Ben Cowen: Most Accurate Trader In Crypto Flips On Bitcoin transcript

I'm happy to drop the bear bias and and become a bull again. And I I think I will be a bull again going into 2027. >> Ben Cowan is one of the most accurate traders in the space and [music] he's still not calling the bottom. >> I would say it's probably 65% chance the low occurs in the future and 35% chance it's behind us. >> To him, a flat Fed is exactly when the next Bitcoin bull market happens. >> They raised rates in March 97.

They didn't touch interest rates again for 18 months. I mean, think about that. I mean, 18 months from a potential September hike. That's not until what, March of 2028. But for the most part, you can see these lows occur approximately every 4 years or so. And it's not a Bitcoin only thing. >> He'll name the exact price level he says the bears still need to test before it's over. I asked him point blank, is the bottom in?

And again, remember, nothing in this video is financial advice. It's for educational purposes only. Ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, let's welcome Benjamin Cowan to the stage. Ben, welcome back to the channel, man. It's great to have you here. Uh, [music] in a time like, you know, you come up a lot in my comments. You know, I think that historically the the crypto space as a whole credits you as, you know, one of the more accurate uh traders out there.

Um, so I'm glad to have you here in a in a world where I've had some other speculators on, you know, to see where we are in the market and which direction we're headed and things like that. So it' be really really good to get your perspective and I'm sure >> Yeah. Thanks for thanks for having me. It's a pleasure to be here. >> Yeah. And so we really appreciate it. So, let's start off with um kind of the question I guess a lot of people want to know and you can give me in in percentages if you want but um or [snorts] however you want to phrase it but I guess the first question is you know do you think that the Bitcoin bottom is in or more pain ahead? >> Yeah.

I mean I think um normally you know with Bitcoin the way it works is you have sort of like three major lows that occur throughout the midterm year. you have your your sort of your February low. Uh and if you throw my screen up and this will kind of help us determine the percentages, right? Uh you first have your February low that occurs essentially, you know, like February, January, you can see like in 2022 and of course in 2018 and then of course in in 2014.

So you have your February lows. That's kind of like the initial low in the midterm year and it usually spooks a lot of people. Uh but what often happens is it kind of sets up the like a counter trend rally, right? And and then that counter trend rally often will top sometime like in May or June. And then what happens is you sell off into the summer low, right? So you're you know your your um like your next major low that that occurs after that.

And I mean you can see you had it here in in 2018, you had it in 2022, and of course we've had the February low and then the summer low in 2026 as well. So, it's all kind of similar in that regard. Um, what what's difficult, right, and and what a lot of people are are kind of talking about right now is do we have to get the final low, right? So, the final low historically is the low that occurs in the fourth quarter of the year.

So, after you set the February low, you get your counter trend rally. Then you set the summer low and you get your counter trend rally. but they tend to stall out and then we go back down one more time and and really if you look at at sort of the nature of the recent rally that we had, you know, it was about a 40% move, right? So, it's not like it's nothing to scoff at. It it was a strong move. There's always a chance the low is in and we can probably I'll assign a probability to that in a second.

But what what I'm seeing right now is a 40% rally from the summer low. And so I have to ask myself, is that out of the ordinary? And I go back to 2022 and I say, "All right, well, in 2022, we had a 40% rally off the summer low." In fact, in 2022, Bitcoin rallied more than it just did. Uh, and then we still went down into the FTX low that occurred in the fourth quarter. And then in 2018 from the summer low, we also rallied over 40% more than we rallied so far from this summer low.

And yet, we still went lower in Q4. So, I think the difficult part about this is that like obviously everyone would prefer the low to be in um so that everyone can just get bullish and we can go back to like the good times and whatnot. >> It it's hard. I mean, after going through three midterm years uh in Bitcoin, it's difficult to just want to boldly declare that the low is in when I know that had you done that in the prior midterm years at this time, you would have been wrong.

Um, >> so I think that's kind of what's holding you back. In terms of probabilities though, it's not like it's clearcut. I would I would say it's probably 65% chance the low occurs in the future and 35% chance it's behind us. Um, and and the reason why I I don't weigh it more is because, you know, we had we had a a non-uporic top. And so, like, it's hard for me to know for sure how this bare market is going to play out.

The only similar one we have to 2025 is the one in 2019 where we also topped on apathy. There was no rotation to altcoins. uh quantitative tightening ended and then Bitcoin topped two months where QT ended in both 2015 or 2025 and 2019 and then and back then you know we only had a 50% drop which is kind of similar to what the drop we had. The counterpoint though is that we ended up going lower thanks to the pandemic and I don't know what would have happened in that scenario had the pandemic not occurred.

So, it's not like we have a lot of data points, but I would still say it's probably like 65% uh that it happens in the future, 35% in the past. If we get through October and there still isn't uh a lower low, then I would say those odds are start to favor the bulls, right? So, time based capitulation is what I'm more concern concerned about here. not exactly like a price that Bitcoin has to go to because I don't really think there's a price that Bitcoin has to visit necessarily for the low to you know for for the the bulls to come back.

I just think that in terms of time it would be in the fourth quarter and and so I think there's still going to be some headwinds for Bitcoin for at least another like month and a half. Uh but as we get further out into Q4 I imagine a lot of bears will become bulls and and ideally we can start the next bull market. Yeah, it's funny that you said uh a non- euphoric pop. I mean it it definitely felt like everyone went in in a matter of a couple days everyone on crypto Twitter and private groups went from being very bearish to like oh you know institutions are running the you know the October low front running the October lows and now it's it's bull run officially confirmed you know and um I I try to do my best also like you know getting I've not been doing charts and TAS nearly as long as you but trying to also just have a calm cool collected way of deciding when to back up the truck and when to come all in.

And you know, my number has been essentially breaking above, you know, like the 50 like trend EMA uh on on the weekly and we haven't done that yet. I think last week there was three attempts, you know, no closes on it, >> right? >> Uh and so, you know, to to some degree, you know, to my audience, uh it's like, okay, well, we had this huge run from, you know, 64 to 80. And you know, my I was telling them that like I'm still sidelined at on this run right now.

I don't I don't you know, I'm still waiting for the technical signal to to flash before I I have firm belief that we're, you know, an upward trend. Um so to some degree like you feel a little bit like when people are fomoing and everything seems bullish, you feel maybe slightly guilty for telling people to hold off and wait, you know, especially if that if that was a low and we just go higher higher. Um, but there's reasons that we do that, right?

Operating by like mechanical rules and things like that. Uh, and then also I'm in the same kind of camp as you. Um, I used to be I used to find try to find every excuse possible for this cycle to be different, you know, and I really thought maybe this last one would be, but I also thought the one before that would be. And that's why, >> you know, emotions and vibes have have, you know, really forced me to roundtrip most of these cycles.

And I decided this one would be very different. So, you know, when Fable 5 came out, I had to try to find methodology for me, easy rules I could follow that, you know, essentially protect you on, you know, they they they allow you to kind of buy somewhere near the bottom, definitely not exactly the bottom, and then sell somewhere near the top, definitely not exactly the top, but like at least get you into the the trend and then get you in and out when the trend changes, you know?

So, um, so yeah, I mean, like what has your audience been saying to you after this pump? Like are they are they they believe that you have like do most of them still believe that you you're right about this and that you're you know that the logic is sound or they a lot of them kind of like upset that they saw this pump and they weren't in the market maybe. >> Well, I mean I've I've said you know for basically the entire year not to try to time the bottom exactly anyways because it's kind of a fool's errand.

I mean kind of like what you said it's hard to know exactly when it's going to be and and at what price. What I do and what I tell people is to just DCA throughout the second half of the midterm year. >> Um especially below a certain risk level. Like so for me the cycle it was the.3 risk level for the the risk metric that I have. Um but I mean unfortunately that only lasted for about 5 days. So like I got you know I I think I got about probably 10 to 15% of the amount of Bitcoin I ideally would like to have for the next bull market. um you know, it's something I I I mean, there there's definitely mixed there's definitely mixed responses.

Like on one hand, if you only care about crypto, like obviously you don't want to be sitting out of any of the rallies. Uh but on the other hand, you know, there's been a number of other things that I've been bullish on this year that have just completely outperformed Bitcoin, right? I mean, like I was very bullish on the manufacturing sector coming into this year, very bullish on energy, and energy is continuing to put a new all-time highs. very bullish on, you know, just the S&P and and saying like, you know, the S&P will likely climb to new all-time highs just like it did in 2018.

And Bitcoin still was in a bare market in 2018 despite the fact that the S&P was putting in new highs even as late as September. And and so it's mixed. Like I I think that people that have like a more diversified portfolio across other asset classes, they've seen the gains elsewhere. It's not as big of a deal to sit out of a of a move by Bitcoin. If if you're 100% only interested in crypto, then obviously you're going to be a little bit more upset, but it's no different than the sentiment that was expressed back in, you know, March, April, and May.

I mean, there were people upset back then, too. And that was before I announced that I had started the DCA, right? So that was even more difficult because back in in April and May when Bitcoin was rallying basically up to the same price it's at right now um people were upset and I remember thinking well like this time would truly have to be different for for the low to occur in February. I mean like I I could get behind potentially a summer low especially if we don't go lower over the next like two to three months. like I could be fine with that, but a February low would have seemed way too early in the midterm year uh to justify, you know, sort of like a four-year cycle.

So, I mean, it's mixed. I I do think that the longer that this goes on, like, you know, people there's this like as you've seen it, right? Like anytime there's a big move up or a big move down, there's a lot of emotions associated with that. I think what people are kind of realizing though as time goes on is that like I mean Bitcoin is still it's at the same price it was like years ago is is kind of what we're getting at.

Especially when you price it in other things besides the US dollar. If you price it in like in terms of gold or in terms of the S&P 500 or something it's basically valuations that it was at 6 years ago. So like I have found myself I can't necessarily speak to everyone else but I have found myself you know sort of not having nearly as much urgency as >> prior time because again like it just Bitcoin hasn't really g given oversized returns compared to a lot of other markets at least not oh not over the last five years right not since say 2021 so I know there's still a lot of emotions tied up in every single rally and every single dump But we haven't really gone anywhere, you know, like in in a really long time.

And and as far as as far as people who feel like they're sidelined, what I would say is this, you know, every time that Bitcoin, as you say, I mean, every time it crosses the 50, uh whether you know, EMA, SMA, whatever, every time it crosses that, historically, the bare market has been over. Like once you get weekly closes above it, that hasn't happened yet. If it if it does happen, um so be it, right? Like it it would be like it would be like not buying Bitcoin in 2023 because it was at 20K instead of 15K.

Like that seems silly now, right? Like it seems stupid to like be like, "All right, well why didn't you just buy it at 20K instead of lamenting that you didn't buy it at 15 because it still went to 120 or like in 2019 not buying it at 5,000 after it had like a 20% weekly candle up, not buying it at 5K because you missed it at 3,000." Like yeah, like you people can be upset if if they want to be, but the reality is is like if you get the if you get the sense that the bull market is truly back, like you can just buy Bitcoin and still enjoy the gains probably hopefully for the next two to three years.

Um >> so I think that's like the counterpoint that I would make it the the bottoms like the bottoms and the tops are not where most of the money is made. It's in the middle of the trend, right? And if Bitcoin is trading at, you know, let's say a couple hundred,000 in a few years, it's not going to really matter if you bought it at 64K or 76K. Like, it doesn't really make a difference >> in the time. It's all everyone cares about, right?

It's all everyone cares about. But I I think that's another way to think about it is like like I'm looking at what I have and I've accumulated about like 15% of what I would overall like to have. I'd be willing to buy some, you know, at at, you know, even 80K potentially if if we start confirming above it and just say, you know what, I bought some at 60 and then I bought the rest at 80 and I'm going to just hope for the best, you know, and and say that this is when the this is when the confirmation happened.

I mean, there's still plenty of indicators that have not flashed like the MVRBZ score, the the realized price, the balance price, like none of that stuff has has triggered. And so I I think as as to try to be as objective as possible, I have to say, all right, every prior bare market, these did trigger at some point in the bare market. I would be doing myself a disservice to say that we can't do that this time just because I want it to be different.

Like I have to allow some room for that to play out even if it ends up being wrong. So, I will continue to think that that is a likely outcome. Unless we start, as you say, unless we get these weekly closes above, if we if we really start confirming the bears over, I'm happy I'm happy to drop the bare bias and and become a bull again. And I I think I will be a bull again uh going into 2027, regardless of what happens between now and then. >> Yeah.

I want to come back to the the S&P, the stocks, the these indexes that you're talking about or those sectors. Um but before I do, I just want to also just bring up the fact that like in pre previous bull markets. Um Bitcoin has just always been the leading indicator of like the market going up and the whole the whole total crypto market cap going up. But then you have you get into these like these other seasons like silly season altcoin season where let's say Bitcoin goes from you know now from now to 200k whatever like that's if you're just trading Bitcoin okay great that's great but like people like myself and I think you um I'm not sure how far down the risk curve that you go but you know for me historically I've gone like all the way to the stupid you know meme coins stuff like that too we're just and that's where like I've had like way bigger gains in in these in these bull markets than Bitcoin itself.

So, you know, Bitcoin if people are planning on being kind of more more paying attention in the trenches like that's Bitcoin going from 75 to 200 is just going to be the leading indicator of like altcoin season and things like where there's other opportunity to make not just 3x but like you know many many more as long as people are are having like a take-profit plans and risk management stuff like that too. I mean, I think there's there's validity to the idea that alt season can can always happen, but we also need the right sort of macro backdrop to allow it to happen as well.

Like last cycle, it it didn't happen. Um there wasn't a a sort of a durable rotation. Now, if you had been in certain altcoins throughout 2023 and 2024, depending on which ones you were in, you could have made a lot of money, right? But that's more of like a a stock picking type thing, right? rather than like a full-blown alt season where everything's going up, right? >> Um, so I I think that, you know, we're looking at a Fed that's potentially going to be raising rates.

And by the way, I mean, the Fed, while they might be raising rates soon, >> other places have already started raising rates. Like, you know, if you look at like Australia, New Zealand, I mean, they've already started raising rates, as well as some places in Europe, I believe, have already started raising rates. So, and the bank Japan, you know, they've been raising rates for a little while now. So I I think that um you know if monetary policy were to start to tighten again then we have to be aware that you know it it could lead to altcoins still underperforming for a little bit.

The question is is like if monetary policy does tighten again does it stay tight for the entire 4-year cycle? Right? Because this past cycle it was tight for the entire four-year cycle. So there was no rotation into higher risk assets. No durable rotation. Whereas the cycle before the tighter monetary policy phase only lasted for a very short period because the pandemic kind of justified looser monetary policy. So the question is is like you know could we have tighter monetary policy for the next four years?

I doubt it, right? Like I I mean I think we could have tight monetary policy for maybe another year or two, but I don't know. Like I I I would be hardressed to think it's still going to be the same thing, you know, maybe out in like 2030 or 2031. Like I I would think that by by that point something would happen to justify loose monetary policy. But the way in which I could be wrong about that is if this AI buildout ends up being everything people dream to be and more, right?

Like if if it if it truly is, you know, if it if it's what they claim, right? If it's going to be disinflationary, if it if it makes people more productive, you know, if all this stuff happens and the economy continues to hum along, fine. There might not be that reason for looser monetary policy. So, the way I think about the the crypto cycle is it's it's easier to start off with just simply focusing on on Bitcoin. And if at any point during the cycle, Bitcoin gives you a truly euphoric parabolic rally, right?

We did not have a euphoric parabolic rally in the last cycle, right? So, there was really no justification for a long-term rotation into higher risk assets. Now, if you again, if you want to trade short-term, that's different. I'm not saying that you can't do that. Um, but from a longer term perspective, you just stick with Bitcoin. And if you get that rotation, if you get that euphoric rally where Bitcoin triggers all the sort of the more euphoric indicators, then you can justify, you know, maybe taking some of those profits and then speculating in the high-risisk plays because most likely they'll bleed to Bitcoin until that happens anyways.

Maybe not every month, but I mean, if you look back towards 2021, most altcoins have bled for most of those years against Bitcoin. There's just like in 2023, Salana was going up against Bitcoin, right? In 2024, we saw XRP go up against Bitcoin. In 2025, it was Ethereum. And then like late 2025, 2026, it was like privacy coins, you know, like Monero and Zcash. There's always something doing well against Bitcoin. It's hard to find, you know, it's hard to find things over the last 5 years that have gone up against Bitcoin the entire time.

You know, there's just like a rotation between what's going up against Bitcoin and and what's not, but then collectively it it falls down. So, yeah, I mean, you you could have something like that. um you know like maybe out in the 2027 2028 2029 time frame. But Bitcoin has a lot to prove I think before we can you know really know for sure if that's if that's going to play out like it did two cycles ago and not just have a repeat of the last cycle. >> Yeah.

So if we do end up getting a newer low potentially October, November, whatever, like how low do you think it potentially would go? I mean, I think like one of the things is is that I've sort of had in the back of my mind is the realized price. So, if I again, this is assuming a new low happens, right? There's no guarantee that it does, but if it does, like what would be kind of like a major area to watch as a potential low and and so there's this thing called the realized price of of Bitcoin.

And you know if you look through and as you know you can calculate it out with some you know various onchain metrics but if you if you look through you know how Bitcoin has behaved in prior bare markets you can see that it's always gone below the green line throughout in in the bare market right it's it's happened every single time it even happened in 2019 2020 when it was an apathetic top now again it was due to a pandemic I don't know I mean I'm not saying we have to rely on a pandemic happening again but the point is is like every midterm year bare market and then every bare market that happened outside of a midterm year like the 2019 one uh that led into the the pandemic, they all ended up bottoming below the realized price.

And if you look at time, it might feel like, well, we haven't gone below the realized price yet, so maybe we won't. But the counterpoint to that is that in 2014, we didn't even go below the realized price until October. You know, [laughter] like it didn't even happen until October. Imagine this follows 2014 where we go down into October below the realized price and then everyone thinks that's the bottom and then we go lower into January, right?

Like that's like that's a possibility. I I felt like just saying an October low was kind of like a uh you know it was like a pragmatic choice. Like you know October seems like the most likely. That's about a yearong bare market. I don't want to get too greedy. But think about it. You know if Bitcoin were to go below the realized price it's not even we're not even into October yet. And in 2014, it didn't happen until October.

In 2018, we didn't go below the realized price until November, you know, uh, last cycle it happened in June. So, last cycle it happened a little bit sooner. And it I mean, it just hasn't happened yet. And the realized price right now is currently around 53,000. So, >> like that would be like if if we were to go to a lower low, right, then that would be kind of a number to keep in the back of your mind. It's not like there's no indicators that suggest it could go lower.

I mean, it could, but that would be a level that I think some bulls would at least try and defend as as a potential low. Um, and and just because you go to it doesn't mean you have to stop right at it. I mean, if you look at if you if you take the price of Bitcoin and divide it by the realized price, you get a chart that looks like this. And so, you can see that it it kind of goes below one. And anytime it goes below one, it stays there for, you know, a couple of months, maybe a few months.

But that is, you know, historically that's been a really great time to to accumulate, you know, and that doesn't mean it has to stop right at 53K. I mean, it could go lower than that. It just is that's kind of the the window in which Bitcoin's prior bottoms have normally kind of shaped up. So, if if we are destined to go lower, which would I think the I think the way in which Bitcoin would go lower is if there's a correction in the stock market.

Okay? If you look if you look at 2014, 2018, and 2022, every major drop that occurred by Bitcoin in the fourth quarter, it it happened simultaneously with a 10 to 20% drop in the stock market, right? So, you know, you can see in 2014 there was a um you going into 2015, you had this drop right here. It was about a 10% drop. 2018 it was a 20% drop that corresponded to the Bitcoin low. 2022 from the August high to the to the October low is about a 20% drop and you can see that Bitcoin fell in that.

So the way in which it would happen, it doesn't have to be, you know, some massive entities going bankrupt, although that might happen if Bitcoin were to go lower in the crypto space. It would just simply be, you know, like a 10 to 20% drop by stocks, which is kind of seasonal for stocks to do in the second half of midterm years. That would accompany Bitcoin to to a new low. if if we don't get that drop in stocks, um then you're you'd be less likely to see that drop by Bitcoin.

So, I think a lot of it kind of depends on if you get that reset over in the stock market or not. And and again, when you're looking at stocks, you know, a 20% drop basically just gets back gets you back to kind of like the longer term trend. Um, >> so that that's kind of like, you know, that that's where and that could be that could actually just be the S&P sort of sweeping the low from earlier in 2025, right? Um, and and I I've tried to figure out like, okay, are is there precedent for a 10 to 20% drop around the time of a rate hike and after a rate cutting cycle?

And there is actually. So if you if you and if I'm getting too far off base, feel free to re me back. Yeah, it's really interesting because this is like what we're immediately dealing and was actually kind of questions I I was going to ask you anyway. So, >> yeah. So, if you go back, I mean, if you go back to sort of the dot era, the buildout in the dot era, you can see that they initially were raising rates, right? And and then they lowered rates.

So, the purple line is the Fed funds rate, right? they lowered rates and then after lowering rates they realized they had reignited the animal spirits you know um and and then you can see the Fed raised 25 basis points in March of 1997 okay now in March of 1997 when they raised rates the stock market had a 10% drop on that rate hike so the market panicked a little bit but a rate hike is not really a reason to panic a rate hike is is kind of like an an admission that the economy is running hot and and everything is fine.

It rate hikes happen in bull markets usually. 2022 is is kind of an exception but even in that case you know they they continued to hike rates after 2022 and then the market recovered everything that it had lost. So rate hikes is is more so um a reflection of a strong economy not a weak economy. So let's suppose the Fed gives us one rate hike. Maybe that's a 10% drop. If they give us two rate hikes, perhaps that could be, you know, closer to 15, 20%.

People might panic. You know, I think the the narrative would likely be, oh no, they're hiking because inflation is an issue, but what if we keep getting negative non-farm payroll prints? Because then people are going to start worrying about about labor as well. That could maybe lead to sort of a short-term panic. But I I I think what'll likely happen is they'll raise rates. I I'm going to go with once for now. Like I I'm not going to completely discount a second rate hike.

But for now, I'm just going to go with let's say one rate hike. And what I could see them doing after they raise rates either once or twice is then just like not doing anything for for the next year after that, right? Like letting them just sit flat and then the entire next Bitcoin bull market could occur during a Fed funds rate that is just literally sideways, you know? Well, I mean, if you think about it, how it played out back then, they they raised rates in March 97.

They didn't touch interest rates again for 18 months, you know? So, I mean, think about that. I mean, 18 months from a potential September hike. That's not until what, March of 2028, you know? I mean, that that's that could be a full bull market in there um by that point. So, that the the the justification for the rate hike has been growing, right? It's been growing over the last few weeks. And if we just kind of reload this and and look at expectations, you can see there's the the market is leaning more in the direction of of maybe one or two rate hikes before the end of the year.

And so if we get that rate hike and the market panics like it did in the late 1990s or like it's panicked in late 2018, late 2022, and late 2014, 10 to 20% drops, then I I think that would completely justify this four-year cycle view of Bitcoin finding a low, you know, potentially in the fourth quarter of the year, which is when it always does. And then we're stuck wondering like why we thought this time was different once again.

How how do you um like for you Ben when you're looking at your charts, you're looking at historical patterns, you're obviously very aware of what's happening in like a fiscal monetary policy perspective. Um like how much do you take consideration of these kind of macro events, these uh political events like the like the rate hikes? Um, you know, now we have, you know, we just had Arthur Hayes on the channel talking about how we're really in quantitive easing, but call it whatever you want.

You know, we have we've got yield curve control happening$1 trillion at the Treasury. You've got the uh the the buybacks of the of the, you know, the bonds from two to at least $4 billion. And then there's the I forget what they're called repo management or something like that that Fred Hayes was talking about too. >> Yeah. >> Um so he he says this all this is like you know >> another way of doing easing right now. So so on one hand you you know if we get a rate hike you might say that's like tighter policy but on the other hand you've got liquidity coming in quite a bit.

So, I guess I guess that would just be maybe another way to justify like, okay, like yeah, we maybe we have this pullback, but then the liquidity keeps coming in and maybe it's more aggressive because they can't get the the yields down and so maybe there's other interventions and then we have to also I think it's like 8 to10 trillion dollars of debt that needs to be refinanced in next year. So, where does that money come from, you know? >> Yeah.

I mean, I I think conditions are not as loose as people think they are. And like I had this chart called uh net liquidity which basically just sums up the balance sheets of like 16 17 def central banks and um we we subtract out the TGA the reverse repo. Uh but you know I mean you can see we're still well below the uh the highs from 2021 you know and and this is this chart alone is probably the main reason. It kind of helps justify like why crypto has just sucked so much for the last 5 years.

And and by the way, like we've seen this before, right? Like the same thing was happening in 2018, 2019, you know, and it's just that we reached a point where there was a reason for for liquidity to come back and and that is what really kickstarted the next bull market and then that's what led into alt season where it was really easy to make money. The the thing is right now Yes. Like you know, if you look at the money supply, the money supply is at alltime highs. >> Yeah.

Yeah. I was I was going to say this is really helpful because normally like uh normally you would look at you know US money supply or global M2 or something like that to see that's what we would talk about but this is this paints a different picture. I mean, in fact, it's like >> it's either flats or slightly downward, but certainly not going up, >> right? And this is the chart I've been showing on, you know, for for a few years now.

And it was kind of the justification for why I was so bullish on Bitcoin dominance, you know, because I'm like, look, guys, as long as this thing just keeps on trending down, right? Like, you're probably just better off sticking with Bitcoin over the altcoin market in order here's the it's like a catch 22, right? People want looser monetary policy, right? They want liquidity to come in. But the problem is that you can't really have much looser monetary policy unless there's a reason for much looser monetary policy, right?

And so from a technological perspective, the AI buildout is allowing the markets to stay elevated. If you look at if you look at concentration and breadth, um the there's only a few names in the index that are really taking the index higher, right? There's only a few names. There's really low breadth in the market. And so as long as that happens, as long as that continues, it does not really justify the money printer.

Now, let's think for a moment. What if the Fed were to raise rates in September, you know, and and if the markets freak out, maybe you get a non-farm payroll print and then all of a sudden, you know, there's perhaps a reason for for some looser policy or or perhaps some form of of money printing. I mean, because at the end of the day, the one thing we do know is they will eventually print, right? like they will eventually.

It's just a matter of like when does that liquidity actually enter the market? And I think the thing that's caught people off sides over the last four to five years is thinking that it was always about to happen and then it just keeps not happening. Um so it's just a matter of like we I we I think we would need some type of catalyst to allow for that. I don't really look at at monetary policy to figure out like what Bitcoin's going to do like you know cuz I I think Bitcoin is following a fairly struct like a similar um or at least when I I I look at sort of the the cycle to figure out like when it's going to turn but monetary policy and the macro I think can affect how high it goes and how low it goes and it can also affect how higher risk assets are doing relative to Bitcoin.

Right? So in in a bull market that is accompanied by quantitative tightening, Bitcoin will likely outperform altcoins. But in a bull market that's accompanied by quantitative easing, then altcoins would likely outperform Bitcoin. So I use it more so like to think about ratios between high risk assets and lower risk assets. I don't really use it to color my view too much of like when the bull markets and the bare markets in for the assets I care about.

Yeah, that's a it's uh it's really interesting perspective. I'm curious to get your thoughts. You know, again, we had we had Arthur on recently like we talked about the the more mellow and you you mentioned earlier too, like the more mellow last bull run that we had, you know, barely 1.8x on Bitcoin. ETH didn't even get to alltime highs. It was just a non-uporic bull run as you said. um you know he he thinks that that might be because the AI trades you know the Nvidas and Space X's and things like that took a lot of attention from retail that um you know normally and not not only retail I guess institutions too family offices whatever that maybe normally would have participated in the in the crypto cycle maybe this one we're were more into the AI trade um but then also what you just showed us the net liquidity also points to major difference between the 2021 bull market and the 2024 2025 bull market.

So, you know, it was again flat on that side. So, like do you think both things take a role in that in that kind of more mellowed um bull market or >> I think there's four major forces at play. Um so, one is the price of money. So, monetary policy. Uh the other one is technology. So in this case AI AI I think has led to a lot of interest away from the crypto space and not just away from the crypto space but also away from other stocks you know it's the AI stocks that are are really doing well.

So you have technology, you have uh the price of money, right? So monetary policy, but then you also have liquidity like you have the o the total amount of money like m2, right? And this is the thing like there's like how can these things be true? You have the money supply at alltime highs. You have um the S&P basically at all-time highs, right? I mean, I know it's not today, but it was last month, right? So you have the money supply at all time highs.

You have the S&P at all-time highs, but Bitcoin is not. And but Bitcoin arguably is the most liquidity sensitive asset that [clears throat] we are that we track in a lot of ways. So, how can those three things all exist simultaneously? Well, the reason in my opinion is because Bitcoin is showing that liquidity is not as loose as people think it is. Okay. And and I actually have uh maybe maybe one more chart you could throw up here.

Um, >> I have this liquidity risk score and and it and it takes into account um the the two-year yield, the uh so policy rates, yields, the dollar strength, central bank liquidity, and funding stress proxies. And you know, you can see that it goes from very loose to very tight. And we've just been in very we've been in tighter monetary policy relative to the last decade basically since 2022, you know, and it just it hasn't changed yet.

Um and and and right now it's actually going back up. So um but again, that's not a reflection that we're in a bare market. It's it's actually a reflection we're in a bull market. When this thing starts to go down a lot, that would be a reflection that we're going into a bare market. So as long as this thing is going up and staying elevated, it actually means the party's going on. You want to kind of look for this to start dropping, you know, a lot to sort of justify like why it's no longer a a a bull market.

But but I think in the short term you have to and then by the way so there's so I so I said three of them there's uh technology monetary policy liquidity and then the final one is is just human behavior right human psychology and and with Bitcoin there's this psychological force for whatever reason where there's this four-year cycle that exists and by the way I mean it's also existed in the S&P as well I mean we had a major low you know and we've talked a lot about like you know potentially October being a low but you know for for Bitcoin but the S&P P found a low in October of 2022 as well, right?

And in 2018, it found a low in December of 2018. And in 2014, there was a low found in, you know, kind of like October time frame. Now, it did go a little bit lower in 2015, but that was because of a recession scare. So, and even in the even in the even in the um the the ' 50s and the 60s and the 70s and then the early 80s, if you look at the stock market, you'll see that lows occur approximately every four years, right? you have like 1958 uh 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 it's like it's every four years.

So there's also this like human psychology component. And if again like this is also it also exists in present day as well. So if you look at at um like your 2014 drop, your 2018 drop, your 2022 drop, the times where you take out the midterm year low is because of recessions or recession scares, right? So the pandemic, you take out the midterm year low in late 2015, early 2016. There was concern about a recession. We did not have one, but there was a lot of concern about one, a global recession, and it ended up sweeping the low.

But for the most part, you can see these lows occur approximately every four years or so. And it's not a Bitcoin only thing, right? This is human emotion, psychology. It's the cycles that just take place every, you know, every four years or so. Eventually, it'll break, right? I mean, like in in the past, it's broken at times, but look at how many decades it lasted before it broke. So, for me, it's easier just to assume it hasn't broken and and just continue to trade that until it until it actually breaks.

And by the way, I mean, if Bitcoin bottomed in July, the 4-year cycle, I think, is still intact. I mean, it still bottomed in the midterm year. Um, in uh in the 1960s, it the stock market would often bottom in October. So, if you look at uh like the 1960s, you'll see October here of 1966, uh October of 1974, but occasionally you would get one that would occur in like the summer. So, it's not that it can't happen, it's just that it's not as common for it to happen.

Um I I see a lot of mixed reactions on the stock market right now on basically like if if we anticipate some sort of major correction in the stock market right now. I think you know you got obviously like the more mainstream guys like um Michael Bur and others who are putting out like shorts. But then you also have we had Henrik Zeberg on the channel who thinks that you're going to get one last kind of parabolic run before a huge like bigger than 2008 style recession where it lasts a while.

Um and everything goes down. Then you got guys like Arthur Hayes who say that it's it's you know it's uh we're definitely like no recession ahead, nothing but you know wide openen money printers and he's calling for like a potential 10x you know in uh in Bitcoin over the next bull run. Like what do you what do you think? >> The uh the Henrik guy I I posted I don't know if you saw this on Twitter a few weeks ago. I posted this was back when the 10ear was at like 4.6 six or something and I said I said I think it's going to go to 5% you know probably by the end of the year and he he posted about how how how clueless I was [laughter] um uh that that the 10ear couldn't go up because we were on the door of of a recession right and now we're now the 10 year just hit 48 I think so >> I mean you know no one really knows you know like I I don't it's not like I know for sure um but I I think that like my base case is somewhere in the Like I'm not in the camp that we're right at the door of the recession.

I I think we will have a recession. Like I'm not under the illusion that we'll never experience a recession. Like all investors are going to go through recessions. This is a normal part of investing. Um I think that we have a little bit longer before it happens. I I think, you know, it's hard to believe you're going to have a full-blown recession before open AI even IPOs. Like that's not even going to happen, I think, until next year.

And if you look at the.com bubble, the.com boom, the actual top didn't even occur until well after a lot of the major IPOs. And and you know, we might have the anthropic IPO within the next month or so. Uh but I don't I don't think we're going to have the open AI one until probably 2027. >> Um >> so what I would be saying, I'd be looking at at something in the middle, right? I I don't think it's about to be like a massive 50% drop like like some people are saying.

I'm saying a 10 to 20% drop in stocks, similar commensurate with what we saw in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Just a 10 10 to 20% drop. It scares a lot of people into thinking it's truly over. >> But but then we just kind of come out of it. And then my guess would be that we come out of it, we go up for a while into 2027, maybe going in even into 2028. And then and then I think the business cycle will come to an end probably close to the next presidential election.

Probably sometime around then is is is what I'm thinking is is how this is going to play out. But that gives us still, you know, some runway here, right? Like you could have a full-on bull market for a year, you know, in crypto or something or even longer, maybe two years before this plays out. >> Maybe. I mean, historically, >> three years, right? >> Right. I mean, maybe maybe even three. Like I'm not I'm not opposed to just saying maybe the next bull market top for Bitcoin is just 2029, right?

Like if it's not broke, don't fix it. Why assume why assume any difference? So yeah, I mean you're right. Like that that certainly could be the case and and then but then it would be one of those things where it just happens to line up and people like oh well it wouldn't have happened if something but it's like it it lined up anyways, right? Like let's not do the mental gymnastics and assume why it has to be different.

Let's assume it'll be the same and if and if it is different we'll we'll keep our ears open and and allow the market to tell us it's different. Does ETH sit within that high like like your your time frame that Bitcoin only until things say otherwise kind of thing that we just talked about? Is ETH also like like higher up the risk curve? Um >> yeah, a little. I mean I I do have some ETH. I'm not going to like pretend like I don't.

Um I have some. So, but I I think like you know it's best to to stick mostly with Bitcoin. >> It had such a terrible bull run last time. Very disappointing. Um, >> yeah, it's mostly reflective, I think, of monetary policy and and liquidity. Can you see my screen here? Yeah. So, if you if you're looking at just modern portfolio theory and you want to maximize your uh sort ratio, your sharp ratio, it calls for about an 8020 split between Bitcoin and ETH.

Um, I tend to, you know, I I last cycle I actually minimized my volatility. So, it was more of like a 93% Bitcoin, only 7% ETH. So like I I would argue like 9010 is probably more like the sweet spot right now and and then increasing the ETH exposure only after you have a a future parabolic Bitcoin bull run like only after that then I you know increasing it beyond the sort of the 9010 split. But I mean like I I think it's okay and like I think if people want to you know dabble in altcoins like I'm not going to be the Grinch and say that you can't do that.

Like it's not like I didn't I mean I did it once upon a time. But the the problem that I think like people should think about with with altcoins and and why there's like a big disconnect between like what I say and then what people feel like is happening. You know, I used to be in the altcoin market, right? I like I was that guy. Uh but I got you once I got to the point I got older like I was like, you know, building my my net worth and now I have five kids.

Like I don't want to take on as many risks because I want to protect what I already have, right? So, I got to the point where I was like, well, yeah, like I could go buy an altcoin, but the problem is I'm never going to put enough in the altcoin for me to even care about it, you know? Like, if I go put a small amount of money, like I I'm never going to trust a large amount of money in an altcoin, right? Like I that doesn't mean I'm not going to go put in like a small amount every once in a while just for just for the heck of it, just to, you know, have some fun.

But I'm not looking to get rich on altcoins. I'd rather this is why like when gold moves, you know, everyone gives uh Peter Schiff a hard time. I give him a hard time, too, right? But again, at the end of the day, >> the reason why gold going up 2x can often be more meaningful for overall wealth than Bitcoin going up say 10x because there is just so much more money in gold, right? So if if you have a billionaire who has $500 million in gold and gold goes up like 4x, think about how much wealth that creates for that person, right?

Whereas they're not going to ever put as much into Bitcoin. Now obviously Sailor's different. I mean, I'm not saying there's not exceptions to the rule, but for the most part, people are going to put in the money commensurate with the risk they feel like they're taking on. That's why a smaller move up in in gold or something can actually create more wealth, I think, than you know, a 4 to 5x move in Bitcoin. That doesn't mean you can't make a lot of money in Bitcoin.

It's just that, you know, if you look through the entire world, there's just a lot more money in in gold than Bitcoin. >> Yeah. So, you you talked about um during this last bare market, you put a you did some like AI stocks, basically, some indexes, whatever. Um like and then I don't know if you hold gold or not but I'm curious like what is your ratio of right now like stocks, equities, gold, bitcoin and then also you know yeah talking to Arthur he thinks that uh that the AI AI trade is like you know like good gains have already been made there's a lot of money in it high pees it's like he thinks that there's going to be a rotation uh from like AI stocks into Bitcoin uh and probably gold like you know at some point coming soon.

But I'm not sure what point, but curious to hear like how you're looking at these sectors and if you kind of feel the same way if you feel like Bitcoin might have a strong like Yeah. So like what are your ratios and then do you have plans to maybe take some profits, rotate out of the stock sector as we kind of come back more into a bull run for Bitcoin? >> I don't tend to rotate out of stocks usually. I just like hold them long term.

Um even even though like like for instance here's now's a good example because I'm expecting stocks to drop about 10 to 20%. But that might I mean first of all we might not even be in that drop yet. It might I mean two of the last three midterm years didn't even start until like mid to late September. Um but even if I even if even that case I'm not going out and selling stocks in anticipation of a drop. Um I don't tend to sell stocks because you know they just over the long haul they go up into the ride and I'd rather just hold them.

Um so gold represents you know and and let's just say commodities in general and I'm not talking about crypto. I'm just talking about like hard, you know, physical assets you own, like you can touch, gold, silver, that sort of stuff. Uh, is probably around 20 to 25% of my port, you know, of of the portfolio. Um, and I'm not including cash, right? I'm just saying like, you know, of the assets that I own. So maybe 20 25%.

Stocks are typically, you know, even in a bull run, they're they tend to be about three times what I have in in the crypto market. Um, and and and the reason is because, you know, like I I know people feel very strongly about this stuff, but I'm not risking my family's future on, you know, on on on cryptocurrency, right? I mean, like, we've already I've been a big investor in crypto for years and years and years and years.

And I have a lot invested, right? I mean, I have a lot invested. Um, it's just that I don't want to bet everything on it, you know? Like, I want to bet on like I'm also I've been bullish on gold and silver for a long time, right? And I've been bullish on uranium and and and you know a lot of the a lot of the uh the build out in the in the mag 7 like I buy index funds every single month. I buy a lot of international funds uh as well and you know like I don't want to just be all in on one asset because think about it like this if you were 100% into Bitcoin for the last few years.

I mean, like, you haven't you really haven't outperformed the S&P at this point, you know, like you haven't. Um, and so I think like, you know, by having exposure into other areas, it I mean, it's allowed you to make money this year. I mean, if you went into this year being bullish on Bitcoin, even with the current rally, you're still down like 40% or, you know, 30% or something from the highs, right? Um, if you went into this year bullish on stocks or on energy, you're making money.

You know, you're still doing quite well. So, I think there's a you can the way to get truly truly wealthy is to take a a very concentrated bet on something, right? Very concentrated. That's how you get truly truly wealthy. If you're just trying to like grow your wealth without taking on that layer of risk, I think you can do that. You just have to be responsible with how you allocate stuff. >> Okay, last question is uh you mentioned that you have five kids now.

Um curious like that's a lot. Um but [clears throat] just totally off the topic of crypto investing, I'm just more curious about like personally what is that like to have five kids and like also once you had your first one, how did that did [clears throat] like how did that change your life as far as your not like like yes from an a risk perspective, but also just from like like a lot of people say that like they become a different person of themsel or you know it's made them better or they like just got to hear your thoughts.

Five is a lot. like we're my fiance and I are considering our first one here pretty soon and uh I know a lot of my friends are either pregnant or considering it. So I guess just a fun personal question. >> Yeah. So I had I had um so we have five. The the youngest is currently about 3 months old. So really young. Um and you know the first one I had I was I was actually getting my PhD at the time. Um, so I did my PhD in nuclear engineering and you know it made me less of a selfish person.

I mean I guess what it real it made me realize how selfish I was before the baby, you know, because like before the baby you can just do whatever you want, right? I mean like you don't have to you don't it's not like you have this little person that's constantly depending on you, you know, and and there's really no breaks from that stuff, at least collectively between you and and your partner. Like someone's got to watch the baby or you're putting the baby, you know, someone else is like a childare provider or something.

Um, so it it realizes it makes you realize how selfish you are, I think. And then, but I mean now I can't even imagine life without them, you know, like they become such an integral part of your life that it's just uh and now that we've had number five, it really hasn't affected our life like that much. I mean, obviously when they're not sleeping through the night, like that's hard and that affects things. >> Um, but it doesn't really affect like the overall family dynamic because we already have four kids, right?

I'm already driving them to soccer practice. I'm already taking them, you know, to their swim meets and the basketball practice and the and the to chess club and all like I'm already doing all that. Um having one more kid isn't going to really change my that routine. Uh so >> how old how old are they? >> Uh 0 to 10. >> Okay. Any any little any little traders in the house or little prodical geniuses? The chess is like really great, you know.

But >> no, I mean like I I mean they're they're smart. Like I they're not into trading. I mean, I don't I I honestly like I would I kind of just want to keep him away from from [laughter] this for a while because this is I mean, as you know, like this is a stressful business to be in like a trust. It's really stressful >> unless you just go the route of just saying, you know what, like I'm just going to buy index funds and maybe occasionally buy Bitcoin.

I'm not going to worry about all this stuff, you know, like that's uh and honestly, I might only be a few years away from just being like, "All right, guys, you know, like let's just let's let's dial it back a notch." But um no, I mean I I think I you know when they when they were first born like I mean I bought I obviously was investing before they were born. Uh like but I was I was you know buying you know stocks and and and you know I think some like you know just individual things right.

Um but you know I remember when you know after one of them was born the first one I remember when the first one was born two like you know wanting to figure out a way to to really increase like wealth right so that I could provide for for him. I mean, it gives you like a new appreciation for like wanting to like because you want to you basically want to provide everything you can for them and and oftentimes people want to do more for their kids than they feel like their parents did for them, right?

They want to like try to, you know, improve improve things. Um, so I I actually took on more risk for a little while, but the reason I took on more risk in the short term was because, you know, it was like I was a grad student, right? Like it's not like I was it's not like I was over there like putting millions of dollars on the line or any you know like it's not like I was over there betting everything uh for for something.

I was just like I was making I remember when I was a grad student uh my my monthly stipen was $2,000 a month. Like that was what I like that's what I was getting paid. So for me to take and I and I I was a grad student starting in in 2013. So that was when I I started. So for me to take, you know, like a small amount, a few hundred bucks and to put it into, you know, whe whether it's crypto or stocks, even if it went up, it's not like it was changing my life, you know.

Um so that I think that was the reason why I was able to take on more risk because I knew that if I lost it, it wasn't a huge deal. Like I would have, you know, I I would be making money after grad school. I did a posttock and then I became a scientist at the national lab. I knew I would make it back. I just wanted to take on a few risks and it actually worked out because you know then it led into the 2016 2017 bull market.

Um so I mean it it worked out but just because it worked out for me doesn't mean it has to work out for other people trying to like do this like you it there's an element of luck involved as well. And I I think that is what a lot of people realized in 2023 and 2024 is that just because there was an alt season in 2017 and 2013 does not mean there's got to be one in in 2025. Like there's there's elements of luck involved as well. >> Yeah.

All right. Well, very very cool. Um thanks for that personal insight at the end there and uh thanks for coming on Ben. Um we will put all of your links so people can go check out what you're doing into the cryptoverse cow site. Uh, for those of you guys, most of you guys are pretty sure know who Ben is, but if you don't, make sure you go follow him on X and YouTube. Ben, where can they they catch you? >> Yeah, on X. Just uh Benjamin Cowan.

Um, and then on YouTube as well. You can just search my name, Benjamin Cowan, and and that's where you'll find me. >> Cool. Okay. Well, thanks for coming on, man. Really appreciate it. >> Yep. Thanks for having me. Pleasure to be here.