Bitcoin and the 50 Week Moving Average transcript

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin as it wrestles with the 50-week moving average. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. As a reminder, make sure to get your ticket for the first ITC conference that'll be coming up uh in November, but if you want to get your ticket before the prices go up, make sure you do so before September 1st.

Link is in the description below. Let's go ahead and jump in. So, Bitcoin has I mean, last week it rallied about 24%. This week, we've already seen Bitcoin rally up to the 50-week moving average. And, you know, I've had a lot of people reach out and ask if this changes anything. Uh you know, could is it possible that the bear market is it is over? Um and so, I just want to sort of talk through some of that stuff. First of all, anything is always possible, right?

Four-year cycles historically dictate that the low occurs approximately every 4 years. If you look at the S&P 500, it's approximately every every 4 years or so that you'll have major lows in the market, and even going back to the 1950s, '60s, and '70s, while often times the low would occur later in the year, like September or October. So, October of of '66 and October of '74, occasionally you will see the market bottom out sooner, such as in the summer.

So, it it's not like it's impossible, all right? But, be that as it may, with you know, with Bitcoin, one of the things I think we should sort of consider here is what historically has marked the end of the bear market. Because it really depends on which indicators you want to use. If you want to use things like the MVRV Z-score or um you know, the balance price, the realized price, you would argue for lower prices. If you want to use things like the supply of of Bitcoin in profit or loss, which is a chart that we've covered.

If you want to use things like time-based capitulation or other things of that nature, it could suggest that it it would take a little bit longer. As I have said, and I publicly said on July 1st that the second half of midterm years historically is the accumulation window. It's hard to nail down the exact low. What's interesting is that so far that low occurred so far on July 1st, the very first day of the second half of the midterm year.

But, if you guys remember when the bull market was still, you know, back in 2025, when it first really started to look like we were entering into the bear market, what I said back then that, you know, we thought it was a bear market already, but then the final nail in the coffin for the bull market was the weekly close below the 50-week moving average. If you go back and look throughout all prior bull markets, once you're below the 50-week moving average, it's over, right?

Like it it's always been over when Bitcoin dropped below the 50-week. The bull market has always been over. No matter how much people tried to manifest the bull market back, it was always over on weekly closes, on two weekly closes below the 50-week moving average. Now, if you zoom in to 2022, you can find a week or two where, you know, you you were technically above it, but that's why I say look for follow-through. It it's not just the weekly close, it's the follow-through beyond it.

So, let me show you some examples. In 2023, when we got above the 50-week moving average, it was a massive move up, right? I mean, well above it, leaving no doubt. In 2019, when we got above it, there was follow-through the next week, kind of confirming that the bear market was over. So, you can see two clear examples right there of the bear market ending when Bitcoin got through the 50-week moving average. You can see that both times it got to the 50-week though, it hesitated for a little bit before breaking through.

Now, if you go back uh even further to 2015, you can see that we got through the 50-week moving average in October, and there was follow-through the following week. So, when you get through it, if there's follow-through the next week, that more or less confirms that the bear market is in fact likely over. Now, there are times, if you look at the bull market support band, or in the case of a bear market, the bear market resistance band, there are plenty of times where Bitcoin has broken through the bear market resistance band, and then got rejected at the 50-week moving average.

You can see that it happened in April of 2022. You can see that it also happened in July of 2018, right? So, July 2018, we broke through the bull market support band, wicked above the 50-week moving average, and then got rejected, and then we came right back down. And then of course as well, in in 2015, you can see that we got through the bull market support band up to the 50-week, got rejected, came back down, and then on the next attempt, we were we were successful.

So, obviously, we all have our bias as to what we want to happen, right? I mean, it depends on whether you've been DCA'ing, whether you haven't. If you think the low's already in, obviously you want the market to go up. If you think the low is going to come in Q4, you obviously want the market to go down. Clearly, I've been more so a pro proponent of time-based capitulation, where it can take the better part of a year in order to really get the bull market going again.

That's at least what history has shown us with the exception of 2019, which if we're being honest, there's there's some reasons to make that comparison. As we've said, I mean, we were one of the first channels talking about this many, many years ago. The comparison to the 2019 bull market and how it was more or less a Bitcoin dominance bull market and why there would be no rotation into altcoins. But, in this case, we can all have our bias.

There's always what we want to happen. What I'll say is this, in the same way that closes below the 50-week moving average marked definitively that the bull market was over, I would argue that multiple closes above the 50-week moving average, especially with follow-through, would probably, I mean, there's no such thing as a sure thing, but would likely dictate the the bear market being over if Bitcoin can get above those levels.

All right? Now, again, I know there's a lot of emotions running right now and and people want to know what's going to happen, but I will say this, right? If at any point you feel absolutely convinced, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the low is in, then you know, not buying because you're up 20%, 30%, whatever off the low, um it'd be like not buying Bitcoin at 20K in January 2023 because you didn't buy the bottom or not buying Bitcoin at $5,000 in April 2019 because you missed the low.

Right? Like, at the time, it can feel bad to buy, but it's not necessarily about time, obviously, if the low is in. And so, this is why a lot of people want to know if the low is in is because if it is, they don't want to get left behind, but at the same time, they don't want to be be schmuck FOMOing in at a local high. And this is why I I pleaded with people for the last couple of months that talking about new lows is more of an academic exercise and that I was still DCAing in the second half of the midterm year below 0.3 risk, which unfortunately only occurred for 5 days, right? 5 days.

So, not a very long period of time. Admittedly, you know, I I arguably starting to buy on July 1st wasn't the worst day to buy because that actually marked the low. Uh but now there's all these narratives swirling on Twitter uh from you know, especially from people that were were bull posting the entire way down that are you know, hell-bent on on creating their own narratives. But again, you got to let that stuff go, right?

Like I can't listen to all that stuff. All I have to listen to is the chart. That's all I have. Like I don't care about the opinions of you know, of of the people that just want to create drama for the sake of creating drama. What I want to do is I want to listen to what the chart is saying, right? And if there is acceptance above the 50-week, I will listen to that. And I will not, you know, bang the drum that it has to play out a different way.

But at the same time, I have to look through history and say, "Look, there have also been times where Bitcoin rallied through the bear market resistance band only to get rejected by the 50-week." It happened in the summer of 2018. It happened in 2015. It also happened in 2022. You could also argue that every cycle Bitcoin gets rejected by the 50-week moving average at some point, right? You can see in 2018 it happened in in July in 2014.

Um Um it didn't happen until the post-halving year, but still rejected by it on the first attempt, okay? And to a new low, it happened in 2022, rejected by the 50-week. We haven't actually made it to the 50-week yet. Like we got close back in January when Bitcoin rallied up to almost 98k, but at the time the 50-week moving average was closer to like what? 100k? Yeah, it was it was 101k at the time. So, really this is Bitcoin's first time even testing the 50-week moving average throughout the bear market.

And again, this is something that has always been tested in all prior bear markets was the 50-week moving average. And so now the question just simply becomes do we accept above it or below it? Time-based capitulation would suggest it it's going to be hard to get through. Okay? If I were to just look at time-based capitulation and the way the market historically acts, it would argue that it's a little too early to get through it.

Be that as it may. If the market proves me wrong and says, "You know what? Great idea, Ben, but you're wrong." Then I will accept that and I I will come on here as clear as I am now and say, "Look, the the bear market at that point would be over in my opinion. In my opinion." But until that time occurs, right? Until that time occurs, I feel like I would do I'd be doing myself a disservice to ignore, you know, some of the prior moves above the bear market resistance band that led us to the 50-week only to be rejected.

So, let's see what happens. If it's a rejection by the 50-week, it should happen sooner rather than later, right? I don't think we would linger for too long if it's going to be a rejection. The longer we stay at elevated prices, you would argue the more likely it is that we would break through. Like in 2018 when we got up to the 50-week moving average, we got up to it one week and then the next week we were rejected.

In 2015 when we got up to it, we got up to it and then the next week we were just rejected back down and then we got back up to it once more, but again, it was the second week. A clear rejection off the 50-week moving average after getting to it. So, next week will be instrumental in helping us understand is this just simply a rally to a rejection or is it more? Because if it's more than what you would expect, you would expect to linger at the 50-week for a number of weeks and then to break through.

Maybe find support at the bull market support band and then break through. Those are my thoughts. I'm trying to be as honest as I can. I'm trying to communicate as clearly as I can. I know emotions are running hot right now, running really, really high. Uh but those are my views. Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe, give the video thumbs up, and hopefully I'll see you at the conference in November. Link's in the description below.

I'll see you guys next time. Bye.