Post PPI NQ Futures Commentary \ Weekly Analysis Delivered - 07/15/2026 transcript

All right, then folks. Welcome back. Welcome back. All right, so I gave you guidance this morning on how to read the tape on NQ. And I'm going to go over that quickly. I don't have a very much I don't have much time to to do very much more than just quick little review. Uh this is the new week opening gap. And I gave you two parameters uh because PPI number was coming out at 8:30. Uh I wasn't certain which one of the PD arrays was going to go for.

So, whichever one was going to get hit first, then it would be acting as a counterparty to the other. And long story short, um we were here. And I said Well, actually it was back here. I said it could drop down to this, then send us up into the new week opening gap, or it can go to new week opening gap and then drop down into this area here. Yeah, I elected to have more interest in this because we had all this price action.

Let me take this stuff off quick. See all this? All this entire bit of price action is being supported by this little bit of a toothpick. Okay? Think Think of you Think of your house, okay? Or a building. Okay, maybe you don't live in a house. Maybe you Maybe you're a nomad. All of this being supported, okay? By one 2 by 4. That's not That's not really uh strong in terms of uh fortifying this big structure of price action.

So, it's likely to come back down in and revisit this area. And I stated that we had sell side resting below this lows here. And then I reminded you over here. Okay, so um I have responsibilities today as pop pop my grandson and I will be uh visiting one another here, so I have to get going. And I was unable to stay with the idea, but I simply used what I gave you. Um looking at how we rallied. The 8:30 right there, boom.

Okay? And this is consequent encroachment. This is the midpoint of the new week opening gap. So my interest was seeing them use the 8:30 PPI number as a Judas swing. And if it would have dropped down into this, I would have viewed that as a Judas swing, the run up to new week opening gap, and then look for a lower run. Maybe getting down into first percentage of fair value gap. And then the little liquidity pool at 29,545 half.

As it is, the fact that we didn't get to that's one correlation of the new week opening gap. And if you haven't watched the other lectures from Monday and Tuesday, go back and watch them, okay? And you'll see all these levels and where that's drawn from. So, when price started running up during the the release of the PPI number, it kept making these higher highs. You see that? This is staging. Meaning that they'll run it up, create a short-term high, and then that liquidity gets taken, and it becomes counterparty for shorts.

Why? Because there's buy stops for traders that are trying to short this thing. There's always some goober out there that thinks they're going to be able to call the top. And then there's those few that can. The high above this high gets absorbed with the smart money shorting against those buy stops. Okay, that's the real absorption. Uh order flow, guys. This high here has liquidity after it's a sharp break down like that.

Buy stops above that. Smart money pairs with that. Same thing here, short-term high. Runs above it, they're accumulating more and more, and right here they're accumulating short positions. With the expectation that the market's not going to breach the halfway point. Now, I know what you're going to think and ask. How do you know? How do you know it's not going to go up there? Well, here's the unfortunate discomfort that comes along with trading.

You aren't going to know. That's why you have to use a stop loss. That's why you don't over leverage, okay? Uh you practice this, you study, and if you've not been paying attention over the years, I'm literally telling you in advance how to anticipate specific price runs in price action. And then they happen. Okay? So, stop trying to equate your this jointed perspective over real-time price action and your inflated expectation of where you want to be as a trader.

The difference in the chasm between those two things, the right now skill set you have, and then the hopeful skill set you hope to obtain in the future, hopefully not too long in the future for most of you cuz you're you're not very patient. But you're going to have to submit to whatever amount of time it's going to take for you to get there. You have to just simply engage price action. Watch it. Tape read it. Demo trade it.

Log it. And condition yourself looking for these things, okay? I I see so many people that are just buffoons, okay? And just because they don't have the wherewithal to stay with it because they want it to be easy. I didn't promise that it was going to be easy. I promised it was going to be the best. And it remains the best. There's nothing close to this, okay? You either have the market itself and then you have what I teach in terms of interpreting what it's going to do in the future.

And it's literally copious amounts of evidence before the fact in public domain where people can see it, they can weigh it, they can listen to what I was expecting and how it should behave. And then, boom, it happens. Okay? So, how many times you have to keep seeing these things before you realize that the old man probably has an idea what's going on. Okay? Just trust me. If you stick with the process, you'll learn. You'll get there.

Okay? But, let's go into the details. The fact that we couldn't get to consequent encroachment was the premise. I don't want it to get there. Let's say it that way. So, I think it's going to fail. So, where do I want to be building my shorts? I want to be anywhere between this lower quadrant of the new week opening gap and this octant. Now, it can color outside the lines a little bit here, and that's fine. That's permissible.

I just don't want it to go up here and touch the halfway point. Why? Because if it's bearish, it won't even go there. Remember that? That's the real order flow rules that I teach you. That you can visually see in candlestick prices. That's it. You don't need to have any kind of gimmicks. You don't have to do any of those buy my indicator stuff. You don't need that. You don't need to buy my charting software package. Okay, you don't need any of that stuff.

None of that stuff is required. The open, high, low, and close and the time axis down here. Okay? It's pretty simple, isn't it? That's pretty simple. It's a It's a short list of tools and resources for you to be able to do what I'm doing. Okay? The rest is just experience. And that, unfortunately, comes with a very high premium cost because that means you have to put down all your preconceived notions and suppositions about what you think price is based on.

What makes the market go up and down? Is it buying and selling pressure? Cuz if it is, I'm predicting all the buying and selling pressure before it begins. Think about that. So, right away I'm going to tell you, I'm not special. I don't have ESP. I don't I'm not clairvoyant. But I can tell you the way I look at price action, I'm light-years ahead of everything else. Because they're going to react where I'm anticipating.

If it does something, I know what I'm going to do. If it does this, I know I'm going to do. It's if then. If it does this, then I'll do that. Else, I will do this. So, I gave you that this morning. I also told you on Monday that we would likely see those relatively equal lows at point of some Caleb, which it hit perfectly on Monday. This one we need to hit like a handle and a half. So, five ticks, five six ticks. And that was it for regular trading hours on Monday.

I said, I think it's going to go down there to go up to back into New Week Opening Gap. Will we see that? Okay. And this morning I told you that I think we're going to trade down into here. But I wasn't certain and no one's going to know for certain. Okay, this is the part that you need to be aware of because there's so many people out there trying to be mystical. Okay? They're trying to be uh wrapped in numerology, okay?

And they're trying to create a almost like Scientology, okay? It's crazy. But you don't need to have all these numbers. You don't need to have all this stuff, okay? You see you need to know what it's likely to do. And you won't know. Nobody knows what CPI and BPI number is going to do. You don't know where they're going to take it, higher or lower. No one knows that. I've been right a few times, but wrong more times than not trying to predict the initial run and direction on these reports.

And I've been doing this for 33 years. You would think I would have better luck just with chance. But I I don't. So, what I have to do is I have to wait. I build parameters like I did this morning. Either drops down here to go up to new week opening gap, and that's the run for CPI, or it goes up there to drop back down into here, and then go to the sell-side liquidity pools that I gave you in this morning's short review video.

It's only 19 minutes or less. You can watch that on twice the speed, and you'll still be able to hear me articulate what it is I was outlining here, and you see it in your chart today. And if that wasn't good enough, you just watched at the beginning of this video a sped-up version of me executing on the whole basis of the covering right here. Okay? So, >> [clears throat] >> I can't wait for that uh opinionated piece that's going to come out about me.

I'm going to hear about this day and Tuesday's trading and Monday's trading and all the analysis concepts that panned out. It's kind of crazy. But we're going to look at how the executions in here. So, you can see how I'm building my position in between the lower quadrant and the upper octant, but short of the halfway point consequent encouragement of the new week opening gap. So, look what's going on. So, I'm treat I'm treating it basically as a premium PD array, and I'm using the order flow ideas that I teach in regards to how if I'm bearish and if the market is bearish and I'm getting myself in alignment with the with the algorithm.

I want to be selling short in the lower half of this cuz it's going to protect and deny any trespass with the bodies in the upper half. Now I'm going to go one step further. If I'm extremely bearish because we've already met our objective for the week which was going up in here from Monday's analysis. So that that that finishes my week for being bullish. I I don't care so much about being bullish beyond that. I'm not saying we topped.

I'm not saying that we can't see higher prices. I'm not saying that we're going to go lower straight from here either. I don't know that yet. Okay, it's a whole lot of tomfoolery now. But I'm just picking my shots and I'm sharing in advance what I think may happen and you guys get the the privilege and the I guess the amusement of watching it pan out over and over and over again. So I don't want to be seeing price go up to the halfway point.

Why? Because that means it would be indicating it's extremely bearish. Okay? So with that, you can see how we ran up in here and all these entry points here I was pyramiding. I didn't want to extend that down so far yet. The comic steals the thunder from the video, doesn't it? No, dude. I got my own charts. >> [laughter] >> So as we were creating these runs in here, I'm adding, building up positions cuz I'm seeing this as a swing high forming and I want to be in there building that up.

And I add one more here. Add right there. You can't really see it. There it is. Right underneath the little cursor thing and I'm adding more there. And it just so happens that my stop loss it traded to the price of the stock but the spread did not permit it and the quote-unquote volume in the exchange and pairing of orders did not permit that execution there. And it went lower. Now, if it would have stopped me out, okay?

When you trade, you're going to see these little pieces of mercy extended to you. It's not frequent. It's not often, but sometimes it happens. But if it would have stopped me out, okay? I would have went back in and build up another form of what I was doing over here all right in here. We had a small pool of liquidity. We have this gap here right before this high is taken out. So, this is going to act as what? Potentially inversion fair value gap.

We see initial agreement of that because we can't even touch it with the bodies and we're consolidating in here. And then we get the 9:30 whiplash where it runs up real quick, trades into the small inefficiency, but it's also a breaker. But I had so many things on my chart and the time it takes for me to annotate these things, I would miss being able to put, you know, new positions on or building this position larger put that like, which is what I did here.

Okay? So, we traded above the buy side right in there and on the way down I'm catching that. And then we break lower. We have a suspension block here that's bearish. It runs through that and it goes one more time right up to the lowest octant. You see that? So, look at the high on that candlestick. High comes in at 966 half and that's the lower octant level. Stopping right there dead in its tracks. That's probably random and it's a conspiracy.

So, the market drops right from there. We break lower and then one more time we open trade right up into the so a uh bear suspension block there. Right to the tick. Stops dead in its tracks. Look Look at the Look at the close on this candlestick right here. Ready? Watch Watch the close. Actually, I got too many things on this chart. Let me start it right there. Okay, so the close is 942.75, okay? 942.75. The high on this candlestick comes in at 29,943.

So, went one tick higher, which is fine. It's It's completely permissible. And it breaks aggressively. Now, as I built a position up in here, as we went lower than the short-term low, I took a small little partial there. Just the you know, pay the trader as I teach you. And then we broke lower here, I took another partial below these lows. And then this one here, I I felt like I wanted to take something off in the event that it was going to reverse and I'm going to walk and go for these highs back up into the new week opening gap.

I just took one off there just to satisfy the itch cuz I started feeling a little bit of a concern about the trade. So, I just took one off to satisfy that. And you'd be surprised what that does when you're in a trade. Just take one of your contracts off. If you feel weird about something or if you start feeling a lot more concerned about the outcome of the trade. Soon as you start feeling that, the the only remedy there is is either completely bail on the trade or take something off.

You'll be surprised at that little tiny little cookie, that reward, that little I got one more thing from it before it took it the rest of the open unrealized profit away. That That's kind of like what it is. And then it rallies up here, goes right into that bearish suspension block and then sells off aggressively. And my focus right here, as as you saw at the beginning up here, was right below the 9:00 I'm sorry, the 8:30 CPI number liquidity.

And it's relatively equal low, so you know that's a candidate that's high probability. So, right there I I had a small position to exit there, but I was like I I'm running short on time. I have to be able to get things ready so I can go see my grandson. And I changed it to 14 contracts of the 16. And then the market has a little bit of a pause in here, then breaks down aggressively, and I had my limit order right in here.

You'll see it right there, right below constant single candle we were talking about at the beginning. Um that's the only thing supporting all the price action. Half of that would have afforded me the final exit, and then it went lower, went down into previous day's first pivot of the fair value gap, and then rallies up from there. Breaks lower. Uses that inefficiency. Institutional order flow entry drill. Breaks aggressively here.

I'm shopping right now, so I don't I don't see this. I have no idea what is going on. And then it drives all the way down right below those lows that we were looking at yesterday. And I mentioned this morning that that's where the sell side is. And look where it goes, right beneath that. One more time, sinks its stangs into it there. And then breaks aggressively even lower, and this is where we're at now. So, here is that daily volume imbalance at the low.

I remember I was showing you on Monday. So, on Monday we were talking about this volume imbalance from a daily uh perspective. So, watch the video on Monday. Okay, go back and watch the the uh the lecture I did for Monday. It's a little bit less than an hour long, but if you do it twice the speed, you'll be able to watch it like 20 minutes or so. Okay, I promise I won't have my feelings hurt because you watch the videos quicker.

But it trades right back down to that as well. So, to me, it kind of bodes well for a little bit more weakness, but I'm personally done for the week. I I've I've personally I've smashed it. I did pretty good this week for an old guy. And I'm going to just re- resign myself to just doing teaching lectures. I'm not going to execute any more this week. Um I showed you. I talked about it. I taught it. I executed on it. So, it is what it is, folks.

You know, at this point in the game, if you're not able to see that this stuff works and I'm not borrowing the logic from anything else, rebranding this, rebranding that. Find somebody else that's supposedly good at whatever I supposedly rebranded and renamed and see if they can trade as good as I'm doing. Calling it in advance in public format and then executing near the highs. >> [laughter] >> Near the highs, Jack.

Okay? So, you, as a student, should not be beating yourself up if you're not able to see these types of setups yet. I share them with you because, number one, it's fun. Two, you will learn by seeing the examples. You don't need an everyday 20 examples of it being done. It is needed to be able to see when I talk about how the logic should be implemented or how price should book going forward in the future. And then you see it happen and then you also see me going into a trade, managing a stop loss, managing the additional entries with building and and pyramiding it up.

Okay? This is a very high-end top-tier analysis concept and approach to trading today. None of you should think that because I can't do what he just did or me today, I can't do that. So therefore, I'm going to go do something else with my life. This is what you get when you've been doing it for about 5 to 10 years. If you're not comfortable with waiting that long to get to this degree of precision and knowing what to do and what not to do, you maybe trading isn't for you.

And there's nothing wrong with that. That means that you're being responsible. There's no reason staying in something that you can't be disciplined and have personal responsibility and over yourself and self-control. If you know that about yourself, you know, no amount of cheerleading or building around the the concepts in my own hands and my own experience is going to help you because you have a deficit when it comes to personal responsibility and self-control.

And you need to have those things. Those are very essential tenants to a long-term consistently profitable trader. If you can't If you can acquire that or shift into that mode of thinking and accountability for being a trader, then this is absolutely the wrong career choice for you. And that's the only time I will speak in absolution when it comes to whether or not this is for a particular person or not. Otherwise, if you don't have that problem or you can overcome it, this is absolutely for you.

And no one can say otherwise. It's just a matter of how much time you're going to put into it and how well you're going to work towards refining this craft. Because it is a craft. It is not a "Well, I put my time in. I watched your videos, so therefore I should know." No, absolutely not. That's like saying I watch all these NBA players and you know, I watched the Jordan era and because I watched all those games, I should be able to fly through the air and dunk on everybody.

It's nonsense. It's nonsense, okay? So, this is no different, but it's actually more skill required than NBA trading uh an NBA players playing basketball. This requires a whole lot more. Because you have to think about things. You have to weigh the consequences of it. On the on the court, these players just grab the ball and they just make a mad dash for it. They either get it or they don't. They have to change, break the ankles on somebody else on the other team, and then make another play.

So, they have to think on the fly. You can't just think on the fly here. You have to plan what it is you think price is going to do. Then you have to adhere to that process. And it's a strategy. And you have to hold fast to that strategy and that model even when it doesn't feel comfortable. Otherwise, you won't get these big long hauls. Now, let's close this video out cuz it's getting a little too long-winded. Um where would I have gotten out if I would have been able to stay with it a little bit longer?

That right there. That is the level we were looking at yesterday. And you watched me do event horizon to uh to take the the last portion of the trade off and then finally got stopped on a single on the way out. But that right there would have been it for me. So, all of this in here I wouldn't have had to sit through that. I wouldn't have got this last little piece down here. And that's okay. You know, if you're looking at this saying, "Well, if this is where you would have got out, you didn't get all this, bro.

You're slipping." If you're thinking that or if you want to say something like that, show me where you shorted the highs and added to it here and paid and paid. >> [laughter] >> Come on. Let's see it. You ain't got that. So, shut up. Until I talk to you guys next time. I don't know when that'll be, okay? Um I'll be tied up this evening. And then tomorrow morning, I don't know what my wife's schedule is with me. So, if there's time permitting, I will try to do a pre-market commentary.

I won't have any executions for Thursday and Friday. So, just don't If you're like hanging out just to watch them, just go and watch the other influencers and and have fun doing that stuff. But, uh if you're here to learn, then obviously if if I have the time and I can do it, I will certainly share a pre-market analysis. Otherwise, there'll be some kind of a teaching lecture tomorrow and on Friday. And then that's going to be it, wrapping up another good week with the old man.

And so, I'll talk to you then, Lord willing. Be safe.