Part 2 \ How To Probe Low Probability RTH Opening Ranges 07/14/2026 transcript

Good morning, folks. How are you? And actually let's get this pesky little thing out of the way. What's this doing here? Good grief. All right. So, um yesterday I was giving my son a lecture on the probing of a low probability opening range. And the opening range yesterday was just ahead of today, which we have CPI number at 8:30 Eastern time, and we have just a little under an hour away from that occurring. I'm going to try to help and do this and post it on YouTube so that way you guys can see it as a little bit of a review.

Uh but let's go out to a daily chart real quick cuz I have a few people on mix and on my comment section of yesterday's video. Don't worry, we'll see what all this stuff is in a minute. Um I talked about how this area was my immediate focus. And then I said the whole the whole range to the downside cuz we're probing the low probability opening range. So, what does that mean? How far can it go? Now, I understand some of you are looking at this and saying, "Well, you know, if you if you click the set here it'll do this and do that.

The close being 9:31 quarter open 37.75. There is a volume imbalance there. But price was already below that yesterday when we were looking at price. So, if I'm looking for how far it can drop down, if you go back and listen to what I was discussing with Caleb I wanted to see how far it can drop down. So, it it it's not warranted to concern ourselves with the upper volume bounds. It's it's not not pertinent to what I was disclosing yesterday.

So, I mentioned this one down here. So, with that in mind, we're going to drop that in. Okay, so what we're highlighting there. And then we'll we'll see what these lines are here and all this business. But I want to bring it to your attention that it wasn't that I was incorrectly annotating it. You're not paying attention to what I was saying in the lecture yesterday. How far can it go down? How far can it go? Okay? And when we drop back down into a 1-minute time frame, and we'll go to 13th and we'll do the 9:30 a.m.

Get up around 9:15. All right. So, the market had several things in here that I took careful attention to. I was going backwards and looking at the uh 9:30 candle. We'll highlight it with a vertical line and I'll promise I won't make this video very long. So, there's a opening, okay? I'll show you what these lines are in a moment. But we're going back through old price action and by going to the left, I took care of look at this.

Look how obvious that is. Now, what you're learning this is why I chose those relative equal lows. What are those relative equal lows inside of? Oh, the daily charts volume imbalance, the low end, where I said how far can it probe lower? Go back and watch yesterday's video, folks. I understand this is just under an hour, and you have other things to look at and, you know, waste time on social media with. But if you're here to learn, I'm telling you what to do.

I'm telling you how to find it, okay? Now, I'm going to refine that today. Rather succinctly. So, we have these relative equal lows. I like them because I already knew that the volume imbalance agreed with this. So, now what am I saying What am I saying and teaching? When I like to go back through old data to the left and determine where a higher low may form for the day or the session. Okay, either either or. What I'm looking for is some higher time frame key level.

Now, that may be a weekly, that may be a daily. Predominantly, it's going to be a daily. I've said this ad nauseam. Unless you have a daily chart perspective, you don't have the highest degree of probability on your favor. So, by knowing where these things occur and form, and I mentioned them yesterday, okay? The apt pupil would have already determined because of that volume imbalance that I was indicating in yesterday's lecture with Caleb, that you should have it on your chart.

And you'll see why this agrees if this is what I was looking for. We have a low here, we have relative equal lows here, and we have this swing low here. But I wanted this one. Why? Because it's the first one dropping down in from where we were at 9:30. And if we go to regular trading hours, look at this. Mr. volume profile. We don't get on our knees around here, by the It's It's wild behavior on on social media, by the way.

Crazy level stuff. All right, so here is the low. Now, if you go watch yesterday's video, which I uploaded well before your daily chart completed, there's your low of the day. Volume profile didn't tell you that. Elliot waves didn't tell you that. Gann didn't tell you that. ICT Michael did, okay? So, this business of uh trading down here, and then go back and listen. I said if you can go down there, knock those out, then listen.

Then it could come back up into Monday's opening range gap, regular trading hours opening range gap. So, this is how we settled the regular trading hours session. And if we go into electronic trading hours, it did in fact go lower than that. Here's where we went into it here. Again, there's the low at regular trading hours. We swiped below it one more time, came back up. Model 2022, sells off, goes just below that old low I was showing you over here, which I made no reference to yesterday, by the way.

I want you to know that. I I mentioned nothing about that particular low. My focus was right here. And that was the low of the day yesterday. That's probably random. I get I get these random acts of uh precision that just come around like, you know. It's I don't know where it comes from, folks. I really don't know. But, that we drop down into this this low comes in at uh 29,325.75. So, we're just one tick away hitting that level.

It rallied up. Took out relative equal highs here. Then and the peak of uh Asia last night we sold off again. Went back down through that volume imbalance in in yellow. And then we swept that low there. Then we rallied back through that volume imbalance. Midnight. Midnight. Watch, folks. Watch. If you look at the uh midnight candle right there. Okay, there's the open. There you go. Now, if you want to trade London nice little opportunity.

Trades lower back down into a breaker. What's this low? High, lower low. No volume profile required. No footprint required. Very easy. It took liquidity. We rallied up. Retracement into an order block there. Let me draw it for you. Change in the state of delivery is the open. Beautiful. Rallies away. Comes back down into a breaker. Low, high, lower low. Here's your breaker. And then it has a fair value gap at the same location that the breaker forms.

Beautiful. That's another unicorn. Super strong. Super super strong. Rally. You want to see does it show to go higher? Yes. And then we create another little fair value gap in here. Wouldn't you know it? Expected higher prices. We have relative equal highs here. Now, if you were you know, just a small-time scalper and you didn't have any expectation of a a rally higher up, then you could just simply take that high here and be content with that.

Or you could go and look for higher price run in the direction of what I mentioned yesterday. Here is the opening range gap low for Monday. That's 9:30 a.m. Eastern time yesterday. Opening price. Notice how we've gravitated from all this. We consolidated in here and squaring positions ahead of CPI is warranted. It doesn't matter if I'm right and it goes all the way up and closes in to the high of the opening range gap from yesterday.

Or trades to new week opening gap, which is what this is up here. That's all new week opening gap. It doesn't matter because you know, 14,000, 13,000, 15,000 is what it is. Okay? Sleeping overnight, waking up, making that kind of bread, yeah, it's a good thing. And risking it on the heels of a day that we anticipated certain characteristics about being low probability. And you can see we didn't really do too much in regards to trading into the gap.

Here's the open at 9:30. We went up, hit the lowest octant in the opening range gap. There, and that was it. We went lower. We traded down to that lower volume imbalance at the regular trading hours portion of the sessions. Then in overnight and when we resume trading post 4:15 Eastern time, electronic trading hours came back in went went lower went lower here took out a low and then we have a market structure shift here.

So now gravitate back towards what? Yesterday's opening range gap. That's the low here. That's 9:30's opening price. there. So, what we've seen overnight is the ability for price to want to gravitate up towards that opening range gap again and then we want to see if it can now make an attempt to get up to consequent quarter of it. So that'll be around 20 29,881 1/2. Okay, right there. And then to the upper half of it and then maybe explore into the new week opening gap which you can see over here.

That's what this is. So I'll I'll take this off for a moment and take this off for a moment and take this off for a moment. There's the new week opening gap which we came back up in. Notice it didn't do a full gap closure. That's why it was decidedly weak. Sunday night sold off sell side here. So I'm looking for price to basically get up into these areas today as I mentioned yesterday. And if it can't do it today, I expect it to do it tomorrow on the PPI number.

Okay? I will not be participating. Um my advice is if you're in something, your stop loss isn't going to save you. Um and it's still gamble. You know, I I could be wrong. I could be wrong about where price is likely to go. I believe it's going to go higher uh because we have unfinished business up here with yesterday's regular trading hours opening range gap, and we have new week opening gap that didn't fully close. So, I just don't think that uh it warrants and the risk associated with holding something ahead of CPI or PPI.

Because if you're wrong, okay, uh your open profit that's unrealized could evaporate immediately and then put you into a net loss position. The extreme price runs, they tend to be that's what I mean by I've seen a few where they're kind of like lackluster, didn't do anything. But, it's not worth the risk and gamble if you have something open in profit. This is not the last trading day of your career. Okay, if you catch a a move up into these levels and you're long, you know, that's wonderful.

I'm not going to high five you or congratulate you or like your post because I'm telling you that that is not sound behavior. That's it's not what a a very good risk manager does. They they stay out of the harmful likelihood of things like these reports, just like non-farm payroll. You got you got to You have to manage risk impeccably. And managing risk impeccably does not entail trading CPI and PPI numbers. Okay? So, I wish you all a very pleasant day today.

And be careful if you're out there, you know, recklessly plunging ahead. And if you hurt yourself, remember I told you so.