Bitcoin's Monthly Signal Just Fired: +146% Within 12 Months transcript

And I want you to look at the Krown pivots indicator because Bitcoin has officially closed above that last lower high. And we're calling it right now as a trending lower high reclaim. That is effectively what the Krown pivots is showing as of right now. And anytime Bitcoin has reclaimed that last lower high in its history, which by the way, there's only six previous times, it's led to a very predictable result over the next six months to a year.

If you can go back to 2023, you can see this one right here. Bitcoin reclaims it about three months later after a little bit of a correction. And then it was up and off to the races soon after that for basically like the next year and a half. Of course, the one before that was the lower high reclaim back from February of 2020, reclaimed it much later on about six months later in July of 2020, and then up into the, up and off into the races as well.

And of course you can look at previous attempts from that as well. And we've seen very, very similar results. So I'm gonna go directly into our study here. I've gone over all of those previous ones. And we have seen something that, well, I think is rather interesting. If we look for the next six months because it's happened six times, it has always been a green period, every fucking time. Even if we look at just three and six months out, typically green period are always a green period as well.

In fact, if we look at the median returns for those periods, respectively, three, six and 12 months, well, three months out, median return, about 22 and a quarter percent, six month median return. return is just over 82 % and the yearly return 12 months out. Well, median return here, I don't necessarily know if I'm going to be betting on this myself, but hey, I wouldn't be fucking complaining personally, Bitcoin return, almost 46%.

Again, these are medians and we are looking at, you know, previous historical price action, which in some cases, you know, we've seen some pretty massive outliers. That's why I'm using a median here, not a straight up average, but just kind of blindly looking at the chart. You know, generally when Bitcoin has reclaimed that last lower high, any pullbacks are for buying, as we have been saying, you know, consistent with all of our other major setups, to be fair, and Bitcoin just generally sets in a nice upside move.

And is that what we have going on right here? Well, perhaps yes. I think that the quarterly bullish engulfing dong also helps solidify that case here too, because Bitcoin did indeed close above the Q2 high that it did it by just a hair, you know, a little bit less than a thousand bucks, which barely shows up on a chart like this. But yes, indeed, it does matter. And Bitcoin also reclaimed all major moving averages on the quarterly timeframe here too.

And along the way, it has set in yet another higher low, according to the Krown Pimp, the indicator. By the way, I do need to take a little bit of a break here because I do have some major announcements, honestly, and it certainly does matter for people who have indicators on trading view. If you've heard recently, there's been a lot of major issues with trading view. They came out recently with a new plan that they're going to like charge people 30 bucks extra for invite only scripts, things like this.

Then now they're saying everyone has to move over to their trading view marketplace in order to do indicators there. But the problem with trading view marketplace is that they do not offer lifetime options. For indicators you can only buy it on like a yearly or monthly subscription, which it look if you're anything like me I fucking hate subscriptions. Okay, if I can buy things straight up I just do it because ultimately it's it's gonna be cheaper, you know more long-term So what we're gonna do here until November 1st when those changes are enacted or at least it seems like they really will do This I mean as far as I know that does seem to be I think it's fucking crazy plan I don't think that they've talked to many people about this but yeah, it seems like they're going ahead with that So what we're gonna do here is we are gonna offer a 20 % discounted period from now until the end of October They have confirmed or at least their team has confirmed to me that all Indicators bought previous to November 1st will be grandfathered and you won't have to worry about your access ever be taken away or anything like this After that, however, I don't know if we're gonna be able to offer that again.

Maybe we have to look at a different venue I don't know if realistically right now like they're just there's really honestly no good competitors trading view That's really what sucks about this whole space Even as bad as trading view is it is still the best option unfortunately, but yes in in observance of that We are gonna offer 20 % off of literally everything in our teachable school in the link description below The code is a lifetime in all capital.

It's just like you see right there It's literally lifetime all one word just like the great gym chain by the way all one word all capital is gonna get you 20 % off of all of the Products and services in the teachable link description below and again, I don't we're we're gonna end this on November 1st Basically, we don't really have any other chance unless the people want to fucking pay, you know, 30 bucks for fucking scripts It's just ridiculous man But whatever anyways, that's there for you.

I also sent an email as well. Look, I know that for some people is just not relevant. So if you know, if that's you, feel free to just scroll ahead. But of course, if you are interested in indicators, it's probably the best time to do it because it'll be the cheapest and maybe even the last time that we can even realistically do this. Anyways, let's now move on and I want to get into the next chart right here. So let's go back to our nice little, yes, our nice little charts right here.

And we can see on the monthly timeframe that Bitcoin has indeed seen the monthly, uh, the monthly stochastic also to get the percent K, which is that cyan line right here above 80 for the first time, you know, in many years, actually since April of 2023. And it's, and it's also important because it's the first time since going below that 20 read right there as well. So this has happened one, two, three, four previous times in Bitcoin's history.

We can see it on the charts right here and you can just blindly kind of see what happens generally after that. But I've gone ahead and done some stats on top of this too. And I find that these are very much in a line with other things that we've been looking at the monthly stochastic, um, uh, back over 20 reads right here. Well, there are some pretty consistent, you know, returns regarding this. Uh, if we fast forward six months and 12 months, well, at six months, your medium return looking at, you know, 21 or sorry, 18 and a half percent almost, uh, 12 months out about 100, 107 and a half almost, uh, not bad.

Again, that is also rather consistent. What we just saw right here, completely different metric, completely different thing. And this is of course completely different than the seasonality stats that we brought up in yesterday's video and in many, many prior as well. Uh, all of these still very much apply and you can see that different things, different technical indicators, also different seasonality things, also just different stat based setups are all kind of coalescing for very similar read.

Look, over the next 6 to 12 months, the real job here is just to not fuck it up with Bitcoin. Yes, there's going to be some pullbacks. There's probably some very violent, very nasty, very volatile pullbacks at some point. Absolutely yes. You have to expect these sort of things. But long-term, generally expect some upside. Now, there was one instance where Bitcoin actually did have a negative return six months out. That was from May of 2019.

Of course, the Rona dumped half enough to that. It was down about 11.7%. Decent amount, to be fair. Ultimately, if you fast-forwarded 12 months out, it was actually up a decent amount, doubled a percentage. But yes, there have been times where you get some black swans and weird shit happens, but still the long-term trajectory more or less gets set in. And I look at that as a good thing. On top of that, we can go ahead here and look at the monthly MACD.

Haven't really been bringing the MACD that much on these videos. But again, this was one of the indicators that actually helped us call the low for Bitcoin. Once it started to lose the downside momentum on the MACD histogram here, which is notified by these gray bars, that was a damn good signal that Bitcoin more or less had the lows in. In fact, that even happened as far back as April of this year. And realistically, from April, the low in February was more or less the same low as what we got in June anyway.

So in terms of price, close enough, I would say. But even then, we've seen a very consistent deceleration on the monthly histogram right here. And generally, that's a good thing as well. If we put that in a context of history, we can go over here and do a nice little test. So what typically happens when you see this sort of a setup, again, I'm looking at just effectively a recovery setup for the monthly MACD. If we fast forward six months out in 12 months out again, we're looking at some pretty fucking crazy returns They at least in my humble opinion six months out 79 % median return 12 months out 144 % medium return if you even fast forward one month out median return has been 32 % I mean that would be a real fucking October up to Uptober October here Look, I would be complaining.

I don't think that's what's gonna happen necessarily, but ultimately We are seeing the recovery and again I look at this as a good thing and and again just coalesce it with all the other major so this will be gone over Of course the quarterly set up we went over this one yesterday But again, just generally when we see these sort of things they lead to more good things And I also want to go into some interesting things here too with Kalshi because now that we have the monthly open for October I do want to look at what they're pricing for these contracts right here For Bitcoin for how high Bitcoin gets in October They are they're gonna oh wow that just actually went up decently so right before I recorded this video Bitcoin was trading about like eighty four thousand Five hundred and and they were gonna give you like forty seven I think it was like forty seven cents per contracts for yes above ninety thousand bucks in October I do think again pertaining to the stats that is more likely than not as we've gone over many times Right now I mean that's not as appealing right here, but of course, you know previously Like literally just fucking 20 minutes ago.

It was giving you about it more than a 2x payment if you're gonna be wrong on that one I've already made my bets For the rest of the year to be fair But the other one that's interesting here is how low will Bitcoin go in October as well below eighty thousand bucks They are actually giving you a if you say no to give you more than double payout right there as well. Same thing for below 77,500. I mean, that's 41%. So to be fair, I mean, not as appealing, but I would go as far to say that for this next quarter, really, I don't expect anywhere below $75,000.

At least I'd be quite surprised that happened. Not impossible, obviously, but I would certainly be surprised that happens. And personally, I'd be surprised if Bitcoin really got any much lower than where the red 5 EMA is on the quarterly time from right here. Remember reconnecting with that? Super, super, super common. That is, as of right now, $80,440. You could have an overshoot there for sure. And maybe it gets a little bit below $80,000.

So the $80,000 one might be a little bit too not nice right there. However, if Bitcoin comes down a little bit more, well, that might become appealing, to be fair, just in terms of the actual probabilities. But that 77,500 one for this next month, in my opinion, probably good. I'm not going to bet it on myself. I'm not going to put my money up where my mouth is on that particular one. I've already put my money where my mouth is, of course, on the yearly ones, the annual ones pertaining to the end of this year.

I am betting on Bitcoin getting above $100,000 and $90,000, respectively, before the end of this year. I've already shown those bets previously. They're actually not on the board right here, which is bizarre. But yes, anyways, I should let you know if you want to join in on some Kalshi fund, you can use the shill link in the description below for Kalshi. If you trade literally just $25 in trading volume, they will give you up to $500 in trading credit.

Again, I use Kalshi as just fun money playing around. There are some people, however, that actually do have real strategies for Kalshi. They even offer perps now, too, for like - up, you know, Bitcoin, which is kind of cool. But yeah, the way that I look at it, just kind of fun money. If you want to play along, you know, feel free to use it. If not, all good, not going to be mad, but yes, that actually does get you some, of course, benefits.

If you are going to, you know, go ahead and I don't know, fucking God forbid you spent on sports there or culture. Goddamn, man. A great way to just, you know, toss the fucking money into the toilet, I suppose. But yes, with all that in mind, I'm still looking at Bitcoin as good long-term value here. We're seeing the close that we wanted to see. So it's really just continuation of all the analysis that we've been building up over the past month, month and a half now, since Bitcoin really started to break out and work its way around.

Other than that, Bitcoin's October high above 95,000 bucks. Yeah, you can buy that for 22 cents right now. I don't know if I'd buy that. I think that's a little bit, I mean, obviously it's lower probability, but I just don't see ads compelling things that suggest it's going to get that high in this month. We've seen a couple of things that suggested May, but I wouldn't put my money on that personally, although, hey, that is appealing.

You'll get paid out nearly five to one with 22 cents contracts right there. Bitcoin above 90,000 bucks. I've already bet on that. But for October, again, this was recorded literally 20, 30 minutes ago, or I made this 20, 30 minutes ago. So it's that 51 cents at that point. It'd be nice if it came back down there. That'd actually be quite appealing for October, at least in my opinion. Bitcoin above 100,000 bucks, giving you 10 cents for that.

So you get paid out 10 to one, basically. Not bad. I think that's a low probability one. Probably just wasting your money there. But hey, that's just me. Other than that, like I said, that Kalshi, if you trade $25, you'll get up to $500 in free trading credit. Of course, that is a limited, what's called a limited time offer that they're doing right now. It used to be $50, so it was double that that you had to trade. Now it's just 25.

Again, suit yourself with however you're gonna do that, if at all. Other than that, I think it's time for me to put my own money where my mouth is and do my daily DCA for the old coins here on Coinbase. So I'm gonna buy 100 dirt peanuts, a Bitcoin, and we're gonna buy it. All right, we'll be at 75 bid right there. Nice. Again, always explaining Coinbase because Coinbase is the cheapest place to buy spot Bitcoin from a bank account, at least with my affiliate link in the description below.

Gets you 80 % off your spot trading fees, plus 10 % off your derivative trading fees, and options coming this motherfucking month and I just got filled, which is really, really cool. Of course, international clients already have options, so congratulations and fuck you. You can also trade stocks there and well, you can even do perps there as well in case you didn't know. But yeah, I'm very much looking forward to that with options because I'll be able to show like live positions once again.

Should be really, really cool on a regulated exchange. Don't have to worry about shit. That'll be amazing, incredible. I'm very, very, very much looking forward to that thing. Other than that, I'll just go back here and give an invalidation really quickly. As far as invalidation goes for Bitcoin, it really hasn't changed over the past few weeks here, going back to September 19th, that is. Again, trending higher low in the six hour timeframe, showing about 80,000 bucks, as long as Bitcoin's closing up there, even on a daily timeframe, like.

I don't have any issues with this current price action. Even on the two-day timeframe, remember Bitcoin's been using that two-day 200 -summon average to bounce off of it. Realistically, we don't really expect much of a deviation from there, if at all. A variable could be that, again, related to yesterday's stats for October, if this is going to be a positive month, we might see that low, the low of the month, in these first few days, might even already be in.

I don't know if I'd say that just yet. Remember, we still do have the six-hour corrective setup, which technically has not been fully fulfilled just yet. It got real fucking close, though, man. It was about $50 away. Yeah, literally $50 away from being filled there. Technically, we'd like to see that one filled, but might just have to say close enough is close enough. In this particular case, we shall see, I suppose.

Other than that, I think it's a good place to maybe sign it off. Again, we'll be holding this nice discounted period for all lifetime indicators until the end of this month of October. From there, like I said, I really don't know what's going to happen. I can assure you that people who already bought will absolutely be able to retain their access on Tradingview. I have got that confirmed in writing from their team. As far as offering lifetime accident indicators from there, maybe we pick it up from venue.

I don't know. Right now, there's just not any good competitors, unfortunately. I'll update you as I learn new things. Hopefully, I'm able to speak with them, again, a little more deeply soon, too. Yeah, I'll let you know as I know. Anyways, other than that, I think it's a good place for me to be leaving off on this particular video. I would like to wish you the best of best as always. Take care, much love, and see you hopefully tomorrow, maybe even for a live stream.