Trading Complex Opening Ranges With Fed Impact 07/14/2026 transcript

All right, folks. We're going short here. It's 10:00. I believe the Fed talking is going to disrupt all this business with this fake trend line support mythology here. Uh we went up to this these lines here are yesterday's regular trading hours opening range gap. And why am I not there? It's my good grief trading deal. Getting worse and worse every day. All right, so I stop loss. We're going to put it just above the high here.

And we're going to be targeting down here. Okay? So, as this thing populates properly on the chart, I will show you what my rhyme and reason is, okay? All right, so there's several things down here. Lots of liquidity. We had the CPI number that came out. We went into half gap yesterday as I was indicating that we would likely do on CPI or PPI. Uh got to give it a little bit of time. Work out time distortion. Why don't you take a trade until 10:00?

Because the Fed chair is talking at 10:00. Okay? So, all this stuff in here is just to hurt people that think they know what they're doing. And they're going to get beat up back and forth, back and forth, stopped out, okay? So, we want to see it aggressively run towards this. Um if I can get another three contracts on inside this inversion pair I'm sorry, not inversion pair uh fair value gap. I'd like to be able to do that.

Uh this is pension block right here. And that's going to act as a inversion. You'll see it here. Okay? >> One time. One more time. Tap it one more time. One more time. One more time. Come on. I got to run over to my other 15 laptops and talk about something on them, too. Hurry up. >> [laughter] >> Now, it's going to It's done. It's going to start running now. When it gets below this low, it should really accelerate quickly, snatch up the liquidity resting below the 8:30 lows.

I don't want to bring my stop loss down too low, but I'm going to take the risk out of the trade. There. And we'll see if we can get one more tap. Uh I don't want to see it come back up to the inversion fair value gap after it takes that low out. Okay? We just smoked the uh the trend line support, folks, there. Okay, I like that. And so, I added back inside both the wick here and I'll get this out of the way. This is nonsense.

And the low lower quadrant of the bearish inversion fair value gap. So, watch how it builds momentum and accelerates below that low right here. Watch. Now, remember, I'm doing this with 15 other laptops, so it's very, very, very um difficult to be able to be everywhere at one time. But when you're a time bender like I am, you know, it's pretty easy. So, I don't need to sell limit order now cuz I don't think it's going to go up there anymore.

Uh my position size is going to stay what it is. I'm going to take one contract one of them off below the 8:30 low. Okay, what we're seeing is we want to see it run below this low, but then quickly real real fast big one candlestick kind of go go down through that. Just one single delivery of it like that. Not multiple candles. Multiple candles doesn't bode well for a run all the way down here. But a single candle down there like that, that bodes well for it to go down to this level.

We have 40 seconds to do this single run below 8:30's low. And again, never never never market replay here. We never do that. All right, so we got to the low, we didn't get below it. Okay, so we have 25 seconds still to produce that run. And also hopefully get down here and get my partial. Because we hit it. I'm locking in a little bit there. We should walk right through that low now. Come on. You only got a couple seconds to do it.

Let's get Let's get it. Let's get it. That's why I lowered the stop because it was being reluctant to do so. See how it's reacting there? So it's just touched the low that candlestick is at 652 1/2. And 651 even. So it's 1 and 1/2 handles below that candlestick, but my limit order is sitting just a little bit too too soft and below that for now. I'm I'm still confident that we're going to get it. Now we have two pools of liquidity.

The one I had annotated here and the one that's down here. So we have event horizon right there and I'm ball parking it. I'm not trying to Don't about being so precise about it. So, that's a event horizon level. So, I'd like to see it walk right through this low and accelerate down to event horizon. And if we close below that, that would be indicative of a run to 545s. All right, so we don't need it to be so prominent.

So, that's event horizon. All right, so so far the partial hasn't been afforded to me yet. I'm going to take one at event horizon. And the rest I'll leave on the book. I want to see the bodies if it has any any more retracement. I want to see it stay below consequent encroachment of that wick. Right there. I know there's a lot of stuff. Look, let me get it off of it. So, see how we jumped up there? But the bodies need to stay below that.

As long as the bodies stay below that, this should remain heavy and then work towards event horizon down here. You don't see Elliot stick a pitchfork in that, do you? Oh, but my gains. Oh, troublemaker. Oh, troublemaker starting this stuff again. Uh that's that's the new week opening gap up here. That's the new week opening gap. So, I'll show you up here. That's that. So, we ran up into consequent encroachment of yesterday's opening range gap on regular trading hours as I indicated it would likely do this morning and yesterday.

So, we want to see a big washout. Trade down there at lower. We had several things here leading up to this. We had the sell side, I'm sorry, the buy side or above these relative equal highs. Now, mind you, I'm supposed to be doing this stuff on 17 different laptops. And I'm steady talking, right? So, that buy side's been taken there. You had buy side taken here, but look where it's happening. It's at the lower quadrant of yesterday's regular trading hours opening range gap.

That's what these levels are based on, okay? So, we had our first partial here. And once we get down to event horizon, the stop loss will go just below the low of the inversion fair value gap that's highlighted over top of this suspension block, okay? We don't want to see any kind of fevered pitch to the upside. Again, no market replay, ever. You won't need that stuff, okay? So, we'll see if this thing wants to continue moving lower.

Admittedly, it is a little bit of a a difficult morning. So, if you're feeling like you had a bad day today cuz you're going to watch this video after the fact, your trade pans out or doesn't pan out. Uh but if you feel like you're arm wrestling a you know, a giant, it's it's kind of it's kind of difficult this morning. You got to know a little bit of stuff. All right, so we want to see it really build momentum below that low and not go back above this low once it takes out that low right there.

So, we're watching this. We want to see it give up the ghost below that and accelerate lower. And then stay below this low at that point. All right, so we want to Puppies are back from a walk. My wife probably forgot I'm recording. I saw a comment said, "Why don't you just get out of the kitchen?" cuz she was cooking yesterday making too much noise. Um I've actually gotten comfortable sitting in our dining room. And our dining room and kitchen area is it's pretty large.

But um sometimes when she's in here, she's very loud and it distracts me. So, she just got back walking the dogs, so if you heard all that, that's what that is. We're painting to death. All right, big big beefy candle shoot lower. That's what we're looking for. We don't want to see it come back above this low. Until we get below this with a body, I don't want to lower the stop loss down to the low of that inversion fair value gap yet cuz it could just real quick cuz the Fed's talking right now.

So, I have to keep myself in the position if I want to try to capture at least the event horizon. You get a drink, baby. Cool yourself down. I see I don't like that. And now, if I would have brought my stop loss just below the low of the inversion fair value gap. If I would have done that, then I would have I'd be feeling, you know, nervous about the likelihood of it jumping up here because the Fed is speaking. Because I know that the Fed's talking, they're going to have these wild little wiki type moves.

And we have a nice swing high right here for anyone that has been short like I am, they have a stop loss sitting right there. So, they could wick that one more time and keep the body hopefully below consequent cushion of that wick and then still be good for lower prices. But, it would make me nervous and where my stop loss is. Now, if I'm stopped out, I'm okay. I had a free look. It pays me $837 to see if I can hold on to it long enough to ride this bull, you know, well, ride this bear rather, down into even horizon and then to my target.

So, there's a whole lot of things to manage. There are certain conditions, there are certain um criteria that needs to be adhered to depending upon what the state of the market is in. Right now, we're in Fed related delivery because the Fed chairman is giving some kind of a, you know, commentary at 10:00 today and then tomorrow. So, you have to be a little bit more cautious and not not strangle your position and be okay with getting stopped out prematurely or getting stopped out and then moves in in the direction you thought.

It's okay. Those things are going to happen. That is characteristic of the environment we're in today. So, if this is your first time experiencing that and you're watching this video after your trade either failed or panned out and you are contemplating or reflecting on how difficult it probably felt while being in the position, well, you're feeling what's normal. That mean you're you're against something that is holding price action back.

Otherwise, it'd be very liquid and fluid where it would drop really quick. But, because there's tomfoolery at foot. >> [snorts] >> You got to be mindful of that. So, said in very simple terms is don't strangle your position. Give it a chance to cook. And let it prove to you one way or the other. If it goes to the low of this, I'll collapse the trade. I don't want to see it trade there. But, I don't want to put my stop loss there because it's a it's then becomes a mechanism for me to worry.

I don't want to worry. So, to mask That's what we're looking for right there. So, Come on. Now, because of what we did here, I don't want to sit with larger risk than this. So, now I'm going to get 3587 out of this if I'm wrong, which is a wonderful place to be when you're in trades. Or, I have the opportunity to ride this thing down to another partial with event horizon. And if you bear with me, I'm going to run over to the other laptops and give some commentary and draw some things on that chart, too.

And I know, I'm so bad. I'm so bad. I'm a stinker, aren't I? So, actually, I like the idea of this being three contracts. So, let's confirm that with three coming off. It may not let me cuz I think it's it's probably being filled. There you go. We got that nicely, handsomely done. So, now I want to bring the stop loss down to this candlestick right here cuz I don't want to suffer any kind of retracement. And hopefully we can get something else on this.

And we're halfway between here and here. I'm going to buy that back. One there. Very good. Very good. Managed exemplary. All righty then. See. Let's see. Let's see. Remember all this down here. It could stop. It just took out that low right there. That was enough for it to say no, I'm not going to go any lower. So, that's why I took a partial. See I did that? So, it it's not high probability that we're going to take these lows out.

It's just it's a best case scenario for me. And now I only have one contract on and I'll get stopped out at 1692 and a half if I'm wrong or I can take out another 4,000 if it can get down there. But I want to try to finesse this a little bit lower with the stop loss and lock in a little bit more if it can allow me to do so. Very very difficult morning. Very difficult. Not an easy uh thing environment to operate in. So, what I'm going to do now is because we've we reacted off of that short-term low there and we're at consequent encroachment or event horizon between an old low and an old low.

Look where the bodies are. Okay? Because it's doing this, I need to see this gap or in in relationship to the wick, we treat it as a gap. It needs to get down here and close below that. If it closes below that, then I'm going to drop the stop loss down just above here. But, I don't want to do it too quick right now because it could just whip around in here cuz this is a small little gap here. You see that? It could stab that with a wick and then then drop.

I don't want to get premature early stopped out. So, you got to give it room. And I know I know it's hard. It's very difficult to manage positions when it doesn't move real quick in your favor. But, that's trading, folks. Like you you you're going to have to adapt to that. There's no shortcuts around it, you know, and the confidence comes by continuously doing it. You know, desensitizing yourself because you've done enough times that you've seen it before.

If it fails, it's okay. That failure on one transaction or trade doesn't disrupt the efficacy of your model or your approach or your ability to trade. All right, so we're looking at this here. There, two volume balance low. It might be a little too dark. Let me change that. Okay, so we're consequent encroachment there. Uh take this line out. We don't need that. >> [snorts] >> So, again, where it traded to, it could return.

It's okay if it does. It's fine. But, if you don't hold and you don't give the trade enough room to stay on board with it, you'll never get the bigger wins. That that'll never happen for you if you're always just trying to bail on it and say, "Oh, I'm scared. I'm going to get out of the trade." Just accept the fact that there's going to be times where your trade that you're holding for lower prices or higher prices when you're bullish isn't going to just give it to you.

It's just going to deny you. And it's okay. It's okay. Making what was made here is sufficient enough. This down here is just a bonus. All right, so we're we worked back up in that old low at 8:30. Showed a little bit of uh premium sensitivity there, which is nice. We want to see it start to wilt on this candle or the very next one or my stop loss is in jeopardy. But being stopped out where we're at here I don't consider that a loss.

You know, some of you would. Oh, but you were wrong. It didn't go right down there like you thought it would. That's that's the that's the reaction you get from people that are always going on. All right, we're in jeopardy now. And They're coming. They're coming. All right, we don't want to see that become an inversion fair value gap. So, up against the likelihood of this becoming an inversion fair value gap and snapping into my stop loss.

But if it does, it's okay. See how they lows I'm sorry, the opening of these candlesticks are hanging around event horizon. We had a wick that got down real close to a target I'm at. But it went right below a short-term low. And now we're having this reluctance to go lower. Very, very difficult position to be in if you're a brand new trader and you don't have any conviction, you don't have any uh experience to to lean on.

You just got to press into this. You just got to just hold onto it and accept the fact if it stops you out, you had a wonderful trade. You just got kicked out. You didn't go to your port of you know, the destination. One of the ports that you went on if you're cruising. You didn't get to go see it. The weather did not permit it. There you go. Very simple. All right, so let's take a look at the the business here. All right, so this is what the lay of the land looks like.

We have trading in here, working lower. This became an inversion for your value gap. I traded into that right there. You see that? And then took a partial below that old low. And I took partials here. And then finally getting stopped out where you saw the stop loss at. And see how this indicates the likelihood the likelihood of it potentially having adverse price delivery on a short. When you have these wicks, this is your early morning sign.

So that way it helps you build that confidence that I'm going to see if it can do it later on and work lower. But this is also a warning sign. If you're very, very aggressive and you're very, very nimble, you can say, all right, it didn't do what I thought. I will not wait for the stop loss. I'm just going to close my position when it's down here. And if it goes lower, that's okay. So you see, it's a matter of balancing where you're at in the spectrum of your experience.

And your your experience is going to dictate how you trade your model. It's as simple as that. And it doesn't feel simple when you're going through it, but explained when you're all asking me how to build confidence, how to do this, how to do that, this is how it's done, folks. You'd simply got to be desensitized and be conditioned by going through it lots and lots of times. There's no shortcuts around it. So hopefully you found this one insightful.

Until I talk to you next time, be safe.