Futures General Commentary - July 20, 2026 transcript

Good morning folks. How are you? I hope you had a nice weekend. Um, if you haven't looked at the economic calendar for the week, it's kind of anemic. We don't have very much uh data being a catalyst for uh volatility injections this week. So, uh, there's an absence or vacuum of any kind of news today. That leaves us with what we have here. And we spent most of the time gyating around inside the TGIF 20 to 30% range from last week's range there.

But, uh, we came up and just swiped above that little high here. We're building in a premium opening relative to the regular trading hours opening range. And if we look at that from this. Okay. So we have settlement here on Friday. We'll set this up as black chart. Do it with dashes. Right. So that'll be in the middle. Make it a little bit bigger. She always enjoys that. So go into electronic trading hours again. So there is our previous settlement from Friday.

And if we were to open here, obviously we have another hour and 20 minutes before that would happen. What I'm watching for, um, I don't have really hard bias one way or the other. So it's kind of like a wait and see what we get. Watch the opening range. uh give it till 10:00 and if nothing's obvious then um simply submit yourself to the 10:00 hour silver bullet which is the first of everybody got aiming for a relative equal low or where it's not made jagged anything smooth these lows right here I I like those because not only is it smooth and we went sideways and then out after hitting this order block not order block I'm sorry Um, bullish F gap.

I didn't get much sleep last night. It was a good night, but I didn't get much sleep. So, it rallied up, took out buy side here, here on a shallow basis. I'd like to see it leave it like that, come down during the opening range, clear the liquidity out, come back to Friday's settlement, maybe even extend a little bit past this in here. See how it's a little it's even though this one went a little bit slightly lower. You see the low 79.75 and then the low on this one is 71250.

So that Wait a minute. Am I doing that for you? I'm trusting my own eyes here. the low 709 three/4ers. Yeah, this is low. I'm looking at these here and thinking to myself, wait a minute, I didn't read the the numbers correctly. So on those old old man movements, right? [laughter] So there's sellside resting willow here. It's a minor sellside liquidity pool and come down here. do a full reprint back to uh Friday's settlement price.

Overshoot a little bit if it needs to. It doesn't need to really, but if it does, that'd be nice to see it. Then reject then whatever fair gap that lays in the week of that. We can use that and interpret that as a potential bullish inversion fair gap to make a much more meaningful run above here. And again, this is all assuming that this high stays as it is. And there's nothing stating that that's going to happen. It's something I would like to see left in price action.

So I we're we're looking at forecasting, predicting the future, that type of stuff, you know, the mumbo jumbo stuff. Um then if you can gravitate back to that hourly uh bio balance hall side efficiency from last Wednesday at noon Eastern time. Um then if we can get above that these relative equal highs over here got a feeling. Got a feeling about it folks up here. See that? That's just a little too smooth for my liking.

Okay. So, in a perfect world, we don't need that for right now. We don't need this right now. In an ideal perfect scenario, I'd like to see this be this week's draw on liquidity. I don't have to be right about this, but this is something that because we have no news, I'm just looking at what could potentially materialize. I'd like to see something like this. I come down here, hit that, and then work towards going up there.

And it's kind of like a market maker buy model basically. smart money reversal accumulation, low risk buy accumulation and then whatever drops down in here, you know, that could be the first stage accumulation and then use this as a reclaimed bullish fair value. You can't see it on the 15, but on the hourly I showed you last week. And then um I guess we'll see what we get. I I don't want to have too much of a long-winded video here overseas in the Middle East.

Obviously, we have um crude oil. Take a look at this to a daily. So, you remember I gave you this gap in here. We went right down into that. closed it perfectly. Rallied above it. Came back down in Bal sell efficiency. Okay. Uh smaller uh breaker. Look at it on a 4 hour and or a 1 hour chart. You'll see a bullish breaker there confirming that also there and rallies up and goes right into this little inefficiency. I thought that was kind of cute.

I was looking at it this morning. I f first woke up. That was a whole lot more than that. 24,000. Um, so yeah, we are able to find our way up into this. And if we can get above it, okay, if we can get above that, then you see these two highs right here. That's a little too clean for me. And obviously over here. So, if things start to heat up, start getting a little more violent, as I stated uh months ago, you for instance, let's just say they they drop a tactical nuke.

It doesn't have to be a big nuke, just a tactical nuke. This is going straight up above $200 a barrel. Just listen. That's the only thing I'm doing is listening for that or to appear in the the headlines on social media. tactical nuke used in Iran or them using it on say our chosen ally. Let's put it that way. So here here these two levels are event driven based on the exchange increasing between the countries that are at odds with one another. this area in here.

Volume balance here. Volume balance there. So, we have a bullish suspension block. So, I'd like to see it make an attempt to get down in there and just bump below that low and that low right there. It doesn't need to come all the way back down. I'd prefer it actually didn't do that. Uh but if things get really hot, it doesn't need to do that at all. It could just start ripping higher. Uh we have This here have volume and balance suspension block hybrid type thing.

If we get above that, this should act as diversion array. So its original utilization is sellside delivery. That means it's created with movement going lower. So in a bearish market, it would act as a premium rate as you see it do here and then here and then down. We went and I actually outlined all that stuff beforehand. The market if it can find its footing above this, we want to see it act as a discount array. And once we get outside of it, the lower half here, if we extended it out, for instance, we wouldn't want to see the bodies in the lower half and then start to see it move higher.

Okay? So, nothing in here warrants lower prices on crude oil. Okay? It's we're going into a seasonal tendency where all the energies usually start to go up around the first week of July going into October. And you think you that October should be where all the energy prices should go up from a seasonal supply and demand factor because in commodities there there are real supply and demand factors. Stocks and futures and stuff like there's really no supply and demand factor.

It's just the a pursuit to find someone that's going to pay more than you. [laughter] That's that's all it is is the hot potato uh scenario. Um and crude oil because it's a a commodity that's used and it's the lifeblood of most things in the industrial complex. They they are required like you heat your home like I use propane. Uh if you don't use propane you may be using natural gas. Okay. So, uh, one or the other. Either way, usually the summer months in the first week of July, all of the large companies that you get your fuel from, okay?

Like I have a delivery twice a month for propane. And in the winter time, it's once like every six weeks in the summertime. But, uh, they have to have their supply to be able to to meet your your demand. Okay. So they build up their stockpile of supply by buying up the energy like heating oil, unlited gas, um natural gas. Those prices tend to go up first week of July going into October. And now in October, the general public would think, okay, now it's probably a good time to buy that because it's going to get cold.

No. large conglomerates have to buy that stuff before the coal months get here. So, they're buying it at technically what it's considered the lower prices and then go back through history and you'll see that generally prices tend to go up. Not all the time. We've we've recently had some some uh effects of military tensions and whatnot. And you can see look over here on the lefth hand side. You probably already caught this on your chart. like wait a minute.

He said first week of July usually goes up and yeah see this and then we just drifted down. Well, we weren't at war then. Okay, we weren't we weren't doing those types of things. We were saber rattling and whatnot, but then we went into that scenario this year and then rallied up. So we have a seasonal tendency and you can actually see how there's the first week of July and we've rallied since. Okay. So if I were to scroll back and give you another perspective of here's another July right first week is right there.

Okay. It creates a short-term high and it starts dropping down and into October. So there's two two times that that seasonal tendency doesn't materialize in price action. But if it's not materializing, it's actually bearish. So in other words, if if you can't see the price run higher when it should be seasonally going higher, it's very strong indication that we're likely to keep going lower unless some kind of event like we've just seen this year.

Um, another here's another previous year. Uh, July, first week of July, right here, rallies up and going into the end of September, rolling into October, and there's your high. Okay, so this is a that's a classic depiction and that's why some people, you know, especially if you're a brand new trader or you listen to people pretending to know something about the markets when they're really a neophyte themselves, um they'll say, "Oh, seasonal tendencies don't work." Well, it's a tool, okay?

It's kind of like wherever you are in the world ge you geographically with your time of year that is the coolest months would you expect extreme heat? No. Because seasonally it's not expected. Like for instance in July here in the United States on the east coast of of United States we don't expect to see snow. something significantly wrong. [laughter] If we're getting a blizzard and snowfall in Maryland in July, there's something definitely wrong.

Okay. So, vice versa. We don't expect a very hot and humid day in January where I live. So, there they're seasonal tendencies. Now, there are some times where in the spring of like April, we've had snow showers and snowstorms and we've had a blizzard before. So, some things can be a little bit, I guess, contrary to what the seasonal tendency is, but it's such a farfetched, you know, it's not likely to happen. Let's say it that way that the probabilities of it happening. so insignificant, it's better to bet on it not occurring in an extreme during a seasonal tendency than it is to assume it will.

Okay? So, listening to people that don't really have a whole lot of experience or they just recently started trading or they just recently started following somebody and they're paritting them and they don't know what they're doing either, it can tend to uh trip you up. So, that's why you have to do your own research. Let's scroll back a little bit more, find see if there's another one. Uh here's one first week of July and we trade down into the October.

So seal seasonal intensity seasonal tendency, excuse me, did not materialize that year and it's off of the heels of all this big runup during the COVID stuff. Okay. Um here we are. First of July, we trade down into August and then we get a rally up into October. So, there's a little bit of deferment there. Didn't quite run away that quickly. And another year back, this is when we just came out of a sub. We there. We'll just call that zero.

So that was $0 for a barrel of crude oil. And we went down below that like to the tune of like $40 negative. So the the drillers, the the companies that were drilling the oil out of the the ground, they were actually paying people to come and just pick it up. Now imagine that. Imagine that. you went to the grocery store and the grocery store said, "Look, we'll pay you to take all this food off the shelf because we have too much of it and more is coming in and we just can't handle it." That's the equivalent of it.

So, because of this event, that's why we had the destabilization of the seasonal tendencies. Nobody knew what to do. Nobody knew. And in fact, I I I said thing. I was like, "Uh, I don't know for certain what it's going to do because it did this, but I was calling for $13 and $11 a barrel. back here and nobody could have saw this coming. I didn't see it coming. But because of that, it was a shell shock to everyone. And the only thing I said was is, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if eventually they work us back up into these highs here and then gravitate back towards $100 a barrel because they want it there.

That that's where they want it. and we went above 100 and and now we're just talking about history now. I just kind of like want to preface it by saying all these seasonal tendencies tend to agree when there's other factors and we have a wartime scenario and we have the two major straits in that area that a large percentage of the global oil production and travel and shipping goes through both of those arteries of waterway. the straight of her moose and the other one I can't remember off the top of my head what it is but it's kind of like putting the death grip on delivery.

Now it's going to cause prices to go up. I don't think we're out of the water in terms of the impact. You know, I think that this whole run up here and then drop down um may be the beginning of a nice nice big bull market again. And it might be one of those bull markets where it just gaps so far ahead. Either you're already in or you miss most of the safest entry. And I don't really want to say the word safe in that regard, but it's a very event driven market right now.

I personally don't have the 20-year-old nerve in me to create it and put any kind of real significant size on it. Uh the volatility in it already caused options to be you overvalued. They're expensive. Um so I'm watching it because I think it's likely to start moving higher again. It went into our level here and it's supported this and we come back out here. So if this turns to inversion was created with sellside delivery.

So we're trading up into here. One would expect if it's bearish this should start to fall out of bed. I don't think it's that right now. I could be wrong. It could humble me in front of all of you and say, "Nope, we're going to go lower." Okay, but I'm waiting to see if it trades out of that, comes back up and uses it as a stepping stall, a rung on the ladder to take us up into this one. And then we'll see if this one turns into an inversion fair value gap.

Okay. So, I just toss that in there. No extra charge. I got a lot of questions and comments about you. Talk about crude oil. Talk about crude oil. Um, we'll uh gold up real quick. Gold has that sell side. I I think that we're probably going to swipe that. You know, we hit our other targets in here. And little too smooth here. Nothing uh terribly exciting about wanting to go long yet. Just remember, the old man told you it'd be univilized if you didn't take some profits up in here.

And then we look for it to fail here and here and there and there and pull back into that and then drop. That's the last bit of business right here. If we really lose ground on it over here, long long long term long term, but I'm not I'm not going to try to push that narrative right now. It's not as I'm not as strong in that regard as I am at Bitcoin's going to zero. [sighs] So, uh, you had to talk that stuff, don't you?

You always want to sell the FUD. Look at this dog. He's not doing anything. I tell you what, you see I I see all the time these goobers online either retweeting somebody or typing themselves. You're stupid if you sell your Bitcoin. You know, that's what they tell you when you're left holding the bag and everybody else got out. You're stupid if you wait just to take the first lifeboat off of a sinking ship. You're stupid if you take that because you know maybe we won't really sink and look how stupid you'll be.

So you wait and more lifeboats are leaving. More lifeboats are leaving. More lifeboats are leaving. And you know there really is some strong support in this area down here. You know I don't think it can go much lower than that. That's a long-term perspective, though. The silver market had a little bit of difficulty as well. And it got down into our other objectives. Just fell short. Look at that. Just fell short of it.

It was more than $60,000. That was an old annotation. So, uh, it almost got all the way down to the low of that. Let's see what the weekly chart is. I think that's what the annotation's based on. Is that a 4 hour you annotate what your ranges are anchored to? I don't know what that is now. Maybe it's just jumped around. I don't know what that is. I have it set to this. I don't I don't know what it is. But there's definitely an inefficiency there.

This technically should be drawn like that. And that. Okay. Go back over here. Turn that off. I'm not sure how Trading View ended up moving that thing around. It's happened before. I think the guys in there messing with my chart. I don't know. I don't have any proof of that. I'm just trying to be facitious. the U. See, let's check out copper.