NQ Trade Review Jackson Hole Symposium Day #2 transcript

Hey folks, welcome back. We are looking at the NASDAQ. Okay, and we're in day two of Jackson Hole Symposium. So, I'm going to get this bit of business out of the way because I know some of you, and the list is growing smaller every day. There's the executions. Okay, you see that? Look Look real closely. Okay, look over here, you'll see yesterday's trade. And you'll see today's trade. Okay? You see that? Look at that.

You can't do that market replay. Look up here. When that's active, market replay executions don't show. So, all right. So, um obviously, we are in a mad week here. Crazy. I want you to consider what this range was between 7:00 in the morning. There. Are you Are you ready for the weekend? I know I am. I know I am. That's right. That's right. So, if we look at the highest high, which is this one right here. Don't look at that.

That's cheating. It's outside the range. That's outside the range and you know it. Okay? There's no form fitting here, Jack. And the lowest low is right there. Okay, so we're going to check ourselves. That's Got to take that off. The candlesticks low comes in at 29,597 1/2. And again, the same price for the low in this candlestick. And the highest high is that right there. 665 even. So, if we grab our fib and anchor it to that range.

Okay, you see that? What we have there is the actual low of that first initial run. See that? So, I took the risk of trading it knowing that again we would likely see seeking and destroying conditions, which is buy taking out the previous buy side, sell side. Sell side. Buy side. The chair. Disruption. Lower. Take out that low. And then trade down into Thursday's 9:55 a.m. Eastern time discount wick. And it's the upper half of that wick.

I just talked about it in the previous video. And they used it again here. Look where the body stopped. >> [laughter] >> Come on, right? Buying and selling pressure, right? Come on now. You know it's funny. The wick goes down in the lower half of it. Okay, but it's it's done. Now, I was intrigued by watching it go down there, but I did enough for this week and I've been messing around in the kitchen getting thing getting things ready and prepping for this weekend's meals.

So, uh it obviously took off. I I dropped into Lumi Traders live stream and I again reminded him cuz the video probably wasn't going to be watched by then. The one prior to this one where I was outlining that 29,757 and a quarter uh that would be the next upside draw. And if it can get beyond that, then we would look for it to try to get into eight in the 830s. Uh so far today it found its way up into 808. That's a birthday number for me.

So that right there is the the wizard tree that I used to time that entry. And we'll go in here and give it a little little bit more detail here, okay? So this inefficiency, I'll counsel you to go and look at the previous video prior to this one and this will make sense to you, okay? Here at 9:30 we have a displacement lower, so that's a sell side imbalance buy side inefficiency. I'm not treating that as first presented fair value gap.

It's just simply it's a inefficiency that allows me to grade that as a potential inversion fair value gap if it can qualify it. So this same here inversion fair value gap. Once we trade down into the low projection with the fib, so it hits it there, goes like one or two ticks below it, that's fine. And right in here, I know that it's likely cuz it's already hit that level. I know it's likely to go back up and take out the buy side, trade up into the inefficiency up here.

And I'm aiming for those relative equal highs. Which we'll look at. There. >> So, we're looking for So, moving this out a little bit, widening it out. We have price send it up into that old gap that we were talking about yesterday and we were talking about this morning in the review for the trade. Again, if you're ever stuck on what these levels are, go and watch the previous recording. I post them in order. So, we have an inversion fair value gap here, trades above it, qualifies it here, comes down in, rallies up.

The bodies are supported with the half of this inversion fair value gap. It rallies up, trades up into the inefficiency. I'm exiting on the way out. And then one more here, I'm just dropping cuz I know the Fed chair speech is getting ready to be posted at 10:00 in the morning, so I'm not worrying about trying to be perfect. I just want to make sure I I fund the trade and then I raise the stop loss up and it got stopped right there.

They pulled it back. Bodies are not showing the midpoint level again. That's like I mentioned in the previous video. Then they rally it one more time here at 10:00. The Fed chairman Joe Bones sends it lower. Reclaimed bearish fair value gap right here. Trades through here again and then drops all the way down to Thursday's 9:55 a.m. Eastern time discount wick and still have a half of that. So, find that weak off and stop telling me to stop talking about that stuff.

This is my channel, I'll do whatever I want to do. If you don't like it, go follow someone else, okay? I'm not trying to be rude or condescending to anyone, but I have to do this. I have to do these things because there is a concerted effort to try to dilute and misinform the the industry about what I did and didn't codify, create, and author. So, the bodies are showing that respect there as well. And then it rallies back up.

Populates the same green inefficiency. That's going to cross from order block change in the state of delivery. Beautiful. Rips higher. Trades all the way up, takes out the 757 level I mentioned it was likely to happen. If you look at the last minute of the previous video, uh you'll hear me explain where it's likely to draw up and we'll see if it's going to get there and if there's any follow-through. 8:31 would be the next go-to, but it ran out of steam here.

And it rolled over and here's where we're at right now. So, again, um I avoided the TGI up to date simply because of the Jackson Hole Symposium. And I think that um not not not too bad. Uh this this reaction here, I was hoping it would build on that momentum, but I ran the risk of having the 10:00 clock Fed chair having an impact on it, which obviously you know, it's going to have an impact, but I was hoping that the impact would have been the push up into you know, these levels and this level here.

But this is certainly nothing uh nothing terribly wrong with that except for in the the trade execution. I couldn't record the beginning of the trade. Like I couldn't do it and then you can see my entries are inside that inversion fair value. You see it? Right there. Look right here. Right there. Boop. And boop. All right. So, because I use Camtasia and when you're rendering a video, it means it's making the video that you recorded raw, you're you're turning it into a format that it can be uploaded to YouTube or viewed by other people with media players.

And sometimes when a when the video is like an hour long, cuz I use high settings, I want the video to be as clean as I can get it, it can be higher, but it's going to be larger files and longer process time. When I'm doing that, I can't record another one. It doesn't permit me to use the application to record another one, which to me is kind of stupid, but you know, whatever. Um but once the rendering was done, I didn't get a chance to upload the video that prior may prior to this one, I just went right into screenshotting the last or recording around that screenshotting, recording the last bit of business here and then you didn't you must have get stopped out and I was proving that it was the same account and it was not market replay and that's that.

So, I think all in all this week was uh it should have been I'll say it this way. It should have been a positive entry to your experience. You should have learned a great deal at least for those respect for Jackson Hole Symposium and its effect on the marketplace even prior to its first day. Whenever that week comes up, know on your economic calendar when that happens. And then prepare for a lot of volatility, which is wonderful, but there's also a great deal of uh you know, second runs.

Like wherever you think a run's going to start, they'll come back and take that low out or that high out. And you saw it back to back today. Low, higher high, lows taken, higher high taken, all the way back down, take out the lows there, rallied all the way up. That That right there that is the seek and destroy model. That's it. That's the profile. Knowing when to anticipate it is wonderful. It's important, but being able to navigate it and trade it I I don't want to push that on you as a as a means of knowing how good you're getting as a trader.

Don't Don't do that. But obviously you go in and start looking for things that would warrant trades or or kind of like negate the idea of a trade panning out and spend a whole lot of time this weekend going through day one and day two of how price acted. And it's just in my opinion, it's just one of those wonderful researches that you can dig into and prove to yourself that these are not the weeks that you want to over-leverage cuz you can hurt yourself very, very badly.

And I was doing my best to try to throw off the market and throw off impulsive students that want to trade today. By me posting saying I wasn't going to trade today um and if you do and you choose to do so, be careful. Whenever I say be careful, that's like the biggest banner sign, like a neon sign flashing in your face. It's going to be volatile. And unless you're very, very skilled and and you have experience and you're not risking a whole lot then and only then should you be participating in.

But you know a lot of you are brand new. And I don't want to see you get there and hurt yourself, blow your account, you draw your you draw your funds down, or discourage you. It's the worst feeling in the world to hurt yourself on a Friday. Even worse if you had a great week up until then, and then you just completely discombobulate yourself and remove the profitability because of one day. It's just You know, there's a lot of people that make jokes about, you know, ICT teaches never trade on Mondays.

That's not true. That's not true. Um my advanced students, the ones that have been veteran with me for a while, they know that we can trade every day. Every single day. That means every report day, even in high resistance liquidity run conditions, we can trade in all that stuff. We can. But because you're coming here to learn from me, it would be disingenuous for me as a mentor to tell you every day is a trading day, and don't worry about it, get in there and get your feet wet.

And leaving it to your own devices, you're going to be what? Hurt yourself. We trade every single Monday of non-farm payroll week. And if your model speaks to you and you have your experience, every other model, I mean, every other Monday can be traded. Fridays are days where you can, if you've been very profitable, take a 3-day weekend. Who says you have to trade? Like who says you have to? Unfortunately, what happens is there's people that are in the media, you know, their their personalities on the internet and they're they're live streamers or they do signals or whatnot.

They feel this I guess need to do it because they're expected to. Instead of saying, you know what? I had a good week, and I'm going to make it even better by not trading on a Friday, because I'm already profitable, and I'm going to close the week out and go into a nice 3-day weekend and enjoy it. Really enjoy it. And what that communicates to your audience is that you're in control of yourself. You're in control of yourself.

You're not in a rush to chase more money. Uh you're not a newb where you're literally going out there and just impulsively you know clicking buttons and trying to chase every little thing. It just communicates maturity as a trader and as an analyst. And I tried to do my best to do that and kind of like create that cultivate that mentality in all of my students. It's not easily transferred. The only thing I learned is by experience.

That's the only thing that teaches you that. That means making and losing lots of money over time. And then hopefully paying attention and taking notes and seeing what you did wrong. And not pretend not pretending and putting blinders on saying that that didn't happen and I'm going to ignore it. But dig into it and say okay, what did I do wrong here? And how can I improve on it? Notice the difference between that or man, I wish I would never traded today.

This sucks. I can't stand this. Um I'm a loser. I'm a I I I'm never going to make this stuff work for me. I'm going to do this until I blow the account probably and there's going to be no reason for me to continue. Why do I even bother doing this? It's all toxicity and like negativity. And while you want to do that, think about why you're doing it. You're doing what you think other people would say to you. But they haven't said it to you.

Because you haven't shared what you've done. Your results are your your results are private. You don't need to have anybody see what you're doing. You owe no one that. No one. But for some of you guys out there that want to do that, you know, you're taking on a greater degree of difficulty and managing the dredge of society as the audience who isn't going to be satisfied with that either. So, where you where are you really winning in that?

You're not. You're adding more stress and you're making things a much more tedious task. Like you're answering to taskmasters. That means you're not the influencer, you're the influenced. If other people are making you perform in such a way where you have to show everything that they ask for, you have to do everything they tell you to do, you jump through every hoop. And that includes trading on Mondays or Fridays. If you feel like you've done well enough for the week, even on a Monday, who says you have to trade the rest of the week?

You don't. You do not need to do that. But the perception is is, well, I'm not going to be viewed as a trader unless I do it. And I don't want to be talked about like ICT guys do, or ICT himself. I couldn't take that. That's Man, I wouldn't be able to stay on the internet. I'd have to delete my social media. That That's not I don't do that. I beg it. >> [laughter] >> Come on. Come over here and talk something. Cuz I'm going to bring your audience right to center stage audience level, and they're going to see me do things that those people talking about me can't do.

And that's how That's how I grew to 2.3 million. That's how I did it. Letting people have enough in their mouth to talk about me, advertise for me. Cuz you can't get a better draw on a crowd until you get something negative in their mouth. You get somebody something to chew on like bubble gum, it's bad. Oh man, that's going to be easy pickings to get a audience. And then when they come here, they see me doing things.

And it may take a little bit of little bit of time to capture their imagination about how this tends to keep happening over and over and over again using the same logic that I created. And you learn to start trusting what it is I'm teaching. And the best thing you can do is remove the person, Michael, an ICT character. Take that out of the equation. That's just to get people coming here. That's it. That's all it is. But once you're here, you're getting the real person, me.

Like this this is me talking to you. And this is how I talk to my kids. This is how I teach them. I'm not talking to them as ICT. You know, I toy with my wife but you know, I pretend to be ICT once in a while. You know, >> [laughter] >> when she gets back from the house shopping, I'm going to do the same thing, Mick Jaggering around the house and it's it's just to toy with her. She's not impressed by it and it's the I have a wife and a husband relationship just like most of all of you, okay?

So, the bottom line is this. Respect Jackson Hole Symposium Week. Anticipate it. Predict that there's going to be great deal of volatility that week. And if you're brand new or if you don't trust yourself, don't trade with real money. Just stay in tape reading. Don't even demo. Because if you demo and you even do worse there, you're going to take that as well, if I were to trade with real money, that would have hurt me.

And then that's going to be in your brain and that's now scar tissue. But you definitely want to be studying price action. You definitely want to be watching price action live. You want to see it live. Okay? So, I mentioned we were bearish on NQ until we get to a certain degree of uh price movement on the daily chart. And here we're seeing a really nice drop here. Look at Look at all the volatility today. I mean, look at that.

I I I've seen some people posting online and and they got hurt. I've watched a couple other live streamers that were struggling and seemed very frustrated. Um That's what this week will do to you. And I want you to learn that. Okay, I want you to learn from it. Don't make it a repeat occurrence. Don't make it a standard practice when this week comes around and it's Jackson Hole Symposium. These people have lots of money.

And they are pushing agendas that you're never going to vote on. You're never going to vote on these things. But yet they they shove them down our throats. They spray them in our skies. Inject them in our foods. And tell us that we have to have these medications. And the bottom line is is you know, these people are evil. And they're going to influence the market because of what they say. Because of what they say. And now you know the inside track to it.

Just predict that there's going to be a whole lot of movement that may or may not make sense to you. You may not be able to see the things I've outlined today or this week. Don't chalk that up as failure. This is a highly manipulated week. I didn't do it perfectly here. And while I was showing to the left side that it was the same account in the recording, I didn't get out. >> [laughter] >> Right here where I I saw it was failing again.

It was failing right there at that midpoint. And I didn't do it. I could have at least rolled the stop up higher. I could have put it up in right below the consequent encroachment of this longest wick here. Could have done that. Could have got stopped out at a better price. No problem. Next. So, I want you to have a very pleasant weekend. I want you to enjoy the weekend. I want you to relax. And next week we're going to do a little bit slower pace.

I'm not going to be doing any executions. I'm not going to be trading and and showing you executions and stuff like that. I'm not doing that cuz I need all my time to be spent on the lectures that I'm going to be making for my son Cayden. I'm going to make them available to you as part of the normal daily content that I put out. But I really want you to buckle down and really observe what it is I'm teaching in these lectures.

Okay, there's going to be at least one a day. But if something happens that I get inspired to include something, you know, there may be a second one once or twice, you next week. But every day next week there'll be there will be a video on logging what you're supposed to be observing in price action. What do you screenshot and annotate? What is it that you're trying to reinforce in your memory? What What's the most important things in price?

That's the That's the thing you start with. That's not entering trades. That's not knowing where the stop loss to goes. That's not knowing where the market's going to draw to. It's a matter of collecting information, data, to then over a period of time see that these things repeat. There's a repeating phenomenon here. And by doing that, what it does is it helps you fortify courage, which is you know, you're not going to get it until you form it.

And the only way you can believe in it is by seeing it over and over and over again by repetition. And you know, we'll talk about how these pieces of data will flesh out into back testing. Okay, so it'll eventually get to this is what you're logging every day, this is what you're looking for, and then this is what you do with that information and go forward as a back back at like a back testing and campaign or endeavor.

Once that occurs for a couple months, I know, it's still not trading, not even with a demo. Then you'll go into demo trading. Minimum. Minimum, 3 months. If you're really really good, 2 months of just demo or paper trading with the observations that you made, the constructive model that you arrive at on your own, and then you walk forward with it with tape reading and demo trading. And then if you get to the point where you are no longer excited or scared about the outcome, it's just you know what you're looking for, you're measuring every execution like a science lab experiment.

That That's when you're probably going to be ready to trade where you know you're not impulsively chasing money. You just know that this stuff tends to repeat so many times as long as I focus on that process and not the money and don't over leverage use a small amount of leverage. You'll know when you want to transition into live funds. I never tell anybody when to do that. I don't actually tell people to do anything with real money.

I talk about price action. And the distinction there is important because I am not I'm not licensed to give you trading advice. But I'm free to tell you what I think these candlesticks are going to do, how they're going to behave and populate your chart. I can give you an opinion about that, but that's not investment advice. That's me observing what these lines are likely to do. And you get the privilege and honor to sit back and watch and how often I am getting it right or wrong.

So hopefully you found something insightful this week. Hopefully you learned something. And hopefully it was inspiring to you. And enjoy your weekend until I talk to you then or the weekend if I can. Be safe.