Risk On Continues for Bitcoin and Altcoin Market as XRP, ETH, BTC & Alts Close Quarter Positive transcript

[music] Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the blockchain backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis. Today we'll be taking a look over here at the Bitcoin price chart along with the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin continues humming along being rangebound for about 10 or 11 days right now. But still really kind of continuing to hum along right on track of what you would expect as we're just kind of climbing back up a wall of worry here in the cryptocurrency market.

You got XRP sitting down there at a $154 still bucking up against its 50WE moving average. So we'll kind of talk about this for a minute too. Otherwise, we're really just kind of moving along right on Q as we historically do and really how you would expect. After we hit the 300WE moving average, we've now gotten through the 50WE moving average and we went ahead and did a completely full-sized bare market throughout here.

Now, we're just in that wall of worry climb. Where will ranges start to build? How long will it take for us to get out of here? Those are the things we all speculate on and everybody wants to hear. incoming outrageous price targets, all those types of things right now as sentiment has clearly turned a corner after going through the depths of fear and extreme fear. Now to be entered back into greed for the first time since really back over in here since August of 2025 and just briefly there in October as you guys all know when the crowd kind of went a little wild and a little offsides right there at that up thrust after distribution for Bitcoin right up in here.

But we do finally see some greed returning. These things always happen. We talked about it down in the depths of despair. Don't worry, it will come back and it's hard to realize it when you're right there in the thick of the moment and when you're at the max pain point rarely there of the market. But everything really just seems to be fine in this market. There haven't really been a whole lot of developments throughout this week to highlight to say something crazy happened.

We're really kind of like right where we were last week. Although last week we did pull back a little bit to close the week. You can see this week it has climbed up just a little bit trying to produce the third candle close in the green after breaking through the 50week moving average. Of course highlighting every time we break through the 50week moving average. We are back into a riskon environment. It doesn't mean we won't have corrections.

We won't see liquidations. They absolutely will come. New ranges will develop. But the context shifts from top bare market bottoming to now risk on. The thing with risk on is they can just take some time to work their way out and get their way up. The thing everyone has to focus on is just managing their own time expectations. Everybody wants it to happen very quickly. And while I'd love to tell you it's going to happen quickly, and I do think it'll happen faster than historical cycles.

Like from this point it's usually about 85 weeks from breaking from the 50we moving average to actually being able to go into expansion. I think back in 2023 24 was 86 weeks. Back here in 2019 to 2020 it was 85 weeks, right? So we definitely get excited. We definitely want to hear, hey, we're going to the moon right away. Um I don't think it's going to take this long. I I've highlighted that many times due to this that Russell that was really holding us down that breadth struggle that was happening throughout macro markets compared to now that we have just such a massive divergence that needs to kind of close the gap throughout here along with that IGV.

I just definitely don't see this taking you know way out till 2028 to be able to get out of there. I think we'll do this faster than what we're used to and that playing the timing game is going to be a fool's errand. I think everybody can probably acknowledge that now. If you tried to play the timing game at the top, you got yourself wrongfooted. If you tried to play the timing game down here at the bottom, you got yourself wrongfooted.

So sometimes you have to have a little bit of humbleness or humility on timing and just acknowledge the market's going to move at its own pace. But even moving at a velocity like this, I think it'd be reasonable to think, you know, somewhere in the middle of 2027, we could be trying to go and hit those new all-time highs there for Bitcoin. I'll take something sooner. But, you know, that seems to be a more reasonable analogy between what we're doing here in the market and what we've historically done.

But, I could see us seeing price action and excitement happen prior to, of course, getting to 2027 potentially here in 2026. Just kind of even the velocity that even XRP has moved at in here. So, we're stuck at this 50week moving average for XRP. It's at a buck 53 right now. you know, based on all of our past bare markets that we've gone through for XRP, it has still just chugged along right on pace, right? It's hard to believe here we are in October of 2026.

This is November of 2024. I think I kept saying while we were throughout all of this stuff is I'm like I people are trying to think that this bare market started right in here back in October, but the reality is the bare market actually began way back in here. uh we are already correcting throughout here throughout the crypto market and for Bitcoin and for most altcoins but even at this velocity of where the peak is how capitulations happen when you see little pops show up in here and the timings of these things right that I just wouldn't be surprised it's still this year here in 2026 that we could see price get as high as like 250 and I got to be careful with the XRP community because there are so many YouTubers and influencers who are telling you $1,000 that I don't mean $250 I $2.50.

That would be really the range boundary area for XRP to try to build a new range and then try to get to expansion. And like I've talked about in past videos, right? Typically, this is going to be our area. We're going to pause out throughout in here. This is more so just a ricochet happening off the lows and the market being incredibly offsides. Everybody trying to pour back in and get back in realizing, wait a minute, yeah, we've done everything that's already done.

A bare market throughout in here. We went oversold way back over in here. We've already had our FTX moment. Uh these day these were 144 days apart between the capitulation phase and FTX collapsing and the capitulation phase and then Michael Sailor selling the literal low. Exactly 144 days apart and then of course we go do everything to to symbolize this. So people are waking up to it. People are trying to pour back in and get positions and all that stuff, right?

I think even for the the October people, right? the September October 40 to 50k crew. You know, today is now October 2nd. Uh this market obviously topped back there I believe on October 4th. Let's get the exact date. October 7th, right? So you've got less than a week now. And of course, if you go back and you measure all of these things, they're usually like there's November 11th of 2021. You know, here's November 20th.

FTX collapses right in here. Same thing like November 11th. You go back throughout here, the peak of Bitcoin happened there on December 17th, whereas the altcoin market continued rampaging. But I know everybody uses Bitcoin but December 17th and then of course the bottom comes in here December 14th. So but you know if you listen to my argument down there when we were at the bottom my argument was the top of Bitcoin was actually right here August 14th and that this was merely an upthrust after distribution and the altcoin market didn't cooperate with it.

That was the literal peak in August and that's why we ricocheted off the lows in August. But you know when it comes to October you don't have many days left right for the for the October stuff. I think everybody's kind of capitulated on those dates. But the point I'm making of all of this is that the money coming back in, it's not like it's it's an actual expansion happening right now or like XRP people wanting to see the price absolutely skyrocket and go into new all-time highs.

Believe me, I'm right there with you, man. But, you know, it's just kind of important to understand the context of where we're at. This is coming off the lows. This is a lot of wrong footing. There's a lot of money trying to come back in right in here. Uh it's not like we're in an expansion, which you would obviously see over here on the IGV happening at the same time. The IGV is stuck in that same area that we're talking about in here for Bitcoin.

This is the capitulation zone in here. That's where IGV is all stuck throughout in here while Bitcoin's trying to do the catch-up trade right now. The Bitcoin dominance is still stuck. So, this tells you exactly what's going on. that this is the whole market rebounding, repricing, readjusting to the psychology of believing that the low was not going to hold and that we were going to see 40 to 50, but that money is just kind of pouring back in everywhere or getting itself repositioned.

Not necessarily that we have like an expansion of what happens during all seasons where the Bitcoin dominance really collapses throughout in here. So, we have to understand that context and being like, okay, look, there's no movement happening here in the Bitcoin dominance. So, our context is that the whole market is retracing. We're going to find a range and then once we can try to get our way out of here with macro markets, that's going to be where we can try to find things of expansions, altcoins pumping, XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum, everything, right?

And so, still, I don't see anything telling us we're like ready to stop here just yet or that we're not going to continue climbing a little bit higher. Uh, but I think my main focus, of course, is just kind of keeping those expectations set because everybody has these time preferences that they do follow. And if we were on something where it would be like XRP, it is time you may send like in 2024, you know, I I would be looking for macro markets to be telling us that.

Bitcoin setting a new all-time high. There's confluence. There's some type of event happening and there's just a lot of things all lined up together. We're just not there yet at this phase. This is us ricocheting off the low. Then we'll come the new range and then we're looking for macro to all break out together. And like shown, the way that makes the most sense to me is just if we just do do something like this where we're just kind of ranging throughout in here and it's this moment in time where we're looking for something to say Bitcoin can go back to the high and then right in here, this phase is very specific in the past two cycles that there's something that happens in the market that convinces people this is the Bitcoin only show.

You'll have the Bitcoin maxis screaming, why would you own any altcoins? Look at how much pain you're in. Look at Bitcoin. We're killing it. We're amazing. And then the crowd starts to actually believe in it and kind of capitulates and and shifts all their stuff into Bitcoin. And then it's once that break happens, that's where the altcoins end up doing their stuff. And so what I'm trying to do is prevent like too much hype without being a wet blanket, without being Debbie Downer and saying, "Yes, look at this.

This is awesome. We've got everything that we need to come off the lows, right? We came in and swooped off of that 300week moving average. We busted through the 50week moving average. This is all excellent stuff. This is usually where we range ourselves out for a little while and then we're going to wait for macro to come in and cooperate to push us up in here and then that's where you see alt season. And until then, you know, we're just kind of, you know, humming along in this kind of stuff right in here.

It's all great. It's all wonderful. Just trying to kind of present it from, you know, that most realistic light of what we see usually from that pre-capitulation range that ends up happening for markets that there's usually a stall out that happens in there like I've highlighted from past market cycles where you have your pre-capitulation range, you break through that 50week moving average, but then still there is some ranging that happens throughout in here.

And so we just have to be mindful of it while at the same time still being allowed to, you know, be optimistic and excited that the market has turned the corner, things are better. We've gone a full-size bare market. We've done all the technicals, all the onchains for a reversal to happen. It's just usually when we kind of get to these types of phases throughout here, we all kind of get ahead of ourselves. We start kind of counting our chickens or counting our eggs before they've hatched because we've spent so much time down here in the fear and the extreme fear that once we have just a simple taste of that greed in there, you know, our time preferences all shift.

And I think my job is just to come on here and say, "Hey, look, you know, this is how things typically go." And yet, I mean, it's still at the same time, it's really exciting, right? Frankly, I'm excited with the idea of it not taking 85 to 87 weeks after the 50week moving average breaks, right? I think we could do it a lot faster than that. But it's important to remember this isn't like a meme coin, right? It isn't like an illlquid $50,000 meme coin or a million dollar memecoin that an influencer can tweet about and pump and dump.

It's a major market, right? [laughter] in major markets tend to move a little bit slower than our time preferences, but at the same time, it still just looks fantastic. And frankly, I would rather have my expectations set and grounded in a way that's more realistic to past historical behavior of the market than to have my expectations set that we're going to moon today. And then that doesn't happen and you get disappointed because if you don't realize it, right?

If let's say the price, just imagine an asset that goes to $100 and then it crashes down to 30, right? 100 and it crashes down to 30. That doesn't feel good. But you could have an asset that never does that. But you have somebody who believes, well, this thing's $10. They're believing this is coming and this is coming in 3 days, right? In 3 days it's going to go to 100. And then they they 3 days pass, four days pass, 5 days pass, and this thing's just $11.

Well, they psychologically went through that and it never happened. So, there's this like psychological impact of them believing in this like false reality that they were at 100 and they never were and then they they're back down at 11 and they're just like disappointed and sad and it's like they went through this big crash, right? And it was only their psychology that did that. They allowed them that to happen to themselves.

But it happens all the time and I think we saw a lot of that last year, right? I think a lot of that's happening right now with this whole $1,000 per XRP stuff. And you know, I'm not going to fight that battle, man. Like, I'm okay with it. Whatever. I as long as you guys know, I don't believe that'll ever come anywhere remotely close to that number. But, you know, that's not my fight to pick or my fight to be a part of.

And, you know, when I think about it, like, you know, I remember back in 2020, 20, uh, we were just coming out of C19, the price of Bitcoin was like $5,000, $6,000. My price target was 60, 70, $80,000 for Bitcoin. And people were, you know, really scared at that time. And then people were saying, "How could anybody ever pay 6070 $80,000 for a Bitcoin?" And I said, "You know what? It's just the magic of charts. We get to that 4.236 extension and suddenly everybody believes it and people will buy it and it's the craziest thing." And sure enough, once we got there, it was like a, you know, Wall Street Bets, Elon Musk, Tesla just added Bitcoin to their balance sheet above $30,000 and and like there just becomes all these reasons and everything like that.

And and the truth is, you know, if XRP does ever get to seven, eight n $10, who's going to pay for that? Who's going to buy it? Well, there's an entire marketing machine out there trying to tell these these crowds that they're going to get $1,000. And so, they'll be the buyers. So, hate it or love it. You know, there's got to be the other side of the liquidity at some point, right? And if they want to if they want to be in charge of that, by all means, they can be.

Um, otherwise, I'll try to stick to things that are just a little bit more realistic. And I'll still I'll appreciate the thousand call stuff because I frankly I think we're going to need it at some point. We're going to need that liquidity and and that belief to happen at some point. So, uh otherwise when we just stick to charts, you know, we're stuck underneath the 50, we're trying to get to a new range here for XRP.

Uh the irony is that back there in 2015 and over here in 20123, those things kind of moved right on target, which would have been kind of like December. I I definitely am not here to predict December. Don't even bother asking me in markets in the morning. Do you still think it's going to take until December? No, absolutely not. These are just I I find irony in these things in here. Uh otherwise, it is the same stuff for all of this.

Trying to work our way back up, continue the wall of worry. And in the end, the the major thing that would get me thinking, hey man, this thing could start moving quick. uh we have a lot more elements in our favor macro wise uh would be of course if that IGV just suddenly decides to start busting its way out and actually sees a true expansion take place in there. Otherwise, we look great. We're marching along. No big changes in the last week.

Just kind of reiterating thoughts and things that I'm seeing over here on the charts and in the market and just kind of waiting for the next pop to actually happen in here as we just work our way back up that wall of worry and continue our march out of that 50week moving average. while this market has behaved and ricocheted right off that 300week moving average getting through the 50 just as we anticipated, hoped and tracked for the last year and a half.

So the outlook is amazing. The outlook is fantastic but so was it down here and now we're just getting the rewards. So it's awesome. So otherwise guys, this week was pretty tame in there. However, we went ahead and flipped that. That weekly candle earlier in the week was a little bit red. Now we're a little bit green. But of course there are still, you know, from the time of me recording this at this moment, like 60 hours left in the week still.

So there's time for that to play out. But of course, we closed yet another green monthly candle. And the quarterly candle was obviously epic. Till then, it's just a time to kind of sit back, enjoy the show, twiddle your thumbs, and wait for some developments to show up on the charts. I think we could still continue marching higher into this range, but, you know, we're going to eventually shift from, you know, trying to identify bottoms like we did for several months, right?

We're looking at onchain data. We're looking at technicals. We're looking at all these things. And we're going to shift away eventually here from paying so much attention to exact structures that are happening in crypto and shifting way more towards we're looking for those elements and macro to show up that are going to give us the oomph to be able to carry our way out of here. We're not really there yet. We're still kind of in this rebound, repric, ricochet, retrace stuff off the lows, but eventually we're going to shift way more towards a macro picture.

And I know everybody and you just have to remember that's how we've always operated this channel. I know everybody wants to focus, hey, can you look at my altcoin and tell me my altcoin is going to do great and but I've always tried to paint this whole picture that you have to look at the entire thing, right? Getting the top of the cryptocurrency market back in September and of October last year was not just looking at one thing. getting the bottom of it here.

This year it was not just looking at one thing that it's a big giant picture and you have to really fit it all together and it takes a whole lot more work than you would imagine. And so the idea of really like focusing like if you're an XRP holder and focusing on Bitcoin, right? Or if you're a crypto holder and then focusing on, hey, we need to pay attention to the tech software sector of the equity market. [laughter] It's like I get it, but it's all important and in due time I'm I'm sure you will all see that light.

So, in the meantime, enjoy the show that you have right now. Have yourselves an absolutely wonderful weekend, and I will check in with you guys next week. In the meantime, just a couple of days ago, I did post another newsletter over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com. I do post two of these every month. This last one is titled, "The last domino has fallen. Bitcoin's move historically confirms risk on. Altcoins are waking up with giant structure building." And the next phase of the market begins.

It includes a 30 minute audio recording. I do record these myself after I write them. These are my more indepth pieces that I put together and they take several days to put together and they're available over there at blockchainbacker.substack.com and there's a link down here in the description of this video or you can go directly within your browser. Otherwise guys, have a great weekend and I'll catch up with you soon.

But that's it. Thank you so much for watching. If you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you can be notified of when I create new content and when I go live. As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser, but if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back.

Have a good one. [music]