Okay? See that? And Well, just have to leave it like this.

It's a cliffhanger. >> [laughter] >> If it does, if it doesn't, it doesn't make a difference. I want to uh wish you a very pleasant weekend. Have a safe weekend in the States if you're celebrating Labor Day weekend. Get your last little cookout thing going on and try not to get sunburned and I will touch base with you Lord willing next week by way of video and I'll tickle your Twitter whenever I get back online next week.

Until then, be safe.