Bitcoin Rallies to $80K | Kevin Warsh Speaking at Jackson Hole transcript

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin as it is now above $80,000. We are also on the eve of Kevin Worsh speaking at Jackson Hole tomorrow, which would be Friday. So, we're going to talk about that. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and again, check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at into the cryptoverse.com.

As a reminder, the ticket prices for the first ITC conference, Investing Through the Cycles Conference, are going up on September 1st. So, if you would like to get your ticket, make sure you go ahead and do so. Now, Bitcoin is trading back above $80,000, and we are on the eve of a fairly important event. Kevin Walsh is going to be speaking tomorrow at Jackson Hole. Now, if you guys were here for the 2022 midterm year, you might remember that it was Kevin or it was Jerome Powell coming out on August in late August and saying uh in very clear terms, there will be pain and and the stock market reacted negatively to that and it and it went down into the low that we ended up forming for that midterm year.

Now Kevin Walsh is a little bit different to say the least when compared to Jerome Powell. Kevin Walsh seems to be more of the belief that forward guidance is not really needed and he also recently said that they expect essentially the long end of the yield curve to do the work for them. One of the issues right now is that Kevin Worsh is saying that the long end of the yield curve will do the work, but you have treasur Treasury Secretary Bessant uh you know essentially accelerating their bond buyback program thus trying to bring the long end the yield curve down.

So the problem is how can they both work simultaneously? How can how can Wor say just let the long end do the work so that we don't have to raise rates while you have the secretary the Treasury secretary saying you know what we're going to do basically what we can to keep the long end down. So there's an issue there because it it it doesn't really allow for either of them to kind of rely on what they were previously, you know, perhaps relying on and especially in terms of uh Kevin Worsh, right?

And and so what I think is going to happen tomorrow is he's going to get pressed on that. In fact, Stanley Drunken Miller came out recently and and wrote sort of a a fair a large criticism of the bond buyback program that was recently discussed by the Treasury Secretary. And so then the question now has become if that is brought up, how will he respond to it? Now, that's a lot, right? I mean, there's there's a lot going on.

As of right now, the odds of a rate hike in September are somewhat low according to the market, right? There's only a one-third chance you're going to get a rate hike in September. I imagine the probabilities on this will probably change some after the the meeting in Jackson Hole and of course after we get the next unemployment rate uh labor market report that'll be coming out next week. And so going into the to the actual meeting, we should have a better idea as to what's actually going to happen.

So, where is Bitcoin now? Well, right now, Bitcoin is at 80K. And I I've had a lot of people ask, you know, is the bottom end, right? Everyone wants to know, is the bottom end? And to some degree, remember, four-year cycle lows don't always have to occur at the end of the midterm year. There are examples in the stock market where it occurs in the summer, and we covered that previously. be that as it may, just because it sometimes occurs in the summer does not unilaterally mean that Bitcoin's Bitcoin cannot go back down.

And so what I want to talk about a little bit here is still make the comparison to 2018, show you guys certain fractalss and why fractals are hard to put a lot of faith in because they all look very similar, but the eventual path can can be very very different. So the first thing I want to do here is look at 2018 and we can start to see some divergence in it and maybe and but we've also talked about how it's not just 2018 but it's kind of like a little 2019esque as well.

In 2018 Bitcoin formed a low at around $6,000 and in 2026 that low was around $60,000. Now what's interesting is the timing of things have more or less lined up. There's maybe some slight deviation. Now, so in February of 2018, Bitcoin formed a low at around $6,000. In February of 2026, Bitcoin formed a low at around $60,000. And then in late March, early April, Bitcoin formed a higher low in 2018 in the same way it did so in 2026.

And then from there, Bitcoin formed a lower high in May of both 2018 and 2026. Obviously, I've been pretty bearish on Bitcoin since last October, November time frame, especially when Bitcoin fell below the 50week moving average in November. And um but that was sort of like the final nail in the coffin to the bare market. That was not the first indicator of the bare market. That was the last indicator that the bare market was in fact here back in November of 2025.

You can see that Bitcoin fell below the 50we moving average right there kind of early November time frame and Bitcoin was still at around $100,000 or so a little over $100,000. So what's interesting is that we've had rallies like we had in 2018, right? We had those rallies and there every time we had a rally there was all this emotion associated with it. Tons of emotion. Frankly, a lot of hate, right? A lot of hate towards me for suggesting that the bare market could come in 2026.

But then we fast forward and and it it did all play out, right? Like the the rally in in March and April last or earlier this year, we look back on it and we're like, "Yeah, counter trend rally." We look back on the rally that we had back in in, you know, December and early January and we can say, yep, it was a counter trend rally. There was no reason there was no reason for the emotions to get to the point that they did.

But that did not stop the emotions from getting to that point anyways, right? Because, and I've said this before, whenever the market's going up, it feels like it will never go down again. Whenever the market's going down, it feels like it will never go up again. So let's just go through again where has it been similar and is it starting to deviate because we want to be a student of the market. We want to say has this happened before?

Is there any precedent for it or would it make more sense to just get on the bull bandwagon and and not even consider further downside? Well, as I will remind you, and I know people don't like listening to this part because there's a difference between being right and making money, as I've said countless times, and on July 1st, I was very clear. I said it on YouTube, I said it on Twitter, that the accumulation window for Bitcoin, in my opinion, had begun, right?

But that with that, we could go lower in the fourth quarter of the year. And the reason for that is because I was looking back at how I had played the last two cycles and saying, you know what, the last two cycles I started buying Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year. In both cases, there was a rally that made me believe the bottom was in in some cases. Last like I wasn't really believing the bottom was in, you know, and then it came later.

But in 2018, I thought the bottom was in uh by the summer and then we ended up going lower later on. And so sort of the thing to think about here is have we seen this type of move before that then led to price coming back down. I don't have a crystal ball unfortunately. I cannot sit here and tell you with 100% confidence what is going to happen. I can say that there is a slight deviation in the 2018 move and we'll talk about that now.

So, if you look at the how it's formed so far, you have a February low in 2018 and 2026. You have a higher low in late March, early April of both years. You have a lower low in the summer where you swept where you go below either 6,000 for 2018 or 60,000 for 2026. And then, of course, you have your lower high in May. All of that played out in the exact same way. It all played out. Now, what happened after Bitcoin swept the low in the summer of 2018?

Well, after Bitcoin swept the low, it rallied back up to the 50week moving average, right? That's what happened. It rallied to the 50week moving average. This is a statement. I am not making a projection on that. It's just this is what happened. We swept the low. Bitcoin rallied to the 50we. Now, when Bitcoin swept the low in July, I said then that Bitcoin could go back up to the 50WE moving average in the same way that it did in 2018.

But this is where it deviates and this is where it it surprised me a little bit if I'm being honest. And as I've said before, we're all going to make mistakes. We're not going to be right about absolutely everything. I'd be lucky to be right about 55% of things if we're being honest. But this is kind of where it deviates a little. All right, so after we swept the low in the summer, I said, "All right, that will likely be the low for a while." And the reason for that is because the low ended up being 57,000.

The reason why 57,000 is important is because the low in 2018 also happened to be 5700. Right? And again, I I know this is silly and and people get annoyed by some of this type of analysis, but you cannot deny that in 2026 it has mimicked a lot of 2018 as the cycle has gone on. If you look at say the year-to- date ROI of Bitcoin, I'm not really I just had it up. I didn't realize that was up. So, let me bring it back up.

If you look at the year-to- date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and compare it to 2018, you will see a lot of similarities, right? Lows form around the same time. The lower highs form around the same time. The main difference is the rally to the 50we has not occurred at the same time. In 2018, the rally to the 50we occurred by late July. Now, it's occurring in August. So what happened back then was we immediately, you can see we swept the low at 50.

We went to 5700. We went up, consolidated for one week down, and then we went straight up to the 50we moving average as you can see, right? Straight up to that 50week moving average and then we sold off. The reason why this time is different and it it it's not necessarily the same exactly is because this time after sweeping the low at 57,000 we consolidated for far longer than we did in 2018. Remember 2018 was like two green weeks up, one red one red week down and then up to the 50 week.

This one was four green weeks up and then two red weeks down with a green week in between. And so it took basically an extra month before the rally to the 50we even occurred. But if you're not married to the timing of it, it it played out in the same way. It's just that it's played out later this time. Now, the reason why this is so hard is because you would expect a rally from a low to look the same way. And and let me show you what I mean, right?

If you were to take say a bar pattern from the last cycle low, right, from the last low, the last cycle and and just simply overlay this on the chart, this is what you would expect it to look like, right? And you can that's that's the uh 2022 move. You can also take the, you know, the um uh some of the other moves, right? You could look at at 2019 and and look at how 2019 is. You can see that again ignoring the pandemic.

This is sort of how it played out. Like you had a rally, right? You had a rally that occurred. You you sort of sold off, you had a rally up, you came back down, you had another rally up, then the pandemic hit, and then you sold off. You have 2018, right? If we take the the 2018 move, it's very similar. It's just it it occurred a month later. So for me, what's difficult here is is which one do you put faith in, right?

Because again, they all sort of line up, right? Where you have the fractal where it drops down, it rallies up, it drops down again, it rallies to the 50we, and then it sells off again, and then eventually it it resolves to downside. So because of that I I cannot take a fractal and say that it has to play out this way because if I look at the 2022 fractal it would look like there's a good there's a case to be made that the low is in right when you when you sort of line that up.

So this is what makes it hard. A rally off the low a true low would look the same that it looks right now. If it looked different from what it looks like right now, it'd be a lot harder to believe that it's the low because normally when the low is formed, you just go straight up. Now, in 2018, we rallied to the 50we and got rejected. In 2023, we rallied to the 50we and broke through. In 2015, we rallied to the 50we and got rejected. the cycle before we rallied to the 50we temporary rejection but ultimately we broke through.

So the question now is do we break through or do we not? And I I I think that we're about to have the answer to that question and that doesn't mean we can't have a fake out first in either direction. So, we're going to zoom in now to 2018 and look and I want you to look closely at how it played out in 2018 and that way we can assess if it's evolving differently or the same. All right? Don't get married to a thesis. Just just look to see if it's going to play out the same way or if it's different. in 2018.

If 2018, if you look at the low that was formed in February and you basically just connect the dots, what you'll see, you you take your February low to your March high, your March higher low, and then you can see where you broke down. And then it was when we broke down, that's what formed the summer low that we talked about. That would likely be the low for a little bit. That's what formed the summer low. But after the summer low was formed, Bitcoin rallied up to that trend line, right?

Like it it basically was going back up and and retesting the trend line that it broke down from. It tested it temporary rejection. You see that long wick up on a red day? Keep that in mind. Long red, long red wick up. We then came back up to the trend line and then the next day there was a big move above it probably faking everyone out and then a couple weeks later we gave it all back. Back then Bitcoin rallied from 5700 up to 8,400.

Back then 8,400 roughly was the 50week moving average. I think it was maybe slightly lower. I believe we wicked above the 50week moving average back then, but you can see it went up to about 848,500 and then a week or two later, we were basically just giving it all back. So remember that pattern though, the higher sort of the higher lows into the summer into the summer low and then a rally back up to the trend line consolidation and then blast through only for it to be given back.

Okay, what's interesting, you can already picture it, right? You already know what I'm going to say because it's the same thing, right? I mean, it's the exact same thing. It's just the month that it's occurring is a month later. You take your higher lows, right? You take your February low to your your March higher low. Remember that red wick up, that wick back up. See that red wick to the to the trend line? That also occurred in in 2018 as well, right?

You can see it. And I'll zoom back in. See that wick red day wick up to the trend line, get rejected for a couple days, and then right back up to it. That's where we are right now, right? like we're we're right back up to it to the to where the wick was. So, if you go back to 2026, there's the red wick back down going right back up to that level, which coincidentally or maybe not coincidentally happens to be the 50week moving average.

Now, Jackson Hole is tomorrow. Kevin Wars is speaking. In 2018, Bitcoin wicked above the 50week moving average on the day that it broke through the trend line. Right? Like it broke through the trend line, wicked above the 50we moving average, and then the next week it sold off in 2023 when we got above it, we sort of sold off, but then eventually we we broke through. This is why it's so hard is because if you are a believer in the 2018 analog, it's not like this is that different from what we've previously seen.

Now, where it is different is the fact that the high that it's making, wherever it makes, is actually near the prior high in May. In 2018, the high at the 50we was a lot lower than the one in May, right? I mean, significantly lower because the one in May was at like 10,000 basically the in 2018. In 2026, the one in May was not at 100K, right? It was only at like 82,000. But this is where it's not just the 2018 analog if the bare market is to play out that we have to consider.

There's other analoges as well. You could look at 2019 where we rallied back up to a high. That's not the best example because the pandemic occurred. But I would like to know what would have happened had the pandemic not occurred. Would it would we have broken through or like would we have just sold off in a slower fashion, gone to the same levels and then gone up? Maybe timebased capitulation would have still played out.

But because price based capitulation occurred, it accelerated it. Okay, now you might say, "Well, Ben, we only got one example where we went back up to a high only to get rejected and then back up." There's actually two more examples in 2014, right? 2014 is a great example where we formed a low, right? Okay, we formed a low in February. We rallied up, we came back down, swept the low, and then right back up. Right? You see that high?

So you you you set a low in February, rally up, set a lower low, rally up to the same level only to get rejected and go down. And when it got rejected and went down, it actually formed a low. The next low occurred coincidentally in October. This also occurred in 2015 as well. In 2015, we set a low, rallied up, set a higher low, rallied back up to the 50we, got rejected, went down, formed the actual low in a recession scare.

Not a recession. There was a recession scare and then we went up. I'll be honest with you guys, okay? What happens with Bitcoin from here, in my opinion, doesn't really matter what Kevin Walsh says tomorrow. None of that to me is is is going to really make or break anything. I mean, if he if he comes out really doubbish, maybe Bitcoin breaks through. Uh what I think a lot of this comes down to is whether we get a correction in the stock market or not.

That's what it comes down to. because every prior low in the market for Bitcoin occurred near the end of the midterm year in 2014. It actually occurred in early really early 2015, but basically the end of the midterm year. And every single one of those corrections corresponded to a stock market correction that started in either August or September. Right? In every single case, you had a a drop in stocks that occurred.

Right? Here it is. Not it was in 2014. it was just a 10% drop. 2018 it was a 20% drop. 2022 it was a 20 20% drop. Right? Every single midterm year for stocks for the last three midterm years had that 10 to 20% drop in the index right in the stock market and then Bitcoin during that event went back down in Q4 and then that's where the actual low occurred. The way in which I could be wrong about that view would be if there's not a stock market correction.

If instead of the stock market getting a correction like it normally does starting in either August or mid to late September, if it doesn't happen, then there is always a chance that the low is in at 57K. That doesn't mean we won't eventually go below it. um if things evolve in a in a bad way later on but that's the window right like that that window of weakness would be then if it's going to happen in my opinion and that's why I say you know what happens here at the 50we is crucial because if the low is in like it was in 2022 you would expect to break through the 50we moving average if the low is in like it was in by early 2019, then we should break through the 50week moving average on multiple weekly closes.

If this is more like a fake out, then you would expect Bitcoin to get rejected between 80 to 85K because in 2018 we went up to almost 8,500, right? You would that is where the rejection would theoretically occur at. So for me, it would not make a lot of sense to stay bearish if Bitcoin starts accepting on multiple weekly closes in the in the mid80s, right? Like at that point, it really calls into question the validity of the continuation of the bare market.

If that does not happen, if Bitcoin just simply is stalls out between 80 and 85, you could argue that we've seen this before. Now, the reason why a lot of people believe the low is in, and they could be right. Like, I'm not here to say that they're wrong. I mean, I we don't know, but one of the reasons is because it looks very similar to the 2022 low. And there are some indicators that would suggest that could be the low.

If you were to look at the Bitcoin supply in profit or loss, I mean, it looks like, you know, a fairly aesthetically pleasing chart. I made a video on this on July 1st, I believe, called, you know, uh, an aesthetically pleasing chart or something like that or a beautiful chart and you can see just how clear this stuff is. But sometimes you get these big drops in it like we did in 2015 and then it just sells off again.

So again, just because it came down here doesn't mean it can't cross again. But the point is is if you're only looking at this chart, you wouldn't look at this chart and be bearish. You would look at the chart and be like, "Well, look, we reset. It's time to be build. It's time to be bullish. If you were to look at the RSI, say the weekly RSI, you could say, "Look, we reset. Why do we need to go lower? Why, you know, do we need to?" No, we don't need to.

But you can look at the weekly RSI and say, "Look, every single cycle we go down below 30 and then that ends up being the bottom around those levels." So, that's a case to be made. You can see that we're kind of coming up to these lower highs in the weekly RSI. But the counterpoint to this is there are indicators that do not suggest that. For instance, looking at the realized price, and I'm going to probably put a video soon called the bulls versus the bears, and we'll go through everything, at least everything I can think of.

The realized price, the realized price in 2014 was not crossed until October. The realized price in 2018 was not crossed until November. In 2022, we crossed the realized price in June. This cycle, we haven't crossed it. So again, it makes it made sense to say that we would form a low in the summer because there are some indicators that suggest the low is in, but not all indicators suggest the low is in. So what I would argue is that if the low is not in, which we should find out in the next two weeks or so, if we either get rejected or we break through the 50we, if the low is not in, then the next major area to look at for support would in fact be the realized price, right?

Like 53 $53,000. That's where the realized price is. It would be just going slightly below the prior level, right? Like not even that far below it. maybe even just kind of connecting the dots on some of this stuff, just saying, "All right, we go down a little bit lower, we hit 53K, and then that is the low, but even then, you still would not have all onchain indicators reset." So, I don't want to get ahead of myself, you know, I I don't want to get out into that type of analysis at the current time when everyone's just screaming for new alltime highs at this point.

And I know there's a lot of people that truly from the bottom of their heart absolutely despise me right now for suggesting that we could in fact have a lower low and then now they feel like they're left behind in the market. But I will reiterate as I said the second half of the midterm year in my opinion is the time to accumulate right? Like I'm not telling you to time the bottom. I'm saying look what I do is I buy Bitcoin in the second half of midterm years and I just deal with the rallies right I mean you know I I deal with the rallies and if I'm not fully allocated I'm not but in 2018 after I started buying Bitcoin had a almost a 50% rally in 2022 after I started buying Bitcoin had about a 40% rally right I mean I started buying in July like I said and and again we're up about 40%.

It's not like we haven't seen it before. The question is is which indicators do you want to put your faith in? Do you want to put your faith in the RSI and the supply and profit and loss and and that sort of stuff and the fractal of 2022 or do you want to put your faith in in the more cautious indicators like the realized price or the balance price and that sort of stuff? It's all a matter of what do you want to put your faith in in terms of calling the low or not.

So, tomorrow is a big day. We got Kevin Walsh speaking at Jackson Hole. We'll see if it continues to follow 2018 or not. I think we'll have an answer to all this stuff within the next week or two because the reality is if if this is a true breakout beyond a shadow of a doubt, right? If this is a true breakout, Bitcoin should get above the 50 without much issue. It might stall out a little bit, right? And maybe it'll wick above it a couple, but it should get above it without issue like it did in 2023 and like it did in 2019.

But we can't know that yet, right? Like there there's plenty of historical examples like 2015 and like 2018 where we simply just got rejected by it. And I you know in 2015 the rally that we had off the low was also about 40%. Right? And we still got rejected went down to a lower low. It's a tough market right? It's a tough market. Please remember there is a difference between being right and making money. You don't have to be right about everything to make money in the market, right?

I mean, this midterm year I was more bullish on stocks and I was buying index funds and energy and manufacturing stocks. Those did really well. Bitcoin has struggled against all of them. Even with the current rally, you can make money even in bare markets as long as you know where the bull market is. And right now we're basically in the in the moment of figuring out if the bare market is simply going to continue or not.

And you can take a side. I admittedly am probably one of the more risk averse crypto YouTubers, right? Probably one of the more risk averse. So I am always going to look for the risk. I'm not ever going to sit here and tell you there's no risk, right? I won't ever do that. So, if you want to get mad about that, comment sections down below. But that's just who I am. That's who I've always been. Well, maybe not who I always been, but it's been who who I've been for the last say seven or eight years.

That's who I am. That's who I will be in the future. And I will continue to talk about this stuff in as objective of a way as I can. And if we break through on weekly clo on on two or three weekly closes cuz we sometimes we'll get like one or two but if there's no followthrough if we break through I will come here and say all right I'm dropping the bare thesis. I will say that and I I will not hold on to it. I will say it clear and simple.

I have no problem admitting when I am wrong. And if I'm wrong I'm wrong. But again, I guarantee you the people that trolled me at these other highs, none of them came out for the most part. None of them came out and and said anything other than just started to bull post the same way. So, but I will I will I will come out and say I'm wrong. If we accept above the the the low to mid50 or the low to mid 80s, accepting above that, especially like 85k, the bare case is tough, right?

The bare case is really really tough at that point. and and then it just wouldn't make sense. Um, but those are my views. I hope it's helpful. Uh, again, I don't I don't have a crystal ball. Some of you guys might have one. So, if you do, I' I'd ask you to assess what your crystal ball is telling you. And finally, the last thing is that if you truly do believe the low is in beyond a shadow of a doubt, right? Let's say you believe this is like a 2018 style move without the final breakdown.

Okay? Don't let a 30% rally off the low scare you, right? I mean, like, it would be like not buying Bitcoin in 2023 because it was at 20K instead of 15 or not buying it in 2019 because it was at 5,000 instead of 3,000 at some point. I know it feels like you're chasing, but if you truly are like if you're truly mad and you're like, "Oh, you know, I thought the low was in Q4 and now you're determined. You're you know the low already occurred." Okay, so what?

Right? Maybe you picked up a little bit there, you add here, and then in a year or two, you're not going to care anyways. So, don't, you know, don't don't let missing the beginning of a move force you to miss the entire thing. Okay? If you missed the 2019 move here, you didn't have to sit out for the next two years watching the market go up. Same thing in 2023. If you missed the first move, you don't have to sit out for two years watching the market go up.

Same thing here. So if at any point you're convinced the low is in and you feel this like righteous anger that you missed out and now you have to sit on the sidelines for the next two years, you don't, right? Like you don't. You can always get a position and you live with the consequences no matter what. And you don't blame anyone else either. It's your decision. It's your money. You do with it what you please. If you buy and we go up, it's your it's what you do, right?

And if you if you don't buy and we go down, don't thank me. Don't thank me because I already started buying Bitcoin in July when we went below.3 risk. My my own my own issue that I have is that I told you guys for the entire first half of midterm year that I would start buying in July below.3 risk. And we went there and I had all the five days at those levels to accumulate in the second half of the midterm year below.3s.

Only 5 days. So I bought some. It's not like it's not like my position isn't up. It's not what I would want it to be, right? Let's be honest, right? I mean, like it's not like I'm fully allocated, but it's also not like I have nothing either. I'm trying to communicate my strategy with you guys. Uh hopefully that's been helpful. If it hasn't, you know, there's other people you guys can follow. Thank you guys for tuning in.

Make sure you subscribe. Uh give the video a thumbs up. And again, if you guys want to come to the conference in November, uh you know, late November, we'll see what the market's doing by then. Uh make sure you guys get your ticket before September 1st as prices are going up. Then thank you guys for tuning in and I'll see you next time. Bye.