The Key to Hot vs Cold Market Trading transcript

what's up everyone all right well here we are Wednesday morning and my gut feeling right now is I need to walk away before I do something stupid here's the problem today we've got some decent action TVGN currently up 90% lrhc up over 200% v-x up over 100% but a lot of these stocks were Grinders they were grinding higher not going parabolic not going straight up but pulling away a little bit looking like they're going to go and then stalling out running in a resistance dropping back down coming back up look like they're going to pull away and then fading again so these sort of deeper waves where it is pushing higher over you know 5 minute 15 minute 20 30 minute time frames but trying to do breakouts on the one minute you're going to get yourself frustrated looking at the 10c it's just too choppy and so for me especially in the last week I've been so dialed in with being super aggressive on the front side of a parabolic move I've had to kind of put my you know put the breakes on a little bit and slow down because that's not the action we saw today all right so let's look at TVGN first and this is the one that I'm feeling like I need to walk away before I do something stupid so TVGN how well does it meet five criteria for you know a quality setup and by the way I will put a link for those five criteria I'll pin it to the top of the description I'll pin to the top comment and I'll link it in the description so you can download that the five criteria number one price well uh you know it fits within price between two and 10 is sort of the sweet spot right now now I generally say between 2 and 20 and sometimes I'll trade a little lower but you know it's it's okay from a price perspective but one issue with this based on the five criteria is that the float is about 14 million shares it's a little higher it's also a stock on the daily chart that uh recently made a big move which means today's relative volume is actually going to be a little bit lower because the high volume on these days pushed the total average volume over the last 30 days significantly higher so front side of the move is sorted back here and then these are continuation days and now it's pushing higher which I'm not going to say it's not impressive but the volume is a lot lower than it was previously and I just I already took trade on it and it was a close call it was a break even trade $54 of profit on 12,500 share position and it was like okay this is going to be a little harder than some of the others maybe I should step back off of this one wit similarly a break even trade I'm sitting at $ 6,371 197 on the day I hit the daily goal it's a good day I don't need to overstay my welcome but it's not such a great day that I have a big cushion where I can take a lot of risk so TVGN you know as I was seeing it coming up to the 200 I was like I don't know if that's going to work now the one trade that I did take on it was at 250 so that was right here all right so right here I got in for the break of 250 it breaks I don't buy there it retest it holds and I bought this dip at about 253 254 it pops up to 57 and then drops back down so I got out more or less break even in this area right here what I wanted to see was that it was going to micro pull pull back and push higher micro pullback and push higher so when it couldn't break 60 I was like nope I got to jump out now through this area consolidation holding the vwap curling and pulling away little bit of a bigger red candle there pushing higher another dip pushing higher finally pulling away and then stalling out as we come up to the whole dollar of three so this might go higher later but I just don't want to push my luck now we'll look at w NT and lrhc then I'll talk about vrax which is the one I did the best on so wi NT this one hit the scanners earlier this morning had news 8: a.m. so jumped in it at a dollar a share uh goes up to A110 I was holding my full position thinking I was going to add1 15120 maybe this would go up to a130 $140 drops right back down got back out basically flat so TVGN I was never really green on when wit I was green on it I didn't take the profit off the table I was looking for a bigger winner but my first trade of the day was on vrax so when I sat down this morning I sat down around quarter 7 and I looked at the scans and we really didn't have a lot we had bsgm which was our leading Gainer and it's still is but this is a stock that um basically spiked up at 4:45 a.m. no clear news on it and then retrace the whole move all right well there was no clear news on it there was news from yesterday but it wasn't even that exciting they appealed NASDAQ panel I think regarding delisting or something like that so you know I this one was a there was no trade on it so yes it was the leading Gainer 91% currently it was gapping up higher when I sat down at 7 a.m. but no trades on that TVGN that one hadn't started pulling away yet um Spirit Airlines no interest in that a couple others here but they don't fit within the price or float parameters either the price is too high or the float's too high or the price is too low we had some of those too and and I was a little worried about lower price stocks being the focus today because yesterday we had um what was it ensc or something like that so I thought well you know maybe that could be an issue we'll we'll just have to we'll wait and see so so anyways um so then all of a sudden we get this breaking news that comes out on VX at about it's like 7:15 or something like that so right here this this pops up right at 7:15 when the news comes out and I jumped in took my first trade now as soon as I saw vrax I was like okay I know this stock it was moving during the monkey pox outbreak like a month ago so if we look at the daily chart we'll recognize that this is a stock that recently made you know a pretty big move it went from a150 up to like 10 bucks okay the float about 2 million shares so 2 million share float it's $3 a share right now 275 down here is about $2 a share so my initial feeling on it was not sure I love it not sure I love it because you know the price is a little cheaper um but again sort of similar to TVGN it recently made a big move and then kind of gave it all back so at that point we were also under the 200 moving average which is around 250 but I said you know it I hesitated on a few yesterday and the day before and they ended up working well so I thought you know it's the right time of day I'll I'll give it a stab so I went ahead and took this first trade on it um and I'll show you where I got in so we had a micro pullback and I bought the micro pullback right boom here so we squeeze up to two micro pullback I got in right there at about two goes up to 210 220 240 250 280 I took some profit um on this and it hit a high of about 290 and I was also by the way I was adding as it was pulling away so starter position down here at two and and then adding into the move and then once it stalled out took my profit off the table comes down I do a dip off the low bounces back up do another dip off the low bounces back up and then I was like all right I think I'm think I'm kind of done with this for right now it ended up pulling back a little bit more so that got me up to about my daily goal up about 4,000 on the day just from that move then uh I took another trade on it let's see now let me try to remember where this was um um go back here find this trade so I had a loss on it um which I want to find for a second so it wasn't there three yeah there it was 847 so 847 I took a loss on this um yeah so it was it was right here um so right here I added on this uh for the squeeze through three and I add at about 90 um I'm looking for the squeeze through three it hits a high here of 95 and then flushes to 85 and I stopped out so I mean it's not it's not the hu the biggest range but on this one I was trading with larger share size so stopped out of that lost about $2,000 on that drop and went from up 4700 on the day to 2700 on the day and I was like all right you know that's that cuts my day in half let's be careful it comes back up I got back in it right here as we break over three we got squeeze up to 310 I was hoping it would pull away but and again like it it goes up to 311 and then starts to drop I get out goes back under three comes back up back down back up I get back in at 320 it goes up here for a second but then like that's it so it just you know it's like it it did push a little higher but it wasn't super clean so it got crowded uh so anyways I ended up making back the little bit I lost on it and finishing up 6200 but it it's harder to trade these Grinders you you expect and look for a nice clean breakout and then you know you get let down so that was vrax and then lrhc so this one um interesting price action earlier this morning when it was first uh you know coming to my attention I was like well it's 70 cents a share I don't care drops back down so basically does a full round trip then all of a sudden boom spikes up from 70 to A110 which is a pretty massive Spike but it gives it all back and then at the open so I was like this is I can't trade this then at the open it halts up it opens higher dips and rips goes into a second halt opens pushes a little higher halts down opens coming back up and now we're under the halt up level but here's the problem this stock yesterday closed below 75 cents a share so what that means is this stock will halt every 15 cents the halt bands are 30 cents apart so $150 to1 80 the problem here with this is that I was watching this on resumption from uh this second halt here and when it resumed it dipped down to about a133 a133 was the halt down level and I was like I don't want to be in a halt down after two halts up because usually they're going to open lower and then it rips to the halt up level and so you know you've only got really 30 cents of range within a sort of rolling five minute period and that's it so if you want to make five grand on it you need to be buying 25,000 shares and capturing you know half of that move or so it's just that's the only way or you know buying and holding and just letting it work but that's a lot easier said than done especially when you're at risk of getting C Hall down so I was disappointed in a way that this went up as much as it did and I wasn't able to capitalize on it but I just felt that I couldn't manage the risk now someone asked me Ross why don't you just take smaller size and I said well if taking smaller size doesn't change the risk to reward ratio on the trade cuz here was the problem if I got in at let's say 65 and the halt up is at 68 cents I'm only going to be up three cents going into the halt what if it halts and then it shows a lower resumption someone puts out a big sell order during the Hal what if it shows a flat resumption then it may on resumption dip down and I'm not even at a profit cushion and on the flip side if I buy on a dip when it pulls back down to about $135 if someone dumps 100,000 shares it's going to send it right to the Hal down level it's going to be pinned to the halt down I won't be able to get out I'm going to be trapped so that's the problem with trading these is you can get trapped either buying the dip you get trapped down or you buy high and you just don't have a lot of room before you're in a halt and that can work in your favor but it not always especially when they don't have enough room to really gain momentum before the halt so right now lrhc is at the halt down which is 52 so like if you bought this dip here you know it's like uhoh ah shoot this looks like it's actually going to Halt so now you're in a halt down right it's not halted yet but it's heavy on the ask so it's going to Halt so now it's halted down it's showing a 5cent lower resumption at 147 now 145 and you know that price could move around 146 147 maybe it'll open more or less flat 148 who knows maybe it'll open at 155 it'll open higher but in any case you don't like to be going the wrong direction of the halt where you're buying and the halt is going down so I just felt that I couldn't manage my risk on it and um you know this week has been kind of interesting because Monday and Tuesday were both you know really pretty solid days for me uh strong days uh I can pull up my metrics here we can just look at them for a second so I'm sitting in fantastic shape on the month right now after today 280,000 in gross profit on the month that makes this my best month of the year I'm already up 42,000 on the on the week before today last week was my best week of the entire year with 203,000 so if I switch to a year toate view we can do a year-to date uh detailed so sitting it um 1,78 th000 year-to dat average daily gain 5,000 a day daily goals 5,000 so that's pretty solid average winner $645 average loser 480 a positive profit to loss ratio let's look just for in brief at last year last year was it was a low point for me my profit loss ratio was negative I had bigger losers not a lot of them but just in general bigger losers I only did 67% accuracy and gross profit was $389,000 so I've nearly by the end of the year I will hopefully have tripled what I did last year not just doubled but tripled and that I you know I'll I'll say that um last year was tough because you know I I had had my high water mark was in um uh 2020 that was the year I did $5 million was crazy and that was in in gross profit and then 2021 was a little lower it was 4 point something million still a good year 2022 was a million so it's quite a bit lower but you know can't complain a million dollars and I didn't know where I was going to base out because if we go back to 2019 2019 was about $330,000 2018 was $500,000 so you know you kind of look like 2017 2018 2019 2020 boom crazy 2021 just still super solid 2022 a lot lower 2023 389,000 I was like okay so basically I was making less each year for three consecutive years 2021 was less than the year before so was 2 so was 2023 and I was like where are we going to bottom out here you know this is like I don't know I mean I'm not going to say I'm not grateful to still be you know clearing six figures this is life is is good but where are we going to where where's the low and um what was really interesting this year was um all of a sudden in February you know we had a really good month so February was the best month I'd had um in over a year uh better than any month that I can recall in 2023 uh so that was February with 131,000 in profit so just like that with January and February I was at 160 on the year and I was you know practically you know 40% of the way towards you know making what I made in 20203 in two months there and then March was slow April May a little slow and then July out of nowhere again huge momentum which continued through August and September wasn't terrible and now October didn't expect it but drug going up 2,000% in one day that sparked around the momentum that then the next day I'm up $100,000 and I was starting to ask myself whether or not I'd be able to have you know $100,000 days like I'd had in the past you know the last $100,000 day I'd had was probably in 20 you know 2021 I don't remember exactly um when it was but um let's see I mean maybe it was in 2022 I don't remember exactly but um my best month in 2022 was August with 186,000 so we could just check August for a second so August um man I mean August was um I didn't have a single day more than 28,000 and I still had 186,000 total profit so it actually wouldn't surprise me if um 2022 I didn't have any days where I was up over 100 grand um you know still was able to make a million dollars without those types of days days but yeah looks like the biggest day of the year was in the 30s um oh there's there's one too 68,0 52,000 in February so those were some nice days but um but a couple bigger red days the beginning of the year which was tough so anyways um so yeah my last um $100,000 day would have been in 2021 and maybe it was December I don't know we'll see so no not December what about November um almost November but not quite that was 8 um it was in um October interesting is that a coincidence it the same month I don't know so October uh 26 2022 uh sorry 2021 was um my last $100,000 day so you know two three years three years wow it's hard hard to believe so I didn't have I mean not that it really matters but um didn't have one in 2022 didn't have one in 2023 so that was one that was two that was three years ago so it's been three years since I had $100,000 day and you know that kind of made me wonder if I started to wonder if maybe I wouldn't be able to have that kind of day again I was like was that just like you know am I never is was that my high water mark and I thought a lot about this I thought about you know almost like thinking about like you know what it like what it must be to be like a a football player and you're like my I'm I'm over my Peak you know I I didn't know it at the time but like I'm past my Peak and now I'm On The Backs side and I'll never get back to there and I don't know that we will anytime soon get back to the type of volatility we had during the pandemic I think that type of volatility is more akin to what we had during the.com bubble which although I was in school and was participating in it through a school project I wasn't trading it with real money like I am today so I didn't capitalize on a dot bubble so then 20 years later we have the co pandemic so it might be another 20 years before we have another you know big big event I mean I don't again look I'm up $100,000 you know just last week on Wednesday I'm up almost 300 on the month here of October so you know this is a really great month but it's not in the right now I would need you know 10 more months of this to be up 3 million right so it would need to continue at this level and even today was clearly a little slower but I started to think about that a lot a lot I was like you know what does that kind of mean that you know if I am kind of on the backside and I I sort of thought well you know I I think that if we got the right opportunities in the market I don't see any reason I'm not capable of having a 50,000 75,000 $100,000 day it's just that we haven't had stocks that have made those kinds of moves even the big moves we had during 2022 and 2023 didn't have the liquidity or they were Grinders they were slower movers they just weren't the type of stock that I would really crush and that I did well on during the pandemic so what I sort of said to myself was that realistically for me to have what's the anatomy of a $100,000 day the anatomy of $100,000 a day well let's say if a stock is really volatile maybe I'm taking 10,000 15,000 shares probably not going a lot heavier than that typically so let's say I do 15,000 shares and let's say it goes up $2 a share how much am I going to make 30 Grand at the most if I capture the whole move which you never do so figure whatever the move is maybe I'll capture half of it so if a stock goes up at $2 a share and I'm trading 15,000 shares I'll probably make a dollar a share that's 15 grand so now you need to get $4 a share for me to be up 30,000 right so now it's like $6 $8 for me to be up $60,000 70,000 $9 $10 now you're getting to$ 80,000 100,000 on the day so that's kind of the the size move I feel like I need and how many times last year and in the year before did we get within the span of like 30 minutes you know a 10-point squeeze it happened but a number of the ones that it happened on were stocks like HKD where it went up that much but on like 3,000 shares of volume so you couldn't really I mean yes it went up but you couldn't have bought 15,000 shares and traded it it just wasn't liquid the spreads were too big um or you had ones that you know the move just happened at an odd time of day and luck of the draw you know you missed it and maybe we only had a few of those in the year and if you missed all three of them because they were all at a strange time of the day or 4:00 a.m. or 8:00 p.m. or whatever it is you missed it and it's like all right so I just sort of realized my bread and butter is just showing up every day 7: a.m. to 10: a.m. hitting some base hits locking up some profit not overstay my welcome and that's what I've been doing that's what I've been grinding on for the last three years and making decent money at it but this year all of a sudden we've started to see some bigger moves and we saw them in February we saw them again in July and August I did well on them I had two back-to-back 50 $40,000 days in July which was great and then all of a sudden here in October with drug going up 2,000% that ignited some fomo in me and I think it ignited fomo in the market because all of a sudden we see back toback you know 3 days in a row stocks going up over 1,000% and like that I'm able to capitalize on that type of volatility so you know we had drug we had sober we had atnf we had you know we've had a number of stocks that have gone up multiple dollars a share and that's the type of move that I need to really do well so today did we get a fivepoint move no did we get a 10o move no did we even get a two-point move no we didn't the biggest move that we got today really well in terms of percentages it would be lrhc which went from 80 cents to $180 to make 100,000 on that you would needed 100,000 shares or more so like of course that's not going to happen that's that's way too much risk for me I'm not going to do that um then you know vrax look I mean you know we got a dollar a share on it from $2 to $3 not even right and then it goes back to two and then goes back to 350 a dollar a share all right you know I'm up six grand on it could I have made more maybe TVGN I mean it's up 70% but in terms of dollars per share it's from $180 to 280 it's a dollar a share so you know it just so happens that this was a grinder and it was harder to trade vrax was a little easier at the beginning and then got more difficult so um you know today we didn't have any stocks that really gave those big big moves that allowed me to size up H yzn yesterday this one um I did better on hzn so let's look at how big that move was this one went from $2 to $4 that was a two-point move and I was able to be up about I think on the total day on it like 18,000 so you know but that was better that was a bigger move it pulled back and then we got a nice bounce we had more range we just Unfortunately today um didn't have one that really gave us that range so why not well I think the issue today was that the stocks that had breaking news didn't have that right combination of the five criteria for stock selection to be really what I would consider a quality or have parabolic potential just wasn't a perfect combination of price float and news um daily setups not ideal so you know we got some action I'm happy to hit the you know a couple base hits and lock up my daily goal here but there wasn't anything I could really sink my teeth into and get super excited on and you know look it's 10:30 a.m. so there it may be that TVGN goes now from you know 350 to you know 3 to 350 to 4 something like that uh it's possible but it's so ially traded there's so many huge Sellers and you're going to have so many jack knife moves that to me it's just not worth it so anyways I'm I'm not going back for that one um you know I'm I'm happy with where I sit today I you know I mean like I wish I could have done a little bit better I wish we' had some more opportunities but I don't want to lose sight of the fact that this is a really solid day and it would be very easy to give it back if I get careless and start overtrading so that's why I wanted to record my recap real quick and then shut every down and not look at charts again until tomorrow that for me is is my best technique for fighting fomo is just to shut it all down and boom just like that out of sight out of mind right I don't want to look any closer so if you want to learn more about my five criteria for stock selection I'll put a link down in the comments pin it to the top comment and Link it in the description and I hope to see you guys join us over at Warrior trading you could do a twoe trial that link will also be posted and I'll remind you as always that trading is risky my results aren't typical so please manage your risk take it slow and I'll see you back here I'll be live streaming for members at Warrior trading tomorrow at around 7:00 a.m. okay see you in the morning