I Did NOT Expect This... transcript

what's up everyone all right well here we are it's Thursday morning I am currently sitting in the green up $ 21,780 51 that's four times daily goal this shirt has paid for itself it's a lucky shirt it wasn't cheap but it's been worth it I wear it now every single day I don't know how long I'm going to keep it up but anyways uh we do have something a little funny going on though right now we have two stocks both up one of them's 138% the other's 19% no news what is the deal with that so typically what I like doing is trading stocks ah have breaking news if yesterday you watched my recap you may have heard me talk about my five pillars of stock selection I'll put the link I'll P to the top of the comments here and in the description for this video too so you can download it you can print it out and you can use that as a resource every single day as you're trying to evaluate what you're looking at and what has the potential to make a big move these five pillars for me are essentially they they create a profile for the type of stock that can make the biggest intraday move and we're talking about not just 20 30% but 50 100 200 300 400 500% or 2,000% like we had last week on drug but one of the things I like to see generally as one of those pillars is that the stock has a news Catalyst now there are a couple of exceptions and I think we have some of them happening right here today so one of the exceptions is on efsh when you have what's called a technical setup it's purely Technical and this is a dead cap bounce now forgive the the the language I know felines that put the ear muffs on this is some rough language here uh but you know this the this is the market it's you know you there's just the way it is so we had this crazy move from 150 all the way up to nearly $10 sold off came down and now we're bouncing off the low they call it a dead cat bounce because if you throw a cat out a 100 story window let's imagine this is 100 story window it's probably not going to survive but it will bounce a little bit right I mean just think the about the physics of it think about the physics so here we we boun we go all the way to 150 and then we're bouncing off the low now is this still dead probably it's it's not you know is it going to go back to here probably not there's no actual news cataly to support the move there's no news it's just bouncing it's a technical bounce but here's the thing because this is a stock that went from $2 to $10 in one day and this might have also been on no news actually for what it's worth um now I'm not I don't don't quote me on that I have to double check it we'll double check in a second that was on October 18th because it did that Traders look at this as it's the type of stock that has the potential to go up 51 100% easily in one day so if if we go back to the 18th no so there was no news on that day either on efsh so it went up this much on no news which is really the effect of it's a lower float stock it's had recent reverse splits and you know it's basically well coming into this pop that happened last week or whatever it was on Monday it was basically at all-time lows so in a hot frothy Market a stock at all-time lows with a float of less than a million shares when it start to catch a bid suddenly people are jumping in it and off it goes and it's in a really hot market now people are trading it just because it's moving so I didn't end up trading this for two reasons number one primary reason was because I was already up $1,780 coming into the open and if you recall last week every day last week well four out of the five days last week I gave back profit after 9:30 opening bell as much as 20% on one of those days so last week I mean you know if we're going to be real it it wasn't so great my metrics weren't very good when we looked at it past 9:30 I'll I'll just show you right here so let's see so we'll do calendar here for a second so calendar for October currently sitting at $275,000 on the year I should tell you my results are not typical I've been doing this for a long time so I don't want you to assume that this is a typical result this is actually my best month of the year so even for me this is not typical um so I haven't imported yesterday's trades or today's yet so it's actually going to be up over 300 but let's look just at last week uh or you know let's just look at month to dat that's just easy so um this month all right so this month right here we'll look at detailed and we're going to look at days and times and what you're going to see is that I've been doing really well pre-market and then boom all of a sudden 10:00 a.m. to 11 12 not doing well got a couple nice trades later but but nothing significant So based done that and this was especially bad last week because just last week I had um one day where I had some pretty substantial losses past the opening bell um now actually where is that yeah it was right there $24,000 yikes now I still had a good week last week with 200 Grand but would have been better without that so because of that I told myself this week to be more disciplined and so I was kind of walking around my office here I was getting stuff organized I was just tidying up some cables and just sort of puttering around I had the the audio alerts on um and you know what I just I didn't come over to check to see what was triggering the audio alert and next thing I know um efsh was halted up uh let's see where was it halted up um by the time I sat down it was halted up right here 255 and I thought well so I clearly missed this pullback right here which was a pretty nice one so since I missed that I don't know you you know I'm not sure if I'm going to and it's going up with no news I don't know so it ends up going up to 320 it drops down to 280 pops back up to 340 then it pulls away halts up opens dips and I was like I'm not going to buy it after the second halt because it has no news rips up to four now goes up to a high of 460 and now we're kind of pulling back a little bit so I said to myself I better record this recap right now so I don't get fomo and end up buying the top cuz that's something that I've done before so this was efsh it peaked at let's see what was the highest percent on the day um 182% on no news holy smokes that's that's quite something all right so big move no news is it realistic to buy this dip and expect it's going to go higher probably not you've got a big red candle shooting star topping tail high volume red it's a reversal now shorts could get trapped and next thing you know Longs buy it up because you know the market it's hot uh so it could happen but it doesn't really make a lot of sense to for that to happen so then the second stock is TC TC went up also over 100% and this one's so funny because at the open this thing halts up on super light volume it halts up right here on 72,000 shares at A180 it opens and squeezes into a second halt at 280 it opens and goes up to 4 it then drops from four back down to three and then rips back up to a high of 429 before now coming back down to 321 again pay attention to that macd when you get that macd crossover time to step back efsh probably also has a macd crossover happening let's check so efsh crossovers right here now naturally you should have get gotten out of this a lot sooner than waiting for the crossover but once the crossover happens it's a it's an indicator to probably leave it alone zcar you know another one with a lower float now that you've seen efsh squeeze up would zc car go as well again without a news Catalyst probably not but on a day like today when the Market's a little frothy maybe so now let's talk about the trades that I took today all right so we're going to go back to um first trade of the day and that was on saag this was an IPO from yesterday sag IPOs and squeezes up yesterday from let's see opened at about six sells off pops up whatever and then into the close squeezes up to 8 pre-market 4:00 a.m. punches up to 860 I got in right here on this break of vwap that was first trade this down here was second trade I did not take the third trade because after this I was like you know what we're seeing a lot of topping tailes I think I'm not going to overstay my welcome so thank goodness I didn't take that trade because that one reversed but I got a nice trade here at 7 A.M and another another nice trade right here and what was interesting about this one was when it started to squeeze up right here coming into the open I I saw it it was on my scanners as a gapper so I thought okay you know it's a gapper doesn't have fresh news exactly it's a it's a IPO so usually that you're not going to have news on day two but again that's a technical setup so that is an exception I'm okay with that um the float I checked it it's pretty low so no issue there you know technically it's just a it's a technical setup so I was fine with that um but the problem was it was showing three uh sorry 750 on the ask and the bid was showing gosh what was the bid um it was $7 so we had this kind of big spread I'll have to pull up my whiteboard here let me just refresh this camera so we had this larger spread on it and when you have a big spread like that usually I feel like I'm not going to be able to manage my risk I'm just like you know if I get in at 750 I'm instantly going to be dollar a share and then all of a sudden it's 730 by 750 and then 740 by 750 and then it was actually TI 747 by 750 so someone was bidding Higher and Higher and so I said you know what I'm going to get in I got in at 750 it goes to 775 goes to 8 goes up to 825 goes up to 850 I waited for the spreads to tighten up before getting in the spreads tightening up indicated to me that someone out there was wanting to buy shares of the stock so anyway so got to trade on on that that was my first trade on S AG that was just after the top of the hour 7: a.m. and then I got another trade um a little bit later as it was curling for the break of vwap I'm just reconnecting this camera sometimes it um disconnects so those are my two trades on S AG um at the open when it popped up there I was wondering if it was going to retest nine but unfortunately with these topping Tails um it's just not quite enough strength okay so so that's um s that was my first trade of the day second trade of the day second stock I traded after s AG was let's see TVGN that's right so TVGN okay so on this one um yesterday this broke the 200 moving average it squeezed up to three on 150 million about 100 well let's see exactly 135 million shares of volume so this morning when it started popping up right here I was like okay I'm going to take a trade on this now that I already had a cushion on the day I bought 15,000 shares First Trade added to 20,000 it squeezes up from 330 up to 340 350 boom I'm taking the profit off the table locked up about $2,500 scaling out of that trade I was pleased with that I thought that's that's not bad so that was right here U getting in on uh let's see we had a micro pullback somewhere right in here and then we got that squeezed up to 340 I was hoping that we would go higher but that was it so got that one trade on TVGN sold off at the open so now I'm up a little over right around 10,000 on the day so then the next trade after that was Zena Z I'm up about 1100 on Zena not a lot to show for this one the the interesting thing with this was um I kind of botched my first trade on it I got in a little too late um it pops up right here as you can see to 270 it dips down uh to 250 I got in at 250 at the half dollar but I missed you know getting in like down here that would have been the nicest candle so we end up hitting a high of about 280 but then look at that rejection back down and unfortunately I added up there for the break of three and then we rejected then we did an interesting inverse um kind of Head and Shoulders pattern here and we squeeze back up I got back in for the break through the high and made a little bit but it just it didn't it just didn't really give me that big win or that explosive move I was hoping for so that was Zena nothing super exciting on that took a bunch of trades on it but whatever next one B now bof is kind of interesting because after the move on Zena which I felt like I missed when BF popped up I got in that as it broke 250 right here but as soon as it hit 250 and I was thinking if it hits 250 I'm looking because this just came from two for a move up to three it goes through 275 I add and I'm looking for the squeeze to three it ends up hitting three and I take some profit hits a high of 310 which was good 310 was the high it dips back down but then that was it it didn't hold up and note highest volume candle was red so now at this point at 8:30 I'm like I don't like to see that reversal and it had news right but the news was a little earlier so I had new at 7 starts to squeeze at 8:30 so you know I was like if this is kind of the trend of popping up and reversing I'm going to have to ease off and slow down because I don't want to get caught in a nasty flush uh so then the trades after that after 8:30 I really slowed down I was like you know I just I'm not sure if I'm going to get more I got a small trade on Peggy pegy this is a stock that made a big move last week you might recall um so sort of a dead cap bounce on this one as well actually but had fresh news at 8:35 so it's it is a bit of a bounce but also with a news Catalyst goes from 450 to 6 ended up making $2,200 on that move not bad but again it didn't hold up so now I'm getting sort of even more reaffirmed that I better be you know and I took that one was smaller size and and so I was like you know what we're just moving in the wrong direction then I saw nxu I jumped in this at 57 which is very cheap I don't usually trade these um that that was right here it ends up pulling back I stopped out for a small loss comes back up but I of course didn't hold that for that drop so that's the one that I'm read on it's a little outside my price parameters but smaller size only bought 5,000 shares of that so um lost like 3 cents not a big deal and then had that last trade on sag um coming into vwap a couple more trades on S Zena and then SGD this one um had news and I took with small size made only 366 bucks and at that point I was just like yeah I I don't want to push my luck anymore so then of course you know that's what's funny about that is then efsh makes this huge move and I don't trade it at all I didn't trade it at all it makes this huge move and I get nothing TC also makes a huge move I get nothing so that was kind of surprising I sort of thought you know this trend like we weren't seeing these holding up we weren't going to continue to see bigger and bigger moves and then yeah I don't know so a little bit funny today a couple no news moves actually were better than the ones that had news which is unusual but you know it is what it is so locking up the profit here 21,870 bucks or 780 bucks it's a great day I and you know thank you for the person in on the YouTube comments who said Ross what if you look at your last 90-day average you know you say your daily goal is you know 5,000 a day which it is it's $5,000 a g a day so I'm at four times the daily goal here right my daily average is 6,500 but I set the goal at 5,000 now if we look at last year all of last year my daily goal was $5,000 but how did I do last year $100 daily average I came up short steadily like every every month you know there were a couple of stretches but I just consistently came up short but I set I I didn't want to I couldn't possibly reduce the goal I was like the goal's 5,000 I'm not reducing it that would be admitting defeat I'm not going to do it so the goal is still 5,000 you know um that's what it is and I got stubborn about it but refused to change it now if we look at this year well let's just look at year to date so year to dat I've been averaging I think about 5,000 5500 solid year so I've been hitting the daily goal but in the last 90 days so the comment was Ross what if you just look at the your profit for the last 90 days and use that as your daily goal that way when the Market's colder you kind of reduce the goal and when it's hotter you you increase the goal I said that's not a bad idea so I said well let's check to see what the last 90 days daily average is and that's when I saw a daily average closer to 10,000 for the last 90 days so I thought hm it's interesting should my daily goal right now be 10,000 a day that's double what you know I typically would have and yet uh that's what I've been averaging and of course I've done that today so more then so maybe I should be pushing myself a little bit and thinking about it a little bit more in the shorter you know even just last 30-day context last 30-day average is 15,000 a day and I'm above that today so I think there's something to be said for that you know if you're thinking about sort of performance and trading you know as a performance career in a way I think about like racing ski racing you know when when you're when you're racing skiing you you might have a day where I mean different you're going to have different different um trails that you're doing the Race on right so your best time for one track one Trail is not going to be the same as your best time for another just because they're different they're totally different and then you have weather variables well the weather's terrible you know it's it's it's kind of sleeing it's or the snow's warm it's slushy you're going to be slower so you know you've got these variables that you know every it's going to affect everyone for the most part so if you keep trying to hold yourself to a standard that you achieve during Peak Performance conditions or whatever you're just going to be let down like again and again and on the other hand when things are really hot that is the time to hold yourself a little bit higher so I I don't know I mean I you know I say all that I did ski team when I was um younger but um anyways I don't know I I think that there is something to being a little bit more present with the current market for thinking about what the realistic daily goal is U but I also you know yesterday I was up 6,000 and that was really the best that I could do I didn't feel like I could get much more than that and I don't think it would have been right for me to try to push to get to 10 or 15,000 just because that was my new daily goal so it is somewhat arbitrary you know at the end of the day I'm going to trade like when I hit the daily goal I don't stop trading I'm going to be as aggressive as I can on a day that's hot and I hit the daily goal in my first trade like I did today on S am I going to walk away at 7:05 no no way that's the type of day where I can triple you know or 10x a daily goal potentially we got a couple more good stocks because that's what happened all of a sudden I've got a nice cushion on sag so now I can take more risk on bof and TVGN and I could take more risk on everything across the board I could take bigger size because I know even if I lose I can still walk away at least with my daily goal and that's a really nice position to be in you know I don't I can't take $10,000 of risk on the first trade but if I'm already up 15 grand on the day I could take 10,000 of risk if it pays off and I make 20,000 of profit that was worth it absolutely now when we look at my metrics you could see oh I think I closed that window my profit loss ratio this year um is something that I'm really proud of so this year I've maintained uh one of the best profit loss ratios that I think I've I've ever had for a calendar year so year to date right now profit loss ratio is um $645 average winner five 480 average loser now the accuracy is a little lower this year but the profit loss ratio is better and I like that a lot we look at last year and last year $500 average winners and $600 average losers so the average losers last year were 50% higher and the average winners were more or less I mean they were what was it year to date the average winners were like 10% lower so so you know I I would if I was going to choose one of the other having my winners be 10% higher or having my losers be 50% lower I would definitely want the losers to be less so the big problem last year was the losers were too high it was hurting my profit loss ratio so I had an inverted profit loss ratio losers bigger than winners and although I was right 67% of the time I made less money now I also traded a little bit less average daily volume was lower total number of Trades was probably lower I was at 2200 trades last last year year to date so far this year I'm already at 4,000 so there's been you know and a more than twice the amount of profit so I mean there's just been more opportunity this year which is good um you know if we did January 2022 just out of curiosity um I'll just do to December 31st here so this profit loss ratio $814 winner $900 loser did about a million dollar gross profit but inverted profit loss ratio accuracy 69% but again that profit loss ratio now 2021 had some record-breaking days in 2021 that was when we had GameStop average winners again 2200 which is a huge number average losers 2500 inverted profit loss ratio just slightly but inverted and even back in 2020 let's look at 2020 the best year of my entire career um that's where we get back to a positive profit loss ratio $1600 average winners $1,500 average losers and 70 almost 72 71 plus percent accuracy that was my high high Watermark I may not ever get back to that or it may not be for 5 10 15 more years before we have a market that has that level of volatility and then you go back to 2019 which was like the Comm before the storm 2019 was a really slow year and profit loss ratio there $800 ,100 accuracy 70% $445 000 in profit right and there weren't as many opportunities this was this was all sort of pre-pandemic 565,000 1,000 1,000 one:1 profit loss ratio 68% so you know I mean I I look at the this data quite a bit and um you know just helps me kind of better understand what I'm doing that's working what's not working and what I feel right now is working uh quite well is my strategy of starting the day with smaller size and then increasing once I have profit and if I don't have profit not increasing size so although I've had a couple bigger losses this year this one was back in um February I think it was um really got smoked on this one you know we had one of these stocks that just all of a sudden started spiking up and I was like here we go and then it did a full round trip just unbelievable so you know whatever it happens but um but in any case um you know this year for the most part I've been able to keep those losses um Tighter and certainly if we look at well let's look at like May yeah may you know we take out that one big loss that's even better July yeah so it's pretty solid so anyways um you know continue to focus on the metrics this sort of helps guide me to what I need to do the time of day I need to trade what's working what's not working and um you know I'm I'm hopeful that we continue to see this this hot Market um you know Prevail I mean this has been six these days have been among the top 15 you know top 20 highest revenue or you know highest profit days for me of of the year right I mean this has been really these these days have made a huge dent in the year this is my year to date so well actually no year to date would be I don't know if it'll show me the whole year to date um it only goes back 90 days but anyways you get the idea things are starting to really pull away another Green Day today so let's keep it up all right so thank you guys for tuning in I hope you download the five pillars of stock selection and I'll see you um as always for the next episode reminder trading is risky my results aren't typical so take it slow manage your risk and always practice in a simulator before you put real money on the line