Gold: Dubious Speculation transcript

Hey everyone and thanks for dipping back into the heavy metal verse. Today we're going to talk about gold dubious speculation. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also be sure to check out the upcoming ITC conference, Investing Through the Cycles Conference. Main conference day will be November 21st. We'll also have some talks the night before on the 20th.

So, make sure you guys check that out. Link is in the description below. Gold is now at 4,100 and it's been coming down quite quickly ever since about late August. So I want to talk about, you know, what gold has done in the past um from a seasonality perspective. I want to talk about what gold has done under various macro conditions where the yield the long end of the yield curve is running and then kind of apply that today and see if we can find anything that makes some some sense.

Okay. So the first thing to say is that often times on average gold bottoms in the summer of midterm years on average. Occasionally it bottoms a little later, right? And some of the last couple of midterm years are examples of that. Uh where if you look at say 2022, you can see that it found a low in July but then it went slightly lower into in sort of the October November time frame. And then if you look at 2018 um you'll see that gold basically went down into mid August.

That's where it found a low and then the low that occurred in October was in fact a higher low, right? So it there's slight differences between how it plays out, right? It doesn't always play out uh the exact same way. And you know, you can see in 2014 the low occurred in the midterm year closer to around like late October, which was a slightly lower. where it was a lower low compared to where it had been previously in in the summer.

Right? So you have examples where occasionally it's a lower low and then occasionally it's a higher low but in all prior or sorry in the last three midterm years there was a low in the summer and then it was either a higher low or a lower low in you know kind of like the October November time frame. Now, one of the things that you should be aware of is that in the last two midterm years for gold, one of the reasons arguably it was dropping at that at that time, right?

You see these drops that gold has kind of similar to the drop it's having now. What what was occurring in both of those cases is that the long end of the yield curve was going up. Now, what you'll find is that in 2018, gold bottomed shortly before the long end of the old curve topped. You can see that pretty clearly right there, right? It bottomed a few weeks beforehand. In 2022, gold bottomed kind it started to bottom like late September and then kind of tested those lows into October.

But you can see that it basically bottomed slightly before the long end of the old curve topped. So, one thing to look for for a high on the long end would just simply be look for strength in gold. Look for gold to stop dropping and go up despite rising yields. We have not seen that yet. At the time of this video, gold is up slightly, but we should be aware that that doesn't mean it can't go a little bit lower, you know, over the next couple of weeks.

Um, and I know people ask, is it a is it a higher low? Is it a lower low? All the prior examples, if you go through them, I it's a mixed bag, right? So, it's hard to say with confidence like what it's going to be because it has been, you know, such a mixed bag over the last um over the last several midterm years. Now, if you look at the year-to- date ROI of gold in 2026 compared to 2022, you can see kind of where how it bottomed around the same time in 2022 and then it had a rally and then it came back down into the same area that it's coming back down into now.

Right? Like this is there was some strength this time. the strength was a little bit more pronounced just like it was earlier in the year and then it's coming back down kind of in that same time frame. And then if you look at it compared to say 2014, you'll see something kind of similar, right? Like gold was still weak into into early November um after sort of an early top a high at the in the early part of the year and then it sort of faded down.

I've also compared to other you know times throughout history, right? And and one of the analogs that I had pointed to in prior videos was the one from 1974, you know, where gold sort of rallied up in the early part of the year, found a low in the summer, bounced, and then came back down into the October time frame. That was a higher low. Um, but again, for every higher low, you can find an example of a lower low. But what you will find is that in a lot of these cases, if you look at the year-to- date ROI of the 10-year right now, remember in 2022 and in 2018, the 10ear was going up right around the same time as it is now.

And then gold bottomed right before the 10-year topped. Okay, so gold bottomed before the 10-year topped in those cases. And so what's interesting is it it feels like the 10-year right now is absolutely going parabolic. And you know that's certainly weighing some on on the markets, right? Like I mean it it has been for a little bit. I mean the surprisingly I the S&P has actually been holding up fairly well so far. Um, so but regardless, it hasn't been going up and arguably the reason it hasn't been going up despite, you know, earnings being relatively okay and the AI trade still working is because the long end of the yield curve has has been struggling.

And what happened while while the 10-year right now looks parabolic, if you normalize the 10-year for the last two or sorry, I forget for the last two midterm years, what you'll see is if you look at it in 2026, it looks pretty parabolic. But if you look at it in 2018, it was basically doing the same thing. In fact, normalized from the yearly open, the 10-year yield has essentially moved up the same amount as it had in 2018 at this time.

You see, essentially the same amount. And if you look at 2022, it was even more pronounced than it is today. But what's interesting is that you can see that the 10-year yield in 2022 and 2018 topped between, let's call it October, you know, it was either October, November, sometime in the October to November time frame is when the 10-year yield topped. And that also corresponds to around the time that gold bottomed, right?

Gold bottom slightly before the 10-year yield topped. and risk assets didn't get the memo until after the 10-year yield topped. Now, that doesn't mean that it's going to play out that way this time. This time, we have the technology, right, the AI, the change in productivity and and we have seen the stock market remain resilient so far. Historically, corrections in the stock market and midterm years start around August or September.

Um, and then they can go for a month or two, sometimes three if you're looking at 2018. But that is not a guarantee that it has to happen again. I mean, you we've looked at these three midterm years, 2014, 2018, and 2022, but there are times like 2010 where the stock market went up into the end of the year, right? So it it's not a perfect science, but what it does go to show if you think about it from like a narrative perspective, what's playing out?

Well, as the long end goes up, so as the long end goes up, gold immediately does not like that, right? It it reacts very quickly to that. And gold goes down as the long goes higher. And you can see that pretty clearly time and time again that gold does not really like it. Especially in the back half of midterm years. Gold does not really like it when the long end is going up. And you can see that this is the third time in a row that this has in fact happened.

Gold does start to like it when it sniffs out the 10-year yield topping. Okay. And it's hard to know exactly when the 10-year yield is going to top, right? I mean, right now it's at around 5.2%. And when you look, you know, when you look at the 10-year yield, let's look at it a little bit closer. It's been going up basically every single week, you know, I mean, this is what, eight weeks in a row now where it's moved higher or it's just been green, right?

Like it just continues to sort of slowly move up. So, it's hard calling like it's hard knowing exactly where the 10-year is going to top. If I had to guess, I would say a local top will likely be around 5 12% plus or minus, right? Like, I don't know exactly, but I would say that would seem about right. And for the 30-year, I was sort of suggesting perhaps around 6% uh plus or minus. I don't know exactly how high it's going to go, but that's what I would look towards.

Like look for the long end topping in order to get an idea of when gold might bottom. And you should actually see gold based on history, you should actually see gold show some strength before the long end tops. And so what's interesting is, you know, if you look if you look at when the stock market was dropping this year, you might assume that it was dropping when the long end was going up, but it actually wasn't, right? the the major sort of weaker times for the stock market.

If you look at say February, March 2026, like when it was going down, that was actually corresponding to the 10-year yield going down. And then the next drop we had, this was back in like May, June, the stock market dropped like what, 10%, not even 10%. But it corresponded to the 10-year yield going down. So, what essentially happens is the the 10-year yield goes up, the dollar goes up, and gold goes down because gold does not like rising yields and a rising dollar does not like it.

But then at some point, gold sniffs out that yields are topping and then gold starts to go back up. And when yields top, historically, right, there's two ways to reconcile it. When yields top, risk assets might like it if it's for the right reason. If yields are topping because there's a growth scare, then risk assets can go down even with rising yields. But it it it varies depending on like what regime you're in. In 2023, stocks were dropping here as the as yields were going up.

But that is that is sort of one regime. But there are times like in 2026 where and in say like 2018 where stocks only started to drop after the long end topped and it was because sort of these two lows here the sort of the the Q1 low and the uh and the summer low they occurred when the 10-year yield was dropping right for the S&P more or less like plus or minus like a week or two and it was on a growth scare, right? It was it was more so a growth scare than anything else.

And the same thing was true in 2025 as well, right? Like stocks were going up as long as the 10-year was going up. But then when the 10ear was dropping, so too were stocks. So sometime around, you know, late 2024, early 2025, the relationship kind of flipped where stocks were generally holding on as long as the 10ear went up and kind of shrugging off that weakness, like the the higher borrowing cost, all that. It just kind of shrugged it off.

And it wasn't until the 10-year topped and there was a growth scare that that caused any type of weakness in the stock market. And there are times where when the 10-year tops, the initial reaction is for risk assets to go up. But then if they realize that the reason it's topping is because of a growth scare, that's when they can then drop. Now, I want to be clear. I'm not calling for, you know, for the stock market to put in its final top or anything like that.

If anything, the stock market has remained incredibly resilient here. Incredibly resilient. And I do think the stock market will eventually go higher, which is why, you know, I just buy index funds monthly no matter what I think is going to happen because I have to admit to myself that timing the market is essentially nearly impossible, especially to do it in a in a way that is repeatable. Hope that makes sense. So if there is a correction in stocks then I would assume it would just yield a higher low.

We have the anthropic IPO coming up uh maybe in in a little over a month. We also have the OpenAI IPO coming out in likely in 2027. So I I think the stock market will still hold on through that sort of stuff. That doesn't mean it won't drop. In fact, around the time of the SpaceX IPO back in the summer, that's when you had that that correction um by the by the stock market. If you look at just the S&P, you know, around right around before the SpaceX IPO, the stock market dropped about 5%, right?

It wasn't a lot, but it was about about 5% or so. Um and then earlier this year, it was about a a 10% drop. So IPOs don't mean that the market can't go down. A lot of times it's the anticipation of the IPO that kind of draws money out of the markets because the money then wants to go specifically into this name. Um so we'll see, you know, we'll see if that happens again. But as it as all this relates to gold, what you're seeing right now is not abnormal, right?

Like gold typically finds a low in the summer, rallies a little, and then comes back down into Q4. And sometimes it's a higher low, and sometimes it's a lower low. It likely just simply depends on how far the long end is going to rally. And the reason why that is so hard to know with any type of confidence is because the energy trade, who knows what that's going to lead to. I mean, if you look at oil, right? If you look at oil and the conflict over in the Middle East, you know, it it's really impossible to know how that's ultimately going to resolve.

I I think that, you know, a lot of people would have assumed that by now it would have been resolved a long long time ago, but it just hasn't been resolved. And oil is essentially just kind of marching higher, right? Like it's just slowly marching up. And if this continues this trajectory, then it's only a matter of time before yields, you know, sniff that out. Now, I will say I I spent a little bit of time looking through history.

There are a lot of times where yields top before oil does. And that doesn't mean a new necessarily new high by oil, but there are plenty of times where yields will top sooner than than say like the energy trader or or the oil markets. Oil could go higher, but then energy could be topping um sooner or yields could be topping sooner. what I mean to say. So with oil, we're still not sure, right, how this is ultimately going to resolve is I mean, if you listen to what the president has said, it sounds like he's not going to deal with it until after midterms, but we both know that that can change very quickly because, you know, it doesn't really like there there's like one headline one day And then the next day it's a completely different headline.

And then it's you're kind of stuck not really knowing what to believe, right? Like is it over? Is not over. And markets generally don't like uncertainty, which is probably the reason why the stock one of the reasons the stock market has at least thought out is because I see a headline every single day and I'm like, "Oh, it's over or it's not over." And then the next day it's just the opposite. And so, who knows, right?

Like, who knows what this is going to do. But I have a feeling that this would obviously affect things like yields. But remember, yields are not only going up because of the oil trade. And I think that might be something that the the market is kind of assuming is the case. Yields are also going up arguably because the Fed funds rate is no longer restrictive. If you look at the Fed funds rate and then let's let's just look at the Fed funds rate and then if you overlay um the 2-year yield, what you'll see is that the Fed funds rate is now very very far below very far below the 2-year yield.

And I'm using the 2-year yield sort of as a way to approximate the neutral rate. And so, as it stands right now, the 2-year yield, right, if you look at the 2-year yield, it's at around 4.9%. But the Fed funds rate is only at around 4%. So, what that means is that the 2-year the Fed funds rate is arguably about 90 basis points lower than than the two than the neutral rate. And so, one reason that the 30-year yield is going up is arguably just because policy is not really that restrictive right now.

And the markets are more so starting to worry about inflation than a recession. Right? we've already seen inflation starting to sort of trickle back up. Um, and so that is the reason that is the big reason why the long end's going up. It's not just because of energy prices, right? Like it's not and we know that we we have to be aware that it's not just energy that is forcing this higher. It's also the fact that the Fed funds rate is too low relative to the neutral rate to actually bring inflation back down to target.

If the if the Fed funds rate were currently sitting at 5%, then the 30-year yield would likely be dropping or at least staying flat. But it's because the Fed funds rate is so low relative to the approximation here of the neutral rate that's what's causing this uh you know that's that's another reason why the long end of the O curve has just continued to sort of scream higher. So, I don't know how this conflict in the Middle East is going to play out, right?

Like, and I don't want to pretend to know. Like, I just simply do not know. But we do know as it relates to gold that gold struggles when yields go up and it struggles when the dollar goes up and the dollar is also continuing to go up. And and this was the base case, right? The base case that I we talked about was that the dollar would go up and that it would be the dollar going up that would be the short-term bearish thing for gold that would bring it back down into like the September October time frame.

And the same thing happened in uh in 2022 and in 2018, right? Like in 2022 the dollar was also going up and in 2018 you can see that the dollar was going up. In fact, if you overlay that, if you look at the Dixie in 2026 and compare it to 2018, same same spot as it was in 2018 at this time. 2022, I think it was a lot higher, right? But still the the quantitatively it was different, but qualitatively it's the same, right? in the sense that the dollar goes up into the October time frame, might settle out a little bit before the year is over, right?

You could start to see it go back down as we get further towards the end of the year. But in the short term, you have a rising dollar, you have a rising long end, that's been tough for gold to manage. But in order to in order to figure out when when yields are likely topping, look for a divergence. look for yields to go higher and for gold to actually show strength. And I think that will be the first sign that the long end is starting to top.

So that's what I'd be looking for. And I'd also be looking for gold to to carve out a low uh sometime over the next few weeks, right? I mean, you know, this is the window I've said I've said before starting around midepptember is the earliest that you would expect either the higher low or lower low to form. starting around midepptember. We're there now. So, I have to be open-minded to that. And I would say it could last a little bit longer, right?

I mean, it could go into into October. Um, there is there's some precedent before for going into even early November, but that is around the time when you would expect gold to carve out that low and then to start heading back up. And then as gold heads back up, that's when yields should be coming back down. But those are my views. Thank you guys for tuning in. Subscribe, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the Investing Through the Cycles conference.

Link is in the description below. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.